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CNN LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE
French Begin to Accept Coalition Victory in Iraq, Offer Funds for Rebuilding
Aired April 22, 2003 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, HOST: France today buckled under U.S. diplomatic pressure, accepting the reality of the coalition's victory in Iraq. France announced major concessions that could release billions of dollars for reconstruction of Iraq.
The French ambassador to the United Nations called for an immediate suspension of U.N. sanctions against Iraq. He also said the U.N.'s Oil for Food Programme should be phased out.
From the United Nations tonight, Michael Okwu will have the report on the significance of those announcements.
And from the White House, John King will report on the reaction from the Bush administration.
The coalition's victory could lead to lasting changes in the political landscape of the Middle East. Those changes could include a peace deal in the Israel-Palestinian conflict. We will be talking about the impact on the Middle East with Fawaz Gerges of Sarah Lawrence College, Richard Murphy, former U.N. ambassador to Syria.
The Centers for Disease Control said today there is still no effective treatment for the SARS virus. Health officials also say the death rate from the virus will continue to rise. Peter Viles will have a special report on the continuing spread of the disease around the globe and the struggle to contain the virus.
Also tonight, the growing military threat from North Korea, as it is set to begin talks on its nuclear program with the United States and China. North Korea could produce another five or six nuclear weapons within months if its nuclear program were to continue. We'll have a special report in conjunction with the with "The Economist" magazine tonight.
And we'll be talking with former national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, for his judgment on how the United States should carry on.
First we go to Anderson Cooper at CNN center in Atlanta for the latest headlines at this hour -- Anderson.
(NEWSBREAK)
DOBBS: The French government, under heavy pressure from the United States, today proposed an immediate suspension of U.N. sanctions against Iraq. France also recommended phasing out the United Nations' controversial Oil for Food Programme. The announcements could mark a turning point in U.S. efforts to help rebuild the Iraqi economy.
Michael Okwu joins us now from the United Nations with the report -- Michael.
MICHAEL OKWU, CNN U.N. CORRESPONDENT: Lou, good afternoon to you. There may be a little bit of nuance to all of this. The French ambassador did come forward for the first time since the war ended in Iraq to say that France would like to immediately suspend sanctions in Iraq, sanctions that have been in place since the early 1990s, but to unequivocally lift sanctions, which of course is what the United States would like to do, the French would still like to see U.N. inspectors on the ground as the chief verifying body of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
The French ambassador, Jean-Marc de la Sabliere.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JEAN-MARC DE LA SABLIERE, FRENCH AMBASSADOR TO U.N.: We should immediately suspend, suspend, suspend, immediately suspend the sanction, and about the Oil for Food Programme, we think that -- and we will discuss it this afternoon, there should be some adjustment to the program with a view of a phasing out of this program.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
OKWU: Lou, there's absolutely no hard resolution on the table, nothing in writing at this point. It is simply a loose proposal here at the Security Council.
But we understand that it may call for suspension of sanctions throughout a specific period of time, after which the Security Council can reconvene to basically renew these sanctions. Now, this would give the Security Council some continuing control of matters on the ground, and it also allows the French to officially be on the record as wanting to do something helpful to the Iraqi people.
But certainly, it's also causing some debate here on the Security Council, and perhaps that's what the French wanted to do. There are some very big questions here. Who would be in charge, for example, of letting -- of selling oil, and who would be in charge of procuring goods into the country? All very big questions that have been left unresolved by this announcement -- Lou.
DOBBS: Well, a big step toward resolution. These rather unequivocal statements by the French government, calling for the suspension of the oil for food program, unequivocally, and calling for a lifting of sanctions unequivocally. What is the Russian position in this, Michael?
OKWU: Well, the Russians have been saying, Lou, that they are all for the lifting of sanctions. The question is how do you get there. They say that they have not seen anything in writing from the French. They are reserving judgment until they get to that point -- Lou.
DOBBS: Michael Okwu from the United Nations. Thank you, Michael.
The chief U.N. weapons inspector, Hans Blix, today said U.N. inspectors should return to Iraq. Blix said the inspectors would be able, he said, to verify the discovery of any weapons of mass destruction.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HANS BLIX, CHIEF U.N. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: I am also convinced that the world and the Security Council, which has dealt with this issue for over 10 years, that they would like to have inspection and verification which bear the imprint of that independence and of some institution that is authorized by the whole international community.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: The White House, for its part, said coalition forces are responsible for finding and dismantling Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, not the United Nations. Senior White House Correspondent, John King, joins me now with the story -- John.
JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Lou, two very different moods here at the White House in regards to today's developments at the United Nations.
On the point of the French proposing a suspension of the sanctions, the White House views that, without question, as a move in the right direction. They agree here at the White House, as Michael Okwu just noted, there will be some bumps along the road in trying to find the right language, the phasing out of the sanctions.
