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Analyst of War Seemingly Ever Changing Strategies; Interview With Abdul-Rida Assiri

Aired March 20, 2003 - 11:27   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Joining us right now is Mike Turner, Colonel Mike Turner who once played a very important role in briefing General Norman Schwarzkopf. He's been monitoring this news conference as well.
What do you think is the most important thing you learned?

COL. MIKE TURNER (RET.), U.S. AIR FORCE: Well, I think what's critical is what Secretary Rumsfeld alluded to as essentially the difference between this war and any previous war. Now he was speaking entirely in military dimension and that's certainly true. We were a conventional army fighting a conventional army deployed in the field. But I'd expand is beyond that to the larger strategic objectives of the two sides. Our objectives here are principally military and as he is the head of the Iraqi military it's a purely militarization objective to remove him from power.

On the other hand, I have to believe faced with the awesome might of what he's facing that Saddam Hussein's object is almost entirely political. For that reason, he achieves to achieve a political victory and inflict a foreign policy and political defeat on the United States which takes on a different dimension. It moves to the top of his list, destroying oil fields, inflicting casualties on his civilian population, certainly striking Israel if he has the compasity to do that and destroying his own infrastructure. If he is going to somehow think that he is going to survive an exile, then a political victory against the United States would position him to have some hope of survival.

ZAHN: Let's talk about what the secretary of defense didn't say about what happened last night. He said the damage estimate is pending on that small complex where it is building that the Iraqi military leadership and perhaps political leadership were meeting. What did you read between the lines about Saddam Hussein's fate? He said there is a debate about whether the tape we saw last night was the real thing or not.

TURNER: Well, I think Secretary Rumsfeld and the chairman are very careful about expectations about predictions and about departing from known facts. As in a fast-breaking crisis, and I remember quite clearly during Desert Storm, we would hear the raw data come into the desks and present that to the senior leadership and we would watch how it was reported on television and very often it was accurate, though limited. Sometimes it was off the mark. And because they are in the process of trying to execute a very complex military operation, it is simply disadvantageous to the senior military to try to project what might or might not have happened. And he's sticking to the facts. And I that's a very safe and prudent thing to do when troops are about to go into harms way.

ZAHN: The team though was asked a very pointed question about saying all along that Saddam Hussein wasn't the target of the war and General Myers said, look, the regime command and control is a legitimate target in a war. If Saddam Hussein isn't captured or killed, do you think the public perception would be that this war had been a failure?

TURNER: I don't know that that's the case. We really need to be careful about predictions in this kind of a fluid and dynamic environment. However, the President has quite clearly stated that Saddam Hussein needs to go. And he has defined go, leave, in any number of different ways. So however we choose to define him leaving and being removed from power would be essentially a total success for the United States.

And legitimately, I don't know how Saddam Hussein can at this point, honestly believe that he would not have to leave one way or another at some time in the very near future. He is very unpredictable. It's very difficult to try and attribute any sort of rational logic process to Saddam Hussein, which of course is why he's so dangerous. But I think he needs to leave, as the President has clearly stated, and that needs to be the outcome for us to be able to declare a victory.

ZAHN: Colonel Turner having worked along General Schwarzkopf during Desert Storm, I'd love for you to put this into perspective. It's something that Senator, excuse me, that Secretary Rumsfeld mentioned this morning that there are 35 nations untied in this effort in addition to some nations that are working on this privately, and he said the coalition is much bigger than the coalition formed in 1991.

TURNER: Yes, that gave me pause. We had a viable solid Arab coalition. We had Arab units on the ground. It was a clear case of Arab aggression against a fellow Arab state, and it's difficult, you know, it comes down to quality versus quantity.

The Arab populations around the world understood what we were doing, agreed with what we were doing in 1991. This is, I would have to say, is a profoundly different political mix. Perhaps the numbers count is higher, but you really need to look at the substantive support from the Arab community and Arab Street in this operation, as compared to Desert Storm, and it's a profoundly different political mix, I think.

ZAHN: Which brings me to a final thought that I've love for you to react to, when Secretary Rumsfeld said and proclaimed this is not a war against a people, a country or religion. It is a war against a regime.

Who needs to hear that message?

TURNER: I think Arab populations worldwide need to do that. We need to be very careful in this operation that we do not somehow empower al Qaeda and the Arab terrorist movement around the world. It is essential that we make it very clear to the Arab populations around the world that this is a very precisely targeted military operation against a rogue regime, and in no way allow it to spill over into the larger dimension of politics in the region and globally and the war on terrorism. There is a reason Saddam Hussein specifically referred to Zionism and to the Palestinians last night in his speech. It is to his political advantage to somehow create a political link between our operations here and the Arab Israeli conflict, which is the core issue in the war against terrorism. And that can be lost in the shuffle here of this campaign.

ZAHN: Colonel Mike Turner, thank you very much for your insights this morning. We really appreciate your joining us.

So Leon, that is it on the Pentagon front for a moment. I know there were a lot of questions you and I both had that didn't get answered. I guess the chief among them is did the Iraqis see the U.S. coming. Barbara Starr suggesting about an hour ago that perhaps the Iraqis started using their anti-aircraft artillery in advance of the first bombs being dropped. That's something we're going to try to continue to sort through here.

LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: And that's still questions in my mind as to whether the Pentagon would even reveal any information they learn on that, at least not at this particular point.

ZAHN: Good point.

HARRIS: But, yes, we'll talk about that, no doubt in the coming hours. But right now, I've been sitting here next to our retired General Don Shepherd who's been taking notes and is listening as well to this Pentagon briefing. And I saw you nodding as Colonel Turner was giving his assessments. You seem to be in agreement with much of what he said. Do you have anything more to add?

GEN. DON SHEPHERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well I heard, I thought it was an excellent analysis. A couple other things I'd and points that hit me, the Secretary said listen to the broadcast. He's talking about Iraqi military. If you listen to the broadcast and comply you will have a place in the future Iraq, if you follow orders, you will share Saddam's fate. I think that's very important.

