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Why Is There So Much Interest on Hamid Karzai and Afghanistan?

Aired February 26, 2003 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Why there is so much interest on Hamid Karzai and Afghanistan, considering a prerun of what might be taking place in Iraq if indeed Saddam Hussein is removed from power and the United States does go to war with that country. On that topic, we want to bring in retired Brigadier General David Grange, joining us this hour from Chicago.
General, good morning. Thanks for being with us.

It looks like the U.S. government trying to learn some lessons of some stuff that has gone right in Afghanistan, and some that has not gone as planned. Hamid Karzai does not control Afghanistan. He -- with the help of some international forces just in control of a very small portion, while warlords control the rest of the country.

BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Exactly. The different factions, in this case warlords, definitely control. They're the voice of authority in certain areas in Afghanistan, and President Karzai has the minimal control. I think he's a terrific leader, with U.S. backing and other international backing, but there's a long way to go to go through the reconstruction of Afghanistan with the Democratic governance, a good market economy and the rule of law. It's a tall order.

KAGAN: Let's move and look at Iraq. We're maybe perhaps not talking warlords, but we are talking some very different groups that have different visions of who should be controlling Iraq. The U.S. is going to do it different and not perhaps -- at this point back up a specific leader, instead wait and see what happens first?

GRANGE: Your last course of action. The United States, I believe, will wait. There will be -- U.S. will be definitely, I think, in charge early of some kind of international body early on, and won't transition to Iraqi governance, maybe one, two years after the post-war forces do the MiGs they have to do. The problem you have, is you have the internal factions very similar to Afghanistan, in this case, Kurds, Shiites, Sunnis, and then you have, of course, outside influences like Turkey and Iran, and Saudi Arabia. That will influence Iraq to some part for their own individual interest. So this reconstruction force that's in Iraq has a tall order. It's going to take thousands of troops to maintain a secure environment to go through what some people say de-Baath-ification, from the part the way things used to be run in Iraq, to something better for the people of that country.

So that's going go take a while to transition to that. KAGAN: In fact, some of the numbers that we're seeing, they just continue to go up and up and up. And now we're hearing from the head of the Army that it could be several hundred thousand U.S. troops that would have to be inside of Iraq for a couple of years at least. That's not necessarily what the American people had been hearing up to this point.

GRANGE: Well, I would think that it's going to be over 100, 000. It may not be all U.S. Hopefully, international support will come in. After the war, if in fact, there is a war, I think other countries that are not -- don't want to be involved in the fighting part, will definitely jump on this thing. Ideally, you would have country support from around the region that would participate in this.

But you have to do that to secure environments so the transition can take place. Otherwise it will fall apart.

KAGAN: Before we let you go, I want to bring up a couple names that Americans might not have heard so far, but might hear in the weeks and months. Ahmed Chalabi (ph), who is he, and what kind of role might he play?

GRANGE: Well, he's one of the leading candidates of the future of Iraq. I'm not sure that the United States would endorse him up front, but he's definitely a candidate and a leader. All these people are going to be involved somehow, but not right away.

KAGAN: And what about an Arab-American rising through the ranks of the U.S. Army, General John Abizaid (ph). And if I said his name incorrectly, I apologize.

GRANGE: Yes, John Abizaid (ph). He -- I think that you may see John as the governor, the military governor of Iraq, for lack of a better term, during his transition period to ensure things are secure until you can get things going with a new Iraqi Democratic governance. It's going to take a while. So he may have that roll. He speaks Arabic; he knows the area very well.

(INTERRUPTED BY LIVE EVENT)

KAGAN: President Karzai, Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, going to bring General Grange back here.

Fascinating to hear the president of Afghanistan talk about the work before him, and again, perhaps a foreshadowing of what will be taking place in Iraq.

We take so much for granted in this country of what we have in terms of the infrastructure that they're making these efforts in Afghanistan. But when you hear things like they have no census, they have no census for their population. There's no registered voters. So much work to do in Afghanistan, and if, indeed, the opportunity comes up, in Iraq as well.

GRANGE: That's right, I think, you know, looking ahead to what may happen in Iraq, looking at Afghanistan is a good example on how long these things take. How I put it in perspective myself is I just look back at our own history, when we had our constitution, the 13 original states and how long we struggled to try to get that right, and we're still working on it.

So it takes some time and commitment, and sometimes Americans were focused on a 100-meter dash, and these are marathons. I that's just a good perspective to take.

KAGAN: Work in progress right here in this country, and this was a culture that came from a different Democratic tradition and culture. So perhaps even easier for the U.S.

General Grange, thank you for your insight this morning. Good to have you with us in Chicago.