They expect France and Russia to have some tough questions for the U.S., but they do believe the page is turning, if you will, and that those countries who oppose the war in the Security Council now accept a new reality, that it is over, that the coalition won, and that it is time to find a way to lift the sanctions and get more money into the post-war reconstruction effort.
As for Hans Blix, however, thanks but no thanks was the flat response here at the White House. Ari Fleischer, the President's spokesman, noting that the United States and its military partners won the war. He says they will now win the disarmament.
They have hired some former weapons inspectors to help them, but Ari Fleischer saying that the United States, at least at this point, sees no role at all for Hans Blix and the U.N. Inspections teams.
Ari Fleischer also quite critical of Hans Blix. In a BBC interview, the chief weapons inspector said that he received shabby, and in some cases fabricated, intelligence from the United States and Great Britain when his inspectors were in on the ground in Iraq. Ari Fleischer saying today he doesn't quite understand why Hans Blix would be criticizing the United States just now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ARI FLEISCHER, WHITE HOUSE SPOKESMAN: I think it's unfortunate if Hans Blix would in any way criticize the United States at this juncture. The United States is working with the Iraqis to build a new country for them. And I think that would just be unfortunate if his position today is to criticize the United States.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: So there will be a new debate in the Security Council over lifting the sanctions. The White House says it expects some difficulties but looks forward to that discussion.
They also say here, though, that if part of the equation is sending Hans Blix and his team back into Iraq for inspections, the reaction of this White House will be no, thank you, we'll do it ourselves -- Lou.
DOBBS: John, Blix appearing for all the world to look like a petulant U.N. bureaucrat about a month to go before his retirement.
On the issue of France, in some negotiation required for whatever is to come about in the lifting of these sanctions, the Security Council after the way in which the United States, Britain, and the coalition have performed in Iraq, it's not as fertile a negotiating ground for the French or the Russians for that matter, is it?
KING: Well, Lou, they expect some debates over the language. Where does the money go if you sell more oil? Who holds the money for reconstruction? How much power does the United States have in awarding the contracts for reconstruction? But they also believe here at the White House that there is a new political reality and that France gets it, Germany gets it. There's still a question as to how fast the Russians will move.
The President is about a month away from going to the G-8 meeting. That meeting is in France. He will be with President Chirac. He will be with Chancellor Schroeder. He will see President Putin. The White House believes all of those countries want to find a way to turn a page so when they get to that meeting, they are talking about working together, not forgetting the past, but talking about working together, not revisiting all these bitter fights.
So they believe, at least by then, much of this should be worked out
DOBBS: Moving ahead in positive terms. John, thank you very much. John King, our senior White House correspondent.
More details tonight on the large team of specialists that the United States is sending to Iraq in the search for weapons of mass destruction. The Iraqi Survey Group, as it's called, will also be looking for evidence of war crimes and links between terrorist groups and the former regime of Saddam Hussein. Pentagon correspondent Barbara Star with a report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): So far, U.S. troops haven't found any evidence of the weapons that led the Bush administration into war with Iraq.
BRIG. GEN. VINCENT E. BROOKS, CENTCOM SPOKESMAN: We've not found any weaponized chemicals, biological agents, or any nuclear devices at this point.
STARR: So this man, Major General Keith Dayton, is on his way to Baghdad to become the chief investigator, not for the United Nations, but for the Bush administration. Dayton is the head of human intelligence operations for the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, the DIA.
Now, he is leading the Iraq Survey Group, 1500 intelligence analysts, weapons specialists, and linguists that are setting up shop in Baghdad. Their job -- to look not only for evidence of weapons of mass destruction, including missiles, but also links to terrorist activity, evidence of war crimes, and to follow any illicit money trails.
The job is now seen as so huge the federal government is tapping private industry to help. Kellogg, Brown & Root, and Raytheon have already been approached, Pentagon officials say, to provide technical experts. And more than 30 former U.N. weapons inspectors are also being asked to join the effort.
The U.N. is still hoping to have a role for its inspectors, but the White House is opposed.
FLEICSHER: The President is looking forward, not backward, and we will reassess the framework designed to disarm the Iraqi regime, given the new facts on the ground and the fact that the Iraqi regime that created the environment for the inspectors previously to go in no longer exists.
STARR: Team members will do more than just visit potential weapons sites. They will piece together reports from interrogations with recently captured regime leaders, including Saddam Hussein's former prime minister, Muhammad Hamza Zubaydi. The group will also investigate computer hard drives and documents. Cash rewards will be offered to those Iraqis who do provide useful information.
(on camera): Analysts are already looking into allegations that Iraq destroyed some weapons just before the war began. But so far, there is no proof about what happened to the weapons that the U.S. said Iraq had.
Barbara Starr, CNN, the Pentagon.
(END VIDEOTAPE) DOBBS: Coalition forces have found more than 800 suicide bomb vests in Iraq so far. Some of those vests contain metal ball bearings to make them even more lethal. Central Command says it remains concerned about the potential of suicide attacks against U.S. forces.
