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CNN Live Today

Message From Saddam?

Aired July 08, 2003 - 11:04   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: For the second time this month, a speaker on an audio tape claiming to be Saddam Hussein is urging Iraqis to attack British and American forces.
CNN Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf joins us. She has more on this story live.

Hello, Jane.

JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Leon.

Well, it isn't the first Saddam Hussein tape, as you know. This one, according to Iraqis who have spent a lot of time listening to his voice, say it does sound like him. The audio quality is very scratchy. But in it, he gives the same message, that Iraqis have to rise up and using underground operations evict the occupiers. He encourages Iraqis to boycott the soldiers, have nothing to do with them, and to further fire upon them.

The chief civil administrator for Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, said he would far prefer that they knew that Saddam was either captured or dead. He said the absence of proof that he's dead makes potential attackers, Saddam loyalists and Fedayeen supporters bolder. He said however, though, that there was no evidence that there was an overriding central command behind the attacks we have seen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PAUL BREMER, U.S. CIVIL ADMIN. FOR IRAQ: There is still no indication of any central command or control of these attacks. These attacks appear to be the work of small groups of men. Usually a squad level operation, They are conducted, however, with considerable professionalism, which is why we are, that plus the information we get from the people we capture, and other information, we are certain these are emanating from people who have military training, Fedayeen Saddam, Revolutionary Guards, members of the former intelligence agencies.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ARRAF: Now, in Iraq is a very wide category of people, since every male above the age of 18 practically does have military training, military service was compulsory. The main thing worrying these people is the belief that these attacks, which will not let up, are not just Saddam loyalists. There are a wide range of people, some of them opposed to Saddam, as they are opposed to the U.S. presence here -- Leon. HARRIS: Thank you very much, Jane. That's a great point you brought up there. I will bring that up with our next guest here. Jane Arraf reporting live from Baghdad.

Now if the speaker on this tape that has been released is indeed Saddam Hussein, he seems to be trying to fuel a guerrilla-style war against U.S. and British troops.

So let's talk about this with Simon Henderson. He is London, and he is the author of "Instant Empire: Saddam Hussein's Ambition for Iraq."

Mr. Simon, I'm sorry, Mr. Anderson, thanks for your time this morning. Let me ask you about the point that Jane Arraf brought up there. Do you read this, this release of this tape and the words said there, do they indicate to you there is some support coming, that it's not just limited to Saddam loyalists inside Iraq?

SIMON HENDERSON, AUTHOR, "INSTANT EMPIRE": I think this must be the great fear, that this -- the fact that tapes keep on popping up, and the fact that attacks are taking place on a fairy regular basis.

And as Mr. Bremer said, they appear to be organized. The great fear is not only are there Saddam loyalists left, but there's perhaps assistance from other Arab countries to this group of loyalists.

HARRIS: Specifically can you say which countries?

HENDERSON: Well, I would guess on an official level, Syria. And I suspect on an unofficial level, because I don't suppose it's government-supported, but fighters from Saudi Arabia, who would leap at the chance to fight against American soldiers. This puts Washington into a particular problem if it is going on, and they have got some proof of it, because if they go public, it makes for great diplomatic morale, with tremendous diplomatic repercussions, but unless they achieve some sort of success on the ground, there's the danger that American forces in Iraq will appear to be on the defensive all the time.

HARRIS: But there are some who were saying, and we are hearing this from the Pentagon quite a bit, there is a refusal there to at least consider bringing more troops there on the ground in Iraq to further solidify the situation there on the ground. And if that does not happen, do you see this guerrilla warfare dragging out, or do you think in the end somehow, some way Saddam Hussein continues to survive as something of a wounded victor here?

HENDERSON: Well, I think this aspect of Saddam, perhaps as a wounded victor, certainly as a manufacturer of poor quality audio tapes. He is a particular irritant. I mean, think about this, the last one came out last Friday, July 4th, your independence day. Today's tape coincides with the arrival of President Bush in Africa on a five-day tour.

President Bush is going to be very upset if he is constantly deflected during his Africa tour to matters of Iraq and having to make mention of this. There are two dates I would signal for what could be further tapes, and if there is a degree of organization, and Saddam or his supporters are trying to make political points. July 14th is Iraq's national day. If we can get past that without a tape emerging, this will show they are not so well organized. And then, July 17th is the anniversary of the 1968 coup de tat in which Saddam and the Baath Party came to power. July is a busy month in Iraq political history, and so it's quite significant for what's happening.

HARRIS: Very interesting. If I read you correctly, you are saying there may be evidence here of some other support from other Arab nations for Saddam Hussein, and this is something the White House will not say publicly and will not acknowledge publicly as an issue.

You also believe Saddam Hussein may be orchestrating the release of these tapes in order to sort of pester President Bush on his trip across Africa?

HENDERSON: Well, yes. I mean, that's what I'm trying to say. I say that as an analyst who can say it without the same degree of evidence that will be required if I was reporting it journalistically.

HARRIS: I understand.

HENDERSON: But, this is a particularly tense time, and I think it is a time when the American government has to go for as much candor as possible, and to play its cards correctly, not only in terms of the politics of staying in Iraq, and establishing a new Iraqi nation, but also in being honest with the American people.

