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CNN Live Today
War Cost Estimate Up to $95 Billion
Aired February 26, 2003 - 11:01 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: New questions about the price tag of an Iraqi war. A report today puts the figure at as much as $95 billion, well beyond recent estimates. That is a staggering amount for a country fighting economic blues and a growing deficit.
Our White House correspondent, Chris Burns, joins us from snowy Washington, D.C. -- Chris, good morning.
CHRIS BURNS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Carol (sic), hi. The headlines this morning with the price tag of a possible war with Iraq running up to as much as $95 billion simply for an invasion and the aftermath, not to include, of course, what could be years long occupation of Iraq to stabilize it. The Bush administration here this morning refusing to nail down a figure, even though that's been bantered about according to the "Wall Street Journal" and the "Washington Post."
Senior administration officials say that there are all kinds of figures bantered about, anywhere between $50 billion and much higher. The one administration official says that it could be -- include some shopping list or wish list by the Pentagon.
So very, very difficult to predict. Also the question of how long would the war last, how much damage would there be to the Iraqi oil fields that would be used, in part, to offset that cost. So a lot of variables here. Bush administration refusing to nail down a price also because they say that President Bush has yet to firmly decide on waging war against Iraq -- Carol (sic).
KAGAN: Actually, it's Daryn. That's OK. Chris, thank you so much. At the White House -- Leon.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: You've been called worse.
KAGAN: I certainly have. By you, in fact. That's OK. We move on.
HARRIS: That's another story for another day. All right.
The story right now is the Turkish parliament. That parliament is now readying a vote, perhaps even tomorrow, and this vote could allow U.S. troops to come ashore in Turkey. Thousands of troops are waiting on ships in the Mediterranean just off shore poised to open a northern front in Iraq if it does come to war there.
First, a lesson now in Turkish politics. There are 550 seats in the Turkish parliament: 363 of those are held by the ruling Justice and Development Party. The opposition and independent seats total 187. Sixty members of the ruling party say that they may abstain from this vote. A majority of those present must vote in favor of the proposal for it to pass, and if all 550 members show up, that means it will take 276 "yes" votes for this measure to pass.
Now, the ruling party has delayed the vote, suggesting that the support it needs is still not there to get these U.S. troops on the ground.
CNN's Jane Arraf is in Turkey. She joining us now later -- now to give us the latest in this live report from Iskenderun -- hello, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Leon. We are at the port where, as you can see, just after sunset. But we've got U.S. Navy ship Capella docked here. It arrived yesterday, and it has been unloading equipment destined for some of those bases where they want to put U.S. troops, those U.S. combat troops that are now further off shore the ones that Parliament will be voting on. In addition to this ship, there was a Dutch freighter here which was unloading Patriot missiles. Some of the defensive equipment that Turkey has asked NATO for has begun to arrive.
But the main event is that vote in Parliament. They are expected to begin discussions tomorrow. It's still touch and go as to whether they'll get the approval, but the ruling party is trying to get enough support so that when it does put it to a vote in parliament, they will say yes -- Leon.
HARRIS: Well, Jane, the question here is, what do we know about what's been happening behind the scenes to get this vote actually presented to the parliament, and what exactly has been given by the Bush administration to Turkey to get all of this moving?
ARRAF: Well, a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering, and a lot of overt pressure even. Now, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell placed a second phone call to the Turkish prime minister just last night to stress the urgency of getting this vote through parliament.
According to the prime minister here, the prime minister told Mr. Powell that it was doing all it can, but it was really up to parliament, that this is a democracy. And in essence, that's what the holdup is, that there is a lot of public opposition to this on the streets. Now, to get that approval, what the Bush administration is promising is a package which revolves around $6 billion in aid to Turkey. Now, Turkey doesn't see that as aid, it sees it as a partial attempt to stem some of the losses that it might suffer if it goes to war. It's Iraq's neighbor. It depends on Iraq for a lot of its trade, and for some of its oil. So it's counting on that economic support, as well as political and military guarantees about what happens during a war, and what could happen after to a post-war Iraq -- Leon.
