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CNN Live Today

Discussion with Pat Lang

Aired April 21, 2003 - 12:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: The man who will lead U.S. efforts to rebuild Iraq is now in Baghdad. Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Jay Garner is hoping to restore order throughout Iraq, while a new government is being established.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. JAY GARNER, (RET.) OFFICE OF RECONSTRUCTION: I'm not here on a victory parade at all. I'm here on a humanitarian, reconstruction, to help change the environment and do what I can for the Iraqi people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Let's get some perspective now on his mission from retired U.S. Army Colonel Pat Lang, a former Iraq analyst at the Defense Department, DIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, is joining us here in Washington.

Pat, thanks once again for joining us.

Mission impossible for General Garner?

COL. PAT LANG, (RET.) FMR. DEF. DEPT. IRAQ ANALYST: I think the whole reconstruction thing in Iraq is getting more confusing by the day, and the political situation, of course, affects that. General garner seems to be affected in the same way.

If you look at the organization of his outfit, there's a part for humanitarian aid, a part for civil administration, and a part for reconstruction, and this implies that this organization is going to exist for some period of time to get those things done.

And now we have General Garner in the streets of Baghdad saying I'm here basically to get lights turned back on and get humanitarian aid redistributed. And I think this probably reflects the fact that the anticipated state of politics in Iraq is not working out exactly as it had been expected.

BLITZER: Well, what was expected? What did the U.S. think would happen after a very quick victory?

LANG: It seems to be that the -- and I'm not privy to their thinking, but it seems to be that in fact, they thought the people would be so overjoyed by being liberated by our and the British forces, that in fact, that they would pretty well accede to whatever kind of process we thought would be a good idea that would enable them to select their own government, and some of the people, like we know Ahmad Chalabi would be significant players.

Instead, the Iraqis are taking advantage very quickly of the fact that we're rather thin on the ground, and especially in southern Iraq. The Shia clerical leaders are reaching out to take charge over these villages and small cities in a way that will be very difficult to reverse.

BLITZER: Two-thirds of the population of Iraq are Shia, and they've always been repressed by the Sunnis, who were the minority, but they control them. They want to come out now, and supposedly, supposedly the Iranians are meddle in trying to encourage them.

LANG: It's a funny situation with the Shia. Some of them are quite secular, maybe not as secular as Ahmad Chalabi, but pretty secular, and think of themselves as Iraqis. A lot of the others are essentially religious in their orientation and their leaders are identified with Tehran, and what we're apt to see is an extension, in fact, of Iranian power into Iraq if these people succeed in forming a government. So this is a confusing the situation from the U.S. government's point of view a lot.

BLITZER: How important is it for the United States to keep the territorial integrity of Iraq, instead of letting it explode into a Kurdish state in the north, a Sunni state in the middle and a Shia state in the south?

LANG: As you know, Iraq was originally created after World War i as a kind of post-colonial convenience, but in fact, it has come to have a lot of real existence in the mind of its people, and in fact, if we let it break up like that, and we will end up with the fact that the Shia in the south, as I say, will inevitably be attracted toward the Iranian gambit, and what we might have succeeded in doing is fostering the creation of a second mulocracy (ph), a second, Shia theocratic state in the region, which we wouldn't want to do, and of course, if there's a Kurdish breakaway state, then of course we're going to have big, big problem with the Turks.

BLITZER: One final question before I let you go -- how long do you believe U.S. military forces in significant numbers are going to be forced to remain on the ground throughout Iraq?

LANG: I think that this is going to be such a mess politically, that in fact, the people who think that it's going to be there for three or four years are in fact quite realistic. Whether or not our own political situation will allow that is a different matter.

BLITZER: You think we'll be there for a long time.

LANG: A long time.

BLITZER: A 100,000, 200,000.

LANG: I wouldn't be surprised to see 100,000 American troops in Iraq for an extended period of time.

BLITZER: Like more than a year? LANG: Yes.

