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CNN Live Today

Interview With Middle East Analyst

Aired February 11, 2003 - 10:04   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: We are going to begin, though, with this extraordinarily busy hour on Capitol Hill. Two of the nation's top lawmen are presenting lawmakers today with a post-9/11 progress report. FBI director Robert Mueller and CIA director George Tenet are appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee, and they are there to assess the heightened terror alert, and the U.S. efforts to defuse the threat, and our CNN National Security Correspondent David Ensor is there.
He has got his eyes and ears open, and he joins us now with a look at what is going to happen this morning -- hi, David.

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Leon. Well, as you say, this should be a fascinating, and it could be a rather newsworthy morning. This is the annual worldwide threat report from George Tenet. For the first time, FBI Director Mueller will be there as well.

We expect some pointed questions from the committee, which has a lot of new members, including this new chairman, Senator Pat Roberts, who is just opening the session right now. One of the -- among the questions will be many about Secretary Powell's presentation a few days ago to the United Nations Security Council where he was presenting the intelligence evidence suggesting that Iraq has an ongoing weapons of mass destruction program, and additionally evidence suggesting, in the U.S.'s view, that there may be some connections between Iraq and al Qaeda.

Now that's the controversial part in particular this morning, and there will be questions about that. At the testimony at the U.N., George Tenet sat right behind Powell, sort of as a symbol of the backing that the intelligence community has for what Powell said, but there may be some on the Senate committee today who will try to see if there is any distance between them, given that, in the past, U.S. intelligence officials have frequently expressed skepticism about the evidence suggesting a tie between al Qaeda and Iraq.

Another hot topic is likely to be North Korea. Some Democrats have told me they don't understand why there is so much attention being paid to Iraq and relatively little tension -- and not using the word crisis when it comes to North Korea's apparent plans to restart its nuclear facilities and possibly to move toward having more nuclear weapons. And finally, if that wasn't enough, one of the new members of the committee is Senator Edwards, a candidate for president, and we understand from his staff today that he has some very tough questions for FBI Director Mueller about the quality of the FBI's work in the domestic intelligence gathering area. We are told there may be fireworks on that -- Leon.

HARRIS: That's interesting. Do we expect any surprise revelations to come today, David?

ENSOR: Well, I'm told by aids to Mr. Tenet that, in his testimony, he lays out, basically, the worldwide threat and the threat level is up right now. They don't think there is anything in the testimony that would make capital "N" news. Usually the news comes out in the question and answer period, and it is really up to the senators how closely they want to grill these witnesses.

HARRIS: All right. Good deal. We'll get back to that and to you in just a bit, there David. Thanks much. David Ensor there on Capitol Hill with an eye on those hearings, and as we said, we'll get back to that in just a bit.

But now, let's take a closer look now at the assessment of the terror threats and the nation's intelligence efforts to defeat them. And for that, we turn to Eric Margolis, he is a terrorism analyst who joins us now from our L.A. bureau. He is well-versed in Middle East issues, and he is author of "War at the Top of the World," and he has been a much more than just frequent guest here on the network -- good to see you, Eric. How are you?

ERIC MARGOLIS, AUTHOR, "WAR AT THE TOP OF THE WORLD": Good morning, Leon.

HARRIS: Well, what do you expect to hear at this hearing today, and you heard David there mention possible fireworks coming with some -- perhaps some criticism of the FBI and CIA's efforts domestically here, would you expect anything like that?

MARGOLIS: There will be criticism, I think. There is an inherent institutional problem between the FBI and the CIA in sharing information. In fact, they are two big bureaucracies that don't mesh very well, and even internally they don't move their information around a lot. There are claims that the threat of terrorism has risen. We're, of course, on high alert now here in the United States, and the FBI has come under particular criticism for not pulling up its end.

HARRIS: Yes, but haven't these agencies been working hard over the past few months to change that, and to better streamline that process of sharing information. How would you grade the effort so far?

MARGOLIS: I would give them a good effort. I think channels of communication have been opened. Old ways have been changed. They have been forced to change long-held procedures. I would give the agencies a B so far.

HARRIS: OK. Well, what about the way that the threats that have been assessed at this particular point? Let's talk about al Qaeda. In your mind right now, how do you rank it as a threat against the U.S. right now? MARGOLIS: Al Qaeda remains a serious threat against U.S., both internally and abroad, but al Qaeda's power has been greatly exaggerated in my view. I would still say it probably never had more than 300 people.