HARRIS: Well, the post-war Iraq question that many people have been asking is what happens if Turkish troops are going to be going on the heels of U.S. troops from Turkey into northern Iraq? A lot of people have seen that as something possibly opening up a Pandora's Box, is the term that is being used quite often late in the press. And if that happens, this could really set off a real firestorm there amongst the Kurds. Has there been a resolution on whether Turkish troops will be doing that?
ARRAF: Turkish troops will definitely be going there. But you're absolutely right. That is one of the bigger, more complicated questions that they're trying to sort out, especially in the last couple of days where tension appears to be rising between the Iraqi Kurdish factions that control that northern part of Iraq, and the Turkish government. Some of the Kurdish officials have been saying that they would see this as an invasion force. They don't mind the American troops. They see them practically as liberators, but they do mind the Turks.
Now, the Turkish government has made clear it intends to send in those forces with tacit American approval, but what it would be, would be essentially a buffer zone. It says its troops would not engage in combat, that they would provide a zone around the border with Iraq that would stem a humanitarian crisis, if there was a refugee crisis, and make sure the fighting didn't spread to Turkey. Now the Iraqi Kurds don't quite believe them, and the U.S. is again in the middle trying to sort that out -- Leon.
HARRIS: Yes, big question as if those words are going to match the deeds. Thanks, Jane. Jane Arraf reporting live for us from Iskenderun, Turkey -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Still in Europe now, the British parliament is set to vote today on Prime Minister Blair's Iraq war strategy. Our Christiane Amanpour is watching those events in London. Christiane, hello.
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Daryn, with the world well and truly split in the camp of those who favor military action should that be necessary, and of course, the French-led camp of those who do not favor military action. Now, there are two competing parliamentary debates today. First here, in London and over in Paris as well.
In London, Tony Blair is fielding fierce questions, feisty questions from his House of Commons. It is generally assumed that the vote, which will be taken in a few hours from now, will go Blair's way. But the question is, how many dissenters within his own party will make up that minority, and will he be facing the worst rebellion of his prime ministership. Basically, Tony Blair has acknowledged his problems from the outset, saying that he is not yet asking parliament to vote on military action.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I have no doubt at all that the house will have an opportunity to vote on this issue many times if we come to military action, and certainly, in relation, if there is a second resolution, in relation to that second resolution. So I can assure him, as we are voting tonight, that we're not voting, actually, on the issue of war tonight. We are voting on the issue of the government's strategy, and I have to say I'm well aware of the fact that many people want the second resolution. That's exactly what I want. I can assure him I am working flat out in order to achieve it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: Now, they say this vote is going to come tonight "flat out in order to achieve it," says Blair, because he needs that second U.N. resolution, not only for cover, to appease his own public opinion, but also to shore up international community. As we mentioned, the anti-war camp is also holding a parliamentary debate in Paris today. The prime minister of France addressed the National Assembly and made an impassioned plea, saying that war was not justified, he said, until all peaceful means had been fully exhausted for disarmament of Iraq.
As you know, the French, Germans, backed by Russia, have proposed a further 120 days for inspections. So the battle for Security Council votes is well and truly on right now -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Yes, that definitely looks like an uphill battle to get that second resolution passed right now by the Security Council. Christiane, what happens to Tony Blair at home if that resolution does not pass?
AMANPOUR: Well, it will pass -- oh, the U.N. resolution. Well, that will give him a problem. I thought you were referring to his parliamentary debate. But obviously, the U.N. resolution will be a problem for him. He doesn't need to wait until he gets one. He will go with the United States, so the analysts say, if there is no U.N. resolution. But in terms of his own public opinion, it will pose a significant problem. All the polls have been saying that for a very long time. Of course, the reality is that if there is a war, if it goes well, if it's fairly short and successful, that perhaps memories won't be too long. And you know, there isn't a British election for the next two or even three years. So in terms of long term, it really depends on how the eventual war, if there is one, does play out.
