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CNN Live Today
Assessing War Plans with a Former Planner
Aired April 01, 2003 - 10:21 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: We heard a little more today from Central Command, but not much regarding this incident that's a little more than 24-hours old, near this checkpoint in Najaf, where seven women and children were gunned down. The military's defending the movement.
Let's get to Qatar right now. We'll talk to Tom Mintier for more on this. I understand there are some developments.
Tom, what's happening now?
TOM MINTIER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, this all developed from a suicide bomber on Saturday in the area of the 3rd Infantry Division, someone who came up in a taxi, came out and then detonated a bomb inside the taxi. Four U.S. servicemen were killed in this incident. In the last 24-hours, another checkpoint incident, this one a vehicle approached the checkpoint, did not stop, supposedly in a different versions of this, warning shots from fired. The tires were shot and the engine was shot, and then finally, where the people were riding was also hit.
At the end of the day, there were seven people dead. They opened it up, women and children. Now CENTCOM officials in the middle of the night said this was a very regrettable incident, but indicative of the problems that soldiers are having on these checkpoints. Because apparently, and they claim, people are military, pushing these people forward, forcing them to drive into these checkpoint areas, and in one case a vehicle behind the first one, people getting out and shooting at the checkpoint.
Now today at the briefing this afternoon, there were two questions asked. One was about the report from the minister of information in Iraq about two buses being hit. A coalition briefer, Brigadier General Vincent Brooks, had no information on that. Then, of course, the checkpoint incident came up, asking if the rules of engagement had been changed. He said, no, they haven't been changed, but our operational procedures may be varied a little bit.
Asked about the possibility that people were being pushed forward in these vehicles, civilians being pushed forward by paramilitary elements, he said it's very difficult to know what's going on on the other side of the battlefield when these type of tactics are being used.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRIG. GEN. VINCENT BROOKS, CENTCOM: I certainly can't presuppose what decisions are being made or what decisions were made by the people in that vehicle. What we do know is that we've been broadcasting now for a good period of time, since about the 17th of February, 24 hours a day on five different frequencies. And consistent throughout that time have been messages that say, avoid coalition troops, avoid the places where combat is going to occur.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MINTIER: So they are saying that there is also a possibility that new leaflets may be printed and dropped over the area of Iraq, indicating how people should indeed avoid coalition troops, avoid checkpoints. But most importantly, they say avoid being pushed into a situation by the Iraqi paramilitary units that could cost them their lives -- Bill.
HEMMER: And quickly, Tom, he said it would not change the procedure in terms of military movement. But he said it might affect their psychology. Did they say much more after that at CENTCOM?
MINTIER: Not really much more. I think the change in operational procedures is how you handle civilian vehicles. We saw in the early days of this conflict several checkpoints were set up. People simply drove up, rolled down the window and were questioned by the coalition troops. Now we're seeing much more rigid procedures where these coalition troops have checkpoints set up forcing people to get out of the car, lie down on the road, while the vehicle is visually inspected from a distance.
So difference in operational procedures, but as General Brooks said, no real change in the rules of engagement. But they say that people are being forced to move forward.
They also pointed out another danger they fear, that a remote control device could be detonated with civilians in it pulling up to a checkpoint and then detonated from afar.
HEMMER: Dangers abound. Tom, thanks. Tom Mintier in Qatar. Now Paula again in New York.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Bill.
We're going to look at war plans from the eyes of someone who has been there, a career military man. Mike Turner is a retired U.S. Air Force colonel who has served as the personal briefing assistant to General Norman Schwarzkopf during the first Gulf War. He is also a veteran fighter pilot with more than 3,500 hours of flight time.
Welcome back, Colonel Turner. Good to see you.
COL. MIKE TURNER, USAF (RET.): Thanks, Paula. Good to be here.
ZAHN: I know you strongly believe that the mission in Iraqi Freedom is much more dangerous than the mission that we saw during Desert Storm. Why?
TURNER: Well, I spent about seven years in joint jobs, joint staff jobs, working with the Army and with the Marines. I think it's pretty consistently held that a pitched urban battle is perhaps the single most dangerous and complex mission we can ask infantry forces to become engaged in. I went back and checked some of the references that I had from the war last night. When we started Desert storm, we had three armored divisions, two mechanized infantry divisions, two Marine divisions, two armored cavalry regiments, a cavalry division, the 101st Airborne, the 82nd Airborne, and an enormous supply area and much shorter supply lines.
