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American Morning
Shiite Backlash Against U.S. Military in Iraq
Aired August 19, 2003 - 07:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: More on Iraq right now. The U.S. administrator of reconstruction, Paul Bremer, telling CNN last night that the sabotage attacks are very costly, but that they will be stopped.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PAUL BREMER, U.S. IRAQ ADMINISTRATOR: Well, there is really nothing new about these attacks against sabotage. We have been experiencing them since right after the war in April, and they have been here constantly in last three months since I've been here. There have been very significant attacks against the refineries and against the power structures, sometimes against the water systems. These have been going on for really three months and have caused literally billions of dollars of damage. And, of course, they have the effect of making it more difficult for us to restore essential services to the Iraqi people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: Meanwhile, U.S. military leaders are concerned about a possible backlash from the Shiite majority, after an incident last week when a U.S. helicopter damaged a religious flag flying from a tower in Baghdad. U.S. troops clashed with Iraqi protesters, and a Shiite group issued a call to arms, saying it would use militias to protect Muslim holy sites in Iraq.
Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East scholar at Sarah Lawrence College here in New York, is here to talk about a number of these topics.
Good to have you back, Professor. Good morning to you.
FAWAZ GERGES, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: Thank you, Bill.
HEMMER: When we spoke last week, you said we're focused too much on the violence, and it's not as bad as we believe it is right now. Paul Bremer says the sabotage is costing them $7 million today on the oil pipeline, billions of dollars over time. The sabotage continues. Add this up together for us. You were just in the region. Is it as bad or not?
GERGES: Well, I think what we need to understand, Bill, is that recently, new tactics have been applied by the armed resistance, including not just attacks against American forces, but also against the economic infrastructure of Iraq, and also against Iraqi police forces. And this is a classic tactic of urban guerrilla warfare. The goal is to alienate the Iraqi public further from the American forces. And, of course, the damage and the costs are not just the $7 million a day, but also it complicates and slows the process of economic and political reconstruction, and it angers the local community, who tend, naturally, to blame the occupiers -- that's the United States.
HEMMER: So, in a word or two, is it getting worse right now, or is it maintaining the same level of violence and destruction we have watched for three months?
GERGES: Well, as you know, attacks have increased in intensity in the last few weeks. Now, we are witnessing about between 10 and 15 attacks against the United States. The danger lies in the following: The danger lies in if the attacks spread into the Shiite areas. If and when such attacks spread into the Shiite areas, the U.S. Army could find itself embroiled in a major deadly real war, much deadlier than the present one.
HEMMER: Well, you're saying things that are quite heavy right now. Sixty five percent of the population is Shiite in the country of Iraq. How many millions does that number account for?
GERGES: Well, the Iraqi population is about 25 million. They represent about 65 percent. So, I mean, about, I would say, 13 million or 14 million.
HEMMER: OK. OK, let's work with that figure right now and move forward. You believe this could be absolute danger for the U.S. military. One member of the Shia militia that wants to organize this says essentially if the Shiites join the fight, the entire U.S. Army is captive overnight. Is that is an overstatement?
GERGES: Not at all. In fact, you're talking about Moktada al- Sadr, a fiery, young cleric who is a descendant of a long line of religious authority in Iraq, who has consistently been critical and suspicious of the American occupation and has consistently called for al-Hawza (ph), al-Hawza (ph) being the religious seminary of the Shiite to become deeply engaged in the political process. Fortunately -- fortunately, al-Sadr -- Moktada al-Sadr, his goals have been consistently rebuffed by the elder and more, you might say, respectable...
HEMMER: So, they're keeping him in check.
GERGES: And really, Bill, what's impressive here is that despite everything that has happened, despite the deteriorating security situation, despite the lack of basic services, it's very impressive that the Shiite leadership -- both secular and religious, by the way -- gives the United States the benefit of the doubt. This leadership has shown maturity, vision and political calculation, but yet, of course, the United States cannot afford to take the Shiites for granted or their grievances neglected.
HEMMER: We were told about the Shiites prior to the war breaking out. We were told there would be violence during the war and even after the war, although we have not seen it yet. GERGES: Not at all. And you might say why? Why the Shiites have not risen up against the United States? Three points: First, the Shiites suffered considerably under Saddam Hussein, and, of course, they were oppressed terribly. They don't actually want to be associated with the old regime. Secondly, the Shiites hope to be the main -- to benefit the most from the new order that's being formed in Iraq. And, thirdly and finally, the Shiites are giving the United States the benefit of the doubt. But we cannot afford to take the Shiites for granted or even neglect them.
HEMMER: We have only a short time left here. There is breaking news out of Iraq right now. The former vice president apparently has been apprehended in Kurdish-controlled territory in the northern part of the country. What could this man offer the U.S.? He was No. 20 on the list of 55.
GERGES: Taha Yassin is one of the -- or was one of the most important and close confidantes of Saddam Hussein. In fact, I would argue he was in terms of importance the fourth man in terms of significance.
But I would argue, Bill, the old regime is gone for good. That's not the question, even though elements of the old regime are basically predominant in the armed resistance. Now, you have, you might say, a broad spectrum of groups who are fighting the United States -- Iraqi Islamists, Arab fighters. And (UNINTELLIGIBLE) elements with the American occupation.
And, again, the challenge today is to make sure that the armed intifada does not spread into the Shiite area, because if it does, if it does, we'll find ourselves in a real war rather than low-intensity war planning.
HEMMER: Always good to talk to you. Come on back soon, OK?
GERGES: OK.
