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Driving Out Davis?

Aired August 04, 2003 - 11:33   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: It's Washington's favorite parlor game during the dull days of August: who's in and who's out. Secretary of State Colin Powell makes good on his vow to serve just one term, as we told you at the top of the show. Who might follow him at the State Department?
let's track down our senior political analyst Bill Schneider, who is in Los Angeles this morning.

Bill, good morning to you.

Bill, can you hear me? Let's see. I can -- Bill can hear us, but I can't hear bill. There you go -- Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: OK.

KAGAN: There you go. You are just so far away, 3,000 miles away in Los Angeles, it took a while. There you go.

Good morning. We were talking about Secretary of State Colin Powell. A lot of folks in Washington saying this is no big surprise. He said he always was going serve just one term. Of course we are jumping the gun a bit here, because President Bush has not been re- elected. But let's say for the sake of conversation in August, President Bush is re-elected, Colin Powell steps down, who are the likely contenders to take the job?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think a lot of people will look at Condoleezza Rice. She is not only the first woman, but the first woman African-American secretary of state. She served well as the president's national security adviser. Don't forget what President Bush said in his news conference about Condoleezza Rice last week, he called her a fabulous person. Unusual word, but he said she's a fabulous woman, terrific, America should be proud of her. A lot of people think, well, why doesn't she move into the big job the way Henry Kissinger did, from national security adviser to secretary of state? That would be very striking.

KAGAN: Now a man who has gotten a lot of publicity over the last couple of months, Paul Wolfowitz. What about him?

SCHNEIDER: Well, he would be very controversial. Trust me, if he was the nominee, there would be a pretty contentious battle for his confirmation in the Senate. If the Senate continues to be controlled by Republicans, and Bush is re-elected as president, there would still be a very contentious battle, because he is regarded as one of the architects of the Iraq war, a war someone who was pushing very hard for that war. A very controversial figure, that would be much more of a fight than Condoleezza Rice.

KAGAN: Since we managed to track you down in Los Angeles, let's talk about the governor Recall election out there. Gray Davis fights back, and he goes to court to do that.

SCHNEIDER: Yes, there are a number of issues. One is, he would like to press the court to allow his name to go on the second ballot, the replacement ballot. He is already on the ballot on the first question where voters vote yes to keep him or no they want him to get out of office. But on the second ballot, where people in California vote for a replacement, his name is not allowed. And some of his supporters say he should be allowed like any other candidate in California to go on the second ballot. If that were to happen, it would be very strange. Because there would be a realistic possibility that a majority of voters would vote to recall Davis on the first question, and then even a small plurality could vote to re-elect him. What would happen then? It would be quite a thing.

KAGAN: Well, the other thing that is interesting, he's asking to push back the election on this to March 2, when the California primary would be, that would be a very interesting day in terms of California politics.

SCHNEIDER: Sure, that would be the presidential primary. And of course the Democrats expect there would be more favorable audience for Gray Davis, because there's only a contest from Democratic side. Bush is unopposed for renomination on the Republican side. So if it were in March, number one, it would be much farther down the line. He would have a long time to make his case. The budget fight -- he just signed a new California budget yesterday, so the budget fight would be long ago and far away and he would have time to recover. And in addition, there would be more Democrats coming out to vote in the presidential contest than there would be in October.

KAGAN: And really quickly, we will have to wait and see whether Gray Davis will be on the other side of the recall ballot, but some very interesting characters jumping into the race already, including an announcement we expect any minute now from "Hustler" publisher Larry Flynt.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. Larry Flynt, who has a reputation as a civil libertarian and a free speech advocate, he is a self-described smut peddler, but he says California is the most liberal state in the country, the most progressive state. He thinks he has a chance. Look, if 90 percent of the voters say they would never in a million years vote for Larry Flynt, but they divide their votes among 20 or 30 candidates, and Larry Flynt gets 10 percent of the vote, he could win -- anybody could win. That's the odd thing about California. And one of the court cases says they want to change the rules and make it tougher to get on the ballot, but it's kind of hard to change the rules in the middle of the game.

KAGAN: Yes, once the game is already well under way, a very high-stakes political game in California.

Bill, thank you very much. SCHNEIDER: All right.