HARRIS: Really?

MARGOLIS: But what it has done is it has inspired other anti- American groups, such as the attack in Indonesia, who are now following al Qaeda's lead, but their activities are taking place more internationally, not so much inside North America. So al Qaeda is a serious threat, but we shouldn't overreact.

HARRIS: Well, how does any action military in Iraq, or at least the talk about that affect that situation with the numbers of those who are out there, and where they might actually be?

MARGOLIS: Kick a hornet's nest, you're bound to get stung. I would think that a war on Iraq would create more anti-American groups and cause more attacks on U.S. interests abroad than if we did not attack Iraq. There is a serious threat of this.

HARRIS: How about recent upgrading of the national security status being kicked up a notch to orange. What do you make of that, and the way the information now that we're getting from the government, specific information, about what people should do. Now, we're being told specifically to start stockpiling products within our homes, and to keep duct tape and plastic around, and to find a secret room to go to and whatever. What do you make of that kind of a signal being sent to the American people, and the decisions being made to raise this level right now?

MARGOLIS: Well, it's alarming. First of all, it is due to the impending war against Iraq. There will almost certainly be terrorist attacks against Americans as a result once the military campaign kicks off. Secondly, there has been a lot of communications between suspects that has been picked up, which apparently led to the heightened alert.

Everybody should be vigilant, but -- and hopefully we will not have another terrible event like 9/11. I emphasize that the terrorist attacks that we've seen recently have been amateur rather than professional, and I hope that this continues if we must face them.

HARRIS: So, considering the amateur level, then, of these different groups that have acted recently, would you expect any of them to act, perhaps, not exactly in concert with al Qaeda during this holy period in the Muslim faith, the Hajj and all?

MARGOLIS: I don't think we should overemphasize the Hajj. I think it is sort of like religious profiling. It is certainly a very important time for Muslims, but I don't think would-be terrorist would attack because of the Hajj, but rather because of the impending war with Iraq.

HARRIS: All right. Can we impose upon to you stick around for a while?

MARGOLIS: Yes.

HARRIS: We'd like to have you come back so we can talk some more about this once we dip back into the hearing. Thanks, good deal.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 11, 2003 - 10:04   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: We are going to begin, though, with this extraordinarily busy hour on Capitol Hill. Two of the nation's top lawmen are presenting lawmakers today with a post-9/11 progress report. FBI director Robert Mueller and CIA director George Tenet are appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee, and they are there to assess the heightened terror alert, and the U.S. efforts to defuse the threat, and our CNN National Security Correspondent David Ensor is there.
He has got his eyes and ears open, and he joins us now with a look at what is going to happen this morning -- hi, David.

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Leon. Well, as you say, this should be a fascinating, and it could be a rather newsworthy morning. This is the annual worldwide threat report from George Tenet. For the first time, FBI Director Mueller will be there as well.

We expect some pointed questions from the committee, which has a lot of new members, including this new chairman, Senator Pat Roberts, who is just opening the session right now. One of the -- among the questions will be many about Secretary Powell's presentation a few days ago to the United Nations Security Council where he was presenting the intelligence evidence suggesting that Iraq has an ongoing weapons of mass destruction program, and additionally evidence suggesting, in the U.S.'s view, that there may be some connections between Iraq and al Qaeda.

Now that's the controversial part in particular this morning, and there will be questions about that. At the testimony at the U.N., George Tenet sat right behind Powell, sort of as a symbol of the backing that the intelligence community has for what Powell said, but there may be some on the Senate committee today who will try to see if there is any distance between them, given that, in the past, U.S. intelligence officials have frequently expressed skepticism about the evidence suggesting a tie between al Qaeda and Iraq.

Another hot topic is likely to be North Korea. Some Democrats have told me they don't understand why there is so much attention being paid to Iraq and relatively little tension -- and not using the word crisis when it comes to North Korea's apparent plans to restart its nuclear facilities and possibly to move toward having more nuclear weapons. And finally, if that wasn't enough, one of the new members of the committee is Senator Edwards, a candidate for president, and we understand from his staff today that he has some very tough questions for FBI Director Mueller about the quality of the FBI's work in the domestic intelligence gathering area. We are told there may be fireworks on that -- Leon.

HARRIS: That's interesting. Do we expect any surprise revelations to come today, David?

