Return to Transcripts main page
American Morning
Baghdad Said to be Surrounded by U.S. Forces.
Aired April 06, 2003 - 09:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello again from Kuwait city. I'm Bill Hemmer on this Sunday. Good to have you with us. Walt Rodgers again, as Leon just said, reporting that Baghdad is said to be surrounded by U.S. forces. Walt tells us all major roads leading out of the city are now sealed and encircled, and that commanders are telling him that anyone wanting to stay alive should stay off the road. CentCom says 2,000 to possibly 3,000 Iraqis killed yesterday, on Saturday alone, during fighting in and around Baghdad.
Southern Iraq embedded reporter Richard Gaisford now reporting that Basra is close to falling to the hands of the British. He says British troops are in the urban area and not facing much resistance inside the city.
More information, too, about the friendly fire incident in northern Iraq. We're hearing now from Kurdish sources that U.S. special operations forces were traveling with the fighters at the time when the convoy was bombed. Reportedly by a U.S. warplane. At least 12 Kurdish Peshmerga fighters are dead, as many as 45 may be hurt.
We have not heard of any U.S. casualties so far, but it is certainly always a possibility, given the numbers that we are told that were working now and traveling with that group in the north.
Here's Heidi Collins again, at the CNN center. Heidi, good morning, back to you.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Bill.
We are going to go ahead and get some other late developments with the war now. CentCom says U.S. forces have killed combatants from outside Iraq at a training camp southeast of Baghdad. The fighters include some from Egypt and the Sudan; they were encountered when the marines went through Salman Pak. That's about six miles from the capital.
Iraq's information minister paints a different picture of the war. He says 50 coalition soldiers were killed yesterday and Iraqi troops wiped out six tanks and two helicopters. He also says Iraqi troops chased coalition forces back to the airport.
And there's word that Iraq has imposed travel lockdown now of Baghdad between 6:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. with no one allowed in or out. U.S. Central Command says that won't affect its operations.
Bill, back to you in Kuwait.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi, thanks.
Just getting word right now, Jane Arraf is back with us here in the north, near the town of Mosul, following up again this story that a BBC reporter earlier today said that he had witnessed a convoy getting bombed, himself was injured as a result of shrapnel hitting him. Jane's back with us to fill us in on some more of the pieces we're now missing. Good evening there, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, we're about 35 kilometers, that's about 20 miles southwest of the major city of Irbil, quite a ways from Mosul. But this is where, just down the road, that horrific incident happened very early this morning.
Bill, I just want to break away for a second and let you know that we're now hearing (UNINTELLIGIBLE). You can probably hear that F-14s have been flying overhead. We're at the front line. We're actually right at the front line, just a few feet away from the soldiers you can probably see. This is the air command center where they're actually calling in those planes, the F-14s, and telling them where to drop those bombs. They have been dropping 2,000-pound bombs on Iraqi tanks just further down the ridge.
Now, just in the opposite direction, towards Mosul, is where the incident happened very early this morning. It appears that a U.S. bomb did drop on a convoy of vehicles, and the latest count is that we have 12 Kurdish fighters killed, 45 wounded. Among the wounded, critically injured is a senior military commander, the younger brother of the man that people here refer to as the president of the region.
American casualties, I have to say, I know it has been announced by CentCom here on the ground, there are people who treated the wounded and they said they knew of no Americans. But they may actually have been traveling in a separate vehicle along with that senior Kurdish official, the military commander. Bill?
HEMMER: All right, Jane. Jane Arraf, watching that story from the north. When you get more, Jane, we'd love to hear it. Thanks again, Jane Arraf, there. Heidi?
COLLINS: Thanks, Bill.
Fort Bliss is mourning the loss of seven soldiers from the 507th Maintenance Company. They were in a convoy that was attacked on March 23. Their bodies were recovered from a hospital in Nasiriya during the rescue of Private Jessica Lynch. A memorial service is planned this morning.
Our Ed Lavandera reports now with more from Fort Bliss. Good morning to you, Ed.
ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Heidi. Well, what you see behind me is the chapel here at Fort Bliss. In about a half an hour or so, the Catholic church service will be under way. This is a chapel where they do various denominational services on this Sunday. It's a regularly scheduled service, but much more poignant this morning. The bishop of El Paso had tried to schedule six weeks ago to celebrate mass with many family members of those soldiers that had been deployed from here at Fort Bliss. And this is the first opportunity the bishop of El Paso has had to do this.
Of course, with the news that happened with the seven members of the - pardon, nine members of the 507 Maintenance Company that have died in Iraq, very much a huge reason to pray here this morning. There are also five soldiers that are still considered to be prisoners of war so that's very much on the minds of churchgoers here this morning as they fill into the church services here this morning.
