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Baghdad Considers Whether to Destroy Banned Missiles
Aired February 24, 2003 - 10:18 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: As Baghdad considers whether to destroy its banned missiles or shrug off the U.N.'s demands, deep divisions are running through the U.N. Security Council, where the international response would be formed. Germany and France, while they are already dismissing a resolution, this one we just discussed, being written by the U.S. and Britain.
Joining us again to talk about all of this is James Rubin. He is a former assistant U.S. secretary of state for public affairs and a frequent guest of our network.
Good to see you again, Jamie. How are you?
JAMIE RUBIN, FMR. ASST. U.S. SECY. OF STATE: Nice to be with you.
HARRIS: Let's talk about this issue, first of all, with the resolution, and the idea that we think now it may be introduced before the council this afternoon.
Right now, based on where things stand, where the fault lines are right now, how do you see that debate playing out?
RUBIN: Well, I think it's very, very hard to see how the administration with the British government supporting it, can muster a majority of the Security Council for any resolution that is tantamount to supporting immediate military action.
Right now, the way I see it, a majority of the Council Members want to give the inspectors more time. France has already indicated it might veto such a resolution.
The key outstanding issue that could change this debate, is what does Iraq do about the 100 or so missiles and the hundreds of engines, and the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment that Hans Blix has demanded they destroy. That decision has to be made by Baghdad by Saturday, in the next three, four days.
If Iraq destroys that equipment, which would be a substantial decision, and the first real concrete action of disarmament since this whole process began, I think the chances of getting that resolution passed the way the British and Americans want it, are virtually nil.
If, on the other hand, Saddam Hussein miscalculates again, and thinks he can negotiate this issue with Hans Blix, work around the sides, destroy a few pieces of equipment, but not others, then, I think, even the French have said this equipment should be destroyed, and so I suspect they will be able to get the votes necessary for the resolution. So the question really lies, as it has along, in Saddam Hussein's hands. If he miscalculates, there will be a resolution and there will be war.
HARRIS: Let me ask the question about the standing of Tony Blair. He is the key player, right now, with President Bush on this. Without the British support, there wouldn't be any kind of coalition to take the chance they've taken so far. What happens to Tony Blair, if, for instance, the Security Council does have a vote but they don't get the majority? Or if one of the other veto-holding members actually uses a veto?
RUBIN: Well, I think that is a tough question to answer right now. I guess my view at this point is if Iraq refuses to comply with the demands of Blix in the next week or so, refuses to destroy these missiles, and the resolution puts forward a resolution that doesn't pass muster or is vetoed, I think Tony Blair will go forward and support the president and use military force. If, however, the missiles are destroyed that Blix has asked for, these hundreds of missiles and missile engines, then I think even Tony Blair is going to have a tough sell within the group of people that have been his supporters to act militarily.
So I think for at least the next week or so, a lot will depend on this missile decision that Baghdad has to make. Tony Blair wants to be there with the president, until the bitter end, and so I suspect, if Saddam doesn't show any willingness to disarm, he will support the president.
HARRIS: We have saying there is mounting opposition amongst the general population in Europe, many public demonstrations against a war, and many now really coming out -- we're hearing from a whole chorus of voices now, speaking in Anti-bush terms, not just anti- American, but anti-Bush terms.
Is there anything this administration can do to sway any of these out there that are speaking out against the administration in Europe right now? Is there anything that can be done to sway the public?
RUBIN: I think what has happened is it's been a cumulative effect of a long series of statements and actions by the administration that have spurned international opinion, international institutions, whether it's the so-called Kyoto Protocol on the environment or NATO, or various arms control treaties, the International Criminal Control Court, all those chickens are now coming home to roost. The best thing the administration can do is try to show some patience and wait and see whether Iraq destroys these missiles. And if it doesn't do so, then, I think they can push forward and get a resolution and try to use Tony Blair to get the support from Europe that they're looking for.
