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CNN Live Today

Talking Oscars

Aired March 10, 2003 - 11:41   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Now, this is a busy time out here in Hollywood. Today is the Oscar nominee lunch. Last night, what they call the SAG Awards. That stands for the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the last major movie award before Oscar happens on March 23rd. Want to bring in an old friend of ours, Tom O'Neil, from goldderby.com, to help us look at SAG and also look forward and what this might mean for Oscar.
Tom, good morning.

TOM O'NEIL, GOLDDERBY.COM: Good morning, Daryn.

KAGAN: It is a good morning in Chicago, you might say, because once again last night at the SAG Awards, it was all about "Chicago," "Chicago," "Chicago."

O'NEIL: Yes, this may be a bandwagon that just can't be stopped. Just yesterday, the "New York Times" gave us their Oscar predictions, and they had three predicting Jack Nicholson, all of them for best actor, and all three went for Nicole Kidman for best actress.

What we saw last night at SAG changes everything, because Oscar ballots aren't due until a week from today. And my guess is about 60 percent of the ballots are still out. And let's remember what happened last year between SAG and the Oscars. Halle Berry, who had not won a single award, went on to win SAG and went on to win the Oscar.

KAGAN: As a matter of fact, I saw her last night, and she was saying that it all started for her at those awards last year. Let's look at who did win. You had Catherine Zeta Jones, a very pregnant Catherine Zeta Jones, looking very lovely, holding the baby and holding the award. She won for best supporting actress. You had Renee Zellweger winning for best actress, and then the cast, which is like the SAG Awards equivalent of best movie, winning.

So once again, the buzz going with "Chicago."

Now, you mentioned the front-runners, Jack Nicholson and Nicole Kidman, nothing against their performances, both excellent, but just not the energy with them at this point in time.

O'NEIL: No, and that's strange, because both of them won at the Golden Globes on the drama side. Renee won on the comedy-musical side, of course, but hey, Nicole Kidman did last year for a musical, an actress who we didn't know could sing.

And here's Renee, who we didn't know could sing, won that award and did something that Nicole couldn't do last year.

KAGAN: An insider like you is really good at explaining to the outsiders like us, you were starting to do this, how SAG and these awards play over, and the significance of this being the actors voting and actors and academy and the percentage of how it carries over.

O'NEIL: The percentage is astounding. Actually, it's more than 80 percent carryover. There are 100,000 members of the Screen Actors Guild that vote, and there are about 6,000 members of the Oscars, but they're not all actors voting at the Oscars. Hair and makeup people are voting for the -- out of category. So we don't know how this will translate.

Generally speaking, SAG can be a little more popular based than the Oscars. So that's why I wonder if this is going to carry over. I think this did solidify the best actor race for Daniel Day Lewis and supporting actress for Catherine Zeta Jones. But Renee Zellweger may have some trouble from Nicole, or even from Julianne Moore, as we move forward. And I'll tell you, the big shock last night, Daryn, was Christopher Walken. Where did that come from? Everyone's been saying Chris Cooper, Chris Cooper for "Adaptation" is going to win.

KAGAN: Right, and he did win for the Golden Globes. I'll tell you where it came from, and we talked about this on the phone. I thought Christopher Walken was excellent in "Catch Me If You Can," and of course, he's taking the honors last night for best supporting actor, and he is nominated for Oscar. But you weren't as overwhelmed by that performance as you were by Chris Cooper in "Adaptation."

O'NEIL: Right, and Chris Cooper just seems to have the buzz. I haven't heard any buzz at all for Christopher Walken. He's a beloved actor, and a great one. We're normally used to seeing him play villains, but instead, he plays a good guy this year and wins SAG.

And the really strange thing about the awards last night, Daryn, were that three of the four winners, I'm talking Catherine Zeta Jones, Renee Zellweger and Daniel Day Lewis, play villains, and that's very rare. Normally these awards love heroic figures.

KAGAN: And that's not what we're seeing this time around. And of course, it's the surprises that keep people like you and me coming back year after year to cover these things.

O'NEIL: Absolutely.

KAGAN: So as we look forward to Oscar, let's look at who could be a big surprise, and who do you think, if "Chicago" doesn't hold on, what could be the surprise buzz going into Oscar 2003?

O'NEIL: We could see upsets by "The Pianist," and we know that, because just in the last two weeks, we saw "The Pianist" pull off a huge surprise at the British Academy Awards after it had no buzz, did not have the most nominations, and was not really well received by audiences in the U.K., and it swept BASTA (ph).

