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American Morning

Terror in Tehran?

Aired May 27, 2003 - 07:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: The Bush administration is keeping pressure on Iran. Apparently not satisfied with Iran's responses to questions about al Qaeda and nuclear weapons, the White House is considering a tougher policy towards Tehran. But is it the right approach?
Geneive Abdo has written a book, along with her husband, about the struggle for power in Iran. It is called, "Answering Only to God." And she joins us now this morning from Washington.

Good morning to you, Geneive. I know...

GENEIVE ABDO, JOURNALIST: Good morning.

COLLINS: Good morning. I know you and your husband lived in Iran for three years, the first American journalists to do so after the revolution. What do you want to tell the American people about the Iranian people and their politics?

ABDO: Well, I think that it's a huge miscalculation to think that by pressuring the Iranians or threatening any sort of military action that that's actually going to work in the interest of U.S. policies. Most people who have ever spent a lot of time in Iran believe that the best approach is through some sort of dialogue with the Iranian government. And as we see from the statements that Iranian officials have made in the last few days, they say that they won't be intimidated.

And I think that the Iranians generally respond, and will respond much more in the U.S. interest, if there is some sort of ongoing dialogue about the issues that the U.S. government is concerned about, such as their nuclear weapons program and their support for terrorist groups.

COLLINS: Well, speaking of, now to al Qaeda. The Iranian ambassador to the U.N. says if al Qaeda is operating in Iran it's without the knowledge of the government there. Is that believable to you?

ABDO: Well, of course, as we know at this stage, there are many factions within the Iranian government, and it is highly possible that the more conservative hard-lined factions within the government have given permission for al Qaeda operatives to remain in Iran. But I think that, according to the official statements from the government in last few days, they say that these operatives are now in custody, although they have not mentioned or given the identities of who these people are. But I think it is entirely possible that one arm of the state doesn't know that there are al Qaeda people in Iran.

COLLINS: Well, I'm curious about this as well. The U.S. has said it would like to see the Iranian government toppled from within. Are there enough reformists to make that sort of thing happen?

ABDO: No, there are not. And again, I think that this is a real serious misreading of domestic politics in Iran. There is, as we know, the reform movement has been crushed, it's in retreat, and there is no broad-based social movement that, in fact, could carry out any sort of internal rebellion. The most prominent dissidents in Iran are the students, and they are very few in numbers. When the last demonstrations were held, only 4,000 to 5,000 students came out on the streets to demonstrate.

And the other people, of course, who are prominent dissidents in Iran are journalists. And the journalists who were part of a very lively press movement in the late '90s, the papers have closed and many of these journalists are now in jail. So, really, there is no broad-based social movement that could carry out such a rebellion.

COLLINS: Well, with regard to the nuclear capability of Iran, you have said that taking action against Iran will essentially shut down a movement towards change in that country, even though we are saying now that we don't see a whole lot of that going on. How should the U.S. proceed, then, especially because Iranian officials have said the topic is nonnegotiable?

ABDO: Well, there are many exchanges that could be made in any sort of dialogue with the Iranians. For example, if the United States asked the Iranians to allow surprise inspections of their nuclear facilities and required them to sign additional protocols that are required, this could be one way of monitoring their nuclear weapons program. Another request, of course, could be that the Iranian government stops supporting Hezbollah, and I think the latest estimate is that the Iranian government gives something to the effect of $100 million a year to Hezbollah.

Now, the Iranians could then ask the Americans to release their assets that were frozen after the 1979 Islamic revolution and to lift trade sanctions.

COLLINS: Yes.

ABDO: So, these are some of the exchanges that could be made if any sort of serious dialogue was under way.

COLLINS: Certainly a lot of work to be done; hopefully some options as well. Geneive Abdo, "Answering Only to God," her book this morning. Thank you so much.

ABDO: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.







Aired May 27, 2003 - 07:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: The Bush administration is keeping pressure on Iran. Apparently not satisfied with Iran's responses to questions about al Qaeda and nuclear weapons, the White House is considering a tougher policy towards Tehran. But is it the right approach?
Geneive Abdo has written a book, along with her husband, about the struggle for power in Iran. It is called, "Answering Only to God." And she joins us now this morning from Washington.

Good morning to you, Geneive. I know...

GENEIVE ABDO, JOURNALIST: Good morning.

COLLINS: Good morning. I know you and your husband lived in Iran for three years, the first American journalists to do so after the revolution. What do you want to tell the American people about the Iranian people and their politics?

ABDO: Well, I think that it's a huge miscalculation to think that by pressuring the Iranians or threatening any sort of military action that that's actually going to work in the interest of U.S. policies. Most people who have ever spent a lot of time in Iran believe that the best approach is through some sort of dialogue with the Iranian government. And as we see from the statements that Iranian officials have made in the last few days, they say that they won't be intimidated.

And I think that the Iranians generally respond, and will respond much more in the U.S. interest, if there is some sort of ongoing dialogue about the issues that the U.S. government is concerned about, such as their nuclear weapons program and their support for terrorist groups.

COLLINS: Well, speaking of, now to al Qaeda. The Iranian ambassador to the U.N. says if al Qaeda is operating in Iran it's without the knowledge of the government there. Is that believable to you?

ABDO: Well, of course, as we know at this stage, there are many factions within the Iranian government, and it is highly possible that the more conservative hard-lined factions within the government have given permission for al Qaeda operatives to remain in Iran. But I think that, according to the official statements from the government in last few days, they say that these operatives are now in custody, although they have not mentioned or given the identities of who these people are. But I think it is entirely possible that one arm of the state doesn't know that there are al Qaeda people in Iran.

COLLINS: Well, I'm curious about this as well. The U.S. has said it would like to see the Iranian government toppled from within. Are there enough reformists to make that sort of thing happen?

ABDO: No, there are not. And again, I think that this is a real serious misreading of domestic politics in Iran. There is, as we know, the reform movement has been crushed, it's in retreat, and there is no broad-based social movement that, in fact, could carry out any sort of internal rebellion. The most prominent dissidents in Iran are the students, and they are very few in numbers. When the last demonstrations were held, only 4,000 to 5,000 students came out on the streets to demonstrate.

And the other people, of course, who are prominent dissidents in Iran are journalists. And the journalists who were part of a very lively press movement in the late '90s, the papers have closed and many of these journalists are now in jail. So, really, there is no broad-based social movement that could carry out such a rebellion.

COLLINS: Well, with regard to the nuclear capability of Iran, you have said that taking action against Iran will essentially shut down a movement towards change in that country, even though we are saying now that we don't see a whole lot of that going on. How should the U.S. proceed, then, especially because Iranian officials have said the topic is nonnegotiable?

ABDO: Well, there are many exchanges that could be made in any sort of dialogue with the Iranians. For example, if the United States asked the Iranians to allow surprise inspections of their nuclear facilities and required them to sign additional protocols that are required, this could be one way of monitoring their nuclear weapons program. Another request, of course, could be that the Iranian government stops supporting Hezbollah, and I think the latest estimate is that the Iranian government gives something to the effect of $100 million a year to Hezbollah.

Now, the Iranians could then ask the Americans to release their assets that were frozen after the 1979 Islamic revolution and to lift trade sanctions.

COLLINS: Yes.

ABDO: So, these are some of the exchanges that could be made if any sort of serious dialogue was under way.

COLLINS: Certainly a lot of work to be done; hopefully some options as well. Geneive Abdo, "Answering Only to God," her book this morning. Thank you so much.

ABDO: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.