GRANGE: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Afghanistan?>


Aired February 26, 2003 - 11:30   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Why there is so much interest on Hamid Karzai and Afghanistan, considering a prerun of what might be taking place in Iraq if indeed Saddam Hussein is removed from power and the United States does go to war with that country. On that topic, we want to bring in retired Brigadier General David Grange, joining us this hour from Chicago.
General, good morning. Thanks for being with us.

It looks like the U.S. government trying to learn some lessons of some stuff that has gone right in Afghanistan, and some that has not gone as planned. Hamid Karzai does not control Afghanistan. He -- with the help of some international forces just in control of a very small portion, while warlords control the rest of the country.

BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Exactly. The different factions, in this case warlords, definitely control. They're the voice of authority in certain areas in Afghanistan, and President Karzai has the minimal control. I think he's a terrific leader, with U.S. backing and other international backing, but there's a long way to go to go through the reconstruction of Afghanistan with the Democratic governance, a good market economy and the rule of law. It's a tall order.

KAGAN: Let's move and look at Iraq. We're maybe perhaps not talking warlords, but we are talking some very different groups that have different visions of who should be controlling Iraq. The U.S. is going to do it different and not perhaps -- at this point back up a specific leader, instead wait and see what happens first?

GRANGE: Your last course of action. The United States, I believe, will wait. There will be -- U.S. will be definitely, I think, in charge early of some kind of international body early on, and won't transition to Iraqi governance, maybe one, two years after the post-war forces do the MiGs they have to do. The problem you have, is you have the internal factions very similar to Afghanistan, in this case, Kurds, Shiites, Sunnis, and then you have, of course, outside influences like Turkey and Iran, and Saudi Arabia. That will influence Iraq to some part for their own individual interest. So this reconstruction force that's in Iraq has a tall order. It's going to take thousands of troops to maintain a secure environment to go through what some people say de-Baath-ification, from the part the way things used to be run in Iraq, to something better for the people of that country.

So that's going go take a while to transition to that. KAGAN: In fact, some of the numbers that we're seeing, they just continue to go up and up and up. And now we're hearing from the head of the Army that it could be several hundred thousand U.S. troops that would have to be inside of Iraq for a couple of years at least. That's not necessarily what the American people had been hearing up to this point.

GRANGE: Well, I would think that it's going to be over 100, 000. It may not be all U.S. Hopefully, international support will come in. After the war, if in fact, there is a war, I think other countries that are not -- don't want to be involved in the fighting part, will definitely jump on this thing. Ideally, you would have country support from around the region that would participate in this.

But you have to do that to secure environments so the transition can take place. Otherwise it will fall apart.

KAGAN: Before we let you go, I want to bring up a couple names that Americans might not have heard so far, but might hear in the weeks and months. Ahmed Chalabi (ph), who is he, and what kind of role might he play?

GRANGE: Well, he's one of the leading candidates of the future of Iraq. I'm not sure that the United States would endorse him up front, but he's definitely a candidate and a leader. All these people are going to be involved somehow, but not right away.

KAGAN: And what about an Arab-American rising through the ranks of the U.S. Army, General John Abizaid (ph). And if I said his name incorrectly, I apologize.

GRANGE: Yes, John Abizaid (ph). He -- I think that you may see John as the governor, the military governor of Iraq, for lack of a better term, during his transition period to ensure things are secure until you can get things going with a new Iraqi Democratic governance. It's going to take a while. So he may have that roll. He speaks Arabic; he knows the area very well.

(INTERRUPTED BY LIVE EVENT)

KAGAN: President Karzai, Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, going to bring General Grange back here.

Fascinating to hear the president of Afghanistan talk about the work before him, and again, perhaps a foreshadowing of what will be taking place in Iraq.

We take so much for granted in this country of what we have in terms of the infrastructure that they're making these efforts in Afghanistan. But when you hear things like they have no census, they have no census for their population. There's no registered voters. So much work to do in Afghanistan, and if, indeed, the opportunity comes up, in Iraq as well.

GRANGE: That's right, I think, you know, looking ahead to what may happen in Iraq, looking at Afghanistan is a good example on how long these things take. How I put it in perspective myself is I just look back at our own history, when we had our constitution, the 13 original states and how long we struggled to try to get that right, and we're still working on it.

So it takes some time and commitment, and sometimes Americans were focused on a 100-meter dash, and these are marathons. I that's just a good perspective to take.

KAGAN: Work in progress right here in this country, and this was a culture that came from a different Democratic tradition and culture. So perhaps even easier for the U.S.

General Grange, thank you for your insight this morning. Good to have you with us in Chicago.

GRANGE: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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