Also, on base here you can get a sense of how emotional things are. This is Memorial Field, just across the street from the chapel here at Fort Bliss. Flags are at half-staff. Just below the American flag, you can see the POW/MIA flag flying as well. This is Memorial Field, and this is a base that has been paying very close attention to the story of the 507th Maintenance Company over the course of the last two weeks. It was exactly two weeks ago that this ambush occurred near the town of Nasiriya in Iraq.
Inside the church service, inside the chapel here this morning, you can see parishioners filing in already this morning, getting ready for church services that, as I mentioned, are scheduled to begin here shortly. The bishop hasn't arrived here yet, but as soon as he does, this church service will be under way.
We're told that the bishop has been wanting to speak with members of the families that have been deployed here. And this is his first opportunity to do so. Heidi?
COLLINS: All right, Ed Lavandera, that memorial service to begin at 10:00 at Fort Bliss. Thanks, Ed.
Back to Bill now in Kuwait.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi. President Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair will convene early this week in Northern Ireland to talk about a number of topics. But first and foremost is the battle right now inside of Iraq. And Dana Bash is right now live at the White House to fill us in on what more she's learning about this summit that will come very soon.
Dana, good morning.
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill. Well, the president is at Camp David today. And as you said, he is preparing for a two-day summit with his chief ally in the war with Iraq, British Prime Minister Tony Blair. And this will be the third time that the two men will have met in under a month face-to-face.
And aides to both of them say, that though they talk regularly on the telephone about everything dealing with Iraq and the process of the war, it is very helpful to them, they say, to meet face-to-face. That the meetings they've had, like the one just a little over a week ago at Camp David, have been very productive for them.
And the location, Northern Ireland, the White House says, is in part because it is the five-year anniversary of the so-called Good Friday agreement that started the peace process moving in Northern Ireland. And it is a place that provides symbolism for a peace process that can work, or has at least started to work, in that region.
The two men will talk about the peace process in the Mideast as well. But, of course, the number one topic on the agenda is Iraq. We're told that they will talk, certainly, about the military effort as troops, coalition troops, are in and around Baghdad.
But the bulk of their discussion, we're told, will be about what to do after Saddam Hussein is officially toppled, after that regime is toppled. They'll talk about humanitarian aid, reconstruction efforts.
And the stickiest issue will be what to do about a post-Saddam Hussein government. What to do about an interim government and who will be taking the lead in making that government happen and bringing the government together.
Tony Blair has made clear that he thinks that the U.N. should have a big role in that. And here at the White House, they're making clear that although they want the U.N. to be involved in humanitarian efforts, they are not -- they do not think that the U.N. should have the lead role in terms of getting the government up and running. Condoleezza Rice saying that they believe that those who gave their life and blood should take the lead. And that, of course, is the U.S. and Great Britain, and not other members of the U.N. Bill?
HEMMER: All right, Dana, thanks. Dana Bash, front lawn of the White House working the story back there in D.C. Again, here's Heidi.
COLLINS: Coming up now, should Baghdad be contained or taken? An intelligence analyst says there will be no victory until the capital falls. He explains why just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
Last hour, we were talking about the situation, about the battle for Basra in the southeastern part of Iraq. A reporter at the time, embedded with the British, indicated that it appeared as if Basra was now falling. Diana Muriel from CNN also embedded in that part of Iraq and joins us by way of telephone.
Diana, I don't know if your reporting is going as far as the previous report we had, but from your perspective right now, what is the situation inside Basra, with the British?
DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, I moved up with the 1st Battalion, the Black Watch, which is part of the 7th Armored Brigade, who made a concerted push at first light into Basra from the south. It certainly seems that we have very little resistance from the Iraqi fighters. We were engaged at first bridge at a shantytown just north of it, but after that it did seem as if most of the Iraqi fighters were melting away.
I spoke with Lieutenant Colonel Mike Goodell-Webster(ph), who is the commander of the Black Watch, and he told me that the British are now fanning out through the city to secure key strategic positions and that they are in the process of securing the city. He wouldn't go so far as to say they are in control of it.
There are still pockets of resistance. They are anticipating. It is late afternoon here in Basra, and the real test of how much the British do control the city will come this evening. That is, at least, the assumption amongst the military, when there may be further fighting.
But I should say, as we came into the city, there was very little resistance, the tanks rolled by. The people of Basra came out, many of them waved, giving the thumbs up signal, many of them stood on, looking quite bemused as the tanks went past. And it seems a relatively easy access to the center of Basra.
Right now, groups of British tanks are deploying and others are trying to find safe harbors, as they describe them in British military speak, safe compounds to keep groups of tanks in overnight and taking up defensive positions within the city. I have heard some firing, but very little, and it seems that the British are doing their best to secure the city at this stage. Bill?
HEMMER: Listen, I don't have much time for this, Diana, but I want to know. They've surrounded the city for the better part of two weeks right now. What did they see on the inside of that town that allowed them to make the move they made earlier today?
