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CNN LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE
Bush Begins Overseas Tour; U.S. Considers Tougher Policy Toward Iran; Markets Close With Powerful Rally
Aired May 30, 2003 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, everyone.
Moving forward tonight, President Bush begins an overseas tour that emphasizes the dramatic shift in U.S. global alliances since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Our senior White House correspondent John King will report from Poland.
Focus Iran, the United States considers a much tougher policy toward Iran, at issue Iran's nuclear program, terrorism, and interference in Iraq.
And, our "Editor's Circle" tonight, the markets close with a powerful rally, the third consecutive month of gains, the first time that's happened in a year and a half. We'll be joined by Steve Forbes of "Forbes" magazine, Stephen Shepard of "BusinessWeek," Rik Kirkland of "Fortune" magazine.
Out top story tonight, President Bush arrived in Poland at the beginning of a six nation tour of Europe and the Middle East. The White House says it's time to look to the future after the war against Saddam Hussein.
Senior White House correspondent John King joins us from Krakow, Poland -- John.
JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the president says he's not here in Europe for a confrontation. He says it's time to move on, put the bitterness of the Iraq debate behind him, but just the fact that the president is here in Poland first reinforces a message from this White House.
And, the president himself said it tonight in an interview broadcast on Polish television. He said the United States will remember its friends and stand by its friends.
Poland sent a modest number of troops to stand with the United States and its coalition allies in Iraq. Poland has received quite a bit of criticism within Europe because of that decision, especially from the French President Jacques Chirac.
In that Polish television interview, Mr. Bush said he was here to look to the future but, as he put it, he also said the time for "harsh lectures" is over.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm also going to remind the countries of Europe that we must work together. We don't need the divides between us. We need to work together to achieve big objectives, which is to fight terror, to fight global poverty, to fight AIDS and to promote freedom.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Now, Mr. Bush will have a sober beginning to his day tomorrow here in Poland. He will go to Auschwitz, the Nazi death camp. More than one and a half million Jews killed as part of the Holocaust. Mr. Bush will visit that camp and he says one of the messages he will convey after that tour is that it is proof that the United States and its allies must act immediately when confronted with evil.
Mr. Bush believes the lesson of the Iraq war is that the allies were divided. It took longer to reach a consensus and then, of course, the United States went to war without the backing of the Security Council.
So, Lou, Mr. Bush will see President Putin of Russia, President Chirac of France, Chancellor Schroeder of Germany on this trip, the three men who fought him the most fiercely when it came to Iraq. He says he is looking forward but his top aides also say moving on doesn't mean this president is about to forget -- Lou.
DOBBS: John, thank you very much, John King our Senior White House Correspondent with the president tonight in Krakow, Poland.
In this country, the Department of Homeland Security today lowered the national terror alert status to elevated from high, the move from orange down to yellow prompted by a decline in intelligence pointing to the threat of an imminent attack. The orange alert started ten days ago that after suicide bombings in both Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
For the artists among you, by the way, that means we are back to a primary color. Red and yellow combined make orange. You get to yellow by reducing a threat or by simply taking the red out of the color orange.
On a more serious note, there is a new terror warning tonight for Americans who are in the Middle East. The U.S. Embassy in Israel said it's received credible reports of plans to kidnap U.S. citizens in Gaza. The embassy again advised Americans to postpone travel to Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza.
At least four million Americans live overseas and now many are taking extra precautions to protect themselves from terrorists. Kitty Pilgrim has the story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Home sweet home looks better than ever. The Commerce Department says overseas travel is down four percent this year. The U.S. State Department recommends avoiding 30 countries, much of the Middle East including the West Bank and Gaza, huge portions of Africa, Asia, pretty much a good chunk of the world. At least four million Americans live overseas. A fraction have had problems like the apartment complex bombing in Saudi Arabia last month.
JUDITH BARNETT, PA CONSULTING GROUP: It's a community that has been safe for decades. It's an important community to the American economy as well as to the Saudi economy, and I think that if this isn't a wakeup call I don't know what will be.
PILGRIM: Even resort vacations are riskier. There is an increased worry of bombing of so-called soft targets like the nightclub in Bali or the hotel in Mombasa, and the current warning on Kenya points out aircraft could be targeted by terrorists with shoulder-mounted rockets. As if that weren't enough, the State Department now lists SARS on its list of current travel warnings.
ANDREA SOKES, TARVEL INDUSTRY ASSN. OF AMER.: That's apparent when you look at just the air travel numbers, the number of flights that have been canceled to Asia, to China, specifically to Hong Kong, places like that. Yes, it's down quite a bit.
PILGRIM: According to the U.N. International Labor Organization, U.S. flights overseas have dropped between 30 to 40 percent in April from year ago levels and the traffic to Asia dropped by 25 percent since December because of SARS.
Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam are expected to lose a third of their travel and tourism jobs. China will lose possible one percentage point of economic growth.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PILGRIM: Now, are Americans stay in the light of this, and the answer is yes. In fact, the Travel Industry Association says planned vacations in the United States are expected to jump two and a half percent this summer -- Lou.
DOBBS: What is the effect here? What kind of vacations are people planning in this country?
