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Arnold Front-Runner of California Candidates
Aired August 11, 2003 - 10:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Two months before California voters head to the polls in a recall vote aimed at the governor, a sampling of registered voters shows movie muscleman Arnold Schwarzenegger is the early front-runner of the nearly 200 potential candidates.
For some perspective on what's shaping up to be one of the strangest elections in U.S. history, let's bring in CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider. And, Bill, boy, am I glad we have you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well before they get to vote on Schwarzenegger the voters of California, where I am right now, are going to have to decide whether they want to fire or keep Governor Gray Davis, who is the governor, as he just said.
Well let's take a look at our latest figures on whether or not they vote to recall him. And the answer is by more than two to one, yes. Sixty-four percent of California voters say they'd recall Davis. Only 29 percent say they'd keep him in office. If those number don't turn around, we may begin to see Democrats abandoning Governor Davis and rallying behind Cruz Bustamante, his lieutenant governor who's running in the second ballot when people choose who would replace the governor if he's recalled.
Let's look at our latest figures on how they would vote in that replacement ballot. Well the first -- well, this is not -- this is the percentage who say they'd have a good chance to vote for each candidate. They were not asked to make a choice. Forty-two percent say there's a good chance they would vote for Schwarzenegger, 22 percent a good chance they'd vote for Bustamante, 13 percent for each of two conservatives, Bill Simon, who ran for governor last year, Tom McClintock, a conservative state senator, Jones is not on the ballot.
But as you can see, clearly, the favorite is Arnold Schwarzenegger. Everyone else is in single digits.
COLLINS: All right. So, Bill, if we went and looked at a graphic talking a little bit about the choices to replace Davis, not only the popularity, but the choices to replace Davis, I have here that Schwarzenegger is 25 percent, but also it's interesting that I have 23 percent who are not sure. Can we comment a little bit on that?
SCHNEIDER: That's right. Yes, that means that this race is just beginning. A lot of voters are confused by the whole thing. There are almost 200 candidates who have filed papers. They have to be certified. So there's likely to be well over a hundred candidates on that final ballot. It's going to be a very confusing election, a very confusing ballot.
And when they asked voters who among these candidates, even if you only name seven or eight, would you vote for right now, about a quarter say they have no idea. So I can't say that anything is firm at this point except for one thing: right now, the voters of California seem determined to throw Gray Davis out. Beyond that, they're not really sure.
COLLINS: Well, any idea -- do they think that Schwarzenegger can actually do the job?
SCHNEIDER: Yes, well he has an amazing favorability rating. Politicians would kill for this kind of favorability rating. Seventy- nine percent of the voters of California say they like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
And even more discouraging for Democrats is the fact that 69 percent of Democrats say that they like Arnold Schwarzenegger, which means if Cruz Bustamante, the one credible Democrat tries to run as the "Stop Arnold Candidate," it's going to be tough because Arnold is not unpopular among Democrats.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: What about his outsider status? Do you think that's something that's going to help him or hurt him in all of this?
SCHNEIDER: He's relying on it to help him, and it looks like it will. Because when we asked people would Schwarzenegger do a better or worse job than a career politician, by two to one, people say yes, he'd do a better job than a career politician.
You know, he as an actor has a credibility problem. A lot of people wonder could he somebody capable of handling the job of governor. But there's only one occupation that has less of a standing than actor and that's politicians.
Gray Davis is the ultimate career politician. He looks like the face of state government in Sacramento that a lot of people here dislike. They feel that they've been misruled by state government. And so when asked do you think Arnold would do a better job than a career politician, people clearly say, by two to one, yes, they think they would because career politicians in this state are in such disrepute.
And that is exactly the campaign Schwarzenegger is running. He says he's going to clean house in Sacramento, he's going to pay no attention to the special interests, he's not going to spend anytime raising money because he has his own money, he's not going to be a typical politician.
COLLINS: All right, so how much weight do you think we can put into polls at this point? I mean these numbers seem, you know, pretty heavily weighted to one side or another. What's your reaction to that? Do we still need sometime?
SCHNEIDER: I think my reaction to that is that the only number to pay attention to right now is whether people would keep or fire Gray Davis. And it does not look good for Gray Davis. I think in terms of a choice to replace him, that situation is totally up in the air because they've just begun to look at this amazingly crowded field.