MURIEL: What seemed to have happened, Bill, was that there was an extremely successful bombing raid on a particular building two nights ago. Now, I cannot confirm who was killed there, but I have been told by senior British military sources that senior Baath party members died, relatives, possibly cousins, of Saddam Hussein who were also at that meeting died. And that possibly, also, the body guard of Chemical Ali, the Marshall who has been given charge of Basra, a trusted henchman of Saddam Hussein, responsible for Halabja's massacre. He was also killed. Not Chemical Ali himself, that's not confirmed.
The British military sources have indicated they believe the bodyguard could have been killed and that may have taken out some of the senior personnel who were in control of the city. It was described to me that they were in disarray, and that meant that this probe could become a big push for the city itself. Bill?
HEMMER: Could be very, very significant. Diana, thanks. Diana Muriel there in Basra. Heidi now, in Atlanta.
COLLINS: Thanks, Bill.
One of the questions out there is, can there be victory in Iraq without the fall of Baghdad? Intelligence analyst George Friedman says no, and he says that's why this is a critical moment now for coalition forces. He joins us from Austin, Texas, this morning. Good morning, Mr. Friedman.
GEORGE FRIEDMAN, CNN INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: Good morning, how are you?
COLLINS: I'm great. I'm wondering if you can spell out, real quickly for us, these three different military strategies that you have studied so hard. The fall of Paris, the siege of Budapest, and the fall of Berlin. Which one of these do you think coalition forces would really like to model themselves after?
FRIEDMAN: First of all, they're all from the Second World War. That really was the last time where world class cities of multimillion people were taken.
Battle of Paris was ideal. The German government there just collapsed, capitulated to the United States. U.S. troops rolled into the city, hardly any resistance.
Berlin was a nightmare. The soviet troops surrounded the city. They had complete air superiority, they were seasoned fighters. They confronted a ragtag army of old men and children. They lost almost 80,000 in three days of fighting. Dead. Quarter million casualties.
Budapest, 1944, the soviet army surrounds the city, surrounds it for about six weeks, hammers it, attacks it in various ways, and finally the Germans collapse.
The obvious ideal to the United States is Paris, a sudden capitulation by the Iraqi army, surrender, no casualties on either side. We seem to be moving closer to the Budapest model right now.
COLLINS: That's what I was just going to ask you. That certainly seems true. And as I said, you say this is a pivotal moment for coalition forces. What ultimately will determine how this battle unfolds in your eyes?
FRIEDMAN: More than anything else, what the Iraqis do. You know, we can plan, the United States can deploy its forces. But in the end, the fundamental question is, will the Iraqi troops fight? How well will they fight? How long will they fight?
Right now, that answer's still not clear. There seems to be some resistance, but not nearly as heavy resistance as one might think. So either we're going to get very lucky, and the Iraqis are going to throw in the towel early, or they're a disciplined force, they're holding their fire, they're waiting until we commit main troops.
One of the things we're doing is probing into the city, trying to get some intelligence on precisely how intense this battle is going to be.
COLLINS: Mr. Friedman, what sort of intelligence would Tommy Franks then be looking for specifically?
FRIEDMAN: Well, he sent in some armor yesterday. What he was looking for is, what kind of fire were they going to draw? What kind of weapons did they have? Where are the weapons?
When you probe into the city, you're doing it in part just to draw the fire and try to map out where the opposition is, find out how much, what kind of weapons they have, and the most important thing is, will they stand in the face of counterfire.
I think we'll see more attacks like we saw yesterday, by the armor probing heavily into the Iraqi positions, not to hold them so much, but to try to map them, to try to draw them out, to try to figure out what they're up to.
COLLINS: George Friedman coming to us today, and we certainly appreciate all of your information. Our intelligence analyst. Thank you, sir. We send it back now to Bill in Kuwait.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi. Throughout this conflict, and even before it began, we heard well-known names back in the U.S. come out against the war. Now, we're asking the question, is there backlash against those celebrities? Jeff Greenfield has the profile when we continue right after this, on this Sunday.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: All right, from Central Command earlier today in the discussion about the Republican Guard, CentCom does believe that there are some amount of forces still out there. But as for a significant shift right now, or migration back into Baghdad, apparently, it has not happened. They describe it as maybe 20, or maybe 30, vehicles at a time, based on the observations they have gotten and the intelligence information they've taken in as well.
Down at CentCom, Tom Mintier is standing by with more information on this. Tom, what are you learning right now about the Republican Guard from your position there?
TOM MINTIER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, this is something that just came out from the CentCom's director of strategic communications, Jim Wilkinson.
