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CNN Live Today

Interview With Stuart Rothenberg

Aired January 29, 2003 - 11:10   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: We want to look now at how the president's State of the Union message has been received, and joining us to talk about that from Washington and also with some analysis of the speech is Stu Rothenberg. He is a political analyst and editor of the "Rothenberg Political Report" -- good to see you again, Stu.
STUART ROTHENBERG, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Thanks, Leon.

HARRIS: Now, I take it you did like the speech, based upon what I have heard you say. You did like what you heard last night, but we heard, essentially, two speeches.

Let's talk about them. One was the domestic speech, the other one was the speech about making the case about Iraq. Looking at what you heard domestically last night in terms of new policy procedure, policy proposals made by President Bush last night, were you surprised at all that he began with an idea that even some of his supporters said would not even have a chance there on the Capitol Hill, this being the tax cut plan?

ROTHENBERG: Not really no, and you're right, certainly it was two speeches. I think the second part of his presentation really eclipsed the first part, but the fact that he began with the economic package and his plan, I think, shows where the White House feels the important issues are up front for the American public in the near term.

No, I wasn't surprised. Look, he has to deal with the economy. He has to avoid the problems that his father had when he was president, an appearance that, really, he didn't have enough hands-on control on the economy. So I wasn't surprised, and look -- I don't think there were any dramatic changes, reversals, in terms of economic policy. The administration is out there pretty much on a tax cut, and watch it while it is in Congress.

HARRIS: It seemed to me, pretty much, there was something in there for everyone. I was even surprised to hear this proposal about increasing some $10 billion over the next five years for AIDS help in Africa. Any other surprises for you there?

ROTHENBERG: Well, certainly, that was a dramatic proposal as was all this talk about money for hydrogen cars and the environment. I think you're absolutely right. This is something for everybody. We had partial birth abortion and tax cuts for conservatives, we had Medicare and prescription drugs for seniors. We had something for environmentalists, and we had something for internationalists apart from merely a war against Iraq. No, I think it was a very well balanced first part of the speech.

HARRIS: All right. Before we go on to talk about Iraq, let me ask you this: is your gut or have your ears there on the Hill told you anything about whether any of that has a chance of flying on the Hill?

ROTHENBERG: Well, some of it has a chance. The reaction on his environmental proposal was certainly bipartisan, and just a wild positive reaction.

Obviously, there are significant ideological and partisan differences on the tax package, and the president did not minimize or change or overcome those differences with his speech. We're just at the beginning of a long debate on economic policy and the president, I think, has a long way to go before he can win on that.

HARRIS: Well, according to what the White House is saying this morning, we're at the beginning of the final phase on dealing with Iraq. And here's what President Bush -- some of what he had to say last night about Iraq and the case for going to war there.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Before September the 11th, many in the world believed that Saddam Hussein could be contained. But chemical agents, lethal viruses, and shadowy terrorist networks are not easily contained.

Imagining those 19 hijackers with other weapons and other plans, this time armed by Saddam Hussein. Take one vial, one canister, one crate, slipped into this country to bring a day of horror like none we have ever known. We will do everything in our power to make sure that that day never comes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: Now, it seemed to me, and seemed to many who have been talking this morning that may have been the half of the speech that President Bush actually really fully believed in, and may have rehearsed the most.

What do you think of the case he made last night? Did he go far enough to convince enough people that now is the time?

ROTHENBERG: Leon, I was thinking back to the first time I saw a State of the Union where I was in the chamber was January 1970 with President Nixon's State of the Union, and I've been watching State of the Unions since then, obviously, and I don't think I've seen a time of more drama for a State of the Union.

Yes, I think he moved the ball forward more than I actually expect. We were all told this would not be a war speech, but he spent an awful lot of time explaining why the United States must continue to push Saddam Hussein, why we must move toward a war footing.

Yes, I think that he had started to make the case. I expect Secretary of State Powell to do this more over the next week or so, and then I think the president will sometime come to the American public to try to close on this matter, but he went into considerable detail, I thought, and it was as emotional a time as I can recall in one of these State of the Unions.

HARRIS: Yes. If last night was not the time, and many are saying that last night was the time for him to also talk about the costs of doing that, what that's going to mean in terms of safety of Americans here at home, the idea that maybe actually going to Iraq with war on our minds is actually going to cause Saddam Hussein to use some of these terrible weapons, he didn't talk about any of the potential costs that way or financially, as well.

Do you think he should have, or do you think that's going to come?

ROTHENBERG: No, I think that will come. Look, this was not the ultimate, the final speech on war with Iraq. This was a State of the Union in which -- included significant discussions of domestic policy. He will continue, the administration will continue to make the case. We have people saying, Well, we need to delay. Well, there is no time set certain for an invasion. So this is...