KAGAN: Bill Schneider in Los Angeles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired August 4, 2003 - 11:33   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: It's Washington's favorite parlor game during the dull days of August: who's in and who's out. Secretary of State Colin Powell makes good on his vow to serve just one term, as we told you at the top of the show. Who might follow him at the State Department?
let's track down our senior political analyst Bill Schneider, who is in Los Angeles this morning.

Bill, good morning to you.

Bill, can you hear me? Let's see. I can -- Bill can hear us, but I can't hear bill. There you go -- Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: OK.

KAGAN: There you go. You are just so far away, 3,000 miles away in Los Angeles, it took a while. There you go.

Good morning. We were talking about Secretary of State Colin Powell. A lot of folks in Washington saying this is no big surprise. He said he always was going serve just one term. Of course we are jumping the gun a bit here, because President Bush has not been re- elected. But let's say for the sake of conversation in August, President Bush is re-elected, Colin Powell steps down, who are the likely contenders to take the job?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think a lot of people will look at Condoleezza Rice. She is not only the first woman, but the first woman African-American secretary of state. She served well as the president's national security adviser. Don't forget what President Bush said in his news conference about Condoleezza Rice last week, he called her a fabulous person. Unusual word, but he said she's a fabulous woman, terrific, America should be proud of her. A lot of people think, well, why doesn't she move into the big job the way Henry Kissinger did, from national security adviser to secretary of state? That would be very striking.

KAGAN: Now a man who has gotten a lot of publicity over the last couple of months, Paul Wolfowitz. What about him?

SCHNEIDER: Well, he would be very controversial. Trust me, if he was the nominee, there would be a pretty contentious battle for his confirmation in the Senate. If the Senate continues to be controlled by Republicans, and Bush is re-elected as president, there would still be a very contentious battle, because he is regarded as one of the architects of the Iraq war, a war someone who was pushing very hard for that war. A very controversial figure, that would be much more of a fight than Condoleezza Rice.

KAGAN: Since we managed to track you down in Los Angeles, let's talk about the governor Recall election out there. Gray Davis fights back, and he goes to court to do that.

SCHNEIDER: Yes, there are a number of issues. One is, he would like to press the court to allow his name to go on the second ballot, the replacement ballot. He is already on the ballot on the first question where voters vote yes to keep him or no they want him to get out of office. But on the second ballot, where people in California vote for a replacement, his name is not allowed. And some of his supporters say he should be allowed like any other candidate in California to go on the second ballot. If that were to happen, it would be very strange. Because there would be a realistic possibility that a majority of voters would vote to recall Davis on the first question, and then even a small plurality could vote to re-elect him. What would happen then? It would be quite a thing.

KAGAN: Well, the other thing that is interesting, he's asking to push back the election on this to March 2, when the California primary would be, that would be a very interesting day in terms of California politics.

SCHNEIDER: Sure, that would be the presidential primary. And of course the Democrats expect there would be more favorable audience for Gray Davis, because there's only a contest from Democratic side. Bush is unopposed for renomination on the Republican side. So if it were in March, number one, it would be much farther down the line. He would have a long time to make his case. The budget fight -- he just signed a new California budget yesterday, so the budget fight would be long ago and far away and he would have time to recover. And in addition, there would be more Democrats coming out to vote in the presidential contest than there would be in October.

KAGAN: And really quickly, we will have to wait and see whether Gray Davis will be on the other side of the recall ballot, but some very interesting characters jumping into the race already, including an announcement we expect any minute now from "Hustler" publisher Larry Flynt.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. Larry Flynt, who has a reputation as a civil libertarian and a free speech advocate, he is a self-described smut peddler, but he says California is the most liberal state in the country, the most progressive state. He thinks he has a chance. Look, if 90 percent of the voters say they would never in a million years vote for Larry Flynt, but they divide their votes among 20 or 30 candidates, and Larry Flynt gets 10 percent of the vote, he could win -- anybody could win. That's the odd thing about California. And one of the court cases says they want to change the rules and make it tougher to get on the ballot, but it's kind of hard to change the rules in the middle of the game.

KAGAN: Yes, once the game is already well under way, a very high-stakes political game in California.

Bill, thank you very much. SCHNEIDER: All right.

KAGAN: Bill Schneider in Los Angeles.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com