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American Morning
Pre-war Controversy Likely to be Lost Once War Starts
Aired March 17, 2003 - 09:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Some might say that if the Azores summit proves anything, it is that President Bush will go the extra 5,000 miles for diplomacy. He is giving it one last chance to work, but war appears more certain now than ever, though. So the president can't be happy with reports of infighting among members of his war council.
Secretary of State Powell had this day to say on one of the Sunday talk shows.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: To the extent that I can contribute to the debate on war plans and the discussion on war plans, I did so. But this business that somehow I am in some kind of fight with Tommy Franks over his war plan is nonsense.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Joining us now with more on how the administration is doing, our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield. Good morning.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Top of the morning, Paula.
ZAHN: Top of the morning to you. Happy St. Patrick's day.
So for an administration that prides itself on having such a disciplined message, it must be in pain over these reports -- widely reported, I might add, of a lot of infighting and folks not being on the same page.
GREENFIELD: Yes, absolutely. It has been remarkable. For two years, friend and foe alike have absolutely marveled at the relative lack of infighting and back biting, compared with past administrations. This one has tended to speak with one voice, and yet, over the last five days as they apparently lost control of the diplomatic efforts, you have had a series of stories in the major papers, in the "New York Times," in the "Washington Post," where allegedly bad feelings between Colin Powell's State Department, and Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney's forces have been evident.
Yesterday, the Sunday talk shows filled with comments like disaster, bad week for the president, reports, in fact, that the president was angry at both Powell and Rumsfeld. "Newsweek" out today has a very similar story. And, as you say, Paula, it's remarkable that this time, on the eve of war, we're getting these kinds of stories.
ZAHN: It is a pretty obvious question, but why now?
GREENFIELD: Well, I think part of it is, for the first time since 9/11, there is a sense that the competence issue has arisen. This administration never seemed to mind when critics complained about unilateralism, you are flexing your muscles, there was at least some sense of look, they don't have to like us as long as they respect us. With Afghanistan, they could say, We told you. It was a relatively quick, relatively cost-free victory. There were celebrations in the streets, Americans as liberators. But the picture now is that they couldn't even get a majority in the Security Council, they couldn't even get Turkey to go along with billions of dollars in aid -- or bribes -- which means the war will be more complicated, and you'll remember, John Kennedy said, after the bay of pigs, "Victory has a thousand fathers, and defeat is an orphan." Defeat also has -- or, at least, some kind of defeat, diplomatic, has a thousand kibitzers.
ZAHN: In all fairness, though, you can't really call this a defeat yet, the war hasn't even started.
GREENFIELD: And I think that's really the key to this, that for all of this bad news -- and there is some bad news for the Bush administration, not just the stories, but shaky job approval numbers, his reelect numbers suggest some possibility of political trouble, but the fact is, I think, all of it will just be overwhelmed by a tidal wave once the war begins. If it is relatively quick, relatively bloodless, if Iraqis greet Americans as liberators, all those negative stories, I think, will be forgotten, and if it goes badly, that's going to be the story, Paula, and not what happened in the runnup -- so you are right.
ZAHN: Help us explore the public opinion polls. The latest CNN Gallup Poll would suggest that the president has gained support for diplomatic push over the last couple weeks. There is still some underlying weaknesses, if you don't go for the second resolution, but overall the president has to be pretty satisfied with these numbers, doesn't he?
GREENFIELD: Well, basically, it's -- look, let's go. We know this is going to happen, let's get it over with, I think the behavior of the French and other alleged allies have really helped put more Americans behind the Bush administration, and I think when the war starts, and I think it's when, you are going to see a huge spike in Bush's job approval because people do rally around. It's only if the war has really bad consequences, a quagmire, terrorist attacks, some awful consequence, that the public, the American public traditionally then tends to say what's going on? But in the first days, those numbers are going to go through the roof.
ZAHN: And these stories that we heard widely reported over the weekend will seem all but moot, no traction.
GREENFIELD: They are going to be -- that is what I mean. A tidal wave -- they will be like footprints in the sand when a tidal wave comes. I don't know why I keep using that metaphor, but...
ZAHN: It works. Why not? GREENFIELD: It is going to be so overwhelming that here, at every other network, that's going to be the story, for good or ill.
ZAHN: Jeff, thanks for stopping by...
GREENFIELD: OK.
ZAHN: ... on the holiday.
GREENFIELD: Yes, indeed.
ZAHN: Good luck with gridlock today. Now our favorite day for those of us trying to get around the city...
(CROSSTALK)
GREENFIELD: One word: subways.