He also warned about leaks from the Pentagon and the administration ...

HARRIS: That did strike me. That's something ...

SHEPHERD: Yes, that's important, and it's always important in military operations. We try to be very careful about that at CNN. And the other two things that he really answered were we still don't know if Saddam is dead or alive. We don't know if it was him on the tape, and we don't know whether this oil is an early indication of something bigger or not.

HARRIS: Something I noticed immediately though right off the bat was Secretary Rumsfeld seemed to be a bit reticent when he was asked about prove as to whether or not there is any evidence that any of these Iraqi soldiers or officers had been taking the advice of these broadcasts and these leaflets drops, inviting them to come over and turn themselves in. Why would he not divulge that? Wouldn't that be a great propagandistic success for the U.S. to be able to announce hey there have been tons of defections so far? Wouldn't that demoralize the Iraqi forces?

SHEPHERD: They would, but there haven't been tons of defections so far. Secretary Rumsfeld is not going to say something that's not true.

Remember also he came back and answered that question again, and he basically said we have good evidence that there are things, so obviously, they are talking to people. They are listening to broadcasts, they see early indications, but he's not going to say something that basically is not true.

HARRIS: OK. We'll talk some more about this throughout the day. Much more analysis coming up here on the network. Make sure you stay with us for that. That's all for now with me here in the studio with the Major General Don Sheppard. Let's go now to Judy Woodruff standing by in Washington -- Judy.

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Leon, we heard Secretary Rumsfeld say at the outset that this attack will of a force and a scope and a scale beyond anything that we've seen before. Words close to that. So having said that, what happened last night when those missiles came into Baghdad, hit a residential compound, as we're going to be learning in just a moment. We want to go right now to Baghdad to CNN's Nic Robertson.

If we heard the Secretary and General Myers not really willing to say for sure what they think the damage is there, what do you know at your end? What are you seeing? What are you hearing? It's obviously well into the evening there now.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Judy, certainly Secretary Rumsfeld implying that the coalition looking for cracks in the leadership, cracks appearing in the regime here at this time. What we are seeing here on Iraqi television just a few minutes ago, a news statement flashed during regular programming here, a statement was read out from the President of Iraq. It was about a meeting that he held today. He met with Taha Yasin Ramadan, the vice president. He met with the minister of Military Industrialization, the foreign minister, the minister of Finance, the minister of Information.

These statement said they were studying the war. They were studying the politic -- studying it and giving it a political and military assessment. They were preparing how they would respond, and that they know that they will have victory. An indication here that while the President of Iraq is under direct attack himself, or has been under direct attack earlier in the day, that he is still meeting with his ministers, the message that the Iraqi people that they are deciding their next move at this time, but presenting a picture of solidarity, the fact that all the minister, the key ministers are standing with him at this time, as they assess what they should do.

Throughout the day on Iraqi television we've seen President Saddam Hussein appearing many times, and perhaps very telling film played out on the President's eldest son's station this afternoon, a film about Yugoslavia, a film about Tito, the Yugoslav leader during the second World War, and it's small band of fully armed and fully equipped partisans who try to hold off German forces who invaded Yugoslavia during the second World War. Perhaps the message there to the Iraqi people that even if they are presented with what may seem like overwhelming forces under strong leadership, the people can survive -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: Nic, just to clarify, you mentioned a new statement on the radio.

Who was making the statement?

ROBERTSON: Judy, a statement on Iraqi television, a statement read by a news broadcaster sitting in a news studio. He was reading a statement that perhaps we would have normally found presented in more detail by Iraq's news agency. The statement was that President Saddam Hussein had shared a meeting with his Vice President Taha Yasin Ramadan, with his minister of Military Industrialization, with is Finance minister, with his Foreign minister, with his Information minister. This statement saying that they were studying the war, giving it a political and military assessment as they prepare how to respond. This statement also said that they would have victory -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: And quickly, beyond that Nic, all quiet right now in Baghdad?

ROBERTSON: All quiet right now Judy, and just briefly from visits journalists have made to hospitals here in Baghdad, a number of civilians according to hospital sources, 14 people injured, one person killed, according to hospital sources that was a woman who was killed. And what journalists have been able to see in the hospital at least three woman injured, and at least one child injured from what journalists have been able to see this day -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: All right. CNN's Nic Robertson, one of the very few journalists still in Baghdad. With me here in the studio in Washington is CNN national security correspondent David Ensor who has done some reporting about, David, about what is known right now about this strike and last night, and what exactly was hit.

DAVID ENSOR, NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well Judy it was a residential compound, U.S. Intelligence Officials say, and they believe, they had good intelligence, as you heard Rumsfeld, Mr. Rumsfeld say that there were some senior Iraqi officials in the compound. Now they had some reason to believe that Saddam Hussein might be among them, but they are not sure about that.

They are saying, they are expressing optimism today that these cruise missiles strikes and other attacks on that site caused the death of some senior Iraqi officials, possible republican guard leaders, Ba'ath party leaders. We are told that some of these officials has turned in for the night when the U.S. strike took place. One official said to me a short time ago, if Saddam did not die last night, it's got to leave him wondering about the loyalty of some of those around him that we were able to find and hit the target that we did.

WOODRUFF: What does that mean exactly? Why would that call into question the loyalty of the people around him?

ENSOR: I think the implication of that remark is that given the secrecy about the compound, they believe Saddam will now have to wonder whether they might have intelligence sources within his inner circle.

WOODRUFF: And whether that's been betrayed?

ENSOR: That's right.

WOODRUFF: Which is something that until now he had apparently was confident that had not happened.

