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American Morning

Iran's Influence

Aired April 24, 2003 - 08:36   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: There was a message from the White House to Iran: stay out of Iraq, they say. The White House warning Shiite leaders in Tehran to steer clear of Iraq's post-war politics. Iraqi Shiites have been rejoicing in the newfound freedom this week, emotional pilgrimages to Karbala and Nejef drawing more than a million people this week alone. The religious observance had been banned for the most part during Saddam Hussein's rule. More now on this and the connection of the Iranian influence possibly in Iraq.
Fareed Zakaria, editor of "Newsweek International," also author of the new book, "The Future of Freedom."

Good morning to you. Nice to see you.

What are you to make right now of Iran's influence? How critical, how significant is it in your estimation?

FAREED ZAKARIA, AUTHOR, "THE FUTURE OF FREEDOM": I think the Iranians are going to try to exploit the situation. There are obviously factions within Iraq that are pro-Iranian, or to put it better, backed and funded by Iran.

But fundamentally, Iraq has always been a unified state. The Iraqi Shia, remember, fought Iranians in the long Iran-Iraq war, so I think there is very little danger of an Iranian public regime, but there is a lot of danger that the Iranians will try to fund various factions and make mischief.

HEMMER: Take that just a step further, because part of the point of confusion here is with the Arabs in Iraq and the Persians in Iran. Is there any relationship that you can see that would develop between the two countries?

ZAKARIA: No, because as you say, the Arabs speak Arabic, the Iranians speak Farsi, different cultures, but there is a danger that various Shiite leaders in Iraq looking for funding, looking for organization, will turn to Iran and say, give us some money so that we can win elections in Iraq.

HEMMER: What do you think about the power vacuum right now that's being filled largely by a number of people in Iraq who are essentially electing themselves to posts. And what do you think right now about the U.S. in terms of a timetable to try to exert some influence in Iraq before that power vacuum is filled with a lot of substance from Iraqis?

ZAKARIA: You know, Bill, what we often forget about Saddam Hussein's Iraq it was a secular regime. It was a failed secular regime, suppressed all political dissent, except the mosques. It couldn't really suppress the mosques. So when the regime crumbled into the void steps the only group that has influence organization, megaphones, and those of religious leaders. So what the United States is going to have to contend with is in the short-term, the first people that is going to come into this void are religious leaders. That's all the more reason to stay with it, build the institutions of democracy before you turn over power to any of these...

HEMMER: Some of these demonstrations we're seeing right now, Jay Garner said earlier in the week that he believes there is evidence that suggests some of this is being staged, perhaps not the religious ceremonies, but some of the other demos we have watched. Do you think there is a point to be taken there?

ZAKARIA: Absolutely. I think we have to remember when we're looking at what's going on in Iraq right now, with all of the stuff, we're looking at small numbers of people. There were 200 or 300 people around the statue of Saddam Hussein when it was toppled, there were 200 or 300 people protesting against the United States. We really don't know what the vast Iraqi people think, and that's all the more reason to stay the course and not be bothered by momentary television images one way or the other.

HEMMER: And, finally, Ahmad Chalabi is the guy a lot of people in the U.S. are hanging their hat to lead this country. He is a Shiite, not necessarily religious, like we have seen in other parts of the country. His involvement, his future will be embraced how by the Iraqi people?

ZAKARIA: That's the $64 million question. What I would say is we should not polarize Chalabi one way or the other. I think he's a good man. I've never met him, but he's a decent man who stands for a new liberal Democratic Iraq. The key is he's going to have to win support internally within Iraq. We can't do it for him.

HEMMER: "The Future of Freedom" is your new book. Fareed Zakaria, Thanks for sharing with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired April 24, 2003 - 08:36   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: There was a message from the White House to Iran: stay out of Iraq, they say. The White House warning Shiite leaders in Tehran to steer clear of Iraq's post-war politics. Iraqi Shiites have been rejoicing in the newfound freedom this week, emotional pilgrimages to Karbala and Nejef drawing more than a million people this week alone. The religious observance had been banned for the most part during Saddam Hussein's rule. More now on this and the connection of the Iranian influence possibly in Iraq.
Fareed Zakaria, editor of "Newsweek International," also author of the new book, "The Future of Freedom."

Good morning to you. Nice to see you.

What are you to make right now of Iran's influence? How critical, how significant is it in your estimation?

FAREED ZAKARIA, AUTHOR, "THE FUTURE OF FREEDOM": I think the Iranians are going to try to exploit the situation. There are obviously factions within Iraq that are pro-Iranian, or to put it better, backed and funded by Iran.

But fundamentally, Iraq has always been a unified state. The Iraqi Shia, remember, fought Iranians in the long Iran-Iraq war, so I think there is very little danger of an Iranian public regime, but there is a lot of danger that the Iranians will try to fund various factions and make mischief.

HEMMER: Take that just a step further, because part of the point of confusion here is with the Arabs in Iraq and the Persians in Iran. Is there any relationship that you can see that would develop between the two countries?

ZAKARIA: No, because as you say, the Arabs speak Arabic, the Iranians speak Farsi, different cultures, but there is a danger that various Shiite leaders in Iraq looking for funding, looking for organization, will turn to Iran and say, give us some money so that we can win elections in Iraq.

HEMMER: What do you think about the power vacuum right now that's being filled largely by a number of people in Iraq who are essentially electing themselves to posts. And what do you think right now about the U.S. in terms of a timetable to try to exert some influence in Iraq before that power vacuum is filled with a lot of substance from Iraqis?

ZAKARIA: You know, Bill, what we often forget about Saddam Hussein's Iraq it was a secular regime. It was a failed secular regime, suppressed all political dissent, except the mosques. It couldn't really suppress the mosques. So when the regime crumbled into the void steps the only group that has influence organization, megaphones, and those of religious leaders. So what the United States is going to have to contend with is in the short-term, the first people that is going to come into this void are religious leaders. That's all the more reason to stay with it, build the institutions of democracy before you turn over power to any of these...

HEMMER: Some of these demonstrations we're seeing right now, Jay Garner said earlier in the week that he believes there is evidence that suggests some of this is being staged, perhaps not the religious ceremonies, but some of the other demos we have watched. Do you think there is a point to be taken there?

ZAKARIA: Absolutely. I think we have to remember when we're looking at what's going on in Iraq right now, with all of the stuff, we're looking at small numbers of people. There were 200 or 300 people around the statue of Saddam Hussein when it was toppled, there were 200 or 300 people protesting against the United States. We really don't know what the vast Iraqi people think, and that's all the more reason to stay the course and not be bothered by momentary television images one way or the other.

HEMMER: And, finally, Ahmad Chalabi is the guy a lot of people in the U.S. are hanging their hat to lead this country. He is a Shiite, not necessarily religious, like we have seen in other parts of the country. His involvement, his future will be embraced how by the Iraqi people?

ZAKARIA: That's the $64 million question. What I would say is we should not polarize Chalabi one way or the other. I think he's a good man. I've never met him, but he's a decent man who stands for a new liberal Democratic Iraq. The key is he's going to have to win support internally within Iraq. We can't do it for him.

HEMMER: "The Future of Freedom" is your new book. Fareed Zakaria, Thanks for sharing with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com