PILGRIM: The early research shows that they're doing two to three day vacations and about 80 percent are by car.
DOBBS: Eighty percent by car?
PILGRIM: By car domestically.
DOBBS: All right, this is a marked changed. Kitty, thanks very much, Kitty Pilgrim.
Well, the United States is focusing on the threat now from Iran as well as past behavior of the Iranian government. Today, Iran denied accusations that al Qaeda terrorists in Iran played a role in the recent suicide attacks in Saudi Arabia. Thirty-four people, including eight Americans, were killed in those attacks.
The suicide bombers targeted three housing complexes in the Saudi capital city of Riyadh. A senior defense official recently told CNN that intercepted communications suggest al Qaeda operatives in Iran may have organized the bombings.
Iran has also rejected U.S. claims it has a secret nuclear weapons program. Today the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei said inspectors have not yet completed their work in Iran.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MOHAMED ELBARADEI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, IAEA: We are focusing right now on trying to understand fully all aspects of Iran's nuclear program and make sure that all aspects of that program has been declared to us and that it is under international verification.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: A U.S. district court judge today said Iran is to blame for the terrorist attack on a Marine barracks in Lebanon 20 years ago. Two hundred forty Americans were killed in that attack. The judge called the bombing the most deadly state sponsored terrorist attack against U.S. citizens before September 11. The judge said the radical Islamist group Hezbollah, assisted by the Iranian government, carried out the attack.
The general leading the search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction today said he believes there is credible evidence that Iraq had such weapons but the commander of U.S. Marines in Iraq, Lieutenant General James Conway, said he's surprised that no biological or chemical weapons have so far been found.
Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre joins me now -- Jamie.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, U.S. commanders before the war were given very strong intelligence indicating the Republican Guard likely had chemical and biological weapons, in fact that they would probably use them.
Now that none of those weapons have been found more than two months later senior commanders are somewhat puzzled including as you said, the Lieutenant General James Conway who's the Marine Corps 1st Marine Expeditionary Unit commander who spoke to Pentagon reporters today by video teleconference.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LT. GEN. JAMES CONWAY, 1ST MARINE EXPEDITIONARY FORCE COMMANDER: It was a surprise to me then. It remains a surprise to me now that we have not uncovered weapons as you say in some of the forward disbursement sites. Again, believe me it's not for lack of trying. We've been through virtually every ammunition supply point between the Kuwaiti border and Baghdad but they're simply not there. (END VIDEO CLIP)
MCINTYRE: Today, the Pentagon announced the dispatch of new 1,300-member survey teams to intensify the hunt for weapons of mass destruction made up of experts from the United States, Great Britain and Australia. They will be focusing on some of the documents and other evidence that might lead them to places that would be more fruitful in the search for weapons of mass destruction.
But today, the Pentagon still refused to concede there has been any shortcoming in the intelligence about the weapons of mass destruction before the war.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAJ. GEN. KEITH DAYTON, DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY: Well, I'm one of those who thought that intelligence was pretty credible, okay. I thought it was credible. I still do and I think that we may get lucky. We may not. We may find out three months from now that there was a very elaborate deception program going on that resulted in destruction of stuff.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCINTYRE: Now, in New York this week Defense Secretary Rumsfeld suggested that perhaps Iraq had destroyed its weapons before the war even began. Two days later in a radio interview, he seemed to be again suggested that the weapons were likely there but simply well hidden.
Although he did speculate that these two mobile laboratories, mobile biological/chemical plants that were found on trucks, might suggest that Iraq had a sort of just in time delivery policy in which case they would not have had large stockpiles of banned agents as the U.S. once believed.
But again, Lou, they say that the search is going to continue. They've got hundreds of places they still need to look at and hundreds of thousands of documents to review -- Lou.
DOBBS: Lots of documents, a big country; nonetheless, we are not hearing much from the CIA nor the National Security Agency, two primary intelligence agencies that would have been making these assessments as to the whereabouts of this purported weapons of mass destruction, why not?
MCINTYRE: Well, I think both of those agencies are keeping their powder dry while they're waiting to see what happens. People in this building still are insisting that they believe the intelligence was so overwhelming that they just can't believe it would be that wrong. They're insisting it's just a matter of time and it might be some time before they find the real evidence they're looking for.
DOBBS: The 1,300 members of the additional survey group going over that you reported, Jamie, when do they arrive? What is the expected length of their stay? MCINTYRE: Well, they leave this week and they are -- actually early next week, and they're expected to stay essentially until they give up. The leader of the team said he's going on Monday and he's planning to stay. They say they have a job to do. It's a big job and they expect it to take some time.
DOBBS: Jamie McIntyre, as always, thank you very much, Jamie McIntyre our Senior Pentagon Correspondent.
Still ahead here the deadly SARS virus, why the spread of the disease worldwide is slowing but the death rate is rising.