Apparently from intelligence that the U.S. has garnered inside Baghdad, saying that the coalition has continued to destroy the combat capability of the Republican Guard elements, that the Iraqi regime has directed those forces to move into areas that put innocent Iraqis in danger and threatened sensitive sites. The release goes on to say that they have reliable information that these Republican Guard forces have been directed and ordered to move into mosques and hospitals to conduct military operations, as they say. The locations, two of them, include the Mother of All Battles mosque in northwest Baghdad and the Saddam hospital.
Now, both of these locations, the CentCom says, remain on the no- strike list, so these will not be hit. But they say they do have reliable information that the Republican Guard elements have moved into those two locations and they're using them for combat operations. Something that CentCom says put innocent Iraqis in danger and threatens sensitive sites. But again, CentCom saying that these two locations where elements of the Republican Guard have moved into, the Mother of All Battles mosque, a very large facility, and the Saddam hospital remain on the coalition no-strike list. Bill?
HEMMER: And Tom, what are they saying about numbers? Do they have a fair assessment right now about how many members of the Republican Guard are still in existence and ready to fight right now in Iraq?
MINTIER: That's a number that's really hard to determine. We heard yesterday that the combat capability of the Republican Guard, in their estimation, CentCom's estimation, was just 30 percent of what it was before the war started.
There was a number put out today after this morning's General Franks briefing of his staff that the reports of 2,000 Iraqi soldiers being killed on the march into the Baghdad was too low, that the number was much, much higher.
So just what the real battle damage assessments are and how the Republican Guard has been hit, we have heard throughout the past week that elements and divisions have lost their combat capability. No longer a formidable fighting force.
A lot of reports yesterday as they made their way through positions that tanks and armored personnel carriers were simply left out on the battlefield, uniforms strewn aside, no sign of the individuals. But apparently, if more than 2,000 Iraqi soldiers lost their lives in the push toward Baghdad yesterday, there was a lot of significant fighting.
HEMMER: Tom, thanks. Tom Mintier down at Central Command. Heidi?
COLLINS: Thanks, Bill.
Will some fans turn against celebrities who've have spoken out against the war? Reports last week said Dreamworks had cautioned comedian Chris Rock not to make comments against President Bush while promoting his new movie, for fear of triggering a boycott. Are these anti-war efforts silencing celebrities? As our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield reports, that all depends.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST (voice-over): When Natalie Maines, lead singer of the Dixie Chicks, told a London audience they were ashamed President Bush was from Texas, there was no reaction at first. But when her comments were posted on the Drudge Report and other websites, that changed.
UNIDENTIFIED MAN: To go on foreign soil and make such a remark like that is an insult.
GREENFIELD: Country music radio stations pulled the CD off the air. There were protest gatherings at which Dixie Chicks CDs were destroyed, and sales of their latest album, "Home," dropped more than 40 percent in a week.
But when singer/songwriter Sheryl Crow posted anti-war sentiments on her website, there was no impact at all. Indeed, barely a mention anywhere.
Why? One strong possibility is the difference in audiences. Country music's big strength is in the so-called red states, southern, western, more conservative. While rock and folk nurture protest music, country music is the home of "Okie from Muskogee," and "God Bless the U.S.A." One country star, Toby Keith, has harsh words for the Dixie Chicks.
TOBY KEITH, COUNTRY MUSIC STAR: She just got a big mouth, and it just gets her in more trouble.
GREENFIELD: Here's actress Susan Sarandon. She was disinvited to a United Way fundraiser. Her political activities made her too controversial for the Florida group.
But what about Martin Sheen, who plays President Bartlett on "The West Wing?" He's been arrested dozens of times in peace demonstrations. He's cut an anti-war commercial.
MARTIN SHEEN, ACTOR: Inspections work, war won't.
GREENFIELD: But it's almost impossible to organize a boycott of a television show. Anyway, the president Sheen plays has actually sent troops into foreign countries.
There's something more fundamental. This isn't the late '40s or early '50s. No congressional committees investigating subversives in Hollywood, and no black list of show business folks with suspect political views. Today, late night comedians lampoon political leaders, and the press, for that matter, with little fear of retaliation.
JAY LENO, COMEDIAN: President Bush said we'd stay in Iraq for as long as it takes. That's the same policy he had in high school.
GREENFIELD: Even Bill Maher, who was frozen out by ABC after his post-September 11th comments about cowardly American military policy, now has a new home on HBO.
GREENFIELD (on-camera): In other words, an entertainer's vulnerability to a political backlash really does depend. For instance, if Bruce Springsteen were to issue a new version of "War" that explicitly attacked President Bush's policy, or Eminem were to issue an anti-war rap, does anyone think their fans would turn against them?
