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CNN Live Today

Pyongyang Says It Has A Nuclear Bomb

Aired April 25, 2003 - 10:07   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Now we want to move on to the latest revelation to stoke nuclear concerns on the Korean Peninsula. Senior Bush administration sources tell CNN that North Korea has admitted to having at least one nuclear bomb.
James Lilley is a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea. He is now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and researches China, Taiwan and Korea.

Mr. Ambassador, good morning. Thank you for being with us.

JAMES LILLEY, FMR. U.S. AMB. TO S. KOREA: Good morning, Daryn.

KAGAN: Were you shocked maybe not by the statement, not by the fact of it, but the fact that North Korea would fess up to this?

LILLEY: Well, they in affect did to Kelly last October on their highly enriched uranium project. And now they see their nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip and as a weapon to keep anybody from attacking them. So I think it makes sense. I think this is a sensible move from their point of view.

KAGAN: Why -- why is that?

LILLEY: Well, because I say, it's a bargaining chip. It's a threatening move and especially a move to, they say, transfer, that means proliferate to the Middle East and that, of course, is the real nightmare, they will get these in the hands of terrorists. And we've got to take remedial action on that. For instance we ought to have a naval interdiction, or perhaps get our Chinese and Russian friends to expect the aircraft, so we can bottle up any attempt they have to proliferate these weapons. And that is the immediate danger.

KAGAN: But we heard President Bush yesterday use the term blackmail. It's this type of language that people of at the State Department like Secretary Powell have avoided. It seems like language is very key in this crisis and it tends to ratchet up the tension and the stakes as well.

LILLEY: I think that's a mistake. I don't think President Bush's language ratchets it up at all. If you read the North Korean propaganda, they pore out invective on us 10,000 words a minute and we have one remark and it ratchets it up. I would dismiss that. That is not a factor.

KAGAN: I want to go back to the military options that you were talking about. This is not Iraq and the military options are not the same.

LILLEY: You're absolutely right. The military options are not there because the North Koreans could take out Seoul, probably within the first week, killing millions of people, and also the South Korean government, who -- it's their peninsula, have said absolutely not. And we cannot do it without their approval. So those are two very strong reasons military option is not really realistic.

KAGAN: And then the other thing you see on the table is economic sanctions, some talking about making them so strong that would make the North Korean regime collapse. And yet that's also something in that neighborhood don't want to see. They don't want a huge flood of refugees coming into South Korea, at least the South Koreans don't. And the Chinese don't want to see a united Korea.

LILLEY: Well I think that's true but that's a very stark scenario.

Economic leverage is given by pinching off oil supplies, by cutting back on food. It's not by banning this whole export of food to them. You've got to use it as leverage to get them to make moves that are favorable on their nuclear weapons program. You don't just cut them off. No, absolutely not.

You -- you build it up. You make it project aid. You make it essential to their survival. Then they have to make the key choice between guns and butter. And my sense is, if we do it right with China and South Korea and Japan cooperating, North Korea doesn't have a chance.

KAGAN: And so what's the very next step? Those talks did not seem -- not to go so as well. Certainly didn't last very long.

LILLEY: Well I think they lasted the three days. You know, we had the first day, the second day, the third day. We went back and talked.

This is expected. They were going to put on a tantrum. No question about it. They were going to make threats, blackmail, the whole thing. Then you move on to the real world, and set down and say what do you want that we have and what do we have that you want? And then you make a deal. But I they made it quite clear, Colin Powell, that this is not going to be a bribery extortion deal like they had in 1990s. This is going to be a tougher, and a realistic deal with transparency and reciprocity built into it.

KAGAN: Ambassador James Lilley, thanks for your insight and imput today, sir. Always a pleasure to have you on.

LILLEY: My pleasure.

KAGAN: Very good.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired April 25, 2003 - 10:07   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Now we want to move on to the latest revelation to stoke nuclear concerns on the Korean Peninsula. Senior Bush administration sources tell CNN that North Korea has admitted to having at least one nuclear bomb.
James Lilley is a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea. He is now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and researches China, Taiwan and Korea.

Mr. Ambassador, good morning. Thank you for being with us.

JAMES LILLEY, FMR. U.S. AMB. TO S. KOREA: Good morning, Daryn.

KAGAN: Were you shocked maybe not by the statement, not by the fact of it, but the fact that North Korea would fess up to this?

LILLEY: Well, they in affect did to Kelly last October on their highly enriched uranium project. And now they see their nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip and as a weapon to keep anybody from attacking them. So I think it makes sense. I think this is a sensible move from their point of view.

KAGAN: Why -- why is that?

LILLEY: Well, because I say, it's a bargaining chip. It's a threatening move and especially a move to, they say, transfer, that means proliferate to the Middle East and that, of course, is the real nightmare, they will get these in the hands of terrorists. And we've got to take remedial action on that. For instance we ought to have a naval interdiction, or perhaps get our Chinese and Russian friends to expect the aircraft, so we can bottle up any attempt they have to proliferate these weapons. And that is the immediate danger.

KAGAN: But we heard President Bush yesterday use the term blackmail. It's this type of language that people of at the State Department like Secretary Powell have avoided. It seems like language is very key in this crisis and it tends to ratchet up the tension and the stakes as well.

LILLEY: I think that's a mistake. I don't think President Bush's language ratchets it up at all. If you read the North Korean propaganda, they pore out invective on us 10,000 words a minute and we have one remark and it ratchets it up. I would dismiss that. That is not a factor.

KAGAN: I want to go back to the military options that you were talking about. This is not Iraq and the military options are not the same.

LILLEY: You're absolutely right. The military options are not there because the North Koreans could take out Seoul, probably within the first week, killing millions of people, and also the South Korean government, who -- it's their peninsula, have said absolutely not. And we cannot do it without their approval. So those are two very strong reasons military option is not really realistic.

KAGAN: And then the other thing you see on the table is economic sanctions, some talking about making them so strong that would make the North Korean regime collapse. And yet that's also something in that neighborhood don't want to see. They don't want a huge flood of refugees coming into South Korea, at least the South Koreans don't. And the Chinese don't want to see a united Korea.

LILLEY: Well I think that's true but that's a very stark scenario.

Economic leverage is given by pinching off oil supplies, by cutting back on food. It's not by banning this whole export of food to them. You've got to use it as leverage to get them to make moves that are favorable on their nuclear weapons program. You don't just cut them off. No, absolutely not.

You -- you build it up. You make it project aid. You make it essential to their survival. Then they have to make the key choice between guns and butter. And my sense is, if we do it right with China and South Korea and Japan cooperating, North Korea doesn't have a chance.

KAGAN: And so what's the very next step? Those talks did not seem -- not to go so as well. Certainly didn't last very long.

LILLEY: Well I think they lasted the three days. You know, we had the first day, the second day, the third day. We went back and talked.

This is expected. They were going to put on a tantrum. No question about it. They were going to make threats, blackmail, the whole thing. Then you move on to the real world, and set down and say what do you want that we have and what do we have that you want? And then you make a deal. But I they made it quite clear, Colin Powell, that this is not going to be a bribery extortion deal like they had in 1990s. This is going to be a tougher, and a realistic deal with transparency and reciprocity built into it.

KAGAN: Ambassador James Lilley, thanks for your insight and imput today, sir. Always a pleasure to have you on.

LILLEY: My pleasure.

KAGAN: Very good.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com