And, if you think you have a pretty good health care plan wait until you see what members of Congress enjoy. Bill Tucker will be here with that story. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Tonight, foam remains the principal focus of investigators looking into the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster. Foam surrounded the craft's external fuel tank, the same foam that NASA administrators said originally could not have caused the tragedy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RON DITTEMORE, SPACE SHUTTLE PROGRAM MANAGER: Right now it just does not make sense to us that a piece of debris would be the root cause for the loss of Columbia and its crew. There's got to be another reason.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DOBBS: The panel investigating Columbia's breakup test-fired a piece of foam at a model shuttle wing. That foam left a gash on the leading edge 22 inches long. Investigators warn that it's still too soon to say whether the foam directly caused the shuttle tragedy. Columbia disintegrated on reentry into the earth's atmosphere on February 1. All seven astronauts aboard died.
The SARS virus has killed another person in Canada and a top health official there said today he and his colleagues let their guard down. The country's death toll from the virus now stands at 30. Elsewhere in the world, the spread of SARS has dramatically slowed however.
Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A humbling week for Canadian health officials, a new outbreak of the SARS virus and a sobering conclusion the disease is still spreading in Canadian hospitals.
DR. DONALD LOW, MT. SINAI MEDICAL CENTER: I think what we did is just let our guard down and, again, remember we've only had this disease for ten weeks that we've had experience with. This is a new disease and we've learned some lessons. This is a tough lesson to learn but we're still going to beat it.
DR. JAMES YOUNG, ONTARIO COMM. ON PUBLIC SAFETY: It's one of those viruses that even when you gain control it takes one case to start it back up. It does extremely well in hospital settings.
VILES: Because the disease is alive in hospitals, officials are asking Canadians to do their best to stay out of emergency rooms and not to visit hospitals unless absolutely necessary.
Globally, as predicted, the death rate from SARS continues to rise from 4.5 percent in mid-April it has now doubled. But there is some cause for optimism. The rate at which the disease is spreading is slowing.
In late April, the number of SARS cases was growing faster than 30 percent per week, but this week the growth rate has averaged under four percent. But how accurate are those numbers? The biggest progress has been in China and some China watchers simply don't believe Beijing's numbers.
CLAUDIA ROSETT, COLUMNIST, "OPINION JOURNAL": There is no precedent for information coming from the Chinese government to have much integrity at all and there's no way we can actually know if their data is accurate. What we do know is that this is a police state that permits no private press.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VILES: Chinese officials did hold a news briefing earlier today saying: "SARS is starting to be effectively contained." They also denied at the highest levels of the government today that Beijing had ever tried to hide the seriousness of this outbreak in the first place -- Lou.
DOBBS: The Chinese government is now denying it mishandled this outbreak?
VILES: Didn't say they didn't mishandle it. They said they never misled anyone, never withheld the truth. There was a little bit of drama today, this Chinese health official waving a February issue of the "People's Daily" pointing out there was a brief item in that paper discussing a new form of pneumonia. The question is did they alert the rest of the world and make enough efforts, but they say they had a bad information collection system.
DOBBS: And, a number of the people in that collection system were fired weren't they for it?
VILES: Two, the mayor of Beijing and the top health official in the country and that's what international reporters, not Chinese reporters, international reporters brought up, said how can you say this when you cleaned house because the issue was being mishandled? They said well that's not what the problem was. The problem was they didn't have a good system in place. DOBBS: The problem is there seems to be something of an impulse toward a lack of full disclosure still on the part of Beijing. Pete thanks, Peter Viles.
That brings us tonight's poll question: "Which of the following will affect your vacation plan this summer, terrorism threats, the SARS virus, the falling dollar, or none bags are packed?" Cast your vote at cnn.com/moneyline. We'll have the results later in the broadcast.
The results of last night's poll: "Do you believe the federal government should play a larger role in the nation's health care system?" Fifty-four percent of you said yes, 14 percent said no, 32 percent said what health care system.
When we continue, working at peace, the Israeli and Palestinian prime ministers discuss concessions ahead of the historic summit with President Bush. We'll have a live report for you.
And, embracing the rewards of peace, Iraqi Kurds celebrate the new Iraq. Ben Wedeman will report that story when we return. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: In the Middle East today, Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas predicted he will persuade radical Palestinian groups to agree to a cease-fire with Israel in fewer than three weeks. That follows a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and it comes just before their summit with President Bush next week.
Kelly Wallace has the story from Jerusalem -- Kelly.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Lou, this comes as both sides are trying to tout the progress they say they are making in advance of next week's summit with President Bush and after last night's meeting between the Israeli and Palestinian prime ministers.
In an interview tonight, that is where the Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas said he was optimistic he could achieve a comprehensive cease-fire in about three weeks. This would mean convincing all radical Palestinian groups to stop their attacks against Israelis.
Now, to do this Prime Minister Abbas told Mr. Sharon, according to Palestinian sources, that he needs to see the Israelis taking steps to help him convince groups like Hamas to disarm, steps such as freezing settlement activity and ending all Israeli military operations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Now, the Israeli position is that a cease-fire is unacceptable, that the Israelis want to see a full dismantling of groups like Hamas. At the same time, in last night's meeting, we are told, Prime Minister Sharon told Prime Minister Abbas he would take a number of confidence building measures to ease the plight of the Palestinian people, including today lifting the ban on Palestinian access into Israel from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
The Israelis also offering to pull troops out of the center of West Bank towns and the northern Gaza Strip when Palestinians say they are ready to take charge of security in those areas.