ENSOR: That's right. Now the other thing that we've been hearing about is this question of whether the tape was really Saddam or not. And on balance the serving intelligence officials I've spoken to seem to lean towards the idea that probably that was Saddam on the tape, although they're analyzing it very, very closely. There are a number of techniques that are used the U.S. intelligence agencies that are, where they work in this area. They will be triangulating the face, comparing the exact distance between the eyes and the nose and so on in various ways. Also voice recognition obviously is being done on the tape.

Now as I say, the serving officials say they don't for sure. They don't know whether he was killed or not. On balance they suspect that probably is Saddam. I did speak however, to one former CIA photo analysis official who offered his theory. He doesn't think that's Saddam on that tape.

WOODRUFF: But at this point the preponderance of the view is that it was, likely was ...

ENSOR: Probably.

WOODRUFF: Probably was.

ENSOR: There is, as Mr. Rumsfeld said, debate about that one.

WOODRUFF: All right, David Ensor, our National Security Correspondent. Let's go quickly to the White House to our Senior White House Correspondent, John King. John, does all that square with what you're hearing there about whether it was Saddam Hussein.

JOHN KING, SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: It sure does square. This debate was included in the President's early morning consultations here at the White House. And we just heard from Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. He was among the guests over here at the White House earlier this morning. The Secretary of Defense and Chairman General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, before that briefing they were over here at the White House, and we were told that they gave the President an update, not only on what they knew about what happened last night, but what they are prepared to do in the hours and days ahead.

One senior official telling CNN, quote, things will ramp up pretty quickly now. The President, we are told, is making calls to world leaders to update them on the coalition, and the military action taking shape. We are told among those calls will be of course to the British Prime Minister Tony Blair, his chief ally.

We also are told that we are all but certain to hear from the President this afternoon. Senior administration sources telling CNN that the White House is likely to open up a brief session, a brief portion of a meeting the President will have with his cabinet in the 2:00 hour this afternoon. So we should hear directly from the President. Ari Fleischer, the White House press secretary, also to brief this afternoon.

I believe here it is, here this photo for you. We can go behind the scenes into the Oval Office here, if we can take a look at that photo. There's the CIA Director, George Tenet looking at the vice president, the president looking on, Chief of Staff, Andy Card, standing behind the president. There you have a snapshot this morning of the sense, if you look closely at the faces, how engaged these men are in this briefing from Director Tenet in the Oval Office, our first glimpse of the President and his team on the morning after.

This, we are told, Director Tenet updating the President and his top aides on what is known from those strikes last night. Of course, Mr. Tenet's job, not only to tell the President what they know about the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein and his leadership team, but also Judy, to tell the President about what the CIA and other agencies are seeing about the threat of domestic terrorism here in the United States as some sort of retaliation for the war now underway in Iraq?

WOODRUFF: John, are you getting any sense of how tough a decision this was for the President last night? Was the evidence so overwhelming that it was an easy call, that everyone agreed, or is there a sense that there was a real debate, agonizing debate over whether to go ahead with this last night.

KING: No sense at all of an agonizing debate. We are told Director Tenet presented the evidence to Mr. Bush, told him that this evidence is not always reliable, that there was no certainty that Saddam Hussein was in that complex, but that they did have very good evidence that we are told Director Tenet said he was quite certain that there were senior Iraqi officials and key leadership targets in that complex, and perhaps Saddam Hussein, as well. He laid it out for the president and we are told the president said go, that these targets were already on a list of potential targets, this residential compound. David Ensor was talking about already on a list of potential targets, because of U.S. intelligence and that after Director Tenet made his presentation, we are told the president said go. We also are told Judy, he has signed a broad order here, an execution order for a broad military campaign, authorizing not only the strikes that have already happened, but field commanders now have authority to carry out the rest of the military confrontation. That doesn't mean the president won't be consulted as things progress. He certainly will be. But the broad order has already been signed by the president of the United States.

WOODRUFF: And that is what we are all waiting to see. John King at the White House. Now to New York to Paula.

ZAHN: Judy, as those of you who have been watching us throughout the morning probably know shortly after those first strikes in Baghdad and the second wave of attacks, which centered on an area 250 miles west of Baghdad, Iraq responded to the assault by launching missiles at Kuwait.

Bill Hemmer has been duty all day, at times dawning his gas mask, at times putting on his vest. He's back with us now. Bill, I'd love for you to clear up some of the confusing reporting that has been done from a variety of sources this morning. Initially we were told these were not Scuds that were fired into Kuwait, that they were Al Samoud missiles. That's gone back and forth all day. Has there been any official clarification of exactly what came into Kuwaiti territory?

BILL HEMMER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, the word we're getting from our journalists embedded with the U.S. military is that they were not incoming Scuds, they were another type of missile. The reason why that's important Paula, the scud missile we're told has a much greater range, much greater reach than a lot of other missiles that are in the Iraqi pipeline. We talked a lot about the Al Samoud 2 missiles, the missiles that have been ordered by the U.N. to be destroyed and have been we are told, that have been half the arsenal over the past three weeks time.

Those missiles do not have the range of a scud missile that was so popular during the first Persian Gulf War. You might remember the Scuds went from Western Iraq all the way to Israel and hitting targets various sites around Tel Aviv. That's our understanding right now.

But as we listen to Don Rumsfeld and Richard Myers at the Pentagon, the general's saying that a lot of this takes time to get a true battlefield assessment, but at this point, they don't believe those are incoming Scuds -- Paula.

ZAHN: And your understanding of how effective the patriot missile batteries are, or I think it was Gary Tuckman in the field that suggests that there were four patriot missiles fired, and then once again, one actually shot out of the sky, one of the Iraqi missiles ...

HEMMER: Yes, that's our understanding. That's right. Of these missiles coming in from the north heading south to the skies of Kuwait, the word was that at least one Patriot Missile battery did score a direct hit on this incoming missile, rendering it useless, knocking it to the ground. It landed out in the Kuwaiti desert, but there's a lot of desert out there.