ENSOR: Well, I'm told by aids to Mr. Tenet that, in his testimony, he lays out, basically, the worldwide threat and the threat level is up right now. They don't think there is anything in the testimony that would make capital "N" news. Usually the news comes out in the question and answer period, and it is really up to the senators how closely they want to grill these witnesses.

HARRIS: All right. Good deal. We'll get back to that and to you in just a bit, there David. Thanks much. David Ensor there on Capitol Hill with an eye on those hearings, and as we said, we'll get back to that in just a bit.

But now, let's take a closer look now at the assessment of the terror threats and the nation's intelligence efforts to defeat them. And for that, we turn to Eric Margolis, he is a terrorism analyst who joins us now from our L.A. bureau. He is well-versed in Middle East issues, and he is author of "War at the Top of the World," and he has been a much more than just frequent guest here on the network -- good to see you, Eric. How are you?

ERIC MARGOLIS, AUTHOR, "WAR AT THE TOP OF THE WORLD": Good morning, Leon.

HARRIS: Well, what do you expect to hear at this hearing today, and you heard David there mention possible fireworks coming with some -- perhaps some criticism of the FBI and CIA's efforts domestically here, would you expect anything like that?

MARGOLIS: There will be criticism, I think. There is an inherent institutional problem between the FBI and the CIA in sharing information. In fact, they are two big bureaucracies that don't mesh very well, and even internally they don't move their information around a lot. There are claims that the threat of terrorism has risen. We're, of course, on high alert now here in the United States, and the FBI has come under particular criticism for not pulling up its end.

HARRIS: Yes, but haven't these agencies been working hard over the past few months to change that, and to better streamline that process of sharing information. How would you grade the effort so far?

MARGOLIS: I would give them a good effort. I think channels of communication have been opened. Old ways have been changed. They have been forced to change long-held procedures. I would give the agencies a B so far.

HARRIS: OK. Well, what about the way that the threats that have been assessed at this particular point? Let's talk about al Qaeda. In your mind right now, how do you rank it as a threat against the U.S. right now? MARGOLIS: Al Qaeda remains a serious threat against U.S., both internally and abroad, but al Qaeda's power has been greatly exaggerated in my view. I would still say it probably never had more than 300 people.

HARRIS: Really?

MARGOLIS: But what it has done is it has inspired other anti- American groups, such as the attack in Indonesia, who are now following al Qaeda's lead, but their activities are taking place more internationally, not so much inside North America. So al Qaeda is a serious threat, but we shouldn't overreact.

HARRIS: Well, how does any action military in Iraq, or at least the talk about that affect that situation with the numbers of those who are out there, and where they might actually be?

MARGOLIS: Kick a hornet's nest, you're bound to get stung. I would think that a war on Iraq would create more anti-American groups and cause more attacks on U.S. interests abroad than if we did not attack Iraq. There is a serious threat of this.

HARRIS: How about recent upgrading of the national security status being kicked up a notch to orange. What do you make of that, and the way the information now that we're getting from the government, specific information, about what people should do. Now, we're being told specifically to start stockpiling products within our homes, and to keep duct tape and plastic around, and to find a secret room to go to and whatever. What do you make of that kind of a signal being sent to the American people, and the decisions being made to raise this level right now?

MARGOLIS: Well, it's alarming. First of all, it is due to the impending war against Iraq. There will almost certainly be terrorist attacks against Americans as a result once the military campaign kicks off. Secondly, there has been a lot of communications between suspects that has been picked up, which apparently led to the heightened alert.

Everybody should be vigilant, but -- and hopefully we will not have another terrible event like 9/11. I emphasize that the terrorist attacks that we've seen recently have been amateur rather than professional, and I hope that this continues if we must face them.

HARRIS: So, considering the amateur level, then, of these different groups that have acted recently, would you expect any of them to act, perhaps, not exactly in concert with al Qaeda during this holy period in the Muslim faith, the Hajj and all?

MARGOLIS: I don't think we should overemphasize the Hajj. I think it is sort of like religious profiling. It is certainly a very important time for Muslims, but I don't think would-be terrorist would attack because of the Hajj, but rather because of the impending war with Iraq.

HARRIS: All right. Can we impose upon to you stick around for a while?

MARGOLIS: Yes.

HARRIS: We'd like to have you come back so we can talk some more about this once we dip back into the hearing. Thanks, good deal.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com