HEMMER: Fawaz Gerges, Sarah Lawrence College in New York.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired August 19, 2003 - 07:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: More on Iraq right now. The U.S. administrator of reconstruction, Paul Bremer, telling CNN last night that the sabotage attacks are very costly, but that they will be stopped.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PAUL BREMER, U.S. IRAQ ADMINISTRATOR: Well, there is really nothing new about these attacks against sabotage. We have been experiencing them since right after the war in April, and they have been here constantly in last three months since I've been here. There have been very significant attacks against the refineries and against the power structures, sometimes against the water systems. These have been going on for really three months and have caused literally billions of dollars of damage. And, of course, they have the effect of making it more difficult for us to restore essential services to the Iraqi people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: Meanwhile, U.S. military leaders are concerned about a possible backlash from the Shiite majority, after an incident last week when a U.S. helicopter damaged a religious flag flying from a tower in Baghdad. U.S. troops clashed with Iraqi protesters, and a Shiite group issued a call to arms, saying it would use militias to protect Muslim holy sites in Iraq.
Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East scholar at Sarah Lawrence College here in New York, is here to talk about a number of these topics.
Good to have you back, Professor. Good morning to you.
FAWAZ GERGES, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: Thank you, Bill.
HEMMER: When we spoke last week, you said we're focused too much on the violence, and it's not as bad as we believe it is right now. Paul Bremer says the sabotage is costing them $7 million today on the oil pipeline, billions of dollars over time. The sabotage continues. Add this up together for us. You were just in the region. Is it as bad or not?
GERGES: Well, I think what we need to understand, Bill, is that recently, new tactics have been applied by the armed resistance, including not just attacks against American forces, but also against the economic infrastructure of Iraq, and also against Iraqi police forces. And this is a classic tactic of urban guerrilla warfare. The goal is to alienate the Iraqi public further from the American forces. And, of course, the damage and the costs are not just the $7 million a day, but also it complicates and slows the process of economic and political reconstruction, and it angers the local community, who tend, naturally, to blame the occupiers -- that's the United States.
HEMMER: So, in a word or two, is it getting worse right now, or is it maintaining the same level of violence and destruction we have watched for three months?
GERGES: Well, as you know, attacks have increased in intensity in the last few weeks. Now, we are witnessing about between 10 and 15 attacks against the United States. The danger lies in the following: The danger lies in if the attacks spread into the Shiite areas. If and when such attacks spread into the Shiite areas, the U.S. Army could find itself embroiled in a major deadly real war, much deadlier than the present one.
HEMMER: Well, you're saying things that are quite heavy right now. Sixty five percent of the population is Shiite in the country of Iraq. How many millions does that number account for?
GERGES: Well, the Iraqi population is about 25 million. They represent about 65 percent. So, I mean, about, I would say, 13 million or 14 million.
HEMMER: OK. OK, let's work with that figure right now and move forward. You believe this could be absolute danger for the U.S. military. One member of the Shia militia that wants to organize this says essentially if the Shiites join the fight, the entire U.S. Army is captive overnight. Is that is an overstatement?
GERGES: Not at all. In fact, you're talking about Moktada al- Sadr, a fiery, young cleric who is a descendant of a long line of religious authority in Iraq, who has consistently been critical and suspicious of the American occupation and has consistently called for al-Hawza (ph), al-Hawza (ph) being the religious seminary of the Shiite to become deeply engaged in the political process. Fortunately -- fortunately, al-Sadr -- Moktada al-Sadr, his goals have been consistently rebuffed by the elder and more, you might say, respectable...
HEMMER: So, they're keeping him in check.
GERGES: And really, Bill, what's impressive here is that despite everything that has happened, despite the deteriorating security situation, despite the lack of basic services, it's very impressive that the Shiite leadership -- both secular and religious, by the way -- gives the United States the benefit of the doubt. This leadership has shown maturity, vision and political calculation, but yet, of course, the United States cannot afford to take the Shiites for granted or their grievances neglected.
HEMMER: We were told about the Shiites prior to the war breaking out. We were told there would be violence during the war and even after the war, although we have not seen it yet. GERGES: Not at all. And you might say why? Why the Shiites have not risen up against the United States? Three points: First, the Shiites suffered considerably under Saddam Hussein, and, of course, they were oppressed terribly. They don't actually want to be associated with the old regime. Secondly, the Shiites hope to be the main -- to benefit the most from the new order that's being formed in Iraq. And, thirdly and finally, the Shiites are giving the United States the benefit of the doubt. But we cannot afford to take the Shiites for granted or even neglect them.
HEMMER: We have only a short time left here. There is breaking news out of Iraq right now. The former vice president apparently has been apprehended in Kurdish-controlled territory in the northern part of the country. What could this man offer the U.S.? He was No. 20 on the list of 55.
GERGES: Taha Yassin is one of the -- or was one of the most important and close confidantes of Saddam Hussein. In fact, I would argue he was in terms of importance the fourth man in terms of significance.
But I would argue, Bill, the old regime is gone for good. That's not the question, even though elements of the old regime are basically predominant in the armed resistance. Now, you have, you might say, a broad spectrum of groups who are fighting the United States -- Iraqi Islamists, Arab fighters. And (UNINTELLIGIBLE) elements with the American occupation.
And, again, the challenge today is to make sure that the armed intifada does not spread into the Shiite area, because if it does, if it does, we'll find ourselves in a real war rather than low-intensity war planning.
HEMMER: Always good to talk to you. Come on back soon, OK?
GERGES: OK.
HEMMER: Fawaz Gerges, Sarah Lawrence College in New York.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