While all this is happening, the Israeli public is signaling more and more support for this Mid East road map, which calls for the creation of a Palestinian state by 2005. In a newspaper poll published today, 57 percent of Israelis say they back the creation of a Palestinian state, 38 percent said they were opposed.
Now, behind the scenes a lot of work is being done. You have two high level U.S. envoys in the region right now working with the Israelis and the Palestinians trying to hammer out those statements that will likely be issued next week in Jordan with President Bush -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kelly, thank you very much, Kelly Wallace reporting tonight live from Jerusalem.
When it comes to the search for peace, there has been success in the Kurdish controlled areas of northern Iraq. Kurds there are celebrating their freedom after being liberated by coalition forces.
Ben Wedeman reports from northern Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Kurds have always liked to dance to their own drummer. For 12 years northern Iraq, protected by American and British warplanes, was free of Saddam Hussein's control. Now the north is once more a part of Iraq. Not everyone likes the tune.
(on camera): In this corner of Iraqi Kurdistan there is peace. There is security. There is law and there is order, but there is also growing concern about perennial instability in the rest of the country.
(voice-over): Aware of their own relative good fortune, they look south and worry.
"What the coalition did in the war really was a miracle" soldier Hesham Bagdadi (ph) told me. "But now people complain there's no security, no stability. They need work."
His wife Suwad (ph) is worried about yesterday's dictator. "I would feel much better" she says, "if I were certain Saddam was behind bars."
This Kurdish leader says temporary uncertainly and chaos were inevitable.
JALAL TALABANI, PATRIOTIC UNION OF KURDISTAN: To change a regime which ruled 35 years by iron and fire, the dictatorship, worst kind of dictatorship in the world when this collapsed, surely there will be some results, some consequences which can not be controlled easily.
WEDEMAN: Many do see through the immediate problems of post- Saddam Iraq and relish the changes.
Taxi driver Ibrahim Shali (ph) regularly had to pay Iraqi soldiers huge bribes to stay in business. "Now I can drive anywhere, do anything, and no one bothers me" he says.
And after all, things don't look so bad after a good meal and a few drinks in the company of old friends.
Ben Wedeman, CNN, northern Iraq.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: And that brings us to our "Quote of the Day," a former world leader who recently had some harsh words for countries who cooperated with terrorist states.
"For years, many governments played down the threats of the Islamic revolution, turned a blind eye to international terrorism and accepted the development of weaponry of mass destruction. Indeed, some politicians were happy to go further, collaborating with the self proclaimed enemies of the West for their own short-term gain, but enough about the French," that from former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Coming up here next, middle-class ills and why the answer to this country's health care problems could lie within the U.S. Congress itself.
And, friends of Laci Peterson take matters into their own hands. Scott Peterson's defense attorneys cry foul. We'll have that story and a great deal more still ahead here. Please stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A strange twist tonight in the Laci Peterson murder case. Attorneys for Scott Peterson are now threatening to file charges against some friends of Laci Peterson's family. Those friends entered the Peterson house today and removed several items supposedly belonging to Laci Peterson.
Attorneys for her mother, Sharon Rocha, said she had permission from the district attorney to enter the house. Peterson's attorneys said they had an agreement with prosecutors to keep the home sealed until their investigation was completed. Scott Peterson is charged with the deaths of his wife Laci and their unborn child.
In other news across America tonight, federal agents are investigating a fire that destroyed the historic Moulin Rouge Casino in Las Vegas. The casino was the first integrated gambling spot in the city. It was being renovated when the first occurred.
Talk about bad luck, the Kiss Cam at the Cincinnati Reds baseball game last night caught David Horton (ph) kissing this young lady. Here we go. But one of the 30,000 people in the stands was Horton's parole officer. The young fellow could spend 18 years in prison on drug charges.
An arrest of a different kind this morning in New York when a cargo plane overran the runway at JFK International Airport, the plane stopped in an area called the arrester bed, which is designed to stop planes safely in just such cases.
Just a few hours later a more significant event at JFK, the final flight of the Air France Concorde touched down right after eight o'clock this morning. The Concorde will head back to France tomorrow. It flies into history and into retirement at a museum.
We continue now with our series of special reports on health care in this country and the middle-class. Millions of Americans have no healthcare coverage at all but every member of Congress, of course, does. Tonight, Bill Tucker takes a look at what makes the Congressional healthcare plan so very special.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All those in favor, say aye.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Aye!
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Aye!
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Aye!
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All those opposed, no.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No!
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No!
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No!
BILL TUCKER, CNNfn CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Your representative in the House has it. So does your senator. And even the president has it.
ROBERT MOFFITT, THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Everybody from the mailman to the Congressman is covered in this program.
TUCKER: Roughly 9 million federal employees and their families covered by it. It is the federal employees health benefits program.
But what is it about this plan that causes it to be held up as the gold standard?
Well in form, it's not that different from the plans offered employees at large corporations, except that the government offers even more choices. Federal employees can often choose between 15 and 20 plans.
