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CNN LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE
War: Two Hours Away?
Aired March 19, 2003 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS' MONEYLINE for Wednesday, March 19. Here now Lou Dobbs.
DOBBS: Good evening.
War could be only two hours away. Saddam Hussein has refused to leave Iraq. President Bush met with his top national security advisers today. The White House said any war led by U.S. forces will be as short as possible, but it warned Americans to be prepared for loss of life.
Senior White House correspondent, John King, reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Heading into the morning National Security Council meeting, the question on deadline day not if but when to strike.
ARI FLEISCHER, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The president will be guided by the best military advice available, and that will help shape his decision.
KING: Officials say sandstorms, the pace of forward deployments, and other field conditions are the driving factor now, not the Wednesday night deadline for Saddam Hussein to accept exile or face war.
In this letter, Mr. Bush formally notified Congress he intends to use military force, saying he had determined further diplomatic and other peaceful means alone will neither adequately protect the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq, nor likely lead to the enforcement of all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions.
The White House said the president hopes the war will be as precise and short as possible but that there would be an inevitable price.
FLEISCHER: American people understand that, if force is used, lives may be lost, indeed. I think there's no question the country understands that.
KING: A mounting financial cost as well. New York City's mayor appealed for help defending against possible terrorist attacks here at home and was promised the emergency war budget will include more money for homeland security.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: Now the national security team was back at the White House this evening. The war planning sessions now twice a day. That a reflection of the sense of urgency. Senior officials tell us the president's go orders could come at any time now.
But, as Mr. Bush awaits a recommendation from the Pentagon, we're also told he sees no harm at all, as one aide put it, of leaving the Iraqi military staring up at the sky for a little bit -- Lou.
DOBBS: John, the White House plan, the president's plan, once the decision is taken to move those troops into Iraq?
KING: As soon as the president believes it would not violate operational security, he would deliver an Oval Office address to the American people announcing that hostilities are under way.
He will await, of course -- as one aide put it, when Iraq knows there's a war under way, then the president will feel safe telling the American people.
DOBBS: John, thank you very much.
Senior White House correspondent, John King.
DOBBS: Long columns of coalition troops and vehicles moved up to the Iraqi border today. Coalition aircraft bombed 10 Iraqi artillery positions near the frontier. Seventeen Iraqi troops surrendered to U.S. forces.
Senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre has the report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Swirling sandstorms in southern Iraq is one factor, sources say, that could prompt U.S. commanders to wait at least another day before launching the invasion northward.
Even before the deadline expired, U.S. jets on no-fly zone patrols struck multiple targets in the South, including 10 Iraqi artillery pieces on the Al Faw Peninsula capable of firing chemical shells and a surface-to-surface missile launcher around the Basra area. Both were in range of the 130,000 U.S. troops massing along the Iraqi border.
Unlike in 1991, the U.S. already has air superiority over most of Iraq, even before the war starts.
COL. GARY CROWDER, AIR COMBAT COMMAND, USAF: We are starting off in a significantly better position as a consequence of the northern and southern no-fly zones, which will enable operations that might not otherwise have been able to commence. MCINTYRE: Pentagon sources say more air strikes will be conducted overnight to prepare the battlefield, and U.S. troops may move into the demilitarized zone between Kuwait and Iraq in the next 24 hours. The idea is to break the Iraqi will with a show of force and a barrage of several million leaflets dropped in recent days.
CROWDER: The effects that we are trying to create is to make it so apparent and so overwhelming at the very outset of potential military operations that the adversary quickly realizes that there is no real alternative here other than to fight and die or to give up.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: Now these leaflets dropped today showed the -- give the precise instructions for the Iraqi military to capitulate, is the word they're using at the Pentagon.
It tells them to park their vehicles in a manner that -- in squares and then to move away from them, at least a kilometer away. Also tells them to stow their artillery, put their weapons down, put white flags on the vehicles.
Interestingly, it says that officers can retain their sidearms, but others have to disarm.
The basic instruction: Stay put, wait for the U.S. military to arrive, don't approach the U.S. military.
Already today, 17 Iraqi troops appear to be the first to actually surrender. They crossed the border into Kuwait, were quickly taken into custody by Kuwaiti officials -- Lou.
DOBBS: Jamie, give us, if you will, your sense of the pace, the atmosphere there at the Pentagon this evening.
MCINTYRE: Well, clearly, we're on the brink of war. There's some feeling at the Pentagon that they want to go as soon as it makes military sense. They don't want to wait too long.
On the other hand, there's also a feeling that when they wait that the pressure builds on the Iraqi military and the Iraqi leadership, and they really want to maximize that pressure, want them to be as nervous, as skittish as possible. They're hoping that that will help psychologically convince a lot of Iraqi troops to simply give up.
DOBBS: Jamie, thank you very much.
Jamie McIntyre, senior Pentagon correspondent.
Saddam Hussein apparently preparing to make his last stand. Bahrain today offered Saddam Hussein safe exile, but there are no signs he's prepared to accept the offer.
