Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Live Today

Who is the Front-Runner?

Aired February 19, 2003 - 11:05   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Earlier last hour, we were watching as Congressman Dick Gephardt did come out and make his announcement that he is going to be joining the crowd of Democrats now who are going to be running for president, and our senior political analyst Bill Schneider has been listening to the Gephardt news conference since we stepped away to get to the Ridge press conference, and he joins us now live.
Well, any surprises from what you heard there, Bill?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, he did not get to international affairs until the very end of his remarks. It's pretty clear that he's running on one issue, and that's jobs, the economy. He said I'm not in this fight for my own job, I'm in this fight for your jobs. He said his single purpose is to revive the failing economy.

Mr. Gephardt talked about a fourth way. He said the traditional left-wing way was government handouts. The right-wing way of this president is tax cuts for the few. Clinton's incremental steps were supposed to be a third way. He says his is a fourth way, major steps to give people the tools they need for self-reliance, and he talked in some detail about his plan to ensure everyone health care and to create pension plans that they can keep for their entire lives.

HARRIS: Now, going into it, we talked about -- I quipped about the fact that there aren't very many Democrats aren't running now, but give us a look, if you can, Bill, this field right now is pretty wide open right now. How many Democrats are we talking about now being in this whole party now?

SCHNEIDER: Well, would you believe eight who have indicated that they intend to run, either by declaring themselves candidates, or saying they're forming an exploratory committee. Look at that mob there -- you've got John Kerry, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, now Dick Gephardt, Dennis Kucinich, another congressman, Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont, civil rights activist Al Sharpton, and former Senator Carol Moseley-Braun. Plus three additional Democrats who are thinking about running, Florida Senator Bob Graham, Wesley Clark, a general who was a former supreme commander of NATO, and, remember him, Gary Hart. He was in the 1989 race 15 years ago along with Dick Gephardt. How is that for a crowd?

HARRIS: There you go. Now, let's talk about a couple of these names, if we can. Carol Moseley-Braun, former senator, and Dennis Kucinich, the former mayor of Cleveland, Ohio, and also now, current congressman, let's talk about them, because it's very interesting to see their names come in, considering the fact that both of them pretty much have had to deal with scandal in their past, and to see them coming out and going for the top job is fairly interesting.

But there's lots of talk about Senator Braun right now, and the fact that she may getting into this race, or she may be encouraged to get in this race, to neutralize the effect of Al Sharpton being in the race. What do you hear about that?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you hear lots of gossiping rumors. I don't know if anybody has a foundation, but there are African-American and other Democratic leaders who do not want Al Sharpton to become the voice of the African-American constituency in the Democratic Party, as, for the most part, Jesse Jackson has been when he ran for president in the 1980s. They're concerned about that.

And some are saying -- and I don't hear any foundation for it -- that Carol Moseley-Braun, the former senator, has been urged to run so that Al Sharpton will have some competition from the African-American vote, and of course she's the only woman in the race, so she has an angle there to get not just African-American women, but women of all races, so we don't know if any of that is true, but she has been elected many times locally in Cook County, Illinois, and did serve as the only African-American woman ever elected to the United States Senate for one term.

HARRIS: All right, with that in mind, considering that she's coming from Illinois, I have to show you this picture. Have you seen this already? This is from an event over the weekend, where she came out in Iowa to announce that she's going to be running. That shot there did not look as though there's very many people beating their way to her door right now.

SCHNEIDER: Well, Leon, let's be charitable. There was a snowstorm in Iowa. Now, they probably know how to deal with snow in Iowa better than we do know how to in Washington.

Nevertheless, it was a bit embarrassing that there wasn't a huge crowd of people.

Carol Moseley-Braun, Dennis Kucinich, Al Sharpton and, to some extent, Howard Dean, they're all competing for the same left constituency in the Democratic Party. They're all talking very much about their position in a potential war with Iraq, so you've got a crowded field just to compete for the antiwar vote. They are the four most anti-war candidates right now.

That antiwar constituency, which is becoming angrier and more vocal in the Democratic Party, may be drawing some of these candidates into the race. They see a vote there, and they want it.