The federal employees health benefits program lets the federal employees choose their type of doctor coverage, HMO versus preferred provides, or (ph) point of services. Every one has a prescription drug coverage plan generally covering about 80 percent or more of costs. And the cost to the employee are flexible, depending on the coverage they choose.
On a cost comparison basis, the most popular plan with the federal employees is comparable in total costs to a typical private sector family plan. Interestingly, that plan is also the most expensive for employees, costing them more than they would typically pay in the private sector.
But again, cost is decided by the employees and the options they choose, not by what is chosen for them by a bureaucrat.
JOE ANTOS, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INST.: It's a tremendous idea. I've been in the federal employees health benefits program for several decades now. And the idea of being able to choose from among 12 national plans plus, in the Washington area and in many large cities, another half dozen or more local plans. That's more choice than any one else in the country has.
TUCKER: There is broad bipartisanship consensus that the plan works as well as it does because of the way it's run by the Office of Personnel Management, the federal government's H.R. department. OPM oversees the program for 9 million people with a staff of 150.
WALT FRANCIS, ECONOMIST: It's really quite an extraordinary success story, particularly compared to other government-run programs. But, of course, it isn't really government-run in the same way that Medicare, Medicaid and Tricare for the military are run. This is very much let the market play itself out and OPM serves basically an umpire role and a facilitator role, and they just do a great job of it which is why the program's so successful.
TUCKER: It's not your typical government program. Little wonder it is often held up as a model.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCKER: And you haven't heard the last of it. The administration is pegging its Medicare reform to the program, and in addition to the Democratic presidential candidates, Senator John Breaux, a Democrat from Louisiana is working on a plan for universal healthcare coverage that would guarantee individuals access to the plan -- Lou.
DOBBS: Well, that's very exciting, and it's also exciting the Office of Personnel Management -- how many people...
TUCKER: One hundred and fifty people.
DOBBS: In the plan itself?
TUCKER: Nine million people in the plan.
DOBBS: A hundred and fifty people. That is just utterly remarkable.
TUCKER: They choose the plans. They put them out there. The plans that aren't popular die off. You get it when you're in renewal period. And the ones that are popular stay in the system.
DOBBS: Some thing that we don't often say on this broadcast -- good for the government.
TUCKER: You would never hear it from me. I agree. Absolutely.
DOBBS: Bill, thanks a lot. Bill tucker.
A hurricane expert says we are in for a rough season this year. William Gray, a noted hurricane forecaster, is now predicting 14 named storms and at least eight hurricanes will form this year. Gray also says there is an increased chance at least one of those storms will hit this country. Gray's predictions are similar to those of the national Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which were released earlier this month.
Turning now to solar storms and some remarkable pictures. Our sun has produced three major solar flares over the past 48 hours. The three coronal mass ejections, as they're called, sent billions of tons of plasma and charged particles into space. Some of those charged particles will reach our magnetic field around midnight tonight and they could have a major impact, affecting satellite operations and power grids, and if we're very unlucky, perhaps even -- it might affect the pictures on your television screen.
Taking a look now at the national debt tonight, it stands at estimated $6 trillion, $564 billion, an increase in more than $13 billion from last night.
When we continue, our "CEO of the Week. He keeps the company on an even keel in the roughest of economic waters.
And find out what's likely to affect your money and markets. We'll be talking about that and a great deal more with this country's top business editors in our weekly "Editors' Circle" coming up.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A solid rally on Wall Street, stocks scoring their third straight winning month. The Dow Jones Industrials up 139 points. The Nasdaq rose 20.96. The S&P 500 up almost 14 points.
Christine Romans is here with a report on the day, the week, the month, quite a run.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNNfn CORRESPONDENT: Yes, you know, Lou, there's that old Wall Street wisdom sell in May and go away. Any body who followed that wisdom doesn't look very wise in the end, does it? Because it was a pretty decent month.
DOBBS: They lost a real good market.
ROMANS: Absolutely.
For investors, the third month in a row, a marvelous month for the Dow, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, all posting respectable gains. And, Lou, look at the small caps. They sizzled, putting in their best month in three years. The Russell 2000 up 11 percent this month. It's now up 15 percent this year.
Telecoms, tobacco, biotechnology, home builders, the rally broad this month in some widely names. AOL Time Warner up 11 percent, closing this week at a five-month high. Intel up 13 percent. Citigroup up 5 percent.
Really, only a few laggards here. Oil services and chemical stocks, it wasn't all sunshine and roses. Microsoft, Wal-Mart and GE were among the Dow stocks that were lower.
So the spring stock market rally now three months old. Breadth remains strong. Money continues to flow into stock mutual funds, Lou, and less so into bond mutual funds. We'll see if that continues.
DOBBS: That rate on that 10-year note is amazing.
ROMANS: Yes. Absolutely.
DOBBS: What is it -- 3.35 percent?
ROMANS: Yes. Yes. And it got down even a little bit lower than that, so...
DOBBS: And how much was AOL up?
ROMANS: AOL -- double digit percentage gain but how much was it down from the high? That's the really painful question.
DOBBS: Well, you know, I think we should look forward and not back...
ROMANS: OK.
DOBBS: ...on this broadcast.
ROMANS: Sure.