One thing I want to make clear though, Paula, from all the indications we have right now, not one of these missiles has been directed toward the civilian population here in Kuwait City. They all appear at this point to be headed toward the U.S. and British troops, now stationed in mass in the northern part of the Kuwaiti desert.

Let's go more north than Kuwait and more north than Iraq, let's get to Turkey in the capital city of Ankara for Fredricka Whitfield is now reporting, as of an hour ago, there has been some conciliatory move made by the Turkish Parliament that will allow U.S. airspace, U.S. over flights, anyway, through Turkey going into Northern Iraq.

Fredricka, what do you have?

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, that's exactly right. After three hours of deliberation, the Turkish Parliament voted in favor of those U.S. military over flights to begin their air assaults over northern Iraq. The vote, 332 yes's to 202 no's, and this comes after parliament really was kind of put into a corner, in that it at first thought it wanted to reintroduce a proposal that was introduced and rejected earlier in the month.

That would have included a $30 billion package and that included $6 billion of direct U.S. aid in exchange for full military access of the Turkish territories, air, land and sea, but then they had to go back and readdress that proposal and start all over again, and water it down because the U.S. said we would no longer offer you that $30 billion package. Go back and start again. So they did, and offered an over flight only. We still don't know if there is any financial incentive that came with that, only that parliament has indeed agreed to it.

Now, there was a second item on that proposal, and it calls for Turkish troops to be able to cross the border and go into Northern Iraq and apparently as part of that proposal, Parliament has voted in favor of that. We know that the over flights involving the U.S. military can begin immediately. That would include fighter jets coming from Europe or perhaps even the two aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean just off the Turkish coast -- the USS Truman and the USS Roosevelt. But unclear is how quickly the Turkish troops might be able to make their move over into the Northern Iraqi territory. That we're still not clear about from Turkish officials -- Bill.

HEMMER: Fredricka, thanks -- Fredricka Whitfield there in Ankara, the Turkish capital. Want to get back here in Kuwait right now. By my count, we have heard at least six different air raid sirens at six different times throughout the afternoon and early evening, coming and going right now for the past hour and 20 minutes, we have been given the all clear. But how are Kuwaitis reacting to all this, knowing right now that they sit on the front lines of yet another Persian Gulf War.

Abdul-Rida Assiri, a professor at Kuwait University of Political Science, he is now our guest here in Kuwait City to talk more about this. First air raid siren goes up today, you are thinking and feeling what in your head?

PROFESSOR ABDUL-RIDA ASSIRI, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, KUWAIT UNIVERSITY: Well, I think this time is unlike 1990. People feel more relaxed. The management of the crisis is different in total than 1990.

HEMMER: How so?

ASSIRI: You know at that time, we were caught by surprise off- guard. This time, internally the government had set the stage for such eventuality. They prepared, you know, domestic civil defense lessons, you know, provided information, provided a media -- a well prepared media, food gathering -- everything is there. Moreover, I think, you know, the morale of the people is boosted by the fact that, you know, all Kuwaitis are -- this time the defense and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) mechanism of Kuwait is boosted by the presence of GCC -- Gulf Cooperation Council troops, and more importantly by presence of American, British troops here. I think, you know, the Kuwaitis are, you know, well prepared this time and they hope -- this is, of course, the second time but perhaps will be the last time.

HEMMER: Let's broaden our discussion here. Throughout the Arab world, this has been a fractured opinion regarding Saddam Hussein and this military action. It's essentially divided in three -- countries like Kuwait that want to see Saddam Hussein taken out and a regime change, other countries in the middle saying, "No, you can't do that -- let the inspections continue," then on the further side of the argument, you have those who say, "No military action at all." Why is it now, 12 years later, that there is not a united front from the Arab world -- a united voice regarding Iraq ...

ASSIRI: You know, you have 22-plus Arab nation states. And 22- plus, you've got different ideas, different minds, different positions. You know, the governments on one side has one position, and the masses have another. But I'm afraid people have been indoctrinated. They think Saddam Hussein is the salvage (ph), is the messiah, he's going to save the Arab world from miseries. But they do not understand that he, you know, led the Arab world to disasters and so many wars -- with internal war and external war. I think those masses, those voices coming from so many places, they should ask themselves -- are they Iraqis or not they should address that question that opposition to the Iraqi people.

HEMMER: Do you -- do you believe that time is at hand that indeed you will see a regime change in Iraq?

ASSIRI: Well, I think, you know, the Iraqi people are ready for such changes, the neighboring states is ready, and the international system is ready. If Saddam Hussein continues on his throne to run that country with tyranny, with torture, I think, you know, the area will go into trouble more and more and perhaps in the future will have, you know, unknown future simply because he will (UNINTELLIGIBLE) disarm, threaten us, threat the neighbor and threat the -- threaten the regional security.

HEMMER: Thank you. ASSIRI: So, I think his removal (UNINTELLIGIBLE) is a good thing for all of us.

HEMMER: Professor, thanks for your time -- Abdul Rida Assiri, from Kuwait University giving us the local flavor ...

ASSIRI: Thank you.

HEMMER: ... here and perspective ...

ASSIRI: Thank you very much.

HEMMER: ... from the Kuwaiti position. It's just about seven o'clock here local time in Kuwait. Want to let you know, Paula, that the amount of foot traffic and vehicle traffic we've noticed down remarkably today. The six-lane highway that we have seen almost 24 hours-a-day with constant traffic -- it's not empty, but it's the least amount of vehicles we have seen in about two months time here. Clearly Kuwaitis are staying home by and large right now with the sirens that we have heard throughout the day here.

That's going to do it for my coverage in Kuwait City, Paula. Wolf Blitzer will take in the chair in about five minutes time. I'll see you again tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING.

ZAHN: Straight up at 7:00 A.M. Thanks, Bill. Go get some rest.

HEMMER: Yes.