Even when Pearl Jam mocked President Bush last week, only a few dozen people walked out. Raise the same issue about Garth Brooks and his fans, and you'll likely get a very different reaction. Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE) COLLINS: We'll check the latest developments on the war in Iraq with Leon Harris, coming up right after this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 6, 2003 - 09:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello again from Kuwait city. I'm Bill Hemmer on this Sunday. Good to have you with us. Walt Rodgers again, as Leon just said, reporting that Baghdad is said to be surrounded by U.S. forces. Walt tells us all major roads leading out of the city are now sealed and encircled, and that commanders are telling him that anyone wanting to stay alive should stay off the road. CentCom says 2,000 to possibly 3,000 Iraqis killed yesterday, on Saturday alone, during fighting in and around Baghdad.
Southern Iraq embedded reporter Richard Gaisford now reporting that Basra is close to falling to the hands of the British. He says British troops are in the urban area and not facing much resistance inside the city.
More information, too, about the friendly fire incident in northern Iraq. We're hearing now from Kurdish sources that U.S. special operations forces were traveling with the fighters at the time when the convoy was bombed. Reportedly by a U.S. warplane. At least 12 Kurdish Peshmerga fighters are dead, as many as 45 may be hurt.
We have not heard of any U.S. casualties so far, but it is certainly always a possibility, given the numbers that we are told that were working now and traveling with that group in the north.
Here's Heidi Collins again, at the CNN center. Heidi, good morning, back to you.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Bill.
We are going to go ahead and get some other late developments with the war now. CentCom says U.S. forces have killed combatants from outside Iraq at a training camp southeast of Baghdad. The fighters include some from Egypt and the Sudan; they were encountered when the marines went through Salman Pak. That's about six miles from the capital.
Iraq's information minister paints a different picture of the war. He says 50 coalition soldiers were killed yesterday and Iraqi troops wiped out six tanks and two helicopters. He also says Iraqi troops chased coalition forces back to the airport.
And there's word that Iraq has imposed travel lockdown now of Baghdad between 6:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. with no one allowed in or out. U.S. Central Command says that won't affect its operations.
Bill, back to you in Kuwait.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi, thanks.
Just getting word right now, Jane Arraf is back with us here in the north, near the town of Mosul, following up again this story that a BBC reporter earlier today said that he had witnessed a convoy getting bombed, himself was injured as a result of shrapnel hitting him. Jane's back with us to fill us in on some more of the pieces we're now missing. Good evening there, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, we're about 35 kilometers, that's about 20 miles southwest of the major city of Irbil, quite a ways from Mosul. But this is where, just down the road, that horrific incident happened very early this morning.
Bill, I just want to break away for a second and let you know that we're now hearing (UNINTELLIGIBLE). You can probably hear that F-14s have been flying overhead. We're at the front line. We're actually right at the front line, just a few feet away from the soldiers you can probably see. This is the air command center where they're actually calling in those planes, the F-14s, and telling them where to drop those bombs. They have been dropping 2,000-pound bombs on Iraqi tanks just further down the ridge.
Now, just in the opposite direction, towards Mosul, is where the incident happened very early this morning. It appears that a U.S. bomb did drop on a convoy of vehicles, and the latest count is that we have 12 Kurdish fighters killed, 45 wounded. Among the wounded, critically injured is a senior military commander, the younger brother of the man that people here refer to as the president of the region.
American casualties, I have to say, I know it has been announced by CentCom here on the ground, there are people who treated the wounded and they said they knew of no Americans. But they may actually have been traveling in a separate vehicle along with that senior Kurdish official, the military commander. Bill?
HEMMER: All right, Jane. Jane Arraf, watching that story from the north. When you get more, Jane, we'd love to hear it. Thanks again, Jane Arraf, there. Heidi?
COLLINS: Thanks, Bill.
Fort Bliss is mourning the loss of seven soldiers from the 507th Maintenance Company. They were in a convoy that was attacked on March 23. Their bodies were recovered from a hospital in Nasiriya during the rescue of Private Jessica Lynch. A memorial service is planned this morning.
Our Ed Lavandera reports now with more from Fort Bliss. Good morning to you, Ed.
ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Heidi. Well, what you see behind me is the chapel here at Fort Bliss. In about a half an hour or so, the Catholic church service will be under way. This is a chapel where they do various denominational services on this Sunday. It's a regularly scheduled service, but much more poignant this morning. The bishop of El Paso had tried to schedule six weeks ago to celebrate mass with many family members of those soldiers that had been deployed from here at Fort Bliss. And this is the first opportunity the bishop of El Paso has had to do this.
Of course, with the news that happened with the seven members of the - pardon, nine members of the 507 Maintenance Company that have died in Iraq, very much a huge reason to pray here this morning. There are also five soldiers that are still considered to be prisoners of war so that's very much on the minds of churchgoers here this morning as they fill into the church services here this morning.