Senior international correspondent Nic Robertson is one of the few television correspondents now left in Baghdad, and he has the report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): Closed shops and emptying streets, the sign Baghdad's residents now fully expect war.
This shopping district, until a few days ago, bustling with busy shoppers. Now most of the city's five-million residents, it seems, are at home or have fled the capital.
Government officials giving no sign the leadership is about to buckle to U.S. demands.
MUHAMMED SAEED SAHAF, IRAQI FOREIGN MINISTER: They are deceiving their soldiers and their officers that aggression against Iraq and invading Iraq will be like a picnic. Well, this is a very stupid lie they are telling their soldiers. What they are facing is definite death.
ROBERTSON: At a hastily called extraordinary session of Iraq's National Assembly, the sentiment just as defiant.
SAADOON HAMMADI, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER (through translator): We are ready for all the sacrifices required for the legitimate defense of our land and principals, and the fate of this aggression which they talk about will be the same as before in history, and history will show their failure, disappointment, and will be a curse on them.
ROBERTSON (on camera): As it has so many times in the past, the assembly sent a letter of solidarity to President Saddam Hussein.
For most here now, the waiting seems to be over. The already visible signs of increasing security an indication of how the war will begin.
Hard to tell at this time how it will end or what the new political landscape may look like.
Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Some of the warplanes that struck targets on Iraq's southern no-fly zone today are based aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. The Navy's top commander in the Gulf region visited the carrier today to prepare the sailors for war.
Kyra Phillips reports from the Abraham Lincoln.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Getting ready for war and rallying up the troops -- that was the mission of Admiral Timothy Keating today as he flew from Bahrain here to the USS Abraham Lincoln. (voice-over): It's not a matter of if there will be a war but when the war will start. Admiral Keating says every diplomatic measure has been exhausted and that his job today was to report to his boss, General Tommy Franks, that the carriers are ready for conflict and so are the sailors.
Naval forces are moving closer to the beach to get ready for attack, and this reduces the reaction time for naval forces but increases the risk to naval vessels. Amphibious vessels are beginning to moving closer to Iraq into more shallow waters.
We're also told that if Iraqi President Saddam Hussein begins hostilities against Kuwait or any other country, U.S. forces are prepared to shift focus to deal with the new threat.
Strike fighter pilots continue Operation Southern Watch until the order is given to cross the 32nd parallel.
Surveillance missions reveal Saddam Hussein continues to reposition his surface-to-air missiles. He has figured out that if he leaves something in one place for a long enough time, then it will be targeted quickly.
Admiral Keating told the men and women today that you need to call home and tell your families that what you're about to be a part of is going to make history.
VICE ADM. TIMOTHY KEATING, COMMANDER, U.S. 5TH FLEET: We can achieve surprise by going about this particular conflict if we do it in a way that is a very unpredictable and is unprecedented in history -- remarkable speed, breathtaking speed, agility, precision, and persistence. If we go, the plans that we have are unlike anything anyone has ever seen before.
PHILLIPS (on camera): The clock is ticking. We're in the final minutes now. Troops and sailors are in position, ready for whatever the president says they have to do.
Aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, I'm Kyra Phillips, CNN.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Strategy in the event of war is to shock the Iraqi military into surrender with devastating firepower. One factor that could determine the timing of the assault is weather.
Joining me now is CNN Military Analyst General David Grange.
General, good to have you here.
BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), U.S. ARMY: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: The weather now -- obviously, a sandstorm sweeping across Southern Iraq. Is that likely to prevent the U.S. and British forces from moving this evening? GRANGE: Not necessarily. It's advantages and disadvantages. Of course, the sandstorm would affect air operations -- low-flying air operations like helicopters more than anything else and somewhat the movement of ground forces to acquire targets at long distances.
But, then again, a sandstorm like this or any kind of adverse weather is a friend to tough units that want to surprise or outflank or take audacious moves on enemy forces. So it can be your friend.
DOBBS: And, in your judgment, General, would you -- would you go tonight?
GRANGE: I would go tonight if the forces -- the commanders told me they were ready to go and not just from being fired up, motivated, but truly ready to go, and they would tell you that because they're responsible for those lives, and there's a lot of factors involved.
Are the troops ready? Are the logistics all in place? Is the political situation appropriate? Other factors like weather like you just mentioned. But if -- the key one is are they ready, and, if they're ready and the timing's right for the troops, then go for it.
DOBBS: The 3rd Army, the 101st, the Marines all lined up along that southern border of Iraq with Kuwait. Does it -- does it concern you that so much force is massed along one border?
GRANGE: The forces right now that appear to have been moving from assembly areas to attack positions, which is the last position before you cross the line of departure on a ground-moving element -- that's a dangerous time. It's a dangerous time for force protection. Enemy can fire, obviously, weapons at you.
That may be one reason the weapons were taken out that you mentioned earlier, the Iraqi artillery weapons, because they were just too close. There may have been an intercept of a signal that they may fire chemical munitions on our forces, whatever. But that's probably one reason they were eliminated...
