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Political Risks

Aired February 18, 2003 - 11:14   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Back now to the prospect of a second U.N. resolution authorizing war against Iraq that we hear the White House is considering putting together. Now, such a move does have political risks for President Bush as well as for British Prime Minister Tony Blair for that matter. And our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is standing by with more on this. He is in Virginia Beach this morning, Virginia Beach, Virginia, this morning. And are you there because you're snowed in, Bill, or what?
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: I couldn't get out, but I'll be back tomorrow.

HARRIS: OK. There you go. Well, enjoy the time you've got while you're there. Let me ask you this while you're there. Considering what we've seen happen now with this presentation by Hans Blix at the U.N. last Friday and then President Bush is now considering, we're hearing now, the possibility of putting together a second resolution now to address this matter of force being used on Iraq, how do you see all of that playing out together politically, considering the fact that Colin Powell did not really get a warm reception before the U.N. community that President Bush might be trying to form a resolution with?

SCHNEIDER: Well, what happened, Leon, in the past week is that the momentum shifted. Two weeks ago, when Colin Powell testified before the u.n., the momentum seemed to be going in the Bush administration's favor. Powell's testimony was regarded. at least by Americans, as very persuasive, but not by the rest of the world.

Then last week, a number of events happened to shift the momentum against the Bush administration and what a lot of people consider its rush to war. Blix's testimony was very measured and balanced and didn't seem to call for immediate use of force. France and Russia spoke after Blix spoke and in a rare breach of decorum, there was applause for France and Russia in the hallowed chambers of the United Nations Security Council.

Then we had those massive protests, millions of people protesting all over the world, including the United States, this weekend.

Now some other events, Turkey seems to be balking at stationing U.S. troops. The U.S. may have to come up with some more money. The European Union is saying war is not inevitable; force should only be used as a last resort. And Britain is really forcing the United States to try to come up with a second U.N. resolution and see if it can pass the security council. HARRIS: Well, let me ask you about that. What do you think could possibly be cobbled together, in terms of something that would be actually -- I guess that could bring more people on board, considering the way that right now the atmosphere has been a bit spoiled?

SCHNEIDER: Well, the resolution that the United States wants would say that Iraq is in material breach of U.N. obligations and therefore, faces serious consequences. That would enable the United States to, if it feels it's necessary, invade Iraq.

But that, of course, France has already said it would veto that kind of resolution. So they're going to have to soften it, compromise it.; . How far will they go?

There is some talk that the United States and Britain may say look, we're going to withdraw a resolution to show the U.N. that it cannot force us to back down entirely. We'd rather have no resolution than something that's weak and meaningless. That's what happened in the war in Kosovo when NATO started the bombing campaign in Kosovo, Russia threatened to veto a U.N. resolution, so it was withdrawn. The difference there, of course, was the United States and Britain had allies, the whole NATO alliance, in Kosovo. In Iraq, it would have very few other allies.

HARRIS: The allies he does have right now, they're being -- they're having pressure applied on them, the leaders of these nations are having pressure applied on them by their populations.

SCHNEIDER: That's right.

HARRIS: We saw these massive protests over the weekend. This morning, we heard President Bush, he was asked about that in the press conference we had moments ago. I'm not sure if you saw that.

SCHNEIDER: I did.

HARRIS: But he -- you noticed -- to me it seemed as though he was a bit dismissive when he was asked about those protests. He just said something about -- I think he said -- the words that he used were, well, these people do not see Saddam Hussein as a threat to the world's peace and I respectfully disagree with them. That was about all we heard from President Bush on that. Is Mr. Bush making a mistake by not doing more to reach out to these different populations besides just dealing with their leaders or what?

SCHNEIDER: It could be a political mistake. Certainly the allies are facing serious political pressure internally. Certainly Tony Blair is. The latest poll in The Guardian shows that Tony Blair's popularity in Britain has plummeted as a result of his alliance with President Bush. And other leaders around the world with facing the same kinds of popular pressures. President Bush is still on very strong territory domestically in the United States, but Americans still say they don't want to do this alone. So the political pressures are there. and it would be unwise to ignore them. HARRIS: Yes, but again, the support that President Bush has here in the States comes from people who say that well, they're behind it as long as there is a coalition here, a coalition of the willing if you want to use that term. Is there any possibility that this coalition that President Bush has together right now could actually unravel? We're seeing now numbers -- I just read this morning -- 96% of the population of Turkey does not want the U.S. to come over there and establish the presence on the bases there. Could this possibly develop into some sort of unraveling of this coalition of the willing?

SCHNEIDER: Well, that was the threat raised last week after the Blix testimony, The allies, instead of coming to the support of the United States, seemed to be moving in the opposite direction. That's the real danger President Bush is facing. And the leverage that other countries have over the United States is that Americans feel this war may be justified, but we don't want to do it alone. In fact, most Americans say they want, along with Britain, a second U.N. resolution. That is probably why the war hasn't started already, because of the political pressure both inside the United States and from other countries.

HARRIS: Interesting point, as always. Bill Schneider, appreciate your time this morning. Take care. Enjoy your time in Virginia Beach. You're going to be there for awhile.

SCHNEIDER: It's not very beach-like.