Soldiers have also recovered more than $600 million in $100 bills from a storage room in a Baghdad house. The apparently freshly minted currency may have belonged to members of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party.
France and Germany are still trying to find a role in the world after opposing the war against Saddam Hussein. Now they plan to meet with Belgium in Luxembourg next week to discuss the creation of a European defense union. The meeting threatens to widen the split between Germany and France and other NATO members. Kitty Pilgrim reports.
(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): So-called "Old Europe" is at it again. France, Germany, Belgium, and Luxembourg are having a summit to talk about defense of Europe outside of NATO, without the United States or Britain, two of the strongest players and biggest spenders in NATO.
JULIANNE SMITH, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Right now, the U.S. definitely spends more on defense than any of the other countries in Europe. What's interesting about this meeting, though, on the 29th is that the U.K., which does spend a considerable amount on defense will not be included in the meeting.
PILGRIM: NATO's 19 members suffered a serious rift when debating action against Iraq. Britain, Italy, Spain, Denmark, and many eastern European countries backed the United States' call for military action.
But the four governments of France, Germany, Belgium, and Luxembourg, spearheaded the effort to block military action in Iraq. Now, they also blocked a NATO defense of Turkey just before the war.
President Bush had his first telephone conversation with the French president last week after two months of frosty silence. But the upcoming meeting does very little to mend the rift.
Another irritant -- French President Jacques Chirac also met Russian President Putin and Germany's Gerhard Schroeder in St. Petersberg on April 11 in a mini-summit to discuss their strategy going forward.
France recently upped its military budget by 25 percent, but Germany, in an economic slump, may find it hard to convince the public it needs to spend more.
DR. CHARLES KUPCHAN, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: They are still miles away, politically and economically, from taking the steps that are necessary to have a serious fighting force. It's going to be hard for the EU to come up with a serious defense capability without British participation because the British have serious military assets.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: This is not the first time Europe has tried to come up with a European defense effort apart from NATO. Previous efforts have failed. And the issue always comes down to money. Talk is cheap. Defense is not -- Lou.
DOBBS: The motivation here?
PILGRIM: They've certainly seen the split, and they'd like to regain power, and they're trying to reconvene a...
DOBBS: They can't do it within NATO so, they want to create their own?
PILGRIM: It looks like that. It's a good case of sour grapes, I think.
DOBBS: And somewhat bizarre. Kitty, thanks. Kitty Pilgrim.
Coming up next here, the percentage of people with SARS virus who've died from the disease continues to rise. Peter Viles will have the latest on the mysterious disease.
Also, the United States is set to begin talks with one of the countries that President Bush calls "part of the axis of evil". Tonight we will examine, in conjunction with "Economist" magazine, North Korea's nuclear threat in our special report.
And former house speaker Newt Gingrich is in the news with a scathing criticism of the State Department and Secretary of State Colin Powell. The White House steps to the defense of the secretary of state. David Ensor will have that story for us.
All of that and a great deal more still ahead. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Public health officials in Asia today took new steps to prevent the spread of SARS virus, which has sickened almost 4,000 people worldwide. However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention today acknowledged much of the disease remains a mystery. Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER VILES, CNNfn CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Twelve more deaths globally from SARS, the death rate inching higher. And a sobering admission from the CDC. Despite an unprecedented global effort, there is still no treatment for the SARS virus.
DR. JULIE GERBERDING, DIRECTOR, CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL: Right now, we don't have any scientific evidence to suggest that any form of specific treatment for SARS is effective. There were initial reports primarily from Asia that seemed to indicate patients might do better if they'd receive rivovirin and steroids, but in retrospect, that was very anecdotal information.
VILES: Another unknown at the CDC, there's not enough research yet to rule out reports from China that the SARS virus is mutating. The only strategy globally -- to isolate the sick and those exposed to them and hope they recover.
Officials in Singapore shut down a huge fruit market linked to eight cases of SARS. Twelve hundred people associated with the market quarantined.
In China, Tuesday brought 42 new cases, six more deaths. The disease has now spread to poorer provinces in the west and north. In Hong Kong, a few hopeful signs. Schools reopened after being closed for three weeks. The spread of the disease there has slowed somewhat and is now below the global average, though officials in Hong Kong admit SARS is, quote, "going to be with us for some time."
And one encouraging statistic -- though there is no known treatment, nearly 2,000 people have now recovered from SARS, including 65 in Canada.
DR. PAUL GULLY, CANADIAN HEALTH MINISTRY: We will have to learn to live with this and find the appropriate public health management strategies which can enable Canadians to -- Canada to exist as a country but, at the same time, to control it as far as possible.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: Updating the numbers globally now, there are now 3947 cases of SARS. The spread of the disease tonight holding steady at about 22 percent over the past week. Two hundred twenty-nine people have died. And the death rate, again, is inching higher tonight at 5.8 percent -- Lou.
DOBBS: And it's worth noting that when SARS first broke out, the death rate was just about 3.8 percent. Many doctors hoping -- and scientists -- that that rate could stay around 4 percent. But this is definitely moving higher.