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Interview With Abdul-Rida Assiri>


Aired March 20, 2003 - 11:27   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Joining us right now is Mike Turner, Colonel Mike Turner who once played a very important role in briefing General Norman Schwarzkopf. He's been monitoring this news conference as well.
What do you think is the most important thing you learned?

COL. MIKE TURNER (RET.), U.S. AIR FORCE: Well, I think what's critical is what Secretary Rumsfeld alluded to as essentially the difference between this war and any previous war. Now he was speaking entirely in military dimension and that's certainly true. We were a conventional army fighting a conventional army deployed in the field. But I'd expand is beyond that to the larger strategic objectives of the two sides. Our objectives here are principally military and as he is the head of the Iraqi military it's a purely militarization objective to remove him from power.

On the other hand, I have to believe faced with the awesome might of what he's facing that Saddam Hussein's object is almost entirely political. For that reason, he achieves to achieve a political victory and inflict a foreign policy and political defeat on the United States which takes on a different dimension. It moves to the top of his list, destroying oil fields, inflicting casualties on his civilian population, certainly striking Israel if he has the compasity to do that and destroying his own infrastructure. If he is going to somehow think that he is going to survive an exile, then a political victory against the United States would position him to have some hope of survival.

ZAHN: Let's talk about what the secretary of defense didn't say about what happened last night. He said the damage estimate is pending on that small complex where it is building that the Iraqi military leadership and perhaps political leadership were meeting. What did you read between the lines about Saddam Hussein's fate? He said there is a debate about whether the tape we saw last night was the real thing or not.

TURNER: Well, I think Secretary Rumsfeld and the chairman are very careful about expectations about predictions and about departing from known facts. As in a fast-breaking crisis, and I remember quite clearly during Desert Storm, we would hear the raw data come into the desks and present that to the senior leadership and we would watch how it was reported on television and very often it was accurate, though limited. Sometimes it was off the mark. And because they are in the process of trying to execute a very complex military operation, it is simply disadvantageous to the senior military to try to project what might or might not have happened. And he's sticking to the facts. And I that's a very safe and prudent thing to do when troops are about to go into harms way.

ZAHN: The team though was asked a very pointed question about saying all along that Saddam Hussein wasn't the target of the war and General Myers said, look, the regime command and control is a legitimate target in a war. If Saddam Hussein isn't captured or killed, do you think the public perception would be that this war had been a failure?

TURNER: I don't know that that's the case. We really need to be careful about predictions in this kind of a fluid and dynamic environment. However, the President has quite clearly stated that Saddam Hussein needs to go. And he has defined go, leave, in any number of different ways. So however we choose to define him leaving and being removed from power would be essentially a total success for the United States.

And legitimately, I don't know how Saddam Hussein can at this point, honestly believe that he would not have to leave one way or another at some time in the very near future. He is very unpredictable. It's very difficult to try and attribute any sort of rational logic process to Saddam Hussein, which of course is why he's so dangerous. But I think he needs to leave, as the President has clearly stated, and that needs to be the outcome for us to be able to declare a victory.

ZAHN: Colonel Turner having worked along General Schwarzkopf during Desert Storm, I'd love for you to put this into perspective. It's something that Senator, excuse me, that Secretary Rumsfeld mentioned this morning that there are 35 nations untied in this effort in addition to some nations that are working on this privately, and he said the coalition is much bigger than the coalition formed in 1991.

TURNER: Yes, that gave me pause. We had a viable solid Arab coalition. We had Arab units on the ground. It was a clear case of Arab aggression against a fellow Arab state, and it's difficult, you know, it comes down to quality versus quantity.

The Arab populations around the world understood what we were doing, agreed with what we were doing in 1991. This is, I would have to say, is a profoundly different political mix. Perhaps the numbers count is higher, but you really need to look at the substantive support from the Arab community and Arab Street in this operation, as compared to Desert Storm, and it's a profoundly different political mix, I think.

ZAHN: Which brings me to a final thought that I've love for you to react to, when Secretary Rumsfeld said and proclaimed this is not a war against a people, a country or religion. It is a war against a regime.

Who needs to hear that message?

TURNER: I think Arab populations worldwide need to do that. We need to be very careful in this operation that we do not somehow empower al Qaeda and the Arab terrorist movement around the world. It is essential that we make it very clear to the Arab populations around the world that this is a very precisely targeted military operation against a rogue regime, and in no way allow it to spill over into the larger dimension of politics in the region and globally and the war on terrorism. There is a reason Saddam Hussein specifically referred to Zionism and to the Palestinians last night in his speech. It is to his political advantage to somehow create a political link between our operations here and the Arab Israeli conflict, which is the core issue in the war against terrorism. And that can be lost in the shuffle here of this campaign.

ZAHN: Colonel Mike Turner, thank you very much for your insights this morning. We really appreciate your joining us.

So Leon, that is it on the Pentagon front for a moment. I know there were a lot of questions you and I both had that didn't get answered. I guess the chief among them is did the Iraqis see the U.S. coming. Barbara Starr suggesting about an hour ago that perhaps the Iraqis started using their anti-aircraft artillery in advance of the first bombs being dropped. That's something we're going to try to continue to sort through here.

LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: And that's still questions in my mind as to whether the Pentagon would even reveal any information they learn on that, at least not at this particular point.

ZAHN: Good point.

HARRIS: But, yes, we'll talk about that, no doubt in the coming hours. But right now, I've been sitting here next to our retired General Don Shepherd who's been taking notes and is listening as well to this Pentagon briefing. And I saw you nodding as Colonel Turner was giving his assessments. You seem to be in agreement with much of what he said. Do you have anything more to add?

GEN. DON SHEPHERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well I heard, I thought it was an excellent analysis. A couple other things I'd and points that hit me, the Secretary said listen to the broadcast. He's talking about Iraqi military. If you listen to the broadcast and comply you will have a place in the future Iraq, if you follow orders, you will share Saddam's fate. I think that's very important.