Also, on base here you can get a sense of how emotional things are. This is Memorial Field, just across the street from the chapel here at Fort Bliss. Flags are at half-staff. Just below the American flag, you can see the POW/MIA flag flying as well. This is Memorial Field, and this is a base that has been paying very close attention to the story of the 507th Maintenance Company over the course of the last two weeks. It was exactly two weeks ago that this ambush occurred near the town of Nasiriya in Iraq.
Inside the church service, inside the chapel here this morning, you can see parishioners filing in already this morning, getting ready for church services that, as I mentioned, are scheduled to begin here shortly. The bishop hasn't arrived here yet, but as soon as he does, this church service will be under way.
We're told that the bishop has been wanting to speak with members of the families that have been deployed here. And this is his first opportunity to do so. Heidi?
COLLINS: All right, Ed Lavandera, that memorial service to begin at 10:00 at Fort Bliss. Thanks, Ed.
Back to Bill now in Kuwait.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi. President Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair will convene early this week in Northern Ireland to talk about a number of topics. But first and foremost is the battle right now inside of Iraq. And Dana Bash is right now live at the White House to fill us in on what more she's learning about this summit that will come very soon.
Dana, good morning.
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill. Well, the president is at Camp David today. And as you said, he is preparing for a two-day summit with his chief ally in the war with Iraq, British Prime Minister Tony Blair. And this will be the third time that the two men will have met in under a month face-to-face.
And aides to both of them say, that though they talk regularly on the telephone about everything dealing with Iraq and the process of the war, it is very helpful to them, they say, to meet face-to-face. That the meetings they've had, like the one just a little over a week ago at Camp David, have been very productive for them.
And the location, Northern Ireland, the White House says, is in part because it is the five-year anniversary of the so-called Good Friday agreement that started the peace process moving in Northern Ireland. And it is a place that provides symbolism for a peace process that can work, or has at least started to work, in that region.
The two men will talk about the peace process in the Mideast as well. But, of course, the number one topic on the agenda is Iraq. We're told that they will talk, certainly, about the military effort as troops, coalition troops, are in and around Baghdad.
But the bulk of their discussion, we're told, will be about what to do after Saddam Hussein is officially toppled, after that regime is toppled. They'll talk about humanitarian aid, reconstruction efforts.
And the stickiest issue will be what to do about a post-Saddam Hussein government. What to do about an interim government and who will be taking the lead in making that government happen and bringing the government together.
Tony Blair has made clear that he thinks that the U.N. should have a big role in that. And here at the White House, they're making clear that although they want the U.N. to be involved in humanitarian efforts, they are not -- they do not think that the U.N. should have the lead role in terms of getting the government up and running. Condoleezza Rice saying that they believe that those who gave their life and blood should take the lead. And that, of course, is the U.S. and Great Britain, and not other members of the U.N. Bill?
HEMMER: All right, Dana, thanks. Dana Bash, front lawn of the White House working the story back there in D.C. Again, here's Heidi.
COLLINS: Coming up now, should Baghdad be contained or taken? An intelligence analyst says there will be no victory until the capital falls. He explains why just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
Last hour, we were talking about the situation, about the battle for Basra in the southeastern part of Iraq. A reporter at the time, embedded with the British, indicated that it appeared as if Basra was now falling. Diana Muriel from CNN also embedded in that part of Iraq and joins us by way of telephone.
Diana, I don't know if your reporting is going as far as the previous report we had, but from your perspective right now, what is the situation inside Basra, with the British?
DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, I moved up with the 1st Battalion, the Black Watch, which is part of the 7th Armored Brigade, who made a concerted push at first light into Basra from the south. It certainly seems that we have very little resistance from the Iraqi fighters. We were engaged at first bridge at a shantytown just north of it, but after that it did seem as if most of the Iraqi fighters were melting away.
I spoke with Lieutenant Colonel Mike Goodell-Webster(ph), who is the commander of the Black Watch, and he told me that the British are now fanning out through the city to secure key strategic positions and that they are in the process of securing the city. He wouldn't go so far as to say they are in control of it.
There are still pockets of resistance. They are anticipating. It is late afternoon here in Basra, and the real test of how much the British do control the city will come this evening. That is, at least, the assumption amongst the military, when there may be further fighting.
But I should say, as we came into the city, there was very little resistance, the tanks rolled by. The people of Basra came out, many of them waved, giving the thumbs up signal, many of them stood on, looking quite bemused as the tanks went past. And it seems a relatively easy access to the center of Basra.
Right now, groups of British tanks are deploying and others are trying to find safe harbors, as they describe them in British military speak, safe compounds to keep groups of tanks in overnight and taking up defensive positions within the city. I have heard some firing, but very little, and it seems that the British are doing their best to secure the city at this stage. Bill?
HEMMER: Listen, I don't have much time for this, Diana, but I want to know. They've surrounded the city for the better part of two weeks right now. What did they see on the inside of that town that allowed them to make the move they made earlier today?