VILES: It has moved steadily higher, and the CDC said today they would not be surprised to see it continue to move higher, not necessarily because of any bad news, just because as they continue to define the disease more narrowly, they take people who are sick and say, well, this people didn't really have SARS. The number of sick people decreases, but the number of deaths continue to rise.
DOBBS: Giving you a realistic picture of the mortality rate.
VILES: A more realistic picture of the mortality rate, yes.
DOBBS: This -- the issue of mutation, which is every -- everyone's greatest fear, that this virus will mutate quickly. Early reports from China suggesting that that is precisely what is happening. VILES: Right. The CDC for its part has mapped -- I've seen two maps of it. The maps are not identically the same, but they don't know enough to say that's a mutation. It could...
DOBBS: You're talking about in the United States?
DOBBS: Yes. It could be a mistake in the mapping. It's a very small area. So, asked that question today, the CDC said we just don't know whether we've made a mistake in our mapping or if there is a small mutation or what the mutation possibilities here are.
DOBBS: OK. Peter, as always, great work. Thank you.
We'll be on this network doing more on SARS. Tune in tonight to CNN for a special report hosted by Paula Zahn. She'll report on the rapid spread of this virus and the impact the fear of the disease is having around the world.
Also, how the medical community is reacting and what experts now know about the SARS virus. Tonight at 8:30 p.m. Eastern right here on CNN.
Still ahead, North Korea says it's going ahead with its nuclear program on the eve of negotiations with China and the United States. We will examine tonight the threat that North Korea poses. A special joint report with "The Economist" magazine coming up.
Also, we'll be joined by former national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski.
And also ahead, the White House defending a member of the President's cabinet after he was sharply criticized. The former house speaker Newt Gingrich. David Ensor will have the story on Newt Gingrich's criticism of the State Department and Colin Powell.
And more than a million Shiite Muslims today celebrated their freedom in Iraq with rituals that haven't been possible in a quarter of a century. That and more still ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: In Iraq today, more than a million Shi'ite Muslims gathered in Karbala as part of a religious Pilgrimage long banned under the regime of Saddam Hussein. They gathered at the holy city shrine chanting, slapping their chests, even cutting themselves in symbolic acts and literal acts of self-flagellation. The pilgrimage is in honor of the ancient Islamic martyr, Imam Hussein.
Former house speaker, Newt Gingrich, today blasted the State Department and Secretary of State, Colin Powell. Gingrich called for bold, dramatic change at the department after what he describes as a diplomatic failure leading up to the war in Iraq. National Security Correspondent, David Ensor reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) DAVID ENSOR, NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was a broadside against Colin Powell and his State Department from a well-known conservative with ties to the Pentagon.
NEWT GINGRICH, FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER: The State Department remained ineffective and incoherent.
ENSOR: There was sharp criticism on Iraq from former house speaker, Newt Gingrich, a member of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Advisory Board. Powell, he said, should not be planning to reward Syria with a visit.
GINGRICH: The concept of the American Secretary of State going to Damascus to meet with a terrorist-supporting, secret police- wielding dictator, is ludicrous.
ENSOR: But Powell is going to Damascus, his defenders responded, because the boss told him to.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: As you know, Secretary Powell will be going to visit with the Syrians.
GINGRICH: The State Department invention of a quartet for Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations defies everything the United States has learned about France, Russia, and the United Nations.
ENSOR: But again, say Powell defenders, you may not like the idea of including Russia, Europe, and the U.N. in a quartet on the Middle East with the U.S., but the President does.
ROBERT OAKLEY, FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: To accuse Powell of being disloyal to the President or freelancing is just totally outrageous.
ENSOR: Gingrich also said the State Department has been dragging its feet on fixing the roads in Afghanistan and should not be trusted to rebuild Iraq.
GINGRICH: As of two weeks ago, not one mile of road had been paved in Afghanistan.
RICHARD BOUCHER, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: Everybody knows you can't pave roads in Afghanistan. You can't put down asphalt in Afghanistan in the winter-time.
ENSOR: Is the former speaker speaking for others in the administration? Perhaps for conservatives at the Pentagon with his criticisms of Powell and his department? Not for the President, said the spokesman.
FLEISCHER: Secretary Powell is an able, able diplomat.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ENSOR: With Gingrich taking return fire, those who might be expected to agree with him at the Pentagon and elsewhere in this town took cover today. But with the U.S. facing some tough diplomatic challenges on Iraq and other matters, watch for more policy skirmishes yet to come -- Lou.
DOBBS: David, the timing of this is interesting, irrespective of the merits or lack of merits concerning Gingrich's charges. Any suggestion as to why now?
ENSOR: I think he wants to put a few markers down. There is a fair amount of debate in this town now about how to proceed with Iraq, how long to stay there, how much attention to focus on it. There are a lot of debates going on.