HARRIS: Yes, and the thing is, from what we're understanding and what we're hearing, there may actually be even more names coming in the race, as you showed there a moment ago, those three pictures, I think it was Senator Bob Graham, as well as General Wesley Clark.

What is it about this particular climate, this particular landscape right now that is so inviting for so many Democrats to jump in right now? Does President Bush seem to be that vulnerable, or are Democrats all of a sudden just getting that bold or what?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I would say, number one, no front-runner. If Al Gore had run, I think some of these people may have decided not to, certainly Joe Lieberman. But with this crowd of candidate, nobody really stands out as the front-runner, the formidable favorite, the person to beat. The polls show Joe Lieberman a slight favorite, with a little bit of a lead because he gets a lot of Al Gore's support, but without a front-runner, a lot of candidates who say, look, I may someday want to be president, saying this could be the opportunity. Why not now? Because a lot of people are expecting in 2008 Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is first in Democrats' hearts, she may be the one to run. So you've got all these eight candidates already declared or exploring, and none of them really is a front-runner. They also see President Bush as vulnerable on the economy, which is what Dick Gephardt spoke about at such length this morning.

HARRIS: Yes, but with this card here, these eight faces here, that's 16 hands grabbing all the money that's available, doesn't that complicate matters as well, besides confusing the Democratic voters out there?

SCHNEIDER: Certainly it does. There's going to be a lot of competition. We call this stage of the campaign the invisible primary, because this year, not a single vote will be cast in a primary or caucus, but there is a serious competition for money, because the candidate who ends up with the most money at the end of this year almost always becomes the nominee, George Bush certainly did that in the Republican Party, and also to become the front-runner in the polls, because whoever is at the top of the polls by the end of this year also usually becomes the nominee. So the invisible primary matters, and more than anything else, it's a scramble for money and attention, but not the kind of attention Carol Moseley-Braun has been getting in Iowa.

HARRIS: OK, we'll have to follow it and see. Thanks, Bill Schneider, good to see you again. Take care.

SCHNEIDER: Good to see you, Leon.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired February 19, 2003 - 11:05   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Earlier last hour, we were watching as Congressman Dick Gephardt did come out and make his announcement that he is going to be joining the crowd of Democrats now who are going to be running for president, and our senior political analyst Bill Schneider has been listening to the Gephardt news conference since we stepped away to get to the Ridge press conference, and he joins us now live.
Well, any surprises from what you heard there, Bill?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, he did not get to international affairs until the very end of his remarks. It's pretty clear that he's running on one issue, and that's jobs, the economy. He said I'm not in this fight for my own job, I'm in this fight for your jobs. He said his single purpose is to revive the failing economy.

Mr. Gephardt talked about a fourth way. He said the traditional left-wing way was government handouts. The right-wing way of this president is tax cuts for the few. Clinton's incremental steps were supposed to be a third way. He says his is a fourth way, major steps to give people the tools they need for self-reliance, and he talked in some detail about his plan to ensure everyone health care and to create pension plans that they can keep for their entire lives.

HARRIS: Now, going into it, we talked about -- I quipped about the fact that there aren't very many Democrats aren't running now, but give us a look, if you can, Bill, this field right now is pretty wide open right now. How many Democrats are we talking about now being in this whole party now?

SCHNEIDER: Well, would you believe eight who have indicated that they intend to run, either by declaring themselves candidates, or saying they're forming an exploratory committee. Look at that mob there -- you've got John Kerry, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, now Dick Gephardt, Dennis Kucinich, another congressman, Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont, civil rights activist Al Sharpton, and former Senator Carol Moseley-Braun. Plus three additional Democrats who are thinking about running, Florida Senator Bob Graham, Wesley Clark, a general who was a former supreme commander of NATO, and, remember him, Gary Hart. He was in the 1989 race 15 years ago along with Dick Gephardt. How is that for a crowd?

HARRIS: There you go. Now, let's talk about a couple of these names, if we can. Carol Moseley-Braun, former senator, and Dennis Kucinich, the former mayor of Cleveland, Ohio, and also now, current congressman, let's talk about them, because it's very interesting to see their names come in, considering the fact that both of them pretty much have had to deal with scandal in their past, and to see them coming out and going for the top job is fairly interesting.