DOBBS: General Grange...
GRANGE: ... and so, yes, it's a dangerous time.
DOBBS: General Grange is referring to the strike against 10 missiles in Southern Iraq south of Basra today by U.S. and British aircraft.
What is your judgment about the appropriate time to launch the cruise missiles, the air attack against principally Baghdad?
GRANGE: Well, I think that the key thing now, Lou, is that you have two hours 'til, hey, you're supposed to leave the country, whatever you're going to do. It looks like that's unlikely.
So the order could have already been given for D-day, for G-hour or ground hour, A-hour, air attack time to go ahead and start the strikes, or it could be a week from now. The beautiful thing about it is, for our forces in the area, the coalition forces, the Brits and the United States, Australians, et cetera, is that Saddam doesn't know when it's going to happen, and so there's a lot of stress put on Saddam and his forces, especially the forces under him that probably have very little communications.
They're used to getting disinformation from their leader, and so there's a lot of stress there, and that may be beneficial. So the time is of choosing from the coalition forces with many different factors considered.
DOBBS: General David Grange, as always, thank you.
GRANGE: My pleasure.
DOBBS: Still ahead, U.S. and British troops take up battle positions for an invasion of Iraq. The political coalition supporting a U.S.-led attack is growing every day. Former Defense Secretary, "MONEYLINE" regular contributor William Cohen will join me to discuss the value and importance of international support in the conflict that apparently lies ahead.
Border security has been increased as America prepares for war. We'll be going live to Bill Tucker at the Canadian border, live to Casey Wian at the Mexican border.
And, on Wall Street today, the S&P 500 and the Dow rose for a sixth straight time. The Dow up 71 points. Christine Romans will have the market.
And the cost of doing business when key staff have been called up for active duty in the military. Jan Hopkins has our special report.
That's next. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, the United States is on the brink of war. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld spent a good part of his day with the president at the White House.
Joining me is former Defense Secretary, regular MONEYLINE contributor William Cohen.
Bill, what is Secretary Rumsfeld doing, in your judgment, right now?
WILLIAM COHEN, FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: I think he's staying very much on top of the battle plan as such. He's listening to what the chairman of the Joint Chiefs is saying, who's in direct contact with General Tommy Franks from the front, trying to determine exactly when the best time to launch the attack would be, taking into account the weather, as you discussed before, other factors involved to make sure everything is precise.
DOBBS: You heard me ask General Grange whether he would go this evening, and his answer was depending upon the condition of the troops, the readiness of the troops, and not simply their -- if you will, their motivation level at this point, that he would. What's your assessment?
COHEN: I think it depends upon what the sequence of forces is going to be, as far as General Franks is concerned, taking into account all of these contingencies mainly.
We've been talking about shock and awe. Well, there may be a lot of shocking going on quickly but maybe less awe, if you don't have the ground forces and the helicopter forces moving nearly simultaneously. So, taking into account what their battle plan is, you make that judgment.
I don't think any of us can make that at this particular point.
DOBBS: Do you believe that the president has already made his decision on timing, that the -- that General Tommy Franks has made his decision as to when to begin this attack?
COHEN: I believe they have. I think they may fine-tune it at the last moment or second to make sure everything is in place, but there's no doubt in my mind that the president's already made the decision to go, that the letter going up to Congress is a formality as such.
I haven't seen the letter, but I suspect it says something like consistent with the War Powers Resolution, rather than compliant with, because few presidents, if any, have ever recognized the constitutionality of the War Powers Act.
But I think he'll say consistent with, and that letter's already been sent, as far as I know.
DOBBS: And, in point of fact, President Bush has been anticipatory of the joint congressional resolution passed last October, which called upon the White House to inform them. He's done so, I believe, 48 hours before, assuming action were to begin this evening, 48 hours in advance on the -- on -- to meet the terms of the resolution.
Thirty-three countries now, 15 others that do not wish to be named, have joined this coalition of the willing. Even the French are seemingly trying to find a way in which now to add support of some sort to the cause. Give us your judgment.
COHEN: Well, success has many fathers, and, in this particular case, I think, once the die has been cast and the president has determined to go forward, I think other countries -- seeing that they are allies of the United States and even in spite of any local discontent, they are prepared to support the United States, and we're likely to see even more come forward as this thing unfolds.
DOBBS: Militarily, those who, as it were, join up in -- or are last-minute conversions are unlikely to be helpful to the British and to the United States militarily. Is there anything strategically that they can offer that would be positive?
COHEN: Well, some might have some chemical weapons facilities capabilities that they could contribute at a later time. I think only those forces who have been jointly training, preparing, and deploying with U.S. forces are going to be really effective in the initial phases.
DOBBS: The attacks, which we have been reporting and discussing this evening, against the missiles in Southern Iraq, great concern that those had chemical warheads. Do you believe that Saddam Hussein has and will use chemical weapons against our troops?