KAGAN: Christiane Amanpour in London. Christiane, thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 26, 2003 - 11:01 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: New questions about the price tag of an Iraqi war. A report today puts the figure at as much as $95 billion, well beyond recent estimates. That is a staggering amount for a country fighting economic blues and a growing deficit.
Our White House correspondent, Chris Burns, joins us from snowy Washington, D.C. -- Chris, good morning.
CHRIS BURNS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Carol (sic), hi. The headlines this morning with the price tag of a possible war with Iraq running up to as much as $95 billion simply for an invasion and the aftermath, not to include, of course, what could be years long occupation of Iraq to stabilize it. The Bush administration here this morning refusing to nail down a figure, even though that's been bantered about according to the "Wall Street Journal" and the "Washington Post."
Senior administration officials say that there are all kinds of figures bantered about, anywhere between $50 billion and much higher. The one administration official says that it could be -- include some shopping list or wish list by the Pentagon.
So very, very difficult to predict. Also the question of how long would the war last, how much damage would there be to the Iraqi oil fields that would be used, in part, to offset that cost. So a lot of variables here. Bush administration refusing to nail down a price also because they say that President Bush has yet to firmly decide on waging war against Iraq -- Carol (sic).
KAGAN: Actually, it's Daryn. That's OK. Chris, thank you so much. At the White House -- Leon.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: You've been called worse.
KAGAN: I certainly have. By you, in fact. That's OK. We move on.
HARRIS: That's another story for another day. All right.
The story right now is the Turkish parliament. That parliament is now readying a vote, perhaps even tomorrow, and this vote could allow U.S. troops to come ashore in Turkey. Thousands of troops are waiting on ships in the Mediterranean just off shore poised to open a northern front in Iraq if it does come to war there.
First, a lesson now in Turkish politics. There are 550 seats in the Turkish parliament: 363 of those are held by the ruling Justice and Development Party. The opposition and independent seats total 187. Sixty members of the ruling party say that they may abstain from this vote. A majority of those present must vote in favor of the proposal for it to pass, and if all 550 members show up, that means it will take 276 "yes" votes for this measure to pass.
Now, the ruling party has delayed the vote, suggesting that the support it needs is still not there to get these U.S. troops on the ground.
CNN's Jane Arraf is in Turkey. She joining us now later -- now to give us the latest in this live report from Iskenderun -- hello, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Leon. We are at the port where, as you can see, just after sunset. But we've got U.S. Navy ship Capella docked here. It arrived yesterday, and it has been unloading equipment destined for some of those bases where they want to put U.S. troops, those U.S. combat troops that are now further off shore the ones that Parliament will be voting on. In addition to this ship, there was a Dutch freighter here which was unloading Patriot missiles. Some of the defensive equipment that Turkey has asked NATO for has begun to arrive.
But the main event is that vote in Parliament. They are expected to begin discussions tomorrow. It's still touch and go as to whether they'll get the approval, but the ruling party is trying to get enough support so that when it does put it to a vote in parliament, they will say yes -- Leon.
HARRIS: Well, Jane, the question here is, what do we know about what's been happening behind the scenes to get this vote actually presented to the parliament, and what exactly has been given by the Bush administration to Turkey to get all of this moving?
ARRAF: Well, a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering, and a lot of overt pressure even. Now, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell placed a second phone call to the Turkish prime minister just last night to stress the urgency of getting this vote through parliament.
According to the prime minister here, the prime minister told Mr. Powell that it was doing all it can, but it was really up to parliament, that this is a democracy. And in essence, that's what the holdup is, that there is a lot of public opposition to this on the streets. Now, to get that approval, what the Bush administration is promising is a package which revolves around $6 billion in aid to Turkey. Now, Turkey doesn't see that as aid, it sees it as a partial attempt to stem some of the losses that it might suffer if it goes to war. It's Iraq's neighbor. It depends on Iraq for a lot of its trade, and for some of its oil. So it's counting on that economic support, as well as political and military guarantees about what happens during a war, and what could happen after to a post-war Iraq -- Leon.