HARRIS: Not today, it's not. Covered with snow.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired February 18, 2003 - 11:14   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Back now to the prospect of a second U.N. resolution authorizing war against Iraq that we hear the White House is considering putting together. Now, such a move does have political risks for President Bush as well as for British Prime Minister Tony Blair for that matter. And our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is standing by with more on this. He is in Virginia Beach this morning, Virginia Beach, Virginia, this morning. And are you there because you're snowed in, Bill, or what?
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: I couldn't get out, but I'll be back tomorrow.

HARRIS: OK. There you go. Well, enjoy the time you've got while you're there. Let me ask you this while you're there. Considering what we've seen happen now with this presentation by Hans Blix at the U.N. last Friday and then President Bush is now considering, we're hearing now, the possibility of putting together a second resolution now to address this matter of force being used on Iraq, how do you see all of that playing out together politically, considering the fact that Colin Powell did not really get a warm reception before the U.N. community that President Bush might be trying to form a resolution with?

SCHNEIDER: Well, what happened, Leon, in the past week is that the momentum shifted. Two weeks ago, when Colin Powell testified before the u.n., the momentum seemed to be going in the Bush administration's favor. Powell's testimony was regarded. at least by Americans, as very persuasive, but not by the rest of the world.

Then last week, a number of events happened to shift the momentum against the Bush administration and what a lot of people consider its rush to war. Blix's testimony was very measured and balanced and didn't seem to call for immediate use of force. France and Russia spoke after Blix spoke and in a rare breach of decorum, there was applause for France and Russia in the hallowed chambers of the United Nations Security Council.

Then we had those massive protests, millions of people protesting all over the world, including the United States, this weekend.

Now some other events, Turkey seems to be balking at stationing U.S. troops. The U.S. may have to come up with some more money. The European Union is saying war is not inevitable; force should only be used as a last resort. And Britain is really forcing the United States to try to come up with a second U.N. resolution and see if it can pass the security council. HARRIS: Well, let me ask you about that. What do you think could possibly be cobbled together, in terms of something that would be actually -- I guess that could bring more people on board, considering the way that right now the atmosphere has been a bit spoiled?

SCHNEIDER: Well, the resolution that the United States wants would say that Iraq is in material breach of U.N. obligations and therefore, faces serious consequences. That would enable the United States to, if it feels it's necessary, invade Iraq.

But that, of course, France has already said it would veto that kind of resolution. So they're going to have to soften it, compromise it.; . How far will they go?

There is some talk that the United States and Britain may say look, we're going to withdraw a resolution to show the U.N. that it cannot force us to back down entirely. We'd rather have no resolution than something that's weak and meaningless. That's what happened in the war in Kosovo when NATO started the bombing campaign in Kosovo, Russia threatened to veto a U.N. resolution, so it was withdrawn. The difference there, of course, was the United States and Britain had allies, the whole NATO alliance, in Kosovo. In Iraq, it would have very few other allies.

HARRIS: The allies he does have right now, they're being -- they're having pressure applied on them, the leaders of these nations are having pressure applied on them by their populations.

SCHNEIDER: That's right.

HARRIS: We saw these massive protests over the weekend. This morning, we heard President Bush, he was asked about that in the press conference we had moments ago. I'm not sure if you saw that.

SCHNEIDER: I did.

HARRIS: But he -- you noticed -- to me it seemed as though he was a bit dismissive when he was asked about those protests. He just said something about -- I think he said -- the words that he used were, well, these people do not see Saddam Hussein as a threat to the world's peace and I respectfully disagree with them. That was about all we heard from President Bush on that. Is Mr. Bush making a mistake by not doing more to reach out to these different populations besides just dealing with their leaders or what?

SCHNEIDER: It could be a political mistake. Certainly the allies are facing serious political pressure internally. Certainly Tony Blair is. The latest poll in The Guardian shows that Tony Blair's popularity in Britain has plummeted as a result of his alliance with President Bush. And other leaders around the world with facing the same kinds of popular pressures. President Bush is still on very strong territory domestically in the United States, but Americans still say they don't want to do this alone. So the political pressures are there. and it would be unwise to ignore them. HARRIS: Yes, but again, the support that President Bush has here in the States comes from people who say that well, they're behind it as long as there is a coalition here, a coalition of the willing if you want to use that term. Is there any possibility that this coalition that President Bush has together right now could actually unravel? We're seeing now numbers -- I just read this morning -- 96% of the population of Turkey does not want the U.S. to come over there and establish the presence on the bases there. Could this possibly develop into some sort of unraveling of this coalition of the willing?

SCHNEIDER: Well, that was the threat raised last week after the Blix testimony, The allies, instead of coming to the support of the United States, seemed to be moving in the opposite direction. That's the real danger President Bush is facing. And the leverage that other countries have over the United States is that Americans feel this war may be justified, but we don't want to do it alone. In fact, most Americans say they want, along with Britain, a second U.N. resolution. That is probably why the war hasn't started already, because of the political pressure both inside the United States and from other countries.

HARRIS: Interesting point, as always. Bill Schneider, appreciate your time this morning. Take care. Enjoy your time in Virginia Beach. You're going to be there for awhile.

SCHNEIDER: It's not very beach-like.

HARRIS: Not today, it's not. Covered with snow.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com