He also warned about leaks from the Pentagon and the administration ...

HARRIS: That did strike me. That's something ...

SHEPHERD: Yes, that's important, and it's always important in military operations. We try to be very careful about that at CNN. And the other two things that he really answered were we still don't know if Saddam is dead or alive. We don't know if it was him on the tape, and we don't know whether this oil is an early indication of something bigger or not.

HARRIS: Something I noticed immediately though right off the bat was Secretary Rumsfeld seemed to be a bit reticent when he was asked about prove as to whether or not there is any evidence that any of these Iraqi soldiers or officers had been taking the advice of these broadcasts and these leaflets drops, inviting them to come over and turn themselves in. Why would he not divulge that? Wouldn't that be a great propagandistic success for the U.S. to be able to announce hey there have been tons of defections so far? Wouldn't that demoralize the Iraqi forces?

SHEPHERD: They would, but there haven't been tons of defections so far. Secretary Rumsfeld is not going to say something that's not true.

Remember also he came back and answered that question again, and he basically said we have good evidence that there are things, so obviously, they are talking to people. They are listening to broadcasts, they see early indications, but he's not going to say something that basically is not true.

HARRIS: OK. We'll talk some more about this throughout the day. Much more analysis coming up here on the network. Make sure you stay with us for that. That's all for now with me here in the studio with the Major General Don Sheppard. Let's go now to Judy Woodruff standing by in Washington -- Judy.

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: Leon, we heard Secretary Rumsfeld say at the outset that this attack will of a force and a scope and a scale beyond anything that we've seen before. Words close to that. So having said that, what happened last night when those missiles came into Baghdad, hit a residential compound, as we're going to be learning in just a moment. We want to go right now to Baghdad to CNN's Nic Robertson.

If we heard the Secretary and General Myers not really willing to say for sure what they think the damage is there, what do you know at your end? What are you seeing? What are you hearing? It's obviously well into the evening there now.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Judy, certainly Secretary Rumsfeld implying that the coalition looking for cracks in the leadership, cracks appearing in the regime here at this time. What we are seeing here on Iraqi television just a few minutes ago, a news statement flashed during regular programming here, a statement was read out from the President of Iraq. It was about a meeting that he held today. He met with Taha Yasin Ramadan, the vice president. He met with the minister of Military Industrialization, the foreign minister, the minister of Finance, the minister of Information.

These statement said they were studying the war. They were studying the politic -- studying it and giving it a political and military assessment. They were preparing how they would respond, and that they know that they will have victory. An indication here that while the President of Iraq is under direct attack himself, or has been under direct attack earlier in the day, that he is still meeting with his ministers, the message that the Iraqi people that they are deciding their next move at this time, but presenting a picture of solidarity, the fact that all the minister, the key ministers are standing with him at this time, as they assess what they should do.

Throughout the day on Iraqi television we've seen President Saddam Hussein appearing many times, and perhaps very telling film played out on the President's eldest son's station this afternoon, a film about Yugoslavia, a film about Tito, the Yugoslav leader during the second World War, and it's small band of fully armed and fully equipped partisans who try to hold off German forces who invaded Yugoslavia during the second World War. Perhaps the message there to the Iraqi people that even if they are presented with what may seem like overwhelming forces under strong leadership, the people can survive -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: Nic, just to clarify, you mentioned a new statement on the radio.

Who was making the statement?

ROBERTSON: Judy, a statement on Iraqi television, a statement read by a news broadcaster sitting in a news studio. He was reading a statement that perhaps we would have normally found presented in more detail by Iraq's news agency. The statement was that President Saddam Hussein had shared a meeting with his Vice President Taha Yasin Ramadan, with his minister of Military Industrialization, with is Finance minister, with his Foreign minister, with his Information minister. This statement saying that they were studying the war, giving it a political and military assessment as they prepare how to respond. This statement also said that they would have victory -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: And quickly, beyond that Nic, all quiet right now in Baghdad?

ROBERTSON: All quiet right now Judy, and just briefly from visits journalists have made to hospitals here in Baghdad, a number of civilians according to hospital sources, 14 people injured, one person killed, according to hospital sources that was a woman who was killed. And what journalists have been able to see in the hospital at least three woman injured, and at least one child injured from what journalists have been able to see this day -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: All right. CNN's Nic Robertson, one of the very few journalists still in Baghdad. With me here in the studio in Washington is CNN national security correspondent David Ensor who has done some reporting about, David, about what is known right now about this strike and last night, and what exactly was hit.

DAVID ENSOR, NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well Judy it was a residential compound, U.S. Intelligence Officials say, and they believe, they had good intelligence, as you heard Rumsfeld, Mr. Rumsfeld say that there were some senior Iraqi officials in the compound. Now they had some reason to believe that Saddam Hussein might be among them, but they are not sure about that.

They are saying, they are expressing optimism today that these cruise missiles strikes and other attacks on that site caused the death of some senior Iraqi officials, possible republican guard leaders, Ba'ath party leaders. We are told that some of these officials has turned in for the night when the U.S. strike took place. One official said to me a short time ago, if Saddam did not die last night, it's got to leave him wondering about the loyalty of some of those around him that we were able to find and hit the target that we did.

WOODRUFF: What does that mean exactly? Why would that call into question the loyalty of the people around him?

ENSOR: I think the implication of that remark is that given the secrecy about the compound, they believe Saddam will now have to wonder whether they might have intelligence sources within his inner circle.

WOODRUFF: And whether that's been betrayed?

ENSOR: That's right.

WOODRUFF: Which is something that until now he had apparently was confident that had not happened.