HARRIS: Well, the post-war Iraq question that many people have been asking is what happens if Turkish troops are going to be going on the heels of U.S. troops from Turkey into northern Iraq? A lot of people have seen that as something possibly opening up a Pandora's Box, is the term that is being used quite often late in the press. And if that happens, this could really set off a real firestorm there amongst the Kurds. Has there been a resolution on whether Turkish troops will be doing that?
ARRAF: Turkish troops will definitely be going there. But you're absolutely right. That is one of the bigger, more complicated questions that they're trying to sort out, especially in the last couple of days where tension appears to be rising between the Iraqi Kurdish factions that control that northern part of Iraq, and the Turkish government. Some of the Kurdish officials have been saying that they would see this as an invasion force. They don't mind the American troops. They see them practically as liberators, but they do mind the Turks.
Now, the Turkish government has made clear it intends to send in those forces with tacit American approval, but what it would be, would be essentially a buffer zone. It says its troops would not engage in combat, that they would provide a zone around the border with Iraq that would stem a humanitarian crisis, if there was a refugee crisis, and make sure the fighting didn't spread to Turkey. Now the Iraqi Kurds don't quite believe them, and the U.S. is again in the middle trying to sort that out -- Leon.
HARRIS: Yes, big question as if those words are going to match the deeds. Thanks, Jane. Jane Arraf reporting live for us from Iskenderun, Turkey -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Still in Europe now, the British parliament is set to vote today on Prime Minister Blair's Iraq war strategy. Our Christiane Amanpour is watching those events in London. Christiane, hello.
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Daryn, with the world well and truly split in the camp of those who favor military action should that be necessary, and of course, the French-led camp of those who do not favor military action. Now, there are two competing parliamentary debates today. First here, in London and over in Paris as well.
In London, Tony Blair is fielding fierce questions, feisty questions from his House of Commons. It is generally assumed that the vote, which will be taken in a few hours from now, will go Blair's way. But the question is, how many dissenters within his own party will make up that minority, and will he be facing the worst rebellion of his prime ministership. Basically, Tony Blair has acknowledged his problems from the outset, saying that he is not yet asking parliament to vote on military action.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I have no doubt at all that the house will have an opportunity to vote on this issue many times if we come to military action, and certainly, in relation, if there is a second resolution, in relation to that second resolution. So I can assure him, as we are voting tonight, that we're not voting, actually, on the issue of war tonight. We are voting on the issue of the government's strategy, and I have to say I'm well aware of the fact that many people want the second resolution. That's exactly what I want. I can assure him I am working flat out in order to achieve it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AMANPOUR: Now, they say this vote is going to come tonight "flat out in order to achieve it," says Blair, because he needs that second U.N. resolution, not only for cover, to appease his own public opinion, but also to shore up international community. As we mentioned, the anti-war camp is also holding a parliamentary debate in Paris today. The prime minister of France addressed the National Assembly and made an impassioned plea, saying that war was not justified, he said, until all peaceful means had been fully exhausted for disarmament of Iraq.
As you know, the French, Germans, backed by Russia, have proposed a further 120 days for inspections. So the battle for Security Council votes is well and truly on right now -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Yes, that definitely looks like an uphill battle to get that second resolution passed right now by the Security Council. Christiane, what happens to Tony Blair at home if that resolution does not pass?
AMANPOUR: Well, it will pass -- oh, the U.N. resolution. Well, that will give him a problem. I thought you were referring to his parliamentary debate. But obviously, the U.N. resolution will be a problem for him. He doesn't need to wait until he gets one. He will go with the United States, so the analysts say, if there is no U.N. resolution. But in terms of his own public opinion, it will pose a significant problem. All the polls have been saying that for a very long time. Of course, the reality is that if there is a war, if it goes well, if it's fairly short and successful, that perhaps memories won't be too long. And you know, there isn't a British election for the next two or even three years. So in terms of long term, it really depends on how the eventual war, if there is one, does play out.
KAGAN: Christiane Amanpour in London. Christiane, thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