COHEN: I believe he has them. I think he would be very foolish to use them. It would rob him of the kind of victimhood that he's seeking, that he has declared time and time again for the 12 years he has none, to -- for him to use them at this time would just tear away any pretense that he has had, and I think then the call for the world to come down on top of Iraq and support the United States.
DOBBS: So you don't think he would?
COHEN: I don't think he will. Again, a big mistake if he does. We'll be able to cope with it. But, nonetheless, it certainly would call for a much more robust response even than we currently plan.
Bill Cohen, always good to have you here.
COHEN: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: Thank you.
Coming up next, forget the United Nations. The list of countries who support the war against Saddam Hussein is growing by the hour seemingly. Kitty Pilgrim will have the report for us -- Kitty.
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, more countries today were willing to stand up and be counted. Forty-five countries now support U.S. action in Iraq -- Lou.
DOBBS: Thanks, Kitty.
We'll also take you inside the command center of the USS Constellation, one of five aircraft carriers now preparing for battle in the Persian Gulf.
And Wolf Blitzer will have the latest developments for us live from Kuwait.
Those stories and more straight ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Still ahead here, public health officials have made a breakthrough in fighting the mysterious new pneumonia-like illness that sickened dozens around the world.
Also, we'll have a special report for you tonight from the 101st Airborne. Soldiers there are awaiting their final orders to attack.
That and a great deal more coming right up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The United Nations Security Council hasn't given up on the issue of Iraq, at least as a topic of discussion.
The foreign ministers of France and Germany today said it was illegal for the Bush administration to remove Saddam Hussein from power, and Russia today maintained there is no proof Iraq poses a threat to the United States.
Those countries are now in an isolated minority. International support for military action against Iraq is growing.
Kitty Pilgrim has the report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM (voice-over): The coalition of the willing is breaking through the record of support set back in the 1991 Gulf War.
Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday named 30 countries who back U.S. action, adding that 15 more countries offered support but did not want to be named.
Today, more countries stepped forward off of the anonymous list -- Honduras, Singapore, and Portugal.
NILE GARDINER, THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION: The most significant aspect, I think, of this international coalition, which now includes 45 nations in total, is that it includes actually 18 European countries, including the vast majority of the new European nations of Central and Eastern Europe.
So, quite clearly, France, Germany, and Russia, the main opponents of military action in Europe are actually in a minority position.
PILGRIM: One of the first supporters of U.S. military action was Britain. Prime Minister Tony Blair, after impassioned pleas to his government this week, swept the vote in parliament, 412 to 149.
Spain's Jose Maria Aznar was another early supporter, rallying more than a dozen European countries to the U.S. position.
Now other leaders are stepping forward, including Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, even though Japan, by its Constitution, can not participate in military action.
State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher said countries would participate even if it was in a non-combat role.
RICHARD BOUCHER, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: They may just be allowing access, overflight, or other participation in that way. PILGRIM: Poland has said it would commit 200 non-combat troops. The Netherlands will contribute three Patriot missile batteries and 360 men for the defense of Turkey. The Czech Republic and Slovakia have sent 400 anti-chemical warfare specialists, and Bulgaria offered 150 troops specializing in chemical decontamination. South Korea said it would consider sending non-combat troops as well.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: The number of supporters has been growing by the day, with many countries jumping on the list at the last moment. Many experts say it could expand to 50 nations very shortly, with the addition of countries from the Arab world and also from Asia -- Lou.
DOBBS: And, Kitty, it's worth putting this in context. Forty- five nations in the coalition of the willing. In 1991, how many nations in that coalition?
PILGRIM: There were 38, and so we're well advanced from that, and they do expect many more to jump on.
DOBBS: It's remarkable the number of columnists who continue to talk about the isolation of the United States on the issue of Iraq with that number of people joining this coalition.
PILGRIM: Willing to support on the record, and numbers don't lie.
DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much.
Kitty Pilgrim.
Just ahead, tens of thousands of U.S. and British troops are now gathered in Kuwait, preparing to advance across the Iraqi border. Wolf Blitzer is in Kuwait City. We'll have the very latest from Wolf.
Former CIA Analyst Ken Pollack will be here to discuss Iraq's possible retaliatory plan, including a special look at two of Saddam Hussein's most faithful allies, his sons.
And protecting our borders. Stepped-up efforts well under way. We'll tell you how they're working. We'll have a special report from our borders with Canada and Mexico.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The Iraqi/Kuwaiti border today, the site of several key military developments.
Warplanes struck 10 Iraqi artillery pieces in southern Iraq. The positions were believed to be in range of U.S. troops preparing to invade Iraq.
Also today, 17 Iraqi soldiers surrendered to U.S. troops in Northern Kuwait.
Joining me now from Kuwait City with more is Wolf Blitzer -- Wolf.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Lou, as you know, more than a hundred thousand U.S. troops are poised on the border, along the border, between Kuwait and Iraq. They're backed up by about another 30,000, 35,000 British forces, a lot of U.S. soldiers and Marines. They're ready. They're just waiting for the order to move in. These troops have been gearing up, obviously, their entire military career precisely for what is about to happen. They're just waiting for the green light to move into southern Iraq.