ENSOR: That's right. Now the other thing that we've been hearing about is this question of whether the tape was really Saddam or not. And on balance the serving intelligence officials I've spoken to seem to lean towards the idea that probably that was Saddam on the tape, although they're analyzing it very, very closely. There are a number of techniques that are used the U.S. intelligence agencies that are, where they work in this area. They will be triangulating the face, comparing the exact distance between the eyes and the nose and so on in various ways. Also voice recognition obviously is being done on the tape.

Now as I say, the serving officials say they don't for sure. They don't know whether he was killed or not. On balance they suspect that probably is Saddam. I did speak however, to one former CIA photo analysis official who offered his theory. He doesn't think that's Saddam on that tape.

WOODRUFF: But at this point the preponderance of the view is that it was, likely was ...

ENSOR: Probably.

WOODRUFF: Probably was.

ENSOR: There is, as Mr. Rumsfeld said, debate about that one.

WOODRUFF: All right, David Ensor, our National Security Correspondent. Let's go quickly to the White House to our Senior White House Correspondent, John King. John, does all that square with what you're hearing there about whether it was Saddam Hussein.

JOHN KING, SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: It sure does square. This debate was included in the President's early morning consultations here at the White House. And we just heard from Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. He was among the guests over here at the White House earlier this morning. The Secretary of Defense and Chairman General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, before that briefing they were over here at the White House, and we were told that they gave the President an update, not only on what they knew about what happened last night, but what they are prepared to do in the hours and days ahead.

One senior official telling CNN, quote, things will ramp up pretty quickly now. The President, we are told, is making calls to world leaders to update them on the coalition, and the military action taking shape. We are told among those calls will be of course to the British Prime Minister Tony Blair, his chief ally.

We also are told that we are all but certain to hear from the President this afternoon. Senior administration sources telling CNN that the White House is likely to open up a brief session, a brief portion of a meeting the President will have with his cabinet in the 2:00 hour this afternoon. So we should hear directly from the President. Ari Fleischer, the White House press secretary, also to brief this afternoon.

I believe here it is, here this photo for you. We can go behind the scenes into the Oval Office here, if we can take a look at that photo. There's the CIA Director, George Tenet looking at the vice president, the president looking on, Chief of Staff, Andy Card, standing behind the president. There you have a snapshot this morning of the sense, if you look closely at the faces, how engaged these men are in this briefing from Director Tenet in the Oval Office, our first glimpse of the President and his team on the morning after.

This, we are told, Director Tenet updating the President and his top aides on what is known from those strikes last night. Of course, Mr. Tenet's job, not only to tell the President what they know about the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein and his leadership team, but also Judy, to tell the President about what the CIA and other agencies are seeing about the threat of domestic terrorism here in the United States as some sort of retaliation for the war now underway in Iraq?

WOODRUFF: John, are you getting any sense of how tough a decision this was for the President last night? Was the evidence so overwhelming that it was an easy call, that everyone agreed, or is there a sense that there was a real debate, agonizing debate over whether to go ahead with this last night.

KING: No sense at all of an agonizing debate. We are told Director Tenet presented the evidence to Mr. Bush, told him that this evidence is not always reliable, that there was no certainty that Saddam Hussein was in that complex, but that they did have very good evidence that we are told Director Tenet said he was quite certain that there were senior Iraqi officials and key leadership targets in that complex, and perhaps Saddam Hussein, as well. He laid it out for the president and we are told the president said go, that these targets were already on a list of potential targets, this residential compound. David Ensor was talking about already on a list of potential targets, because of U.S. intelligence and that after Director Tenet made his presentation, we are told the president said go. We also are told Judy, he has signed a broad order here, an execution order for a broad military campaign, authorizing not only the strikes that have already happened, but field commanders now have authority to carry out the rest of the military confrontation. That doesn't mean the president won't be consulted as things progress. He certainly will be. But the broad order has already been signed by the president of the United States.

WOODRUFF: And that is what we are all waiting to see. John King at the White House. Now to New York to Paula.

ZAHN: Judy, as those of you who have been watching us throughout the morning probably know shortly after those first strikes in Baghdad and the second wave of attacks, which centered on an area 250 miles west of Baghdad, Iraq responded to the assault by launching missiles at Kuwait.

Bill Hemmer has been duty all day, at times dawning his gas mask, at times putting on his vest. He's back with us now. Bill, I'd love for you to clear up some of the confusing reporting that has been done from a variety of sources this morning. Initially we were told these were not Scuds that were fired into Kuwait, that they were Al Samoud missiles. That's gone back and forth all day. Has there been any official clarification of exactly what came into Kuwaiti territory?

BILL HEMMER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, the word we're getting from our journalists embedded with the U.S. military is that they were not incoming Scuds, they were another type of missile. The reason why that's important Paula, the scud missile we're told has a much greater range, much greater reach than a lot of other missiles that are in the Iraqi pipeline. We talked a lot about the Al Samoud 2 missiles, the missiles that have been ordered by the U.N. to be destroyed and have been we are told, that have been half the arsenal over the past three weeks time.

Those missiles do not have the range of a scud missile that was so popular during the first Persian Gulf War. You might remember the Scuds went from Western Iraq all the way to Israel and hitting targets various sites around Tel Aviv. That's our understanding right now.

But as we listen to Don Rumsfeld and Richard Myers at the Pentagon, the general's saying that a lot of this takes time to get a true battlefield assessment, but at this point, they don't believe those are incoming Scuds -- Paula.

ZAHN: And your understanding of how effective the patriot missile batteries are, or I think it was Gary Tuckman in the field that suggests that there were four patriot missiles fired, and then once again, one actually shot out of the sky, one of the Iraqi missiles ...

HEMMER: Yes, that's our understanding. That's right. Of these missiles coming in from the north heading south to the skies of Kuwait, the word was that at least one Patriot Missile battery did score a direct hit on this incoming missile, rendering it useless, knocking it to the ground. It landed out in the Kuwaiti desert, but there's a lot of desert out there.