HARRIS: Simon Henderson, if you are correct, we don't have long to wait to find out whether or not that is the plan. We have exactly a week to find out what happens on the 14th. Thank you very much. Hope to talk to you later on down the road about this. Very interesting.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired July 8, 2003 - 11:04   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: For the second time this month, a speaker on an audio tape claiming to be Saddam Hussein is urging Iraqis to attack British and American forces.
CNN Baghdad bureau chief Jane Arraf joins us. She has more on this story live.

Hello, Jane.

JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Leon.

Well, it isn't the first Saddam Hussein tape, as you know. This one, according to Iraqis who have spent a lot of time listening to his voice, say it does sound like him. The audio quality is very scratchy. But in it, he gives the same message, that Iraqis have to rise up and using underground operations evict the occupiers. He encourages Iraqis to boycott the soldiers, have nothing to do with them, and to further fire upon them.

The chief civil administrator for Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, said he would far prefer that they knew that Saddam was either captured or dead. He said the absence of proof that he's dead makes potential attackers, Saddam loyalists and Fedayeen supporters bolder. He said however, though, that there was no evidence that there was an overriding central command behind the attacks we have seen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PAUL BREMER, U.S. CIVIL ADMIN. FOR IRAQ: There is still no indication of any central command or control of these attacks. These attacks appear to be the work of small groups of men. Usually a squad level operation, They are conducted, however, with considerable professionalism, which is why we are, that plus the information we get from the people we capture, and other information, we are certain these are emanating from people who have military training, Fedayeen Saddam, Revolutionary Guards, members of the former intelligence agencies.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ARRAF: Now, in Iraq is a very wide category of people, since every male above the age of 18 practically does have military training, military service was compulsory. The main thing worrying these people is the belief that these attacks, which will not let up, are not just Saddam loyalists. There are a wide range of people, some of them opposed to Saddam, as they are opposed to the U.S. presence here -- Leon. HARRIS: Thank you very much, Jane. That's a great point you brought up there. I will bring that up with our next guest here. Jane Arraf reporting live from Baghdad.

Now if the speaker on this tape that has been released is indeed Saddam Hussein, he seems to be trying to fuel a guerrilla-style war against U.S. and British troops.

So let's talk about this with Simon Henderson. He is London, and he is the author of "Instant Empire: Saddam Hussein's Ambition for Iraq."

Mr. Simon, I'm sorry, Mr. Anderson, thanks for your time this morning. Let me ask you about the point that Jane Arraf brought up there. Do you read this, this release of this tape and the words said there, do they indicate to you there is some support coming, that it's not just limited to Saddam loyalists inside Iraq?

SIMON HENDERSON, AUTHOR, "INSTANT EMPIRE": I think this must be the great fear, that this -- the fact that tapes keep on popping up, and the fact that attacks are taking place on a fairy regular basis.

And as Mr. Bremer said, they appear to be organized. The great fear is not only are there Saddam loyalists left, but there's perhaps assistance from other Arab countries to this group of loyalists.

HARRIS: Specifically can you say which countries?

HENDERSON: Well, I would guess on an official level, Syria. And I suspect on an unofficial level, because I don't suppose it's government-supported, but fighters from Saudi Arabia, who would leap at the chance to fight against American soldiers. This puts Washington into a particular problem if it is going on, and they have got some proof of it, because if they go public, it makes for great diplomatic morale, with tremendous diplomatic repercussions, but unless they achieve some sort of success on the ground, there's the danger that American forces in Iraq will appear to be on the defensive all the time.

HARRIS: But there are some who were saying, and we are hearing this from the Pentagon quite a bit, there is a refusal there to at least consider bringing more troops there on the ground in Iraq to further solidify the situation there on the ground. And if that does not happen, do you see this guerrilla warfare dragging out, or do you think in the end somehow, some way Saddam Hussein continues to survive as something of a wounded victor here?

HENDERSON: Well, I think this aspect of Saddam, perhaps as a wounded victor, certainly as a manufacturer of poor quality audio tapes. He is a particular irritant. I mean, think about this, the last one came out last Friday, July 4th, your independence day. Today's tape coincides with the arrival of President Bush in Africa on a five-day tour.

President Bush is going to be very upset if he is constantly deflected during his Africa tour to matters of Iraq and having to make mention of this. There are two dates I would signal for what could be further tapes, and if there is a degree of organization, and Saddam or his supporters are trying to make political points. July 14th is Iraq's national day. If we can get past that without a tape emerging, this will show they are not so well organized. And then, July 17th is the anniversary of the 1968 coup de tat in which Saddam and the Baath Party came to power. July is a busy month in Iraq political history, and so it's quite significant for what's happening.

HARRIS: Very interesting. If I read you correctly, you are saying there may be evidence here of some other support from other Arab nations for Saddam Hussein, and this is something the White House will not say publicly and will not acknowledge publicly as an issue.

You also believe Saddam Hussein may be orchestrating the release of these tapes in order to sort of pester President Bush on his trip across Africa?

HENDERSON: Well, yes. I mean, that's what I'm trying to say. I say that as an analyst who can say it without the same degree of evidence that will be required if I was reporting it journalistically.

HARRIS: I understand.

HENDERSON: But, this is a particularly tense time, and I think it is a time when the American government has to go for as much candor as possible, and to play its cards correctly, not only in terms of the politics of staying in Iraq, and establishing a new Iraqi nation, but also in being honest with the American people.

HARRIS: Simon Henderson, if you are correct, we don't have long to wait to find out whether or not that is the plan. We have exactly a week to find out what happens on the 14th. Thank you very much. Hope to talk to you later on down the road about this. Very interesting.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com