The situation there is quite tense. Earlier today, there was some significant sandstorms here in Kuwait, sandstorms that are of most concern to ground forces, especially attack helicopters. The sand could play some havoc with those helicopters. They're not much concern to U.S. airpower, because most of the bombs that will be dropped during the first 48 hours of this war, we're told, will be those satellite-guided sophisticated precision kind of smart bombs that will be guided by the GPS satellite system. And sand doesn't not have any effect as far as those bombs are concerned.
Here in Kuwait City, remember, this is a pretty affluent, oil- rich country. People, though, are nervous. They're stocking up. They're going about their day-to-day activities, but they're also shopping. We went to some of the stores here. And they're looking for all the things that Americans are looking for when they get nervous about terrorist strikes. Here in Kuwait, very close to Iraq, they're buying everything from water and batteries to duct tape and everything else.
But the Kuwaiti government is pretty confident that the U.S. military is going to provide the necessary umbrella of protection. And, as a result, they're going about their day-to-day activities. Some families have left, but most Kuwaitis, as you know, Lou, they have stayed here in Kuwait -- Lou.
DOBBS: The Kuwaitis are remarkably resilient people, suffering, of course, the Iraqi invasion in 1991.
The mood there is what, Wolf, amongst the population of Kuwait?
BLITZER: The mood among the population -- remember, these Kuwaitis -- and they're strongly supportive of President Bush and the U.S. government. This is an Arab country that bitterly remembers what happened when the Iraqis came in, the seven months of Iraqi occupation, when the country was effectively looted by Iraqi soldiers.
They remember that there are still some 600 Kuwaitis who are listed as prisoners in Iraq. They assume they're alive. They are hoping, some day, they'll come back. They want this war to be over with. They want it to be over with quickly. And they are quite confident it will.
I spoke with the Kuwaiti minister of foreign affairs, Dr. Mohammed Al-Sabah, earlier today. And he thinks that the tip of the iceberg, the defections, the arrests earlier today, those 17 Iraqi soldiers, those numbers are going to escalate very dramatically in the coming hours and days.
DOBBS: Strong winds, as our pictures have shown viewers throughout the day here on CNN, sweeping across southern Iraq and Kuwait. The weather there now, Wolf? It looks very calm.
BLITZER: Well, at night, it's very calm. It's not very windy right now. And it gets into the 60s, the 70s Fahrenheit. During the day, it's in the 80s, sometimes in the 90s. Right now, the weather is not a significant factor, except for those sandstorms.
If this war does last several, several weeks, then it starts getting really hot, in April, May, especially May and June. But, right now, weather is not going to be a significant factor.
DOBBS: Wolf Blitzer from Kuwait City -- Wolf, thank you.
Soldiers of the Army's 101st Airborne Division today made final preparations for battle. There's not much left for the soldiers to do but wait for orders to attack.
Ryan Chilcote reports from Camp New Jersey, Kuwait.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Ryan Chilcote at camp New Jersey with the 101st Airborne.
Well, there's not a whole lot left for the soldiers to do to get ready. The recreation tent is now officially closed and all of the training is over. At this point, it's pretty much down to the grunts and their rucksacks. And I can tell you, at least for my tent, the soldiers, they've repacked their bags it seems at least 10 times today.
A lot of soldiers are still lining up at the AT&T calling center to phone home, a lot of conversations beginning with the words, "I don't know when I'll be able to talk to you next, but I will be OK." As one soldier put it, they now feel like they're in the calm before the storm. There's a real feeling here among the soldiers that they're about to become part of something much larger than themselves and that they're going to be all right -- back to you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: My guest tonight said the Iraqi people will likely see U.S. and British forces as liberators, at least initially. CNN analyst Kenneth Pollack laid out the case for going to war with Saddam Hussein in his book "The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq." He's also a director of the Saban Center of the Brookings Institution and joins us tonight from our studios in Washington.
Ken, good to have you here.
KENNETH POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Nice to be here, Lou.
DOBBS: As we're apparently on the eve of battle, what do you think will be the reaction of the Iraqi military? And, certainly, let's begin with the southern part of Iraq.
POLLACK: Sure.
Well, mostly, what we have in the southern part of Iraq, Lou, are regular army formations. These are mostly conscripts. They're not very happy to be in the army. Many of them have been in the army for 10 or even 20 years, fighting Iran, fighting the U.S. in Desert Storm. And they've been stuck there ever since. They have low and intermittent pay. They don't have good access to food or other supplies.
And I think that the 17 soldiers that over came across the border are probably only the start of what's likely to be a much bigger surge in surrenders and simply defections, once the U.S. forces cross the border. I think that everyone's expectation is that Iraq's regular army is not going to put up much of a fight.
DOBBS: And your expectation, Ken?