MURIEL: What seemed to have happened, Bill, was that there was an extremely successful bombing raid on a particular building two nights ago. Now, I cannot confirm who was killed there, but I have been told by senior British military sources that senior Baath party members died, relatives, possibly cousins, of Saddam Hussein who were also at that meeting died. And that possibly, also, the body guard of Chemical Ali, the Marshall who has been given charge of Basra, a trusted henchman of Saddam Hussein, responsible for Halabja's massacre. He was also killed. Not Chemical Ali himself, that's not confirmed.
The British military sources have indicated they believe the bodyguard could have been killed and that may have taken out some of the senior personnel who were in control of the city. It was described to me that they were in disarray, and that meant that this probe could become a big push for the city itself. Bill?
HEMMER: Could be very, very significant. Diana, thanks. Diana Muriel there in Basra. Heidi now, in Atlanta.
COLLINS: Thanks, Bill.
One of the questions out there is, can there be victory in Iraq without the fall of Baghdad? Intelligence analyst George Friedman says no, and he says that's why this is a critical moment now for coalition forces. He joins us from Austin, Texas, this morning. Good morning, Mr. Friedman.
GEORGE FRIEDMAN, CNN INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: Good morning, how are you?
COLLINS: I'm great. I'm wondering if you can spell out, real quickly for us, these three different military strategies that you have studied so hard. The fall of Paris, the siege of Budapest, and the fall of Berlin. Which one of these do you think coalition forces would really like to model themselves after?
FRIEDMAN: First of all, they're all from the Second World War. That really was the last time where world class cities of multimillion people were taken.
Battle of Paris was ideal. The German government there just collapsed, capitulated to the United States. U.S. troops rolled into the city, hardly any resistance.
Berlin was a nightmare. The soviet troops surrounded the city. They had complete air superiority, they were seasoned fighters. They confronted a ragtag army of old men and children. They lost almost 80,000 in three days of fighting. Dead. Quarter million casualties.
Budapest, 1944, the soviet army surrounds the city, surrounds it for about six weeks, hammers it, attacks it in various ways, and finally the Germans collapse.
The obvious ideal to the United States is Paris, a sudden capitulation by the Iraqi army, surrender, no casualties on either side. We seem to be moving closer to the Budapest model right now.
COLLINS: That's what I was just going to ask you. That certainly seems true. And as I said, you say this is a pivotal moment for coalition forces. What ultimately will determine how this battle unfolds in your eyes?
FRIEDMAN: More than anything else, what the Iraqis do. You know, we can plan, the United States can deploy its forces. But in the end, the fundamental question is, will the Iraqi troops fight? How well will they fight? How long will they fight?
Right now, that answer's still not clear. There seems to be some resistance, but not nearly as heavy resistance as one might think. So either we're going to get very lucky, and the Iraqis are going to throw in the towel early, or they're a disciplined force, they're holding their fire, they're waiting until we commit main troops.
One of the things we're doing is probing into the city, trying to get some intelligence on precisely how intense this battle is going to be.
COLLINS: Mr. Friedman, what sort of intelligence would Tommy Franks then be looking for specifically?
FRIEDMAN: Well, he sent in some armor yesterday. What he was looking for is, what kind of fire were they going to draw? What kind of weapons did they have? Where are the weapons?
When you probe into the city, you're doing it in part just to draw the fire and try to map out where the opposition is, find out how much, what kind of weapons they have, and the most important thing is, will they stand in the face of counterfire.
I think we'll see more attacks like we saw yesterday, by the armor probing heavily into the Iraqi positions, not to hold them so much, but to try to map them, to try to draw them out, to try to figure out what they're up to.
COLLINS: George Friedman coming to us today, and we certainly appreciate all of your information. Our intelligence analyst. Thank you, sir. We send it back now to Bill in Kuwait.
HEMMER: All right, Heidi. Throughout this conflict, and even before it began, we heard well-known names back in the U.S. come out against the war. Now, we're asking the question, is there backlash against those celebrities? Jeff Greenfield has the profile when we continue right after this, on this Sunday.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: All right, from Central Command earlier today in the discussion about the Republican Guard, CentCom does believe that there are some amount of forces still out there. But as for a significant shift right now, or migration back into Baghdad, apparently, it has not happened. They describe it as maybe 20, or maybe 30, vehicles at a time, based on the observations they have gotten and the intelligence information they've taken in as well.
Down at CentCom, Tom Mintier is standing by with more information on this. Tom, what are you learning right now about the Republican Guard from your position there?
TOM MINTIER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, this is something that just came out from the CentCom's director of strategic communications, Jim Wilkinson.