One thing I want to make clear though, Paula, from all the indications we have right now, not one of these missiles has been directed toward the civilian population here in Kuwait City. They all appear at this point to be headed toward the U.S. and British troops, now stationed in mass in the northern part of the Kuwaiti desert.

Let's go more north than Kuwait and more north than Iraq, let's get to Turkey in the capital city of Ankara for Fredricka Whitfield is now reporting, as of an hour ago, there has been some conciliatory move made by the Turkish Parliament that will allow U.S. airspace, U.S. over flights, anyway, through Turkey going into Northern Iraq.

Fredricka, what do you have?

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, that's exactly right. After three hours of deliberation, the Turkish Parliament voted in favor of those U.S. military over flights to begin their air assaults over northern Iraq. The vote, 332 yes's to 202 no's, and this comes after parliament really was kind of put into a corner, in that it at first thought it wanted to reintroduce a proposal that was introduced and rejected earlier in the month.

That would have included a $30 billion package and that included $6 billion of direct U.S. aid in exchange for full military access of the Turkish territories, air, land and sea, but then they had to go back and readdress that proposal and start all over again, and water it down because the U.S. said we would no longer offer you that $30 billion package. Go back and start again. So they did, and offered an over flight only. We still don't know if there is any financial incentive that came with that, only that parliament has indeed agreed to it.

Now, there was a second item on that proposal, and it calls for Turkish troops to be able to cross the border and go into Northern Iraq and apparently as part of that proposal, Parliament has voted in favor of that. We know that the over flights involving the U.S. military can begin immediately. That would include fighter jets coming from Europe or perhaps even the two aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean just off the Turkish coast -- the USS Truman and the USS Roosevelt. But unclear is how quickly the Turkish troops might be able to make their move over into the Northern Iraqi territory. That we're still not clear about from Turkish officials -- Bill.

HEMMER: Fredricka, thanks -- Fredricka Whitfield there in Ankara, the Turkish capital. Want to get back here in Kuwait right now. By my count, we have heard at least six different air raid sirens at six different times throughout the afternoon and early evening, coming and going right now for the past hour and 20 minutes, we have been given the all clear. But how are Kuwaitis reacting to all this, knowing right now that they sit on the front lines of yet another Persian Gulf War.

Abdul-Rida Assiri, a professor at Kuwait University of Political Science, he is now our guest here in Kuwait City to talk more about this. First air raid siren goes up today, you are thinking and feeling what in your head?

PROFESSOR ABDUL-RIDA ASSIRI, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, KUWAIT UNIVERSITY: Well, I think this time is unlike 1990. People feel more relaxed. The management of the crisis is different in total than 1990.

HEMMER: How so?

ASSIRI: You know at that time, we were caught by surprise off- guard. This time, internally the government had set the stage for such eventuality. They prepared, you know, domestic civil defense lessons, you know, provided information, provided a media -- a well prepared media, food gathering -- everything is there. Moreover, I think, you know, the morale of the people is boosted by the fact that, you know, all Kuwaitis are -- this time the defense and (UNINTELLIGIBLE) mechanism of Kuwait is boosted by the presence of GCC -- Gulf Cooperation Council troops, and more importantly by presence of American, British troops here. I think, you know, the Kuwaitis are, you know, well prepared this time and they hope -- this is, of course, the second time but perhaps will be the last time.

HEMMER: Let's broaden our discussion here. Throughout the Arab world, this has been a fractured opinion regarding Saddam Hussein and this military action. It's essentially divided in three -- countries like Kuwait that want to see Saddam Hussein taken out and a regime change, other countries in the middle saying, "No, you can't do that -- let the inspections continue," then on the further side of the argument, you have those who say, "No military action at all." Why is it now, 12 years later, that there is not a united front from the Arab world -- a united voice regarding Iraq ...

ASSIRI: You know, you have 22-plus Arab nation states. And 22- plus, you've got different ideas, different minds, different positions. You know, the governments on one side has one position, and the masses have another. But I'm afraid people have been indoctrinated. They think Saddam Hussein is the salvage (ph), is the messiah, he's going to save the Arab world from miseries. But they do not understand that he, you know, led the Arab world to disasters and so many wars -- with internal war and external war. I think those masses, those voices coming from so many places, they should ask themselves -- are they Iraqis or not they should address that question that opposition to the Iraqi people.

HEMMER: Do you -- do you believe that time is at hand that indeed you will see a regime change in Iraq?

ASSIRI: Well, I think, you know, the Iraqi people are ready for such changes, the neighboring states is ready, and the international system is ready. If Saddam Hussein continues on his throne to run that country with tyranny, with torture, I think, you know, the area will go into trouble more and more and perhaps in the future will have, you know, unknown future simply because he will (UNINTELLIGIBLE) disarm, threaten us, threat the neighbor and threat the -- threaten the regional security.

HEMMER: Thank you. ASSIRI: So, I think his removal (UNINTELLIGIBLE) is a good thing for all of us.

HEMMER: Professor, thanks for your time -- Abdul Rida Assiri, from Kuwait University giving us the local flavor ...

ASSIRI: Thank you.

HEMMER: ... here and perspective ...

ASSIRI: Thank you very much.

HEMMER: ... from the Kuwaiti position. It's just about seven o'clock here local time in Kuwait. Want to let you know, Paula, that the amount of foot traffic and vehicle traffic we've noticed down remarkably today. The six-lane highway that we have seen almost 24 hours-a-day with constant traffic -- it's not empty, but it's the least amount of vehicles we have seen in about two months time here. Clearly Kuwaitis are staying home by and large right now with the sirens that we have heard throughout the day here.

That's going to do it for my coverage in Kuwait City, Paula. Wolf Blitzer will take in the chair in about five minutes time. I'll see you again tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING.

ZAHN: Straight up at 7:00 A.M. Thanks, Bill. Go get some rest.

HEMMER: Yes.

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Interview With Abdul-Rida Assiri>