POLLACK: It falls in the same line. I don't think that the Iraqi regular army is going to put up much of a fight. The big issue is with Iraq's elite units, the Republican Guard and the Special Republican Guard.
I think there's every expectation that the Special Republican Guard, which is a force of about 20,000 to 25,000 troops, drawn mostly from Saddam's own tribe and other very loyal tribes -- these are the goon squad that Saddam uses to police Baghdad -- they're almost certainly going to fight with him. They've been brainwashed. They get brought into the army at very young ages and get taught that Saddam is their savior, he is this great messianic figure. They get all kinds of perks from Saddam. They're likely to fight hard.
The interesting group is the middle group, the Republican Guard. The Republican Guard are the best combat troops in Iraq. Now, that's still not very good. And people made the big mistake in 1991 of constantly referring to the Republican Guard as the elite Republican Guard, which made people think they were as good as we were. They're not.
But they are the best troops in Iraq. And what we did see in 1991 was, they were willing to fight very hard when we fought them in Desert Storm. They didn't fight well, but they fought very hard. And, this time around, the question is, how hard will they fight to defend Saddam? If they're fighting in Baghdad -- and most of the Guard divisions are around Baghdad -- they could give us a tougher fight than before.
But I think, even there, the expectation is, even the Guard is probably not likely to put up the same kind of a horrific fight that they fought down in Kuwait. But, nevertheless, if you're a U.S. military commander, you have got to assume the worst. DOBBS: And the shock-and-awe strategy that will be employed by our military, it calls, in some assessments, for one in 10 buildings in Baghdad to be destroyed. Give us an assessment of what you think the casualties will be amongst civilians, because Saddam Hussein has placed many important strategic military facilities in civilian areas.
POLLACK: I'll be honest with you, Lou. I don't expect huge numbers of Iraqi civilian casualties from U.S. operations. I think that the military is going to be extremely discriminating. Talking with them myself, I know just how sensitive they are to Iraqi civilian casualties. They understand that this is a war to try to liberate the Iraqi people, not to try to harm them. And they want to be very careful about that.
I think the bigger threat to Iraq's civilians, unfortunately, comes from Saddam's forces themselves. It is one of the great ironies of this war that we care much more about Saddam's people than he does. And, in fact, I think the real risk out there is that Saddam is going to see it in his best interests to kill as many people as he can to create other humanitarian problems for us, doing things like expelling large numbers of the Shiite population of Baghdad as a way of creating a humanitarian crisis that we have to deal with that will hinder our operations toward Baghdad.
So, I actually -- I think that the civilian casualties from our operations will be low. But, certainly, my hope -- and I know that the military is doing everything that they can to prevent that. The bigger issue out there is how much damage Saddam does to his own people.
DOBBS: Kenneth Pollack, good to have you with us.
POLLACK: Always good to be here. Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: Earlier in this broadcast, Kyra Phillips reported on preparations for war aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, one of five carriers within striking distance of Iraq.
Frank Buckley now reports from the command center of another carrier, the USS Constellation.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We're getting a rare opportunity to look inside right now the tactical flag command center. This is the location from which the Constellation battle group commander, Rear Admiral Barry Costello, can monitor information, receive information in real time during any operation. He gets tracks on all of the ships at sea in this area, all of the aircraft in real time, and can, at any moment, call up the position of all of the ground troops in the area.
Now, right now, the admiral is not in this room, but the battle watch captain is on station. And he's seated right here. Just beyond him is a computer screen. And that's how the ships in this region actually communicate with each other. In the secure chat rooms, they send each other messages.
Now, you have all of this technology in this room, but, also, you have something right over here that really looks like something from the World War II era. It's a map that the admiral calls his puck board, all of those little squares there indicating a different ship at sea in this area.
So, again, this is the tactical flag command center aboard the USS Constellation.
I'm Frank Buckley, CNN, aboard the Constellation in the Persian Gulf.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Coming up: They separate us from the rest of the world, but millions of people cross our borders each year, many perhaps undetected. Border security has been stepped up over this heightened period of alert. Is it enough? We'll be going live to our northern border, Fort Erie, Canada, and to our border with Mexico: San Ysidro, California.
Bill Tucker in Canada covering the story for us -- Bill.
BILL TUCKER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, tightened security makes for slow and cautious going at America's northernmost border.
DOBBS: And Casey Wian in San Ysidro, California -- Casey.
CASEY WIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, this is the biggest land border crossing in the world. We'll tell you what officials here are doing to keep terrorists out -- Lou.
DOBBS: Casey, thank you.
And new developments tonight in the mystery flu-like illness that has claimed more than a dozen lives as it's spread around the world -- those stories, a whole lot more, when we continue.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, this country is on a heightened state of alert for terrorist attacks. Security has been increased in major cities and airports across America. And the Coast Guard has stepped up its patrols along the coastlines.
Tonight, we take a special look at our borders with Canada and Mexico. Bill Tucker is across the border from Buffalo, New York, in Fort Erie, Canada. Casey Wian is in San Ysidro, California.