So the question I have now is, where is the value in trying to do this extraordinarily difficult mission with a force which is substantially smaller than the one we had? I don't see a military up side to this.
Go ahead.
ZAHN: So you believe troops have been moved too far, too fast?
TURNER: I don't know that they've been moved too far, too fast. I'm having trouble resolving what appears to me to be a disconnect between the complexity and danger of the mission and the size of the force that the military has been asked to use to do this mission. I don't know the workings, I don't have any inside sources, so it's difficult for me to understand what's going on. The command says we're on track. And clearly, from the situation on the ground, it appears as though now we are on track, that we've adjusted to the situation in the battlefield that we -- was a surprise to us for a while there and I think we have adequately adjusted.
But as the president and secretary and the chairman say the toughest fighting is ahead of us. And so I have to take pause and say, if the toughest fighting is ahead of us yet and I look at structure of the force we're dealing with compared to what we dealt with in Desert Storm, and that was against a conventional army away from civilian areas, and deployed in the field and very vulnerable, I have to ask myself why we're working with such a lean force. It's just a question that's plagued me since the beginning of the operation.
ZAHN: So, colonel, What would you do to bolster coalition forces at this stage of the campaign? Is it realistic we can do much?
TURNER: I think we're doing it. I think we're accelerating the movement of the 4th ID forward. We've redirected a Marine unit out of the Horn of Africa. And so what we've done is gone into the plan, and obviously, this was part of the plan. This rolling start, these rolling reserves are being accelerated and moved up. We've got -- I believe I saw this morning 70,000, 80,000 more troops that are beginning now to enter the battle area, and I think that's great. We'll just have to wait and see.
And again, this could be a stunning military victory. We're beginning to have some indications now that, in fact, Saddam may actually be dead, and that's highly -- that's conjecture on my part, but there are some solid indications of that, that this whole command structure could collapse tomorrow, and we could walk into Baghdad unopposed.
On the other hand, it could become a very difficult and potentially very tragic battle, and the leanness of our forces gives me some concern.
ZAHN: Let's talk about what you think some of the challenges might be if this war moves on into Baghdad. Martin Savidge shared some pictures with us of some of the house-to-house searches that had been done in villages south of Baghdad, and he talked about the tremendous fear that coalition forces have that you're going to have Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilians clothes that might hurt these troops. How do you protect against that?
TURNER: Well, candidly, I think the best protection we have against that really horrific scenario which was, frankly, fairly predictable from quite a long ways back, is the collapse of the regime and the psychological war that's being waged, clearly behind the scenes, and the possibility that we can end this relatively bloodlessly with, if you will, a regime change fairly bloodlessly in Baghdad. That would obviate the need to do these kinds of brutal house-to-house searches and street-to-street fighting that we can possibly see in Baghdad, and probably obviate the need for the Iraqis to use weapons of mass destruction if that is, in fact, their plan.
But that's an awful lot to gamble on that sort of a political victory, particularly given the fact we have seen more resistance than we anticipated, and that we've not seen the wild liberation, civilian population, that we expected to see in this operation.
So it's a dicey operation at this point. Everything appears to be on track based on the adjustments we've made, and I think that's great. And I think we got an opportunity for a great victory here. But I think the best way, frankly, to avoid that kind of battle is to preempt it by removing the regime by other means before we have to do it.
ZAHN: I guess a lot of folks are hoping that will happen. Finally, this morning, you say that a major part of this campaign now is the air campaign. This is CENTCOM briefers telling us that they believe they've reduced the fighting ability of the Republican Guard by some 50 percent. I'm just curious how you even begin to analyze that, and what evidence you've seen of that, if any.
TURNER: Well, a lot of it -- we had the same criteria for Desert Storm, to reduce the combat effectiveness by 50 percent before we started the ground campaign. A lot of it comes through the debriefs of the various air crews and what they saw and what they hit on the battlefield.
Remember, as these forces deploy into the battlefield, and the strike flights go across these forces, they can begin to assess fairly accurately the effect that they're having on those battlefield forces.
When you see a tank burning, it's pretty obviously a tank burning and when you begin to see a lot of those happening and disarray on the battlefield, it becomes fairly easy to analyze that and say, we think we've hit them pretty hard, and we're going to estimate that their combat effectiveness is down to 50 percent. It's a judgment call, but it's an experienced judgment call. And I think that's probably the weakest point that the guard has right now, is what the airpower is doing to them.
ZAHN: Colonel turner, we always appreciate your insight. It's like having a very thorough military briefing right here in the air. Thanks again for dropping by this morning.