ZAHN: Subways. That is the only way to travel today. Believe me.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired March 17, 2003 - 09:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Some might say that if the Azores summit proves anything, it is that President Bush will go the extra 5,000 miles for diplomacy. He is giving it one last chance to work, but war appears more certain now than ever, though. So the president can't be happy with reports of infighting among members of his war council.
Secretary of State Powell had this day to say on one of the Sunday talk shows.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: To the extent that I can contribute to the debate on war plans and the discussion on war plans, I did so. But this business that somehow I am in some kind of fight with Tommy Franks over his war plan is nonsense.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Joining us now with more on how the administration is doing, our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield. Good morning.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Top of the morning, Paula.
ZAHN: Top of the morning to you. Happy St. Patrick's day.
So for an administration that prides itself on having such a disciplined message, it must be in pain over these reports -- widely reported, I might add, of a lot of infighting and folks not being on the same page.
GREENFIELD: Yes, absolutely. It has been remarkable. For two years, friend and foe alike have absolutely marveled at the relative lack of infighting and back biting, compared with past administrations. This one has tended to speak with one voice, and yet, over the last five days as they apparently lost control of the diplomatic efforts, you have had a series of stories in the major papers, in the "New York Times," in the "Washington Post," where allegedly bad feelings between Colin Powell's State Department, and Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney's forces have been evident.
Yesterday, the Sunday talk shows filled with comments like disaster, bad week for the president, reports, in fact, that the president was angry at both Powell and Rumsfeld. "Newsweek" out today has a very similar story. And, as you say, Paula, it's remarkable that this time, on the eve of war, we're getting these kinds of stories.
ZAHN: It is a pretty obvious question, but why now?
GREENFIELD: Well, I think part of it is, for the first time since 9/11, there is a sense that the competence issue has arisen. This administration never seemed to mind when critics complained about unilateralism, you are flexing your muscles, there was at least some sense of look, they don't have to like us as long as they respect us. With Afghanistan, they could say, We told you. It was a relatively quick, relatively cost-free victory. There were celebrations in the streets, Americans as liberators. But the picture now is that they couldn't even get a majority in the Security Council, they couldn't even get Turkey to go along with billions of dollars in aid -- or bribes -- which means the war will be more complicated, and you'll remember, John Kennedy said, after the bay of pigs, "Victory has a thousand fathers, and defeat is an orphan." Defeat also has -- or, at least, some kind of defeat, diplomatic, has a thousand kibitzers.
ZAHN: In all fairness, though, you can't really call this a defeat yet, the war hasn't even started.
GREENFIELD: And I think that's really the key to this, that for all of this bad news -- and there is some bad news for the Bush administration, not just the stories, but shaky job approval numbers, his reelect numbers suggest some possibility of political trouble, but the fact is, I think, all of it will just be overwhelmed by a tidal wave once the war begins. If it is relatively quick, relatively bloodless, if Iraqis greet Americans as liberators, all those negative stories, I think, will be forgotten, and if it goes badly, that's going to be the story, Paula, and not what happened in the runnup -- so you are right.
ZAHN: Help us explore the public opinion polls. The latest CNN Gallup Poll would suggest that the president has gained support for diplomatic push over the last couple weeks. There is still some underlying weaknesses, if you don't go for the second resolution, but overall the president has to be pretty satisfied with these numbers, doesn't he?
GREENFIELD: Well, basically, it's -- look, let's go. We know this is going to happen, let's get it over with, I think the behavior of the French and other alleged allies have really helped put more Americans behind the Bush administration, and I think when the war starts, and I think it's when, you are going to see a huge spike in Bush's job approval because people do rally around. It's only if the war has really bad consequences, a quagmire, terrorist attacks, some awful consequence, that the public, the American public traditionally then tends to say what's going on? But in the first days, those numbers are going to go through the roof.
ZAHN: And these stories that we heard widely reported over the weekend will seem all but moot, no traction.
GREENFIELD: They are going to be -- that is what I mean. A tidal wave -- they will be like footprints in the sand when a tidal wave comes. I don't know why I keep using that metaphor, but...
ZAHN: It works. Why not? GREENFIELD: It is going to be so overwhelming that here, at every other network, that's going to be the story, for good or ill.
ZAHN: Jeff, thanks for stopping by...
GREENFIELD: OK.
ZAHN: ... on the holiday.
GREENFIELD: Yes, indeed.
ZAHN: Good luck with gridlock today. Now our favorite day for those of us trying to get around the city...
(CROSSTALK)
GREENFIELD: One word: subways.
ZAHN: Subways. That is the only way to travel today. Believe me.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