HARRIS: We'll we have to leave it there, Jamie. Jamie Rubin in London, appreciate your insights.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 24, 2003 - 10:18 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: As Baghdad considers whether to destroy its banned missiles or shrug off the U.N.'s demands, deep divisions are running through the U.N. Security Council, where the international response would be formed. Germany and France, while they are already dismissing a resolution, this one we just discussed, being written by the U.S. and Britain.
Joining us again to talk about all of this is James Rubin. He is a former assistant U.S. secretary of state for public affairs and a frequent guest of our network.
Good to see you again, Jamie. How are you?
JAMIE RUBIN, FMR. ASST. U.S. SECY. OF STATE: Nice to be with you.
HARRIS: Let's talk about this issue, first of all, with the resolution, and the idea that we think now it may be introduced before the council this afternoon.
Right now, based on where things stand, where the fault lines are right now, how do you see that debate playing out?
RUBIN: Well, I think it's very, very hard to see how the administration with the British government supporting it, can muster a majority of the Security Council for any resolution that is tantamount to supporting immediate military action.
Right now, the way I see it, a majority of the Council Members want to give the inspectors more time. France has already indicated it might veto such a resolution.
The key outstanding issue that could change this debate, is what does Iraq do about the 100 or so missiles and the hundreds of engines, and the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment that Hans Blix has demanded they destroy. That decision has to be made by Baghdad by Saturday, in the next three, four days.
If Iraq destroys that equipment, which would be a substantial decision, and the first real concrete action of disarmament since this whole process began, I think the chances of getting that resolution passed the way the British and Americans want it, are virtually nil.
If, on the other hand, Saddam Hussein miscalculates again, and thinks he can negotiate this issue with Hans Blix, work around the sides, destroy a few pieces of equipment, but not others, then, I think, even the French have said this equipment should be destroyed, and so I suspect they will be able to get the votes necessary for the resolution. So the question really lies, as it has along, in Saddam Hussein's hands. If he miscalculates, there will be a resolution and there will be war.
HARRIS: Let me ask the question about the standing of Tony Blair. He is the key player, right now, with President Bush on this. Without the British support, there wouldn't be any kind of coalition to take the chance they've taken so far. What happens to Tony Blair, if, for instance, the Security Council does have a vote but they don't get the majority? Or if one of the other veto-holding members actually uses a veto?
RUBIN: Well, I think that is a tough question to answer right now. I guess my view at this point is if Iraq refuses to comply with the demands of Blix in the next week or so, refuses to destroy these missiles, and the resolution puts forward a resolution that doesn't pass muster or is vetoed, I think Tony Blair will go forward and support the president and use military force. If, however, the missiles are destroyed that Blix has asked for, these hundreds of missiles and missile engines, then I think even Tony Blair is going to have a tough sell within the group of people that have been his supporters to act militarily.
So I think for at least the next week or so, a lot will depend on this missile decision that Baghdad has to make. Tony Blair wants to be there with the president, until the bitter end, and so I suspect, if Saddam doesn't show any willingness to disarm, he will support the president.
HARRIS: We have saying there is mounting opposition amongst the general population in Europe, many public demonstrations against a war, and many now really coming out -- we're hearing from a whole chorus of voices now, speaking in Anti-bush terms, not just anti- American, but anti-Bush terms.
Is there anything this administration can do to sway any of these out there that are speaking out against the administration in Europe right now? Is there anything that can be done to sway the public?
RUBIN: I think what has happened is it's been a cumulative effect of a long series of statements and actions by the administration that have spurned international opinion, international institutions, whether it's the so-called Kyoto Protocol on the environment or NATO, or various arms control treaties, the International Criminal Control Court, all those chickens are now coming home to roost. The best thing the administration can do is try to show some patience and wait and see whether Iraq destroys these missiles. And if it doesn't do so, then, I think they can push forward and get a resolution and try to use Tony Blair to get the support from Europe that they're looking for.
HARRIS: We'll we have to leave it there, Jamie. Jamie Rubin in London, appreciate your insights.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