Thank you, Paula.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 1, 2003 - 10:21 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: We heard a little more today from Central Command, but not much regarding this incident that's a little more than 24-hours old, near this checkpoint in Najaf, where seven women and children were gunned down. The military's defending the movement.
Let's get to Qatar right now. We'll talk to Tom Mintier for more on this. I understand there are some developments.
Tom, what's happening now?
TOM MINTIER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, this all developed from a suicide bomber on Saturday in the area of the 3rd Infantry Division, someone who came up in a taxi, came out and then detonated a bomb inside the taxi. Four U.S. servicemen were killed in this incident. In the last 24-hours, another checkpoint incident, this one a vehicle approached the checkpoint, did not stop, supposedly in a different versions of this, warning shots from fired. The tires were shot and the engine was shot, and then finally, where the people were riding was also hit.
At the end of the day, there were seven people dead. They opened it up, women and children. Now CENTCOM officials in the middle of the night said this was a very regrettable incident, but indicative of the problems that soldiers are having on these checkpoints. Because apparently, and they claim, people are military, pushing these people forward, forcing them to drive into these checkpoint areas, and in one case a vehicle behind the first one, people getting out and shooting at the checkpoint.
Now today at the briefing this afternoon, there were two questions asked. One was about the report from the minister of information in Iraq about two buses being hit. A coalition briefer, Brigadier General Vincent Brooks, had no information on that. Then, of course, the checkpoint incident came up, asking if the rules of engagement had been changed. He said, no, they haven't been changed, but our operational procedures may be varied a little bit.
Asked about the possibility that people were being pushed forward in these vehicles, civilians being pushed forward by paramilitary elements, he said it's very difficult to know what's going on on the other side of the battlefield when these type of tactics are being used.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRIG. GEN. VINCENT BROOKS, CENTCOM: I certainly can't presuppose what decisions are being made or what decisions were made by the people in that vehicle. What we do know is that we've been broadcasting now for a good period of time, since about the 17th of February, 24 hours a day on five different frequencies. And consistent throughout that time have been messages that say, avoid coalition troops, avoid the places where combat is going to occur.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MINTIER: So they are saying that there is also a possibility that new leaflets may be printed and dropped over the area of Iraq, indicating how people should indeed avoid coalition troops, avoid checkpoints. But most importantly, they say avoid being pushed into a situation by the Iraqi paramilitary units that could cost them their lives -- Bill.
HEMMER: And quickly, Tom, he said it would not change the procedure in terms of military movement. But he said it might affect their psychology. Did they say much more after that at CENTCOM?
MINTIER: Not really much more. I think the change in operational procedures is how you handle civilian vehicles. We saw in the early days of this conflict several checkpoints were set up. People simply drove up, rolled down the window and were questioned by the coalition troops. Now we're seeing much more rigid procedures where these coalition troops have checkpoints set up forcing people to get out of the car, lie down on the road, while the vehicle is visually inspected from a distance.
So difference in operational procedures, but as General Brooks said, no real change in the rules of engagement. But they say that people are being forced to move forward.
They also pointed out another danger they fear, that a remote control device could be detonated with civilians in it pulling up to a checkpoint and then detonated from afar.
HEMMER: Dangers abound. Tom, thanks. Tom Mintier in Qatar. Now Paula again in New York.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Bill.
We're going to look at war plans from the eyes of someone who has been there, a career military man. Mike Turner is a retired U.S. Air Force colonel who has served as the personal briefing assistant to General Norman Schwarzkopf during the first Gulf War. He is also a veteran fighter pilot with more than 3,500 hours of flight time.
Welcome back, Colonel Turner. Good to see you.
COL. MIKE TURNER, USAF (RET.): Thanks, Paula. Good to be here.
ZAHN: I know you strongly believe that the mission in Iraqi Freedom is much more dangerous than the mission that we saw during Desert Storm. Why?
TURNER: Well, I spent about seven years in joint jobs, joint staff jobs, working with the Army and with the Marines. I think it's pretty consistently held that a pitched urban battle is perhaps the single most dangerous and complex mission we can ask infantry forces to become engaged in. I went back and checked some of the references that I had from the war last night. When we started Desert storm, we had three armored divisions, two mechanized infantry divisions, two Marine divisions, two armored cavalry regiments, a cavalry division, the 101st Airborne, the 82nd Airborne, and an enormous supply area and much shorter supply lines.
So the question I have now is, where is the value in trying to do this extraordinarily difficult mission with a force which is substantially smaller than the one we had? I don't see a military up side to this.
