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Discussing Al Qaeda Attacks Over the Years

Aired August 20, 2003 - 10:25   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: But now we want to talk about this attack that happened yesterday, and we want to do so with a terrorism expert, who's joining us right now from Washington. Ben Venzke is the founder of Intel Center, which provides intelligence support to the military law enforcement and security communities, and he also recently coauthored the book "The Al Qaeda Threat," an analytical guide to Al Qaeda's tactics and targets. Ben joins us now from Washington.
Good to see you again, Ben. And sorry that every time we have to talk it's got to be because of something like this.

Let's talk about what we saw happen here yesterday. Many of us were surprised to see an attack of this size, this nature, waged again the U.N. To my memory, I can't remember seeing an attack waged like this by any of these groups in the Middle East against the U.N. What do you make of that?

BEN VENZKE, TERRORISM EXPERT: Yes, you're right. I mean, there have been attacks against U.N. personnel in different countries, but there's never been attack of this scale against a major U.N. facility, like a headquarters.

That being said, the U.N. has never been removed from being included in threats by Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, who see them as a tool for the West, as a tool for the United States, and just another way that the U.S. tries to influence things around the world. So that puts them in the crosshairs, unfortunately, just like everyone else.

HARRIS: So what do you think then? You mentioned Al Qaeda. Do you think this was Al Qaeda? And Considering the size of this blast, I've talked to some people off screen who says this doesn't look like could have been just a bunch of ragtag Fedayeen who've been running around and hiding themselves. This was a lot of explosives used here.

VENZKE: Yes, this attack -- I mean, there's a wide array of different groups operating in Iraq, and some aren't able to do much more than roadside shootings and bombings, things of that type, on a much smaller scale. This is certainly in the caliber of an Al Qaeda- type operation, and it very well may have been Al Qaeda.

But there are also some other groups that are operating there that could be members of the former intelligence community in Iraq or the military, or even some Shiite groups and some others. It's hard to say, but there's a much smaller number of groups that could do this, as opposed to the daily attacks that we see. HARRIS: But you know what strikes me about this though, Ben, is something that you've actually written up. I want to see if we could put this graphic up on the screen, because you and I have e-mailed about this a couple of times. I would love to get your vision on this, your view on this. Al Qaeda seems as which there's a window which they're most effective, for one reason or another, and it happens to be between August and November.

Look here at the list of just some of the attacks that have been waged by Al Qaeda -- the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania happened in August, bombing of USS Cole in October, terror attacks in New York and Washington, of course, September 11th, and we have more of that also happening, like the bombing in Bali that also happened in, I believe that was in October as well, assassination of the ambassador in Jordan, all of these things happening in that one window. This bombing yesterday also happens to fall within this window. Does that tell you anything? And why do you think this is?

VENZKE: Well, there's great concern about this, and that really is, the question is why. And it's not just this bombing, but we had the Jordanian embassy, we also had the hospital in Mozdok, Russia, and we had the bombing of the Marriott in Jakarta, all were in August.

So it's not sure -- we're not sure why that happens to be the case, but if you look at it historically for five years, that pattern has always held true, that their attacks are the most successful and the most effective during that four-month window, which up until this year, 100 percent of the major attacks occurred between then, and then because of Riyadh and Casablanca earlier this year, that numbers goes down to 71 percent, but it definitely seems to be the peak season for them.

HARRIS: That's interesting. On the way out, I have to ask you one question -- if you were a betting man, what you be betting on? Would you be betting that the Palestinian Authority will reign in the terrorists there in that region before the U.S. reigns in the terrorists in Iraq?

VENZKE: I have a feeling that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will outlast just about everything.

But I would caution that with we're going to be in Iraq for a long time. And even if there are incredible improvements in security, and civilian services and other things, you are still going to see a terrorist attack like we saw against the U.N. headquarters, just like we're still going to experience them here in the United States.

HARRIS: So you don't believe we're at the end of this. Very interesting.

VENZKE: No.

HARRIS: We'll see how it turns out. Thanks, Ben. Appreciate the time as always. Ben Venzke, appreciate that. And we'll talk to you soon.