Now we know that there's a lot of gathering buzz for this movie in L.A., and we know people were late getting around to viewing this tape, because they thought, oh God, another Holocaust movie, I don't know if I can bear it, it's so horrid.

But when they see this movie, voters are buzzing about how impressed they are. It is very possible that Adrienne Brody could win best actor. He is the only nominee among the five who has never won before, and this is a rarity in Oscar history. Never before have we seen one actor face four previous winners. So he's the only fresh meat in the bin, so to speak. So if Oscars voters are looking for somebody new, they may go for Adrienne.

KAGAN: We'll have to watch him. Yes, and a very intense experience. Didn't he lose like 20 or 30 pounds just to play the role of the pianist? And when you meet him in person, you kind of wonder, Adrienne, I don't know where those 20 or 30 pounds came from, because he's such a slight man anyway.

O'NEIL: I know, he really is. But he gave an amazing performance.

KAGAN: He did.

O'NEIL: And they generally like newcomers at the Oscars.

KAGAN: We'll watch for that.

Now we have a little fun game here called playing Oscar god. I'm going to let you do that. I'm going to let you take over one category. You can only pick one, and there's only going to be one vote. So you get to give the Oscar in a single category, or to a single actor or actress, or picture, or director you want to pick. So what's it going to be?

O'NEIL: That's easy for me. I think Julianne Moore gave the most amazing performance of the year in "Far From Heaven." And she won a lot of critics award, too. So I think if anybody wins, but Julianne, I'll be outraged.

What about you, Daryn? Let me turn this back on you. I am the Oscar god. You are Oscar goddess. Who would you give to it?

KAGAN: You know, I'm going to give it to somebody I don't think is going to need my help, and that is first-time director Rob Marshall for "Chicago." He goes in to pitch a totally different project. He was going to pitch "Rent." He walked out with "Chicago," this project that had been out there forever; you take these stars who you wouldn't picture being in a musical, and he made a very fun and entertaining movie.

O'NEIL: I can't argue with that. I think he'll probably win.

KAGAN: You're right. He doesn't need my help. But we'll be watching. Tom O'Neil, goldderby.com. Thank for joining us, Tom. We really appreciate it, and we'll see you out here for the Oscars.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired March 10, 2003 - 11:41   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Now, this is a busy time out here in Hollywood. Today is the Oscar nominee lunch. Last night, what they call the SAG Awards. That stands for the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the last major movie award before Oscar happens on March 23rd. Want to bring in an old friend of ours, Tom O'Neil, from goldderby.com, to help us look at SAG and also look forward and what this might mean for Oscar.
Tom, good morning.

TOM O'NEIL, GOLDDERBY.COM: Good morning, Daryn.

KAGAN: It is a good morning in Chicago, you might say, because once again last night at the SAG Awards, it was all about "Chicago," "Chicago," "Chicago."

O'NEIL: Yes, this may be a bandwagon that just can't be stopped. Just yesterday, the "New York Times" gave us their Oscar predictions, and they had three predicting Jack Nicholson, all of them for best actor, and all three went for Nicole Kidman for best actress.

What we saw last night at SAG changes everything, because Oscar ballots aren't due until a week from today. And my guess is about 60 percent of the ballots are still out. And let's remember what happened last year between SAG and the Oscars. Halle Berry, who had not won a single award, went on to win SAG and went on to win the Oscar.

KAGAN: As a matter of fact, I saw her last night, and she was saying that it all started for her at those awards last year. Let's look at who did win. You had Catherine Zeta Jones, a very pregnant Catherine Zeta Jones, looking very lovely, holding the baby and holding the award. She won for best supporting actress. You had Renee Zellweger winning for best actress, and then the cast, which is like the SAG Awards equivalent of best movie, winning.

So once again, the buzz going with "Chicago."

Now, you mentioned the front-runners, Jack Nicholson and Nicole Kidman, nothing against their performances, both excellent, but just not the energy with them at this point in time.

O'NEIL: No, and that's strange, because both of them won at the Golden Globes on the drama side. Renee won on the comedy-musical side, of course, but hey, Nicole Kidman did last year for a musical, an actress who we didn't know could sing.

And here's Renee, who we didn't know could sing, won that award and did something that Nicole couldn't do last year.

KAGAN: An insider like you is really good at explaining to the outsiders like us, you were starting to do this, how SAG and these awards play over, and the significance of this being the actors voting and actors and academy and the percentage of how it carries over.