Go ahead.
ZAHN: So you believe troops have been moved too far, too fast?
TURNER: I don't know that they've been moved too far, too fast. I'm having trouble resolving what appears to me to be a disconnect between the complexity and danger of the mission and the size of the force that the military has been asked to use to do this mission. I don't know the workings, I don't have any inside sources, so it's difficult for me to understand what's going on. The command says we're on track. And clearly, from the situation on the ground, it appears as though now we are on track, that we've adjusted to the situation in the battlefield that we -- was a surprise to us for a while there and I think we have adequately adjusted.
But as the president and secretary and the chairman say the toughest fighting is ahead of us. And so I have to take pause and say, if the toughest fighting is ahead of us yet and I look at structure of the force we're dealing with compared to what we dealt with in Desert Storm, and that was against a conventional army away from civilian areas, and deployed in the field and very vulnerable, I have to ask myself why we're working with such a lean force. It's just a question that's plagued me since the beginning of the operation.
ZAHN: So, colonel, What would you do to bolster coalition forces at this stage of the campaign? Is it realistic we can do much?
TURNER: I think we're doing it. I think we're accelerating the movement of the 4th ID forward. We've redirected a Marine unit out of the Horn of Africa. And so what we've done is gone into the plan, and obviously, this was part of the plan. This rolling start, these rolling reserves are being accelerated and moved up. We've got -- I believe I saw this morning 70,000, 80,000 more troops that are beginning now to enter the battle area, and I think that's great. We'll just have to wait and see.
And again, this could be a stunning military victory. We're beginning to have some indications now that, in fact, Saddam may actually be dead, and that's highly -- that's conjecture on my part, but there are some solid indications of that, that this whole command structure could collapse tomorrow, and we could walk into Baghdad unopposed.
On the other hand, it could become a very difficult and potentially very tragic battle, and the leanness of our forces gives me some concern.
ZAHN: Let's talk about what you think some of the challenges might be if this war moves on into Baghdad. Martin Savidge shared some pictures with us of some of the house-to-house searches that had been done in villages south of Baghdad, and he talked about the tremendous fear that coalition forces have that you're going to have Iraqi soldiers dressed in civilians clothes that might hurt these troops. How do you protect against that?
TURNER: Well, candidly, I think the best protection we have against that really horrific scenario which was, frankly, fairly predictable from quite a long ways back, is the collapse of the regime and the psychological war that's being waged, clearly behind the scenes, and the possibility that we can end this relatively bloodlessly with, if you will, a regime change fairly bloodlessly in Baghdad. That would obviate the need to do these kinds of brutal house-to-house searches and street-to-street fighting that we can possibly see in Baghdad, and probably obviate the need for the Iraqis to use weapons of mass destruction if that is, in fact, their plan.
But that's an awful lot to gamble on that sort of a political victory, particularly given the fact we have seen more resistance than we anticipated, and that we've not seen the wild liberation, civilian population, that we expected to see in this operation.
So it's a dicey operation at this point. Everything appears to be on track based on the adjustments we've made, and I think that's great. And I think we got an opportunity for a great victory here. But I think the best way, frankly, to avoid that kind of battle is to preempt it by removing the regime by other means before we have to do it.
ZAHN: I guess a lot of folks are hoping that will happen. Finally, this morning, you say that a major part of this campaign now is the air campaign. This is CENTCOM briefers telling us that they believe they've reduced the fighting ability of the Republican Guard by some 50 percent. I'm just curious how you even begin to analyze that, and what evidence you've seen of that, if any.
TURNER: Well, a lot of it -- we had the same criteria for Desert Storm, to reduce the combat effectiveness by 50 percent before we started the ground campaign. A lot of it comes through the debriefs of the various air crews and what they saw and what they hit on the battlefield.
Remember, as these forces deploy into the battlefield, and the strike flights go across these forces, they can begin to assess fairly accurately the effect that they're having on those battlefield forces.
When you see a tank burning, it's pretty obviously a tank burning and when you begin to see a lot of those happening and disarray on the battlefield, it becomes fairly easy to analyze that and say, we think we've hit them pretty hard, and we're going to estimate that their combat effectiveness is down to 50 percent. It's a judgment call, but it's an experienced judgment call. And I think that's probably the weakest point that the guard has right now, is what the airpower is doing to them.
ZAHN: Colonel turner, we always appreciate your insight. It's like having a very thorough military briefing right here in the air. Thanks again for dropping by this morning.
Thank you, Paula.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