VENZKE: Thanks, Leon.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired August 20, 2003 - 10:25   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: But now we want to talk about this attack that happened yesterday, and we want to do so with a terrorism expert, who's joining us right now from Washington. Ben Venzke is the founder of Intel Center, which provides intelligence support to the military law enforcement and security communities, and he also recently coauthored the book "The Al Qaeda Threat," an analytical guide to Al Qaeda's tactics and targets. Ben joins us now from Washington.
Good to see you again, Ben. And sorry that every time we have to talk it's got to be because of something like this.

Let's talk about what we saw happen here yesterday. Many of us were surprised to see an attack of this size, this nature, waged again the U.N. To my memory, I can't remember seeing an attack waged like this by any of these groups in the Middle East against the U.N. What do you make of that?

BEN VENZKE, TERRORISM EXPERT: Yes, you're right. I mean, there have been attacks against U.N. personnel in different countries, but there's never been attack of this scale against a major U.N. facility, like a headquarters.

That being said, the U.N. has never been removed from being included in threats by Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, who see them as a tool for the West, as a tool for the United States, and just another way that the U.S. tries to influence things around the world. So that puts them in the crosshairs, unfortunately, just like everyone else.

HARRIS: So what do you think then? You mentioned Al Qaeda. Do you think this was Al Qaeda? And Considering the size of this blast, I've talked to some people off screen who says this doesn't look like could have been just a bunch of ragtag Fedayeen who've been running around and hiding themselves. This was a lot of explosives used here.

VENZKE: Yes, this attack -- I mean, there's a wide array of different groups operating in Iraq, and some aren't able to do much more than roadside shootings and bombings, things of that type, on a much smaller scale. This is certainly in the caliber of an Al Qaeda- type operation, and it very well may have been Al Qaeda.

But there are also some other groups that are operating there that could be members of the former intelligence community in Iraq or the military, or even some Shiite groups and some others. It's hard to say, but there's a much smaller number of groups that could do this, as opposed to the daily attacks that we see. HARRIS: But you know what strikes me about this though, Ben, is something that you've actually written up. I want to see if we could put this graphic up on the screen, because you and I have e-mailed about this a couple of times. I would love to get your vision on this, your view on this. Al Qaeda seems as which there's a window which they're most effective, for one reason or another, and it happens to be between August and November.

Look here at the list of just some of the attacks that have been waged by Al Qaeda -- the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania happened in August, bombing of USS Cole in October, terror attacks in New York and Washington, of course, September 11th, and we have more of that also happening, like the bombing in Bali that also happened in, I believe that was in October as well, assassination of the ambassador in Jordan, all of these things happening in that one window. This bombing yesterday also happens to fall within this window. Does that tell you anything? And why do you think this is?

VENZKE: Well, there's great concern about this, and that really is, the question is why. And it's not just this bombing, but we had the Jordanian embassy, we also had the hospital in Mozdok, Russia, and we had the bombing of the Marriott in Jakarta, all were in August.

So it's not sure -- we're not sure why that happens to be the case, but if you look at it historically for five years, that pattern has always held true, that their attacks are the most successful and the most effective during that four-month window, which up until this year, 100 percent of the major attacks occurred between then, and then because of Riyadh and Casablanca earlier this year, that numbers goes down to 71 percent, but it definitely seems to be the peak season for them.

HARRIS: That's interesting. On the way out, I have to ask you one question -- if you were a betting man, what you be betting on? Would you be betting that the Palestinian Authority will reign in the terrorists there in that region before the U.S. reigns in the terrorists in Iraq?

VENZKE: I have a feeling that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will outlast just about everything.

But I would caution that with we're going to be in Iraq for a long time. And even if there are incredible improvements in security, and civilian services and other things, you are still going to see a terrorist attack like we saw against the U.N. headquarters, just like we're still going to experience them here in the United States.

HARRIS: So you don't believe we're at the end of this. Very interesting.

VENZKE: No.

HARRIS: We'll see how it turns out. Thanks, Ben. Appreciate the time as always. Ben Venzke, appreciate that. And we'll talk to you soon.

VENZKE: Thanks, Leon.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com