Apparently from intelligence that the U.S. has garnered inside Baghdad, saying that the coalition has continued to destroy the combat capability of the Republican Guard elements, that the Iraqi regime has directed those forces to move into areas that put innocent Iraqis in danger and threatened sensitive sites. The release goes on to say that they have reliable information that these Republican Guard forces have been directed and ordered to move into mosques and hospitals to conduct military operations, as they say. The locations, two of them, include the Mother of All Battles mosque in northwest Baghdad and the Saddam hospital.
Now, both of these locations, the CentCom says, remain on the no- strike list, so these will not be hit. But they say they do have reliable information that the Republican Guard elements have moved into those two locations and they're using them for combat operations. Something that CentCom says put innocent Iraqis in danger and threatens sensitive sites. But again, CentCom saying that these two locations where elements of the Republican Guard have moved into, the Mother of All Battles mosque, a very large facility, and the Saddam hospital remain on the coalition no-strike list. Bill?
HEMMER: And Tom, what are they saying about numbers? Do they have a fair assessment right now about how many members of the Republican Guard are still in existence and ready to fight right now in Iraq?
MINTIER: That's a number that's really hard to determine. We heard yesterday that the combat capability of the Republican Guard, in their estimation, CentCom's estimation, was just 30 percent of what it was before the war started.
There was a number put out today after this morning's General Franks briefing of his staff that the reports of 2,000 Iraqi soldiers being killed on the march into the Baghdad was too low, that the number was much, much higher.
So just what the real battle damage assessments are and how the Republican Guard has been hit, we have heard throughout the past week that elements and divisions have lost their combat capability. No longer a formidable fighting force.
A lot of reports yesterday as they made their way through positions that tanks and armored personnel carriers were simply left out on the battlefield, uniforms strewn aside, no sign of the individuals. But apparently, if more than 2,000 Iraqi soldiers lost their lives in the push toward Baghdad yesterday, there was a lot of significant fighting.
HEMMER: Tom, thanks. Tom Mintier down at Central Command. Heidi?
COLLINS: Thanks, Bill.
Will some fans turn against celebrities who've have spoken out against the war? Reports last week said Dreamworks had cautioned comedian Chris Rock not to make comments against President Bush while promoting his new movie, for fear of triggering a boycott. Are these anti-war efforts silencing celebrities? As our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield reports, that all depends.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST (voice-over): When Natalie Maines, lead singer of the Dixie Chicks, told a London audience they were ashamed President Bush was from Texas, there was no reaction at first. But when her comments were posted on the Drudge Report and other websites, that changed.
UNIDENTIFIED MAN: To go on foreign soil and make such a remark like that is an insult.
GREENFIELD: Country music radio stations pulled the CD off the air. There were protest gatherings at which Dixie Chicks CDs were destroyed, and sales of their latest album, "Home," dropped more than 40 percent in a week.
But when singer/songwriter Sheryl Crow posted anti-war sentiments on her website, there was no impact at all. Indeed, barely a mention anywhere.
Why? One strong possibility is the difference in audiences. Country music's big strength is in the so-called red states, southern, western, more conservative. While rock and folk nurture protest music, country music is the home of "Okie from Muskogee," and "God Bless the U.S.A." One country star, Toby Keith, has harsh words for the Dixie Chicks.
TOBY KEITH, COUNTRY MUSIC STAR: She just got a big mouth, and it just gets her in more trouble.
GREENFIELD: Here's actress Susan Sarandon. She was disinvited to a United Way fundraiser. Her political activities made her too controversial for the Florida group.
But what about Martin Sheen, who plays President Bartlett on "The West Wing?" He's been arrested dozens of times in peace demonstrations. He's cut an anti-war commercial.
MARTIN SHEEN, ACTOR: Inspections work, war won't.
GREENFIELD: But it's almost impossible to organize a boycott of a television show. Anyway, the president Sheen plays has actually sent troops into foreign countries.
There's something more fundamental. This isn't the late '40s or early '50s. No congressional committees investigating subversives in Hollywood, and no black list of show business folks with suspect political views. Today, late night comedians lampoon political leaders, and the press, for that matter, with little fear of retaliation.
JAY LENO, COMEDIAN: President Bush said we'd stay in Iraq for as long as it takes. That's the same policy he had in high school.
GREENFIELD: Even Bill Maher, who was frozen out by ABC after his post-September 11th comments about cowardly American military policy, now has a new home on HBO.
GREENFIELD (on-camera): In other words, an entertainer's vulnerability to a political backlash really does depend. For instance, if Bruce Springsteen were to issue a new version of "War" that explicitly attacked President Bush's policy, or Eminem were to issue an anti-war rap, does anyone think their fans would turn against them?
Even when Pearl Jam mocked President Bush last week, only a few dozen people walked out. Raise the same issue about Garth Brooks and his fans, and you'll likely get a very different reaction. Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE) COLLINS: We'll check the latest developments on the war in Iraq with Leon Harris, coming up right after this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