We begin our coverage with Bill Tucker -- Bill.
TUCKER: Lou, as tensions mount, concerns about border security bring tightened security measures. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER (voice-over): It's slow-going at the Canadian border: traffic and trade subject to delays and random inspections, inspections which can include scanning truck cargoes for radiation sources and being X-rayed for hidden cargo and people.
ED DUDA, U.S. BORDER PATROL: Compared to this time prior to 9/11, the Border Patrol agents that are protecting the New York border has doubled. We have double the resources. We have air support now. We have a helicopter. We never had that before. We also have more Marine patrols. So we're definitely in a better position than we were prior to 9/11.
TUCKER: It takes more than just one side to secure a border. And Canada is working in partnership with the United States.
GRAHAM NOSEWORTHY, CANADA CUSTOMS & REVENUE AGENCY: And, right now, what we're doing is an increased vigilance with regard to the numbers of inspections, the review of documentation, the basic questioning that's taking place, so that we can facilitate the orderly transfer of goods and traffic across the bridge, in concert with the U.S. Customs Service.
TUCKER: But it's not just a matter of securing the border. It's the United States longest border and it is the border of America's largest trading partner.
ANDREW RUDNICK, BUFFALO NIAGARA PARTNERSHIP: More trade crosses one of our bridges than crosses the entire Mexican-U.S. border in a year; 40 percent of that trade crosses the bridges within eyesight of this office.
TUCKER: The primary concern among business groups is not terrorism, but that worry about terrorism will slow trade dramatically and hurt both the United States and Canadian economies.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER: But then there is this stark reminder, Lou, that Buffalo, which across the river here from me here in Fort Erie, Canada, is home to the alleged al Qaeda sleeper cell known as the Lackawanna seven, where the defendants are waiting trial -- Lou.
DOBBS: Bill, thank you.
We now move 2,600 miles to the southwest, where Casey Wian has a report on security at the U.S. border with Mexico -- Casey?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN (voice-over): Commuters and tourists crossing into the United States from Mexico are already feeling the effects of tighter border security.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's been too slow, 35 to 40 minutes. WIAN (on camera): Thirty-five, 40-minute wait? What's it on a normal day?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: On a normal day, five minutes.
WIAN: Why do you think it's longer?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: For the war.
WIAN (voice-over): Meanwhile, trucks filled with television, clothes and seafood now get a closer look. Since 9/11, drivers have grown accustomed to drug and bomb-sniffing dogs, X-ray inspections, and detailed document checks. Since the nation's terrorism threat level was raised to orange Monday, they're more frequent and more thorough.
JOSEPH MISENHELTER, U.S. CUSTOMS: Increased scrutiny of travelers coming in, merchandise coming in, increased exams of cars, of the people, of the documents. Of course, what we're trying to do is recognize the wait-time issues on the traveling public. There may be some minimal impact.
WIAN: Border checkpoints have increased perimeter patrols and taken steps to keep parked cars away.
San Ysidro, which separates San Diego from Tijuana, is the world's busiest land border crossing, handling up to 60,000 cars and 35,000 pedestrians daily. Close inspections are nothing new here because of recent crackdowns on illegal immigrants and drugs entering the United States. The search for terrorists has not stopped those efforts. Two weeks ago, agents here seized 20,000 pounds of marijuana, the largest bust ever on the Southwest border.
But terrorism has moved to the top of the list. The Border Patrol, for example, is shifting personnel from nonessential functions to guarding the border. Officials here say war or an increase in the threat level to red will bring even closer inspections of people and cargo.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're scared. If they shut the border, what are we going to do?
WIAN: But the Homeland Security Department stresses, there are no plans to close the border.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WIAN: As one Border Patrol agent puts it, it has been a quiet day so far. But if that changes, he says, we'll be ready -- Lou.
DOBBS: Casey, thank you -- Casey Wian from San Ysidro, California.
New developments tonight in the investigation of the severe pneumonia-like outbreak that has spread across the globe. Scientists now say the illness may be linked to the family of viruses that causes measles and mumps. But they still don't know what causes the disease. Investigators also say now that at least seven of the people who died stayed in the same hotel in Hong Kong. Severe acute respiratory syndrome, as it's called, has now killed 14 people worldwide, infected 264 others. There are now 11 suspected cases in this country.
Still ahead tonight: Fortune 500 companies make up the difference in pay for reservists and Guard members who are called up to active duty. But reservists from small businesses aren't that fortunate. Jan Hopkins will have that story for us tonight.
HealthSouth becomes the latest example of corporate corruption. The company has been accused of committing massive accounting fraud -- that story and more still ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: You're looking at live pictures of Baghdad, live pictures of the Al-Rashid Bridge in Baghdad.
Forty-six percent of our military manpower comes from the National Guard and reserves. These men and women leave behind their jobs and businesses when they're called up for active duty. Those who come from small business face additional challenges.