COLLINS: All right, CNN's political analyst, senior political analyst, that is, Bill Schneider. I'm sure we will be checking with you a whole lot throughout all of this. Thanks, Bill.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired August 11, 2003 - 10:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Two months before California voters head to the polls in a recall vote aimed at the governor, a sampling of registered voters shows movie muscleman Arnold Schwarzenegger is the early front-runner of the nearly 200 potential candidates.
For some perspective on what's shaping up to be one of the strangest elections in U.S. history, let's bring in CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider. And, Bill, boy, am I glad we have you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well before they get to vote on Schwarzenegger the voters of California, where I am right now, are going to have to decide whether they want to fire or keep Governor Gray Davis, who is the governor, as he just said.
Well let's take a look at our latest figures on whether or not they vote to recall him. And the answer is by more than two to one, yes. Sixty-four percent of California voters say they'd recall Davis. Only 29 percent say they'd keep him in office. If those number don't turn around, we may begin to see Democrats abandoning Governor Davis and rallying behind Cruz Bustamante, his lieutenant governor who's running in the second ballot when people choose who would replace the governor if he's recalled.
Let's look at our latest figures on how they would vote in that replacement ballot. Well the first -- well, this is not -- this is the percentage who say they'd have a good chance to vote for each candidate. They were not asked to make a choice. Forty-two percent say there's a good chance they would vote for Schwarzenegger, 22 percent a good chance they'd vote for Bustamante, 13 percent for each of two conservatives, Bill Simon, who ran for governor last year, Tom McClintock, a conservative state senator, Jones is not on the ballot.
But as you can see, clearly, the favorite is Arnold Schwarzenegger. Everyone else is in single digits.
COLLINS: All right. So, Bill, if we went and looked at a graphic talking a little bit about the choices to replace Davis, not only the popularity, but the choices to replace Davis, I have here that Schwarzenegger is 25 percent, but also it's interesting that I have 23 percent who are not sure. Can we comment a little bit on that?
SCHNEIDER: That's right. Yes, that means that this race is just beginning. A lot of voters are confused by the whole thing. There are almost 200 candidates who have filed papers. They have to be certified. So there's likely to be well over a hundred candidates on that final ballot. It's going to be a very confusing election, a very confusing ballot.
And when they asked voters who among these candidates, even if you only name seven or eight, would you vote for right now, about a quarter say they have no idea. So I can't say that anything is firm at this point except for one thing: right now, the voters of California seem determined to throw Gray Davis out. Beyond that, they're not really sure.
COLLINS: Well, any idea -- do they think that Schwarzenegger can actually do the job?
SCHNEIDER: Yes, well he has an amazing favorability rating. Politicians would kill for this kind of favorability rating. Seventy- nine percent of the voters of California say they like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
And even more discouraging for Democrats is the fact that 69 percent of Democrats say that they like Arnold Schwarzenegger, which means if Cruz Bustamante, the one credible Democrat tries to run as the "Stop Arnold Candidate," it's going to be tough because Arnold is not unpopular among Democrats.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: What about his outsider status? Do you think that's something that's going to help him or hurt him in all of this?
SCHNEIDER: He's relying on it to help him, and it looks like it will. Because when we asked people would Schwarzenegger do a better or worse job than a career politician, by two to one, people say yes, he'd do a better job than a career politician.
You know, he as an actor has a credibility problem. A lot of people wonder could he somebody capable of handling the job of governor. But there's only one occupation that has less of a standing than actor and that's politicians.
Gray Davis is the ultimate career politician. He looks like the face of state government in Sacramento that a lot of people here dislike. They feel that they've been misruled by state government. And so when asked do you think Arnold would do a better job than a career politician, people clearly say, by two to one, yes, they think they would because career politicians in this state are in such disrepute.
And that is exactly the campaign Schwarzenegger is running. He says he's going to clean house in Sacramento, he's going to pay no attention to the special interests, he's not going to spend anytime raising money because he has his own money, he's not going to be a typical politician.
COLLINS: All right, so how much weight do you think we can put into polls at this point? I mean these numbers seem, you know, pretty heavily weighted to one side or another. What's your reaction to that? Do we still need sometime?
SCHNEIDER: I think my reaction to that is that the only number to pay attention to right now is whether people would keep or fire Gray Davis. And it does not look good for Gray Davis. I think in terms of a choice to replace him, that situation is totally up in the air because they've just begun to look at this amazingly crowded field.
COLLINS: All right, CNN's political analyst, senior political analyst, that is, Bill Schneider. I'm sure we will be checking with you a whole lot throughout all of this. Thanks, Bill.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