(CROSSTALK)

HARRIS: I'm sorry, Stu, to cut you off. We have got some breaking news we have to get to right away. Sorry about that.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired January 29, 2003 - 11:10   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: We want to look now at how the president's State of the Union message has been received, and joining us to talk about that from Washington and also with some analysis of the speech is Stu Rothenberg. He is a political analyst and editor of the "Rothenberg Political Report" -- good to see you again, Stu.
STUART ROTHENBERG, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Thanks, Leon.

HARRIS: Now, I take it you did like the speech, based upon what I have heard you say. You did like what you heard last night, but we heard, essentially, two speeches.

Let's talk about them. One was the domestic speech, the other one was the speech about making the case about Iraq. Looking at what you heard domestically last night in terms of new policy procedure, policy proposals made by President Bush last night, were you surprised at all that he began with an idea that even some of his supporters said would not even have a chance there on the Capitol Hill, this being the tax cut plan?

ROTHENBERG: Not really no, and you're right, certainly it was two speeches. I think the second part of his presentation really eclipsed the first part, but the fact that he began with the economic package and his plan, I think, shows where the White House feels the important issues are up front for the American public in the near term.

No, I wasn't surprised. Look, he has to deal with the economy. He has to avoid the problems that his father had when he was president, an appearance that, really, he didn't have enough hands-on control on the economy. So I wasn't surprised, and look -- I don't think there were any dramatic changes, reversals, in terms of economic policy. The administration is out there pretty much on a tax cut, and watch it while it is in Congress.

HARRIS: It seemed to me, pretty much, there was something in there for everyone. I was even surprised to hear this proposal about increasing some $10 billion over the next five years for AIDS help in Africa. Any other surprises for you there?

ROTHENBERG: Well, certainly, that was a dramatic proposal as was all this talk about money for hydrogen cars and the environment. I think you're absolutely right. This is something for everybody. We had partial birth abortion and tax cuts for conservatives, we had Medicare and prescription drugs for seniors. We had something for environmentalists, and we had something for internationalists apart from merely a war against Iraq. No, I think it was a very well balanced first part of the speech.

HARRIS: All right. Before we go on to talk about Iraq, let me ask you this: is your gut or have your ears there on the Hill told you anything about whether any of that has a chance of flying on the Hill?

ROTHENBERG: Well, some of it has a chance. The reaction on his environmental proposal was certainly bipartisan, and just a wild positive reaction.

Obviously, there are significant ideological and partisan differences on the tax package, and the president did not minimize or change or overcome those differences with his speech. We're just at the beginning of a long debate on economic policy and the president, I think, has a long way to go before he can win on that.

HARRIS: Well, according to what the White House is saying this morning, we're at the beginning of the final phase on dealing with Iraq. And here's what President Bush -- some of what he had to say last night about Iraq and the case for going to war there.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Before September the 11th, many in the world believed that Saddam Hussein could be contained. But chemical agents, lethal viruses, and shadowy terrorist networks are not easily contained.

Imagining those 19 hijackers with other weapons and other plans, this time armed by Saddam Hussein. Take one vial, one canister, one crate, slipped into this country to bring a day of horror like none we have ever known. We will do everything in our power to make sure that that day never comes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: Now, it seemed to me, and seemed to many who have been talking this morning that may have been the half of the speech that President Bush actually really fully believed in, and may have rehearsed the most.

What do you think of the case he made last night? Did he go far enough to convince enough people that now is the time?

ROTHENBERG: Leon, I was thinking back to the first time I saw a State of the Union where I was in the chamber was January 1970 with President Nixon's State of the Union, and I've been watching State of the Unions since then, obviously, and I don't think I've seen a time of more drama for a State of the Union.

Yes, I think he moved the ball forward more than I actually expect. We were all told this would not be a war speech, but he spent an awful lot of time explaining why the United States must continue to push Saddam Hussein, why we must move toward a war footing.

Yes, I think that he had started to make the case. I expect Secretary of State Powell to do this more over the next week or so, and then I think the president will sometime come to the American public to try to close on this matter, but he went into considerable detail, I thought, and it was as emotional a time as I can recall in one of these State of the Unions.

HARRIS: Yes. If last night was not the time, and many are saying that last night was the time for him to also talk about the costs of doing that, what that's going to mean in terms of safety of Americans here at home, the idea that maybe actually going to Iraq with war on our minds is actually going to cause Saddam Hussein to use some of these terrible weapons, he didn't talk about any of the potential costs that way or financially, as well.

Do you think he should have, or do you think that's going to come?

ROTHENBERG: No, I think that will come. Look, this was not the ultimate, the final speech on war with Iraq. This was a State of the Union in which -- included significant discussions of domestic policy. He will continue, the administration will continue to make the case. We have people saying, Well, we need to delay. Well, there is no time set certain for an invasion. So this is...

(CROSSTALK)

HARRIS: I'm sorry, Stu, to cut you off. We have got some breaking news we have to get to right away. Sorry about that.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com