And it just seems as if the conservatives would like to put some markers down, certainly including the former speaker.
DOBBS: OK. David Ensor, our national security correspondent, reporting tonight from Washington. Thank you.
When we continue, we begin our special series, "The Challenge of Change, the new Korea". Tonight the North Korean nuclear threat. We will have a special report in conjunction with "The Economist" magazine.
Then, former national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, will be my guest.
Also tonight, a new era in the Middle East. We'll take a look at how the U.S. victory in Iraq could help effect positive change in the region. I'll be joined by Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern studies at Sarah Laurence, Richard Murphy, former ambassador to Syria.
And new reasons to stay in your car when you're visiting the motor city. We'll tell you why it can be dangerous to step out in Detroit.
That and a great deal more still ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(NEWSBREAK)
DOBBS: A senior U.S. Diplomat today arrived in Beijing to begin talks with North Korea and China about North Korea's nuclear program. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly made no comments as he arrived in Beijing. The United States wants North Korea to close down, of course, its nuclear program before it can produce any more nuclear weapons.
The nuclear standoff began last October, when North Korea admitted it has a covert program to make enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. It is not clear how advanced the program is. On Friday the North Korean government said, quote, "We are successfully reprocessing more than 8,000 spent fuel rods at the final phase." But yesterday the North Korean government issued a new translation that said, quote, "We are successfully going forward to process more than 8,000 spent fuel rods." That ambiguity giving room to the Bush administration to at least go ahead with initial talks. Tonight in conjunction with "The Economist," magazine we assess the threat of North Korea in the challenge of change, the new Korea.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHUNG MIN LEE, PROFESSOR YONSEI UNIVERSITY: North Korea has the fifth largest standing army in the world, 1.1 million men in arms. It has over 700 ballistic missiles that targets everything in South Korea and parts of Japan. Very large stockpile of bio and chemical weapons agents. And plus on top of this she may already have one or two nuclear warheads.
DOBBS: And soon North Korea could have even more. Recently, North Korea restarted its plutonium-based nuclear energy reactor at Pyongyang, which can be used to create the fuel for nuclear bombs. And in the past week North Korea has acknowledged it's moving ahead with plans to reprocess that fuel.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And whether it's in six months or it's in 12 months, they will have the 30 kilograms of plutonium, they will have another enough material for five or six weapons.
DOBBS: Robert Gallucci, secretary of state in the Clinton administration, helped draft the 1994 framework agreement in which North Korea pledged to freeze and eventually dismantle its nuclear weapons program. We now know the North cheated on that agreement for years. But now the question remains, where to draw the so-called red line, the limit that would provoke a serious military response. The Bush administration chose this week to move ahead and enter into talks with China and North Korea on the nuclear issue.
BILL EMMOTT, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, "THE ECONOMIST": It may be that we now have to start contemplating a situation when we accept a North Korea with nuclear weapons, and decide that the red line has to be in their trade of nuclear material.
ROBERT GALLUCCI, DEAN GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: The problem with that red line is that five kilograms of plutonium would amount to essentially the size of a baseball. So the question is would you be sure baseball was being transferred to a terrorist group?
DOBBS: The North has already passed on significant ballistic missile technology to Iran, Pakistan, and Syria. President Bush has insisted that North Korea agree to abandon its weapons program and accept reliable, intrusive inspections. North Korea's leadership is both isolated and enigmatic. Kim Jong Il has a taste for French wine and American movies. His eccentricities, however, in no way diminish the very real danger he and his government present to the region.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Whatever you can say about Kim Jong Il, you would also need to add he's intelligent, he's rational.
DOBBS: Rational enough, it seems, to retract his initial demand for one-on-one talks with the United States. Some interpret North Korea's withdrawal of that demand to be the result of the quick U.S.- led military victory over Saddam Hussein and his regime. That demonstration of U.S. resolve and power may have influenced China to finally get involved in the North Korean nuclear issue as well. China's influence and pressure may be necessary to curtail Kim Jong Il's nuclear ambitions.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If China really wants to see a North Korea without nuclear weapons, China has to do its part and to cut off, for example even temporarily, its oil shipments and grain shipments to North Korea.
DOBBS: For a short time last month China did cut off oil shipments to North Korea. Without Chinese support North Korea cannot afford to maintain its huge military force and apparatus. The negotiations, to be led by Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly, will be complex, difficult, and the outcome anything but certain. Diplomacy is limited. In large measure, because the United States is disadvantaged militarily on the Korean Peninsula. While the United States would obliterate North Korea in a full-blown conflict, North Korea would without question have initial and devastating success against South Korea. Despite a 600,000 man South Korean army equipped with the best U.S. weaponry and 37,000 U.S. troops, most experts say North Korea could level Seoul in hours, not days, in the event of an attack.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It would be likely to be carried out at the cost of tens of thousands of South Korean lives. And that just may be unacceptable.