BLITZER: All right, Pat Lang, thanks very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired April 21, 2003 - 12:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: The man who will lead U.S. efforts to rebuild Iraq is now in Baghdad. Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Jay Garner is hoping to restore order throughout Iraq, while a new government is being established.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. JAY GARNER, (RET.) OFFICE OF RECONSTRUCTION: I'm not here on a victory parade at all. I'm here on a humanitarian, reconstruction, to help change the environment and do what I can for the Iraqi people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: Let's get some perspective now on his mission from retired U.S. Army Colonel Pat Lang, a former Iraq analyst at the Defense Department, DIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, is joining us here in Washington.

Pat, thanks once again for joining us.

Mission impossible for General Garner?

COL. PAT LANG, (RET.) FMR. DEF. DEPT. IRAQ ANALYST: I think the whole reconstruction thing in Iraq is getting more confusing by the day, and the political situation, of course, affects that. General garner seems to be affected in the same way.

If you look at the organization of his outfit, there's a part for humanitarian aid, a part for civil administration, and a part for reconstruction, and this implies that this organization is going to exist for some period of time to get those things done.

And now we have General Garner in the streets of Baghdad saying I'm here basically to get lights turned back on and get humanitarian aid redistributed. And I think this probably reflects the fact that the anticipated state of politics in Iraq is not working out exactly as it had been expected.

BLITZER: Well, what was expected? What did the U.S. think would happen after a very quick victory?

LANG: It seems to be that the -- and I'm not privy to their thinking, but it seems to be that in fact, they thought the people would be so overjoyed by being liberated by our and the British forces, that in fact, that they would pretty well accede to whatever kind of process we thought would be a good idea that would enable them to select their own government, and some of the people, like we know Ahmad Chalabi would be significant players.

Instead, the Iraqis are taking advantage very quickly of the fact that we're rather thin on the ground, and especially in southern Iraq. The Shia clerical leaders are reaching out to take charge over these villages and small cities in a way that will be very difficult to reverse.

BLITZER: Two-thirds of the population of Iraq are Shia, and they've always been repressed by the Sunnis, who were the minority, but they control them. They want to come out now, and supposedly, supposedly the Iranians are meddle in trying to encourage them.

LANG: It's a funny situation with the Shia. Some of them are quite secular, maybe not as secular as Ahmad Chalabi, but pretty secular, and think of themselves as Iraqis. A lot of the others are essentially religious in their orientation and their leaders are identified with Tehran, and what we're apt to see is an extension, in fact, of Iranian power into Iraq if these people succeed in forming a government. So this is a confusing the situation from the U.S. government's point of view a lot.

BLITZER: How important is it for the United States to keep the territorial integrity of Iraq, instead of letting it explode into a Kurdish state in the north, a Sunni state in the middle and a Shia state in the south?

LANG: As you know, Iraq was originally created after World War i as a kind of post-colonial convenience, but in fact, it has come to have a lot of real existence in the mind of its people, and in fact, if we let it break up like that, and we will end up with the fact that the Shia in the south, as I say, will inevitably be attracted toward the Iranian gambit, and what we might have succeeded in doing is fostering the creation of a second mulocracy (ph), a second, Shia theocratic state in the region, which we wouldn't want to do, and of course, if there's a Kurdish breakaway state, then of course we're going to have big, big problem with the Turks.

BLITZER: One final question before I let you go -- how long do you believe U.S. military forces in significant numbers are going to be forced to remain on the ground throughout Iraq?

LANG: I think that this is going to be such a mess politically, that in fact, the people who think that it's going to be there for three or four years are in fact quite realistic. Whether or not our own political situation will allow that is a different matter.

BLITZER: You think we'll be there for a long time.

LANG: A long time.

BLITZER: A 100,000, 200,000.

LANG: I wouldn't be surprised to see 100,000 American troops in Iraq for an extended period of time.

BLITZER: Like more than a year? LANG: Yes.

BLITZER: All right, Pat Lang, thanks very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com