DOBBS; Christine, thanks a lot. Have a great weekend.
ROMANS: You too.
DOBBS: Checking now on the trade deficit -- tonight it is more than $208 million by our very careful calculations.
Tonight's "CEO of the Week" started his career in the boating business three decades ago. Today, he runs the world's largest boating retail, $540 million in sales.
MarineMax's Bill McGill, our "CEO of the Week."
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL MCGILL, CEO & CHAIRMAN, MARINEMAX: Well, I hate to go back to the office today after this ride.
DOBBS (voice-over): Bill McGill is at the helm of Marine Max, a business he built and then took public in 1998.
Today, with 60 locations in 13 states, Marine Max continues to turn in strong results.
MCGILL: The one thing that I've known over the 30 years that I've been in the boating business and that is: people are going to enjoy their boating, they're going to have their boats no matter what we go through.
DOBBS: Two thirds of MarineMax's business comes through referrals or repeat buyers. On average, MarineMax customers come back every three-and-a-half years for an upgrade.
MCGILL: It's where our customers perhaps are starting off with an 18-footer and they get the footitis disease and the next thing you know, they're wanting a 20 or a 22.
DOBBS: And MarineMax has just the cure for footitis, carrying every thing from a 11-foot Boston Whaler to custom made yachts, 150 feet long.
MarineMax's board is independent and when the new guidelines are reached, the company will expense stock options. Right now, the impact is noted in its quarterly reports.
MCGILL: We think that's very important because we want do clarity to our shareholders. We do recognize the dilution effect on our earnings for those stock options.
DOBBS: In the past three years, Marinemax shares have risen more than 20 percent. McGill says he has to prove the company's worth to Wall Street.
MCGILL: We pretty well had to dispel a couple of things. One of them is this cyclicality effect or notion that people believe that the marine industry is going to be a disaster in a downturn, and we have pretty well proven that that's not the case.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
DOBBS: Bill McGill, of Marinemax, our "CEO of the Week." Our congratulations.
Coming up next, our "Thought of the Day," on big media this time.
And we'll have more with our "Editors' Circle" on those issues from Wall Street to Washington. And we'll share some of your thoughts on the health care crisis, and our series of special reports on middle class ills. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: A reminder to vote in our poll tonight. Which of the following will affect your vacation plans this summer? Terrorism threats, the SARS virus, the falling dollar, or none; bags are packed? Cast your vote at cnn.com/moneyline. We'll have the results coming right up.
This week, the new tax cut package became law. The stock market finished its third straight winning month, and joining me now to talk about all of this, the heads of the leading business magazines in this country, "Fortune" magazine this week featuring Smith Barney CEO Sally Krawcheck, asking whether she can save Citi's business, and "Forbes" magazine featuring what they call Silicon Valley's hottest company, Google, and "Businessweek," examining the top 100 small companies on its cover, is the head of Coach, by the way, one of our CEOs of the week.
Joining me now, Steve Forbes, the editor in chief of "Forbes" magazine, Stephen Shepard, the editor in chief of "Businessweek," Rik Kirkland, the managing editor of "Fortune" magazine. Gentlemen, good to have you here.
This is quite a week. Did the market rally because of the tax cut -- I'll start with you, Steve.
STEPHEN SHEPARD, EDITOR IN CHIEF, "BUSINESSWEEK": Sure. The answer is, I think yes. I think it's sinking in that this is a very good tax bill for investors. Whatever you think of the long term, the short term is very positive for investors. The capital gains tax cut to 15 percent is a real sleeper here. Everybody focused on the cut in the dividends tax rate, but the capital gains, I think people are realizing is important.
RIK KIRKLAND, MANAGING EDITOR, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Big vote for the tax cut, but also, just continuing decent economic news. I mean, the bad news is mostly lagging stuff like consumer spending down a little bit. The confidence is up. Business spending seems to be coming back. So there are more signs that this recovery is real.
DOBBS: And durable goods, a couple of...
KIRKLAND: Durable goods.
DOBBS: Well, stubborn negative indicators.
KIRKLAND: Annualized (ph), it's going to be all right.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: Well, seasonally adjusted, we're not seeing the job formation that any of us would like with this economy. What are the prospects? I know the president and Congress have said that this is going to create 1.4 million jobs, or seasonally adjusted, about a million. Will it? STEVE FORBES, "FORBES" MAGAZINE: I think eventually it will, but given what companies have gone through in the last three years, they're going to be very, very reluctant to bring on new expenses, bring on new people until they figure this recovery is for real.
DOBBS: They're (UNINTELLIGIBLE), aren't they?
FORBES: Well, they overdid it; so now they're under doing it. But I think when they realize that this market rally is real, and investors realize what a boon they got in this tax cut, that will start to restore the animal spirits, and I think later this year, early next year, you'll start to see employment numbers look a little better.
SHEPARD: What you're seeing is the downside of the productivity games of the last few years, that companies can do more with less, and so that was a very, very good thing during the boom, but it's hurting employment in the downturn. So when things pick up, we'll have to wait a little bit for employment to follow.
KIRKLAND: Three percent is the magic number. We just need to grow for a sustained time more than 3 percent, otherwise you're not going to get much job creation.
