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American Morning

North Korea Nuclear Standoff

Aired March 05, 2003 - 07:15   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Just days after a confrontation in the skies over North Korea, the U.S. is sending two dozen bombers to the Pacific. Defense officials say the B-1s and B-52s are going to the island of Guam to beef up American defenses in the region. Officials said the deployment had long been planned and is not related to Sunday's interception of a U.S. surveillance plane by four North Korean fighter jets.
So, how will North Korea respond to the U.S. action?

Joining us now from Richmond, Virginia, Mitchell Reiss, dean of international affairs at the College of William & Mary.

Welcome -- good to see you, sir.

MITCHELL REISS, DEAN OF INT'L. AFFAIRS, COLLEGE OF WILLIAM & MARY: Good morning.

ZAHN: I want to share with our audience a statement the Pentagon issued about this action. The Pentagon says: "These moves are not aggressive in nature. Deploying these additional forces is a prudent measure to bolter our defense of posture and as a deterrent. We are seeking a peaceful diplomatic resolution of the international community's concerns over North Korea's nuclear weapons program."

How do you perceive this mobilization?

REISS: Well, I think the Pentagon's statement is accurate, and it also emphasizes some of the themes that the administration has been emphasizing for the past few months. They do want a diplomatic solution to this crisis, and they want it to take place in a multilateral setting.

The announcement yesterday by the Pentagon was actually based on a decision that was taken over a month ago to recalibrate our forces, because of our much greater focus now on the Middle East.

ZAHN: You say that the administration would like to work this out diplomatically, but the president made it very clear to anybody listening to him yesterday that if things don't work out diplomatically, he said -- quote -- "They'll have to work out militarily."

What kind of a situation could the U.S. wind up with in the next two weeks, as the nation moves towards war?

REISS: Well, the North Koreans have undertaken a series of provocative actions now dating back a few months. They have expelled the international inspectors from the north. They've restarted their nuclear weapons facility at Yongbyon. They've withdrawn from the NPT.

I expect them to continue to engage in these provocative actions, and they're enormously disconcerting to the United States and worrisome to all of the countries in the region. It would be preferable if the North Koreans would understand that they're not only missing an opportunity here, but their actions are actually kind of productive to achieving the type of economic and military security that they say they want.

ZAHN: I think what might be deeply concerning to a lot of folks out there is something we found in "The Washington Post" this morning, and it was a quote from a North Korean general as saying -- quote: "If an encounter like this happens again" -- referring to the MiGs chasing our surveillance plane -- "I think they will shoot down the U.S. plane. North Koreans don't have any fear of war."

What is it do you think they're trying to provoke here?

REISS: Well, it's always difficult to divine North Korea's intentions, but in four years of negotiating with them, it's clear that they are much more comfortable at operating at a higher level of tension than most other countries are. And this is par for the course. They artificially increase their bargaining leverage by raising the temperature in the room, and this statement by the North Korean general is consistent with that type of behavior from the past.

ZAHN: And it would make sense that they might try more of these provocative measures as the debate over war with Iraq rages on.

REISS: That's right. I think that we'll continue to see them to undertake these steps. Again, I think that they're counterproductive. I think they're missing an excellent opportunity to really enhance their security. But the danger, the largest danger is that they will actually start to reprocess the spent fuel that's at Yongbyon, to separate the plutonium that could be used for nuclear weapons.

This would be the single most provocative step that they could take. So far, they've refrained from doing so.

ZAHN: Dean Reiss, thanks for your time this morning. Mr. Reiss of the College of William & Mary -- appreciate your time.

REISS: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.






Aired March 5, 2003 - 07:15   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Just days after a confrontation in the skies over North Korea, the U.S. is sending two dozen bombers to the Pacific. Defense officials say the B-1s and B-52s are going to the island of Guam to beef up American defenses in the region. Officials said the deployment had long been planned and is not related to Sunday's interception of a U.S. surveillance plane by four North Korean fighter jets.
So, how will North Korea respond to the U.S. action?

Joining us now from Richmond, Virginia, Mitchell Reiss, dean of international affairs at the College of William & Mary.

Welcome -- good to see you, sir.

MITCHELL REISS, DEAN OF INT'L. AFFAIRS, COLLEGE OF WILLIAM & MARY: Good morning.

ZAHN: I want to share with our audience a statement the Pentagon issued about this action. The Pentagon says: "These moves are not aggressive in nature. Deploying these additional forces is a prudent measure to bolter our defense of posture and as a deterrent. We are seeking a peaceful diplomatic resolution of the international community's concerns over North Korea's nuclear weapons program."

How do you perceive this mobilization?

REISS: Well, I think the Pentagon's statement is accurate, and it also emphasizes some of the themes that the administration has been emphasizing for the past few months. They do want a diplomatic solution to this crisis, and they want it to take place in a multilateral setting.

The announcement yesterday by the Pentagon was actually based on a decision that was taken over a month ago to recalibrate our forces, because of our much greater focus now on the Middle East.

ZAHN: You say that the administration would like to work this out diplomatically, but the president made it very clear to anybody listening to him yesterday that if things don't work out diplomatically, he said -- quote -- "They'll have to work out militarily."

What kind of a situation could the U.S. wind up with in the next two weeks, as the nation moves towards war?

REISS: Well, the North Koreans have undertaken a series of provocative actions now dating back a few months. They have expelled the international inspectors from the north. They've restarted their nuclear weapons facility at Yongbyon. They've withdrawn from the NPT.

I expect them to continue to engage in these provocative actions, and they're enormously disconcerting to the United States and worrisome to all of the countries in the region. It would be preferable if the North Koreans would understand that they're not only missing an opportunity here, but their actions are actually kind of productive to achieving the type of economic and military security that they say they want.

ZAHN: I think what might be deeply concerning to a lot of folks out there is something we found in "The Washington Post" this morning, and it was a quote from a North Korean general as saying -- quote: "If an encounter like this happens again" -- referring to the MiGs chasing our surveillance plane -- "I think they will shoot down the U.S. plane. North Koreans don't have any fear of war."

What is it do you think they're trying to provoke here?

REISS: Well, it's always difficult to divine North Korea's intentions, but in four years of negotiating with them, it's clear that they are much more comfortable at operating at a higher level of tension than most other countries are. And this is par for the course. They artificially increase their bargaining leverage by raising the temperature in the room, and this statement by the North Korean general is consistent with that type of behavior from the past.

ZAHN: And it would make sense that they might try more of these provocative measures as the debate over war with Iraq rages on.

REISS: That's right. I think that we'll continue to see them to undertake these steps. Again, I think that they're counterproductive. I think they're missing an excellent opportunity to really enhance their security. But the danger, the largest danger is that they will actually start to reprocess the spent fuel that's at Yongbyon, to separate the plutonium that could be used for nuclear weapons.

This would be the single most provocative step that they could take. So far, they've refrained from doing so.

ZAHN: Dean Reiss, thanks for your time this morning. Mr. Reiss of the College of William & Mary -- appreciate your time.

REISS: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.