O'NEIL: The percentage is astounding. Actually, it's more than 80 percent carryover. There are 100,000 members of the Screen Actors Guild that vote, and there are about 6,000 members of the Oscars, but they're not all actors voting at the Oscars. Hair and makeup people are voting for the -- out of category. So we don't know how this will translate.

Generally speaking, SAG can be a little more popular based than the Oscars. So that's why I wonder if this is going to carry over. I think this did solidify the best actor race for Daniel Day Lewis and supporting actress for Catherine Zeta Jones. But Renee Zellweger may have some trouble from Nicole, or even from Julianne Moore, as we move forward. And I'll tell you, the big shock last night, Daryn, was Christopher Walken. Where did that come from? Everyone's been saying Chris Cooper, Chris Cooper for "Adaptation" is going to win.

KAGAN: Right, and he did win for the Golden Globes. I'll tell you where it came from, and we talked about this on the phone. I thought Christopher Walken was excellent in "Catch Me If You Can," and of course, he's taking the honors last night for best supporting actor, and he is nominated for Oscar. But you weren't as overwhelmed by that performance as you were by Chris Cooper in "Adaptation."

O'NEIL: Right, and Chris Cooper just seems to have the buzz. I haven't heard any buzz at all for Christopher Walken. He's a beloved actor, and a great one. We're normally used to seeing him play villains, but instead, he plays a good guy this year and wins SAG.

And the really strange thing about the awards last night, Daryn, were that three of the four winners, I'm talking Catherine Zeta Jones, Renee Zellweger and Daniel Day Lewis, play villains, and that's very rare. Normally these awards love heroic figures.

KAGAN: And that's not what we're seeing this time around. And of course, it's the surprises that keep people like you and me coming back year after year to cover these things.

O'NEIL: Absolutely.

KAGAN: So as we look forward to Oscar, let's look at who could be a big surprise, and who do you think, if "Chicago" doesn't hold on, what could be the surprise buzz going into Oscar 2003?

O'NEIL: We could see upsets by "The Pianist," and we know that, because just in the last two weeks, we saw "The Pianist" pull off a huge surprise at the British Academy Awards after it had no buzz, did not have the most nominations, and was not really well received by audiences in the U.K., and it swept BASTA (ph).

Now we know that there's a lot of gathering buzz for this movie in L.A., and we know people were late getting around to viewing this tape, because they thought, oh God, another Holocaust movie, I don't know if I can bear it, it's so horrid.

But when they see this movie, voters are buzzing about how impressed they are. It is very possible that Adrienne Brody could win best actor. He is the only nominee among the five who has never won before, and this is a rarity in Oscar history. Never before have we seen one actor face four previous winners. So he's the only fresh meat in the bin, so to speak. So if Oscars voters are looking for somebody new, they may go for Adrienne.

KAGAN: We'll have to watch him. Yes, and a very intense experience. Didn't he lose like 20 or 30 pounds just to play the role of the pianist? And when you meet him in person, you kind of wonder, Adrienne, I don't know where those 20 or 30 pounds came from, because he's such a slight man anyway.

O'NEIL: I know, he really is. But he gave an amazing performance.

KAGAN: He did.

O'NEIL: And they generally like newcomers at the Oscars.

KAGAN: We'll watch for that.

Now we have a little fun game here called playing Oscar god. I'm going to let you do that. I'm going to let you take over one category. You can only pick one, and there's only going to be one vote. So you get to give the Oscar in a single category, or to a single actor or actress, or picture, or director you want to pick. So what's it going to be?

O'NEIL: That's easy for me. I think Julianne Moore gave the most amazing performance of the year in "Far From Heaven." And she won a lot of critics award, too. So I think if anybody wins, but Julianne, I'll be outraged.

What about you, Daryn? Let me turn this back on you. I am the Oscar god. You are Oscar goddess. Who would you give to it?

KAGAN: You know, I'm going to give it to somebody I don't think is going to need my help, and that is first-time director Rob Marshall for "Chicago." He goes in to pitch a totally different project. He was going to pitch "Rent." He walked out with "Chicago," this project that had been out there forever; you take these stars who you wouldn't picture being in a musical, and he made a very fun and entertaining movie.

O'NEIL: I can't argue with that. I think he'll probably win.

KAGAN: You're right. He doesn't need my help. But we'll be watching. Tom O'Neil, goldderby.com. Thank for joining us, Tom. We really appreciate it, and we'll see you out here for the Oscars.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com