DOBBS: We have got the revision, our first revision up of 1.9 percent of GDP for the first quarter. A little better than most people were talking -- earlier they were talking about a revision in effect downward.
KIRKLAND: That suggests the second half may, in fact, be a little stronger in this sort of cautious 2.5, 3, which would be great.
FORBES: This is one of those situations where confidence is going to follow the economy, follow the market rather than lead it. When people figured, my goodness, there's something positive happening, then I think we're going to see good reactions.
DOBBS: We have seen two strong months of rising consumer confidence. You think that's important even as a lagging indicator?
FORBES: Oh, I think it is. And people I think feel that as long as there's not a disaster looming, like SARS or the Korean peninsula, this thing is going to happen. And investors are going to wake up. Investors have been very slow to respond to that tax bill, even though it's just been signed. It's a huge plus. Knocking that from 15 to 20.
SHEPARD: I think what we're seeing consumer confidence is the gloom was overdone. It was overstated all along. Things didn't get that bad. Unemployment didn't go above 6. We didn't stop growing; 1.9 is not a great number but it's not the end of the world either, and I think people -- there was an overreaction.
KIRKLAND: That said, I hope we sort of fight our way up this year. I hope we don't zoom up too quickly.
(CROSSTALK)
KIRKLAND: ... except for "Businessweek" magazine advertising.
FORBES: I hope that zooms up.
(CROSSTALK)
DOBBS: We're seeing some strong indications that advertising is picking up.
KIRKLAND: In television, Lou.
DOBBS: Well, why would we talk about anything else? Talking about gradualism, hardly anything gradual is -- would be normally the case in the decline of the dollar here. Treasury Secretary John Snow talking the dollar down, in effect. Its import, Rik?
KIRKLAND: Well, I think, you know, as I've said before, I hope Secretary Snow learns a valuable lesson. Enjoy the weaker dollar, just stop talking about it. You don't want a situation like Blumenthal (ph) got into in the late '70s, talking the dollar down, the treasury (ph) secretary. But the truth is the U.S. is benefiting from this weaker dollar, if it doesn't accelerate at this point, and that's why we're going to grow so much faster than the rest of the world, and the rest of the world seems to want that. They don't know how to grow themselves, so the only way they'll get out of this is the U.S. grows again, they can sell some stuff to us, and we cn begin to see some global growth.
SHEPARD: I think the president realized or was told that this has gone a little too far too fast, and he came out today in defense of a strong dollar. So we don't want it to happen too fast.
(CROSSTALK)
FORBES: Part of it too is not so much a weak dollar, is that the euro is becoming too dear. They're making the same mistake the Japanese made a decade ago, having a deflationary policy. We're finally getting monetary policy right. The Europeans are getting it wrong.
DOBBS: Well, we're going to quickly take a break. Talking with the best in the business, the editors of leading business publications in this country, and we're going to when we return talk about one of the most exciting events of the year, and that is the G-8 meeting in which the dollar will be under discussion.
But first, our "Thought of the Day" on the American press. "To the public, the press is not David among Goliaths. It has become one of the Goliaths, big media, a combination of powerful television networks, large magazine groups and newspaper chains that are near- monopolies." That from columnist Thomas Griffith, and it, as you might suspect, will be the subject of our discussion when we return. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) DOBBS: Preliminary results of our poll tonight. The question, which of the following will affect your summer vacation plans? Five percent of you said terrorism, 5 percent said the SARS virus, 54 percent said the falling dollar -- Look out, Europe -- and 36 percent of you said none, your bags are packed, go get them.
More now on our "Editors' Circle" coming up in just a moment, but first we want to take a look at some of "Your Thoughts."
Wanita Williamson of California wrote in to say, Regarding the federal government providing health care coverage, in a democracy it's up to us individuals to take care of our needs. In a dictatorship I would expect the government to pay my medical bills."
Richard DiBenedetto of Washington said, "Lou, the health care crisis in America is at least partly due to past reckless deregulation of the insurance industry and chronic waste, greed and corruption in the medical industry. Insurance companies should not spend millions buying the name of sports stadiums."
On the tax cuts, Bob Gilliland of Michigan wrote to say, "All this tax cut will do is give the companies more money to send our jobs to Mexico so the CEOs and politicians can line their pockets further. One day our children will be crossing the Rio Grande to get the jobs."
And on the scandal at "The New York Times" John Howe of Colorado wrote in to say, "No wonder that less than 40 percent believe that the print media publishes. Where is the clamoring for the heads of the editors? There seems to me to be a fine line between this kind if deliberate, fraudulent reporting and the corporate fraud that we have seen exposed in industry."
Send "Your Thoughts" to us. E-mail us at loudobbs@cnn.com.
And now back to Steve Forbes, Rik Kirkland and Steve Shepard. Gentlemen, let's go to the most exciting event, certainly of the weekend, G-8. Will anything happen?
KIRKLAND: The only (UNINTELLIGIBLE) activity out of the G-8 is going to be the surge in spending in Evian, Franc from the care and feeding of all the journalists sent there to find the only story, which is how chilly is Chirac and Bush's handshake?