Jan Hopkins has their story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LT. COL. STEPHEN BROZAK, U.S. MARINE CORPS: Hi there. How are you?
JAN HOPKINS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Lieutenant Colonel Steve Brozak is on active duty. He's also president of a small biotech research company. The firm had offices on Wall Street, until 9/11 forced him to move out of New York. Now he's running the company in his off hours, with the help of his West Coast partner.
BROZAK: She picks up a tremendous amount of slack. And then my research staff happens to be practicing physicians, so they understand what it's like to work on a tight schedule.
HOPKINS: Lieutenant Colonel Brozak is lucky. He has nights and weekends off. His assignment is in the Washington office that provides employer support for the Guard and reserves. Large companies, like Pfizer and IBM, pay the difference between Guard and reserve pay and an employee's pay while they're on duty.
Small businesses rarely can afford to do that. But a few go the extra mile, including CSI Aviation Services in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
RET. MAJ. GEN. BOB HOLLINGSWORTH, U.S. MARINE CORPS: They have got about 45 people employed. They have got one person in that organization that has been mobilized. And, even at that small level, they're matching the salary. HOPKINS: Jobs are protected by law for those called for duty. They also have access to reduced interest rates on loans and mortgages. And they're protected from legal action and eviction.
The Small Business Administration provides loans to companies hurt by the call-up. Reserve and Guard families get help as well. At this Marine support center on Long Island, officers cut through red tape and answer questions from the home front.
LT. COL. PATRICK COFFEY, U.S. MARINE CORPS: Most guys would rather be called and do what they're trained to do than not. And I think the burden probably lies in family separation.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOPKINS: At this point, 212,000 National Guard and reserves have been called for active duty out of a trained pool of 900,000. As many as a half of these come from small businesses -- Lou.
DOBBS: Small business still the biggest employer in the country.
HOPKINS: That's right.
DOBBS: Thank you very much, Jan.
Well, on Wall Street today, the Dow rose for a sixth straight session. That hasn't happened, believe it or not, for 2 1/2 half years.
Christine Romans is here now with more on the rally -- Christine.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, consumer stocks led the Dow and the S&P 500 higher. Altria, Merck, Procter & Gamble up at least $1. The Dow is now up 10 percent in six days, the average stock up another 25 cents today.
And energy relief continued. Crude slid another 6 percent. Software stocks kept a lid on the Nasdaq, thanks to disappointing Oracle results. Disney warned that tourism has stalled. It cut its profit targets. And Barry Diller resigned from his post at Vivendi Universal to focus on his USA Interactive business -- Lou.
DOBBS: Christine, thank you very much.
Last week, Bristol-Myers restated earnings, didn't it?
ROMANS: It sure did, four years of earnings. And now it's restating two more years. Shareholders have lost 60 percent, Lou, in three years. Criticism of management running deep there. CEO Peter Dolan has not given up his million-dollar-plus performance bonus -- performance bonus -- for 2001. That's a year that saw $1.4 billion in accounting mistakes, Lou.
DOBBS: Well, two restatements in less than a year, that's quite a performance.
Christine, thank you very much.
A stunning new corporate corruption case today brought against HealthSouth and its CEO. FBI agents last night raided the company's Alabama headquarters. This morning, the SEC charged the company and CEO Richard Scrushy with a massive $1.4 billion accounting fraud, further alleging that Scrushy falsely certified those results last year with the SEC.
The government does have a witness. Former CFO Weston Smith today agreed to plead guilty to participating in the illegal scheme. The Justice Department revealed the investigation just began seven days ago, adding that additional criminal charges are expected. No comment from HealthSouth.
Coming up next, I'll have a few thoughts about the troops who will fight that war for their country, perhaps beginning this evening.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: Tomorrow on LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE: the very latest developments in the showdown with Iraq. Chairman of the Defense Policy Board Richard Perle and General David Grange will join us to discuss strategy for a U.S.-led strike on Iraq -- tomorrow on LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Saddam Hussein's rejection of the president's ultimatum means that we are likely headed toward war. It's an appropriate time for all of us to reflect upon the young men and women of our military who will be going into combat. We pray for them and desperately hope they know how proud and grateful we are for their service to this great country.
Over the past several months, there's been spirited and sometimes furious debate about the proper course of action on the issue of Iraq and Saddam Hussein. That debate has stirred occasionally rancorous partisan passions. But partisanship in this country means a debate between patriots and patriots, not between patriots and those opposed to our national interests.
The debate, no matter which side of the debate you have supported and urged, has strengthened our democracy. And now the debate ebbs and we give our full support to the military, who I hope will be proud of how we care for our way of life while they go into harm's way to protect us and this country.
That's MONEYLINE for this Wednesday evening. Thanks for being with us.
Join us tomorrow. Our guests will include Chairman of the Defense Policy Board Richard Perle and General David Grange. Middle East experts Youssef Ibrahim and Fawa Zurgis (ph) will be here.
Thanks for being with us tonight.
For all of us here, good night from New York City.
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