But there's lots of talk about Senator Braun right now, and the fact that she may getting into this race, or she may be encouraged to get in this race, to neutralize the effect of Al Sharpton being in the race. What do you hear about that?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you hear lots of gossiping rumors. I don't know if anybody has a foundation, but there are African-American and other Democratic leaders who do not want Al Sharpton to become the voice of the African-American constituency in the Democratic Party, as, for the most part, Jesse Jackson has been when he ran for president in the 1980s. They're concerned about that.

And some are saying -- and I don't hear any foundation for it -- that Carol Moseley-Braun, the former senator, has been urged to run so that Al Sharpton will have some competition from the African-American vote, and of course she's the only woman in the race, so she has an angle there to get not just African-American women, but women of all races, so we don't know if any of that is true, but she has been elected many times locally in Cook County, Illinois, and did serve as the only African-American woman ever elected to the United States Senate for one term.

HARRIS: All right, with that in mind, considering that she's coming from Illinois, I have to show you this picture. Have you seen this already? This is from an event over the weekend, where she came out in Iowa to announce that she's going to be running. That shot there did not look as though there's very many people beating their way to her door right now.

SCHNEIDER: Well, Leon, let's be charitable. There was a snowstorm in Iowa. Now, they probably know how to deal with snow in Iowa better than we do know how to in Washington.

Nevertheless, it was a bit embarrassing that there wasn't a huge crowd of people.

Carol Moseley-Braun, Dennis Kucinich, Al Sharpton and, to some extent, Howard Dean, they're all competing for the same left constituency in the Democratic Party. They're all talking very much about their position in a potential war with Iraq, so you've got a crowded field just to compete for the antiwar vote. They are the four most anti-war candidates right now.

That antiwar constituency, which is becoming angrier and more vocal in the Democratic Party, may be drawing some of these candidates into the race. They see a vote there, and they want it.

HARRIS: Yes, and the thing is, from what we're understanding and what we're hearing, there may actually be even more names coming in the race, as you showed there a moment ago, those three pictures, I think it was Senator Bob Graham, as well as General Wesley Clark.

What is it about this particular climate, this particular landscape right now that is so inviting for so many Democrats to jump in right now? Does President Bush seem to be that vulnerable, or are Democrats all of a sudden just getting that bold or what?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I would say, number one, no front-runner. If Al Gore had run, I think some of these people may have decided not to, certainly Joe Lieberman. But with this crowd of candidate, nobody really stands out as the front-runner, the formidable favorite, the person to beat. The polls show Joe Lieberman a slight favorite, with a little bit of a lead because he gets a lot of Al Gore's support, but without a front-runner, a lot of candidates who say, look, I may someday want to be president, saying this could be the opportunity. Why not now? Because a lot of people are expecting in 2008 Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is first in Democrats' hearts, she may be the one to run. So you've got all these eight candidates already declared or exploring, and none of them really is a front-runner. They also see President Bush as vulnerable on the economy, which is what Dick Gephardt spoke about at such length this morning.

HARRIS: Yes, but with this card here, these eight faces here, that's 16 hands grabbing all the money that's available, doesn't that complicate matters as well, besides confusing the Democratic voters out there?

SCHNEIDER: Certainly it does. There's going to be a lot of competition. We call this stage of the campaign the invisible primary, because this year, not a single vote will be cast in a primary or caucus, but there is a serious competition for money, because the candidate who ends up with the most money at the end of this year almost always becomes the nominee, George Bush certainly did that in the Republican Party, and also to become the front-runner in the polls, because whoever is at the top of the polls by the end of this year also usually becomes the nominee. So the invisible primary matters, and more than anything else, it's a scramble for money and attention, but not the kind of attention Carol Moseley-Braun has been getting in Iowa.

HARRIS: OK, we'll have to follow it and see. Thanks, Bill Schneider, good to see you again. Take care.

SCHNEIDER: Good to see you, Leon.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com