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American Morning
Interview With Peter Brookes
Aired August 28, 2003 - 07:36 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: From Beijing, China now, a second day of talks in the nuclear stand-off with North Korea ended a bit earlier today. The U.S. and four other countries trying to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
Peter Brookes, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, back with us again here on AMERICAN MORNING.
Good to see you, Peter.
Good morning to you.
PETER BROOKES, FORMER DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: Is this the ultimate diplomatic low ball when diplomats walk into a room and say just talking is considered a success?
BROOKES: No. This is very important. This is the first step on probably what is a long journey, as you know, Bill. You've been following this for a while. This is very complicated. It's very complex. And there's, it's a brand new format. We have six parties here now. It's not bilateral talks, it's not trilateral, which we saw in the spring. But we've got six parties, including all the major players that need to be there.
So I think the success of it is moving it into a multilateral format, getting everybody in the same room to talk about things. There's going to be a lost of positioning and posturing. And I think the real success out of this will be getting a framework for additional talks.
HEMMER: You wrote an article about these talks a few days ago. You called this the ultimate in nuclear poker. Who's holding the trump card, if that's the case, Peter?
BROOKES: Well, I think that, you know, the United States certainly has the strongest hand here. We're a political power, we're an economic power, we're a military power. I think that North Korea has a relatively weak hand, although they do have nuclear weapons, but they are not a political or an economic power.
I think beyond that, probably China has the second strongest hand because they're the ones, I think, who can have the most influence with Pyongyang, with Kim Jong Il, and can twist arms, because they are their largest trading partner and do a lot of -- give them a lot of assistance and aid at concessionary prices. HEMMER: There are some who believe, though, that North Korea actually holds the ultimate trump card. You believe, at least your surprised, anyway, that the North is still talking at this point. Why are you surprised about that if some consider them to be in a no lose position right now?
BROOKES: Well, they are in a lose position, Bill. I'm not sure you quite characterized my views correctly there. I think that North Korea really does need engagement with the international community. Their, economically, they're a basket case. Over the last, you know, eight or nine years, over two million North Koreans have starved because of a famine. Most of that famine has been politically induced. It's not because of weather or bad luck, necessarily. It's because of the collectivist agricultural policies of North Korea.
So I think North Korea really needs international engagement. They really need international aid and they need international assistance. And if they don't move in that direction and really look into the abyss and this regime could crumble under its own weight.
HEMMER: You know, back in 1994, the last time we were on this topic, it took months to get a deal together. Do you see it more complex and more complicated now?
BROOKES: Well, it's as equally complicated, perhaps it is more, because we have more parties involved here. As I mentioned in my article in the "New York Post," the fact is is that other countries have other issues here. The Japanese are concerned about an abductee issue. The North Koreans kidnapped a number of Japanese in the '70s and '80s for use as, to train their North Korean spies. The South Koreans want reconciliation on the peninsula. Russia would like to have some involvement here for perhaps a rail line through North Korea into the Russia far east, which would allow economic development there. And, you know, obviously the United States is worried about proliferation beyond the Korean Peninsula.
So it's not only the fact that North Korea may have nuclear weapons, but we're concerned about their involvement with Iran, with Pakistan. And then, of course, worst of all, that they may get involved with terrorist groups with nuclear weapons.
HEMMER: Well, this train runs in a lot of directions, does it not, in Beijing? Wow.
Peter, thanks.
Good to see you again.
BROOKES: Thank you, Bill.
HEMMER: Peter Brookes, the Heritage Foundation in D.C.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT
www.fdch.com
Aired August 28, 2003 - 07:36 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: From Beijing, China now, a second day of talks in the nuclear stand-off with North Korea ended a bit earlier today. The U.S. and four other countries trying to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
Peter Brookes, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, back with us again here on AMERICAN MORNING.
Good to see you, Peter.
Good morning to you.
PETER BROOKES, FORMER DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: Is this the ultimate diplomatic low ball when diplomats walk into a room and say just talking is considered a success?
BROOKES: No. This is very important. This is the first step on probably what is a long journey, as you know, Bill. You've been following this for a while. This is very complicated. It's very complex. And there's, it's a brand new format. We have six parties here now. It's not bilateral talks, it's not trilateral, which we saw in the spring. But we've got six parties, including all the major players that need to be there.
So I think the success of it is moving it into a multilateral format, getting everybody in the same room to talk about things. There's going to be a lost of positioning and posturing. And I think the real success out of this will be getting a framework for additional talks.
HEMMER: You wrote an article about these talks a few days ago. You called this the ultimate in nuclear poker. Who's holding the trump card, if that's the case, Peter?
BROOKES: Well, I think that, you know, the United States certainly has the strongest hand here. We're a political power, we're an economic power, we're a military power. I think that North Korea has a relatively weak hand, although they do have nuclear weapons, but they are not a political or an economic power.
I think beyond that, probably China has the second strongest hand because they're the ones, I think, who can have the most influence with Pyongyang, with Kim Jong Il, and can twist arms, because they are their largest trading partner and do a lot of -- give them a lot of assistance and aid at concessionary prices. HEMMER: There are some who believe, though, that North Korea actually holds the ultimate trump card. You believe, at least your surprised, anyway, that the North is still talking at this point. Why are you surprised about that if some consider them to be in a no lose position right now?
BROOKES: Well, they are in a lose position, Bill. I'm not sure you quite characterized my views correctly there. I think that North Korea really does need engagement with the international community. Their, economically, they're a basket case. Over the last, you know, eight or nine years, over two million North Koreans have starved because of a famine. Most of that famine has been politically induced. It's not because of weather or bad luck, necessarily. It's because of the collectivist agricultural policies of North Korea.
So I think North Korea really needs international engagement. They really need international aid and they need international assistance. And if they don't move in that direction and really look into the abyss and this regime could crumble under its own weight.
HEMMER: You know, back in 1994, the last time we were on this topic, it took months to get a deal together. Do you see it more complex and more complicated now?
BROOKES: Well, it's as equally complicated, perhaps it is more, because we have more parties involved here. As I mentioned in my article in the "New York Post," the fact is is that other countries have other issues here. The Japanese are concerned about an abductee issue. The North Koreans kidnapped a number of Japanese in the '70s and '80s for use as, to train their North Korean spies. The South Koreans want reconciliation on the peninsula. Russia would like to have some involvement here for perhaps a rail line through North Korea into the Russia far east, which would allow economic development there. And, you know, obviously the United States is worried about proliferation beyond the Korean Peninsula.
So it's not only the fact that North Korea may have nuclear weapons, but we're concerned about their involvement with Iran, with Pakistan. And then, of course, worst of all, that they may get involved with terrorist groups with nuclear weapons.
HEMMER: Well, this train runs in a lot of directions, does it not, in Beijing? Wow.
Peter, thanks.
Good to see you again.
BROOKES: Thank you, Bill.
HEMMER: Peter Brookes, the Heritage Foundation in D.C.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT
www.fdch.com