YANG SUNG CHOI, FORMER AMB. REPUBLIC OF KOREA: We cannot make any rash judgment. For Koreans this is a life and death matter. And we have to decide ultimately about our future and our fate.
DOBBS: The South Korean ambassador could have added that the decision about the future and fate of South Korea is at this moment as much in the hands of Kim Jong Il as it is in the hands of President Roh. South Korea's government, led by a president who's been in office less than six months, now faces the most daunting challenge to its security in half a century.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Tomorrow we continue our special report in conjunction with "The Economist" magazine, "The Challenge of Change: The New Korea."
Joining me now to discuss the threat of North Korea and how the United States should respond is former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, a counselor at tje Center for Strategic and International Studies. Also professor of American foreign policy at the school of advanced international studies the Johns Hopkins University. Good to have you with us.
ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, FMR. NATL. SECURITY ADVISER: Nice to be with you.
DOBBS: Let's begin with the most obvious question, is there any, in your judgment, great likelihood of success in these talks? BRZEZINSKI: No. Certainly not initially. At some point if we want to have some sort of regional arrangement we'll have to involve the Japanese, and certainly the South Koreans have to be involved because they have an enormous stake in this. The Chinese at this stage are really being intermediaries. They're providing facilities. But these are essentially bilateral talks pretending to be trilateral talks with the Chinese giving us their umbrella so to speak.
DOBBS: And the last time, in 1994, that that was attempted, which led to agreements from which North Korea stated it would not proceed with nuclear weapons manufacturing, they didn't work out.
What is the leverage that the United States has in this instance with North Korea?
BRZEZINSKI: Well, the leverage, obviously has to be both negative and positive. The negative leverage is the threat, for example, of a regional boycott, of eventually even a regional embargo on North Korea and, as a last resort, even military action. But to achieve that you have to have a great deal of political consensus, and that's very difficult to manufacture. The positive inducements, of course, are some form of financial, economic assistance. But that may not be enough at this stage to get the North Koreans to roll back what they're already doing. They may be willing to slow down or to stop, but to have them really dismantle what they have been doing is going to take a lot of pressure.
DOBBS: And there are those who might be somewhat confused that there would be these, as you describe them, disguised bilateral talks between North Korea and the United States without the participation of the principal power in the region, that is, China, and certainly without the representatives of the government of the nation, whose national security the United States is trying to protect, that is, South Korea.
What possible positive result can come out of that?
BRZEZINSKI: Well, I would assume that these talks are preliminary, and in a sense we're feeling them out, they're feeling us out. At some point if this is to be a serious negotiation, we'll have to involve the Japanese and the South Koreans. After all, if there is to be pressure, it has to have a collective base. If there are to be incentives, we have to provide them. But my guess is that the North Koreans will ask for too much in the way of incentives unless there are credible threats. And as I said, these credible threats require a regional point of departure.
DOBBS: And regional point of departure means what in the case of specifically of China and Japan?
BRZEZINSKI: It means their involvement, their support. The same is true of the South Koreans. And the South Koreans are very uneasy about a policy of confrontation, of genuine pressure. So in effect, in practical sense we are left essentially with positive incentives. And these may not be enough to satisfy the North Korean expectations. DOBBS: Not enough to satisfy them and the outcome is then what?
BRZEZINSKI: Probably in the short run, essentially, continued talks while they go ahead with the production and procurement of nuclear weapons. And these will change the strategic equation because if they have won now they can only use it essentially defensively. They couldn't use it offensively because they would have nothing left and it may not even work. But once they have several, then they are in a much better position to exercise choice, even to exert blackmail.
DOBBS: And that blackmail now directed toward the United States, yet the principal -- the principal power in the region, China, would -- would seemingly, at least, have the most to lose, would have its national security most at risk here. Why the reticence, in your judgment, for the Chinese to participate straight up, head on in talks with North Korea?
BRZEZINSKI: I think they are beginning gradually to be involved. My hope is that we can draw them into a more intensified and genuinely constructive strategic engagement.
At this stage they don't really want to be involved because their position on our presence in the region, on the implications of all of this for Japan, is still not very clear.
Last but not least, they're increasingly preoccupied with their domestic difficulty. That should, however, induce them to take a more constructive stand because their economy could be affected by what is going on right now with SARS.
DOBBS: And what is clear now, would you not say, is that it is a very risky business and a very difficult process that the United States has embarked upon?
BRZEZINSKI: It's much more serious than the so-called struggle with the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which haven't yet been turned up.
North Korea represents a genuine security problem and a potential very serious security threat.
DOBBS: Zbigniew Brzezinski, thank you for being with us.
BRZEINSKI: Thank you.