No, nothing significant's going to happen out of the G-8.
SHEPARD: The tone matters a lot, whatever the specifics are. If they can somehow look like they're putting disagreements over the Iraq war behind them, and moving on to other important economic issues, then that will be considered great progress.
FORBES: It's probably a good thing they won't have a consensus. And I think the real story's already happened. Bush going to Poland, not Germany or France. That's...
KIRKLAND: And the other news of course is the more important trip is going on in the Middle East. For the first time in a long time I'm actually -- you know, with the Middle East, I always think Mel Brooks had the right advice, hope for the best, expect the worst. But I think we may actually be seeing some really significant progress here.
SHEPARD: I wish I could believe that.
KIRKLAND: Well, like I say, hope for the best.
DOBBS: It seems...
SHEPARD: But don't bet your IRA on it.
FORBES: Don't bet your IRA on it, no.
DOBBS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) our IRAs, our 401(k)s and pensions are somewhat riding on it because there is -- this is a significant initiative. No president has ever taken the initiative to the leaders of the Palestinians and the Israelis directly.
SHEPARD: Well, Clinton did. I mean, he did it with Barak and Arafat. He did it in...
DOBBS: But not in the Middle East. And not with 160...
(CROSSTALK)
KIRKLAND: ... this president was very reluctant to do this for such a long time. But clearly this is part of the post-9/11 post-Iraq change.
FORBES: But it was a smart thing he did, was to let the Palestinians try their uprising, let Arafat play his hand. They let everyone see that has no future.
Now people are in the mood. Something's got to be done.
DOBBS: And as Steve's skepticism reminds us, let's hope the mood lasts.
The mood is going to be somewhat altered Monday when the FCC makes a decision on ownership limits. Does Michael Powell, the chairman of the FCC, have this thing right?
FORBES: If anything -- I'm going against my peers -- but I think he doesn't go far enough. In this day when you have thousands of channels from cable, when you get broadband you're going to have everyone having their own source of information and providing information. These rules are written for an era of 40 years ago. The Internet and cable has blasted that away.
SHEPARD: Now the fun begins.
Look, the fact is most people still get their news from local television stations and a local newspaper. And if those consolidate to a greater degree now, you're going to have less competition, less diversity of viewpoint than more. Even though you're right, in theory there are more outlets than there were before.
(CROSSTALK)
KIRKLAND: Well I'm all for competition, but the reality, I have to just look at local TV news, the reality of local TV news, if you travel around this country, is it's all the same. It's already homogenized. I agree with the folks who worry that Clear Channel consolidating radio stations has made radio less interesting. Local TV is already pretty bad. I mean, I'm not sure we're going to lose much in terms of diversity of opinion and format.
DOBBS: I've got to defend my colleagues in television, network...
KIRKLAND: Well, I didn't say cable.
DOBBS: The fact of the matter is that I've got to disagree with you, which I rarely do, Steve, on any subject. But to me it just seems this -- the diversity issue, the voice issue. Eight companies, eight companies in this country control the predominant media nationally. That's...
FORBES: In terms of getting information out, whether it was on "The New York Times" thing, that was driven by the Internet. What happened with this station and "TIME" magazine a few years ago, that was driven by the Internet.
And when you get real broadband, where you get a couple billion bits per second instead of 50,000, television's going to be on the Internet. And you're going to have thousands of stations. Thousands of alternatives.
DOBBS: I admire your vision of the future.
(CROSSTALK)
FORBES: You guys are an example of it. Look at the sources of news. Used to be three networks. Now it's a bunch of you guys.
KIRKLAND: It's a matter of responding to market pressure for diversity of programming, narrowcasting and so on. That doesn't change.
DOBBS: Steve mentioned "The New York Times," the ongoing investigation, internal investigation. Rick Bragg, a Pulitzer Prize winner resigning. The Jayson Blair debacle, the nonsense around Maureen Dowd and her use of ellipsis inappropriately. I think -- I assume, I'll ask you, it seemed inappropriately.
But "The New York Times" seems to be trying to beat itself to death. I'll tell you personally, I think they made some mistakes. But why don't they just shut up and get on with the business? What do you think? Steve?
SHEPARD: Well, I think that what they're trying to do, and this is a big tradition of this in the media, is when something bad happens get it all out. We saw this at "The Wall Street Journal" with the Foster Winans thing. We saw it at "The Washington Post" with Janet Cooke. That's what they're trying to do. It looks bad, but they got to get it all out.
DOBBS: In your quick view, Rik.
KIRKLAND: I think that "The Times" has a management problem. I think they need to just, as you said, they need to get on to business and try to get the troops, who seem really unhappy and sort of settling scores, and to just try to put this behind them and go on and be a great newspaper.
FORBES: They let their standards fall, and people should bear responsibility for it. CEOS go. Editors should go too.
DOBBS: All right, gentlemen, as always, thank you very much. Steve Shepard, Rik Kirkland and Steve Forbes.
That's it for this evening. Monday we begin our series of special reports on vanishing retirement, a week-long look at why retirement is out of reach for millions of Americans.
For all of us here, we wish you a pleasant weekend. Good night from New York.
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