DOBBS: Coming up next, the road to a peaceful Middle East. How the U.S. victory in Iraq could change the political landscape of the region for the better. Middle east expert Fawaz Gerges of Sarah Lawrence College will be here. With him, former ambassador to Syria, Richard Murphy, to discuss the likely prospects for that region
Then, we told you about a controversial multibillion-dollar U.S. government contract that could well be awarded to a French-German company. Bill tucker will have an update on the latest in the bidding on the Yucca Mountain project.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: The rapid coalition victory in Iraq has opened a new window of opportunity for the peace process in the Middle East. And here now to talk about the possibilities of that and the Bush effect in the region is Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle East studies, international affairs at Sarah Lawrence College, Richard Murphy former ambassador to Syria, senior fellow in Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Gentlemen, thank you very much for being with us. Let me begin with first Iraq. You have to be impressed with what was accomplished. Now we are seeing some demonstrations, whether it be the Shia in various groups within Iraq. Is this moving ahead in a positive form to you, ambassador?
RICHARD MURPHY, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: Well, I think we had to know that there were forces, very complex forces, political dynamic in Iraq which would get stirred up by the war and that there's so much dust in the air I don't think anyone can predict exactly how it's going to go. When they asked -- when they praised us for liberating them, they said in the next breath, "and now thank you, just go."
Well, we're not going to just go. So how we maneuver through these waters the next few months is going to be very difficult.
DOBBS: Your thoughts?
FAWAZ GERGES, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: I think the question is how would you translate this military victory into concrete political currency? How do you reconstruct Iraqi state and society? How will you use this momentum now to really try to help Iraqis to rebuild their lives?
And I think the ambassador put his finger on a very important question. The internal balance of power has shifted dramatically, Lou, in favor of the what I call the religiously oriented segments in Iraq. And there is a great deal of now to build what I call intracommunal, intraethnic, intrareligious alliances and coalition to counterbalance the religiously oriented segments, not just among the Shias but also among the Sunnis.
DOBBS: OK. You're taking that as a starting point. You used the word rebuilding the state of Iraq. The state of Iraq for almost three decades has meant Saddam Hussein's regime. Rebuilding Iraq, perhaps it's a misnomer. Are we talking about really building Iraq, creating a new government? Because returning to the state that preceded Saddam Hussein is not an option, either, is it, ambassador?
MURPHY: I think it's -- no. It's not a matter of returning to that state, God forbid. But there is a tradition of strong central government. There is a tradition of a very talented bureaucracy. They need a new direction. They -- the top level will be removed. But below that, in almost all of the ministries, there are very talented professionals, very dedicated, and it's not a matter of building from nothing. It's not an Afghanistan situation.
DOBBS: Hardly, with its wealth. It's extraordinary.
GERGES: I mean, let's remember, we talk about the Shias, Lou, as the Shias really act like a crowd. On the contrary.
DOBBS: I'm sorry? Say that again.
GERGES: The Shias do not act like a crowd. The Shias are not only divided along ethnic and religious lines but also along ideology and class. There's a big segment, urbanized, secular, Shia elements. And the question is how do you invest in this particular segment? How do you build intracommunal, coalition among the Shias and the Sunnis and the Kurds? How do you really recreate the secular tradition in Iraq?
DOBBS: And it's fair to say that the government, the U.S. government, has already indicated it will not be a strong central government as we might think typically in the region but rather a federal government, in which there will be strong representation from throughout.
Let's turn to the region itself. We went in, and Fawaz in particular, you and I talked about this along with a host of seemingly other concerned experts on the region, that there would be an explosion in the Arab street, that there would be great destabilization. It just simply has not happened. Is this indicative that there is an opportunity here for the positive change that the Bush administration seeks?
GERGES: Lou, I think in the aftermath of our victory in Iraq I think there's a limited window, limited window of opportunity for the Bush administration to peacefully transform the Middle East landscape. Limited opportunity.
What do you do with your military victory? How do you use, how do you really translate this military victory into concrete political capital?
DOBBS: What's the answer?
GERGES: Absolutely. And here I would argue three points.
Publish the roadmap, peace settlement without any modification or qualification. Don't just pressure the Syrians and the Palestinians. Pressure also Israeli prime minister to show restraint and to test whether he's genuine about negotiating with the Palestinians. And promise that any real genuine reforms by Arab states will be rewarded. Use carrots, not just sticks. Because threats on their own will not deliver. There is a window of opportunity. Will this administration use...
DOBBS: Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, Fawaz. And ambassador, please, your thoughts on this, too. But I -- please. You talk about sticks here. There's only one government that has been threatened by this administration. That was Syria. And it's also been made very clear that there's no plan to go to war.
We provide a great deal of aid to Egypt. We have tremendous trade relationships. There's a lot of carrots moving around in the region.
MURPHY: Well, yes. The -- the Syrians, I think, have heard our words as pretty threatening. But the fact is there's been a great military victory and now with this window, call it a limited window, there are things that can be done very quickly with Syria. I think we can assure that there are no Iraqi political refugees in the country. They'll be either moved out or sent back to Iraq. Probably the former.
We can assure that it's not worth Syria's while to be stockpiling Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. That story was out...
DOBBS: Or their own.
MURPHY: Or their -- well, now, look, we've heard for 20 years about the chemical warfare capabilities of Syria. It probably has one. But I don't think that words from us are going to shut that down. What can shut it down is what Fawaz is talking about, getting maybe a regional discussion going on, a weapons of mass destruction free zone in the Middle East.
GERGES: I think the question is how to you use the new momentum, Lou, in order to really move the peace process forward? How do you explore this strategic moment, this historical moment, in order -- because if you sit on this victory...
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: But the Bush administration has already laid out a roadmap, and the conditions are very specific. And the Palestinian authority has to make a decision in they are caught now in a conundrum and cannot resolve it. That has to be a condition...
(CROSSTALK)
GERGES: Publish the roadmap. There is a road. Why not publish the roadmap?
DOBBS: No, no. What is the role of the Palestinians here?
GERGES: There is, Lou, there is a real power struggle taking place among Palestinians.
(CROSSTALK)
GERGES: Among the Arafat camp and the reformist camp. And truly -- and of course, we know that...
MURPHY: I think -- well I'm willing to put down a moderate amount of money that in the next 24, 48 hours there will be a new cabinet. I think that this last-minute skirmishing, Arafat is a great brinksman, and that'll fall into place and Abu Mazen will have a cabinet to leave.
DOBBS: Gentlemen, we're going to be back in 24 to 48 hours with you, if I may ask you to do so, to first check on how well your wallet's doing on your bet, Ambassador. And to discuss further what needs to be done within the region, both economically and politically. Fawaz Gerges, Ambassador Murphy, thank you very much.
MURPHY: Thank you.
DOBBS: Still ahead here, we'll have "Your Thoughts" on excessive executive compensation, amongst other things.
And an $8 1/2 billion contract for work on American soil could go to a French-German company. That's upset a number of you. Bill Tucker will have an update on the story that we first brought to you last week. And also, a way to make your voice heard in that controversy.
Exploring Mars. Striking new pictures of the red planet. All of that and more still ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Spectacular new pictures of Mars reveal the powerful influence of wind on that planet. The images taken by the Mars Global Surveyor show numerous different sand formations on the planet, all of them indicative of wind erosion. Scientists say the odd shapes are caused by wind constantly battering the landscape, blowing sand in one direction. These pictures also show windstorms brewing and changing with the seasons on the red planet.
Since our report last week about Yucca Mountain, a number of you have e-mailed us asking for an update on the status of the nuclear waste contracts. Many people also calling the Department of Energy, asking about those contracts. Bill Tucker has an update for us now -- Bill.
BILL TUCKER, CNNfn CORRESPONDENT: Thank you, Lou. Let's quickly review the bidding process. There are three consortiums that are vying for this contract to finish the nuclear waste disposal project. Here is a look at who they are.
The first two companies on this list have American partners. The third company is the company that caught our attention and the attention of many of the MONEYLINE viewers as well.
Cogema/Framatome ANP. That is a French-German coalition. And they came to our attention and they caught yours as well. The contract has not yet been awarded, but MONEYLINE was told that the original deadline for rewarding the contract was April the 15th. Obviously, that's been delayed, and we are now told that a decision is expected within the next couple of weeks.
If you're interested in the outcome of the contract or you want to get involved, here are some phone numbers and some contacts. Department of Energy is a 1-800 number, 800-225-6972. The Nevada's Governor's Agency for Nuclear Projects also has an 800 number and a Web site as well. Or you can also call Senator Harry Reid's office. He's the Democratic senator from Nevada at 202-224-3542 -- Lou.
DOBBS: Bill, thank you for the update.
Well, coming up next, we'll take a look at some of "Your Thoughts" on CEO compensation and the United Nations. Right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A quick look now at some of "Your Thoughts." Liza Maakstad of Dallas, Texas said, "Please continue to say what needs to be said. I appreciate your kind of journalism, the kind backed by common sense and facts instead of only opinions. Don't compromise your journalistic integrity. Continue to accept criticism with such grace." We'll sure try.
And here's a test. Joe Sosa of San Diego said, "Your ridiculing smirk at the Democratic candidates is just another example of your right-wing, slanted bias. You and your show become more than a P.R. agency for the Bush administration. I guess a couple of White House dinners is all it takes for you to sell out your journalistic integrity."
Eric Mitchinson from Ontario, Canada wrote about excessive executive compensation. "The greed of America's CEOs is repugnant and immoral if not criminal. These thieves are no different than the corrupt dictators who bleed their countries dry while their country men struggle to survive. They should be treated the same way." I couldn't agree more.
And finally, Bernard Most of Scarsdale, New York wrote, "I originally watched your program just for the days financial news. Now I find myself looking forward to your views about the world's news. Your comments are right on the money. Particularly about the U.N. I have a suggestion for a name change for MONEYLINE to `Lou Dobbs on the Money' which says it all." Thank you for the suggestion. We'll certainly take it under consideration.
Send us your thoughts. moneyline@cnn.com. "LIVE FROM THE HEADLINES" with Paula Zahn begins right now.
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