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CNN Live Today

Political Analysis With William Schneider

Aired September 01, 2003 - 10:01   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, nine Democrats are running for president, and a new poll suggests the crowded field is jockeying in a race that's still wide open.
For a closer look at the race and its harsh realities, we turn to CNN's Senior Political Correspondent Bill Schneider.

Good morning to you, Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Heidi.

COLLINS: I want to talk to you right off the bat, if we could, about this new CBS poll that's saying two-thirds of voters don't really have any idea who the Democratic candidates are.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. The first caucuses and primaries are in January, a little over four months away, and, when CBS News asked voters around the country can you name a single one of these people -- there are nine people you see there on the screen -- nine candidates -- Democrats running for president to challenge President Bush. Two- thirds of Americans and two-thirds of Democrats could not name a single one.

Campaign? What campaign? Most Americans aren't really paying attention yet with the race just over four months away.

COLLINS: Well, is that a long time away? I mean it seems like maybe people would know a little bit more about these candidates, even at this point.

SCHNEIDER: Well, they don't know a great deal because, look, it's the summer vacation, politics hasn't weighed heavily on their minds. President Bush, despite his problems, is still a pretty popular president, so even Democrats are not looking for a candidate at this point. Most Democrats just aren't paying attention. If they're paying attention to anything, it's to that spectacular California recall election.

COLLINS: Yes.

SCHNEIDER: And that's monopolizing a lot of the attention that would otherwise be going to the Democratic presidential contest.

COLLINS: Well, if anybody does have momentum, Bill, it would probably have to be Howard Dean. What are we talking about now with his kind of following?

SCHNEIDER: What we're looking at is really one candidate who's becoming the front-runner. That's Howard Dean. I'd really say that the Democratic race is shaping up between really two candidates.

Dr. Howard Dean of -- the former governor of Vermont who's becoming a front runner, not because he's showing up as the head -- at the head of the national polls, but because he's doing well in the two key states that are going to vote in January, in Iowa where there are going to be caucuses January 19 and in New Hampshire January 27, the nation's first primary -- he is moving into first place in those key states.

The other candidate is something I call Stop Dean. This is mostly limited to some Democratic professionals, operatives, Washington insiders who are terrified that the Democratic Party is going to nominate Howard Dean, and that means a certain loss, in their view, to President Bush because they think Dean is too liberal.

If he's nominated, the race will be a referendum on refighting the war in Iraq, on gay civil unions, which Dr. Dean signed into law when he was governor of Vermont, and on repealing the Bush tax cuts, and those Democrats say those are not the Democrats' best issues.

The problem with the Stop Dean movement is it doesn't have a candidate. It has about four candidates -- Kerry, Dean (ph), Lieberman, Gephardt -- but it has not able to unite around a single alternative to Howard Dean.

COLLINS: Well, speaking of this group, the Stop Deaners, as we've sort of been calling them, what happens then with the Iowa caucus and in New Hampshire? In Iowa, if Gephardt loses, he's out. And, in New Hampshire, if John Kerry loses, he's out. Then what happens with the Stop Deaners? Is this where they really take action?

SCHNEIDER: Well, then they might galvanize into mo -- and get some momentum and say Dean is going to get the nomination. Can he be stopped? Well, who's left? Kerry will have been eliminated in Iowa if he loses the caucuses. Sorry Gephardt in Iowa. And Kerry in New Hampshire.

And then what happens? Then you've got some candidates who, so far, haven't shown a lot of spark in this campaign. More conservative candidates -- Joe Lieberman who's hoping to make a strong showing in Arizona, John Edwards, a Southerner, who's taking -- hoping to make a stand in South Carolina. Then it will be really up to them.

Plus, one other possibility. There's some fantasizing going on among Democrats here in Washington that maybe somebody can come in and save the Democratic Party from Howard Dean. For a while, they fantasized about Hillary Clinton. Then it was try to get Al Gore into the race.

Now a lot of the fantasy has centered on Wesley Clark who's going to announce his intentions in a couple of weeks. Wesley Clark wasn't even in that list of 10 that we showed before because he has not announced he's running. He could run. He's a military commander who commanded the forces in Kosovo in 1998. He could be a strong candidate.

Is he going to position himself as the Stop Dean candidate? He and Howard Dean are good friends, and a lot of Democrats are suspecting that, if Howard Dean becomes the nominee, Wesley Clark could very well be his running mate.

COLLINS: Interesting, indeed.

Another interesting thing: Even though Hillary Rodham Clinton has said, no, she is not going to run, does this at all -- this discussion we're having right now about the situation with the Democrats -- does it open the playing field a little bit more for her?

SCHNEIDER: Well, it could, but there's no indication, absolutely none, that she's interested in running. That's, of course, a risk for her because, remember, if she does not run and the Democrats nominate Dean or anybody else and win, that sort of -- that does close the door to her in 2008 when a lot of people suspect she does want to run because, if a Democrat becomes president in 2005, that Democrat will certainly get the nomination in 2008, and she will be in the wilderness for eight long years before it opens up again and she can run for president.

COLLINS: All right. Bill Schneider, as always, thank you so much for your insight into all of this.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired September 1, 2003 - 10:01   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, nine Democrats are running for president, and a new poll suggests the crowded field is jockeying in a race that's still wide open.
For a closer look at the race and its harsh realities, we turn to CNN's Senior Political Correspondent Bill Schneider.

Good morning to you, Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Heidi.

COLLINS: I want to talk to you right off the bat, if we could, about this new CBS poll that's saying two-thirds of voters don't really have any idea who the Democratic candidates are.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. The first caucuses and primaries are in January, a little over four months away, and, when CBS News asked voters around the country can you name a single one of these people -- there are nine people you see there on the screen -- nine candidates -- Democrats running for president to challenge President Bush. Two- thirds of Americans and two-thirds of Democrats could not name a single one.

Campaign? What campaign? Most Americans aren't really paying attention yet with the race just over four months away.

COLLINS: Well, is that a long time away? I mean it seems like maybe people would know a little bit more about these candidates, even at this point.

SCHNEIDER: Well, they don't know a great deal because, look, it's the summer vacation, politics hasn't weighed heavily on their minds. President Bush, despite his problems, is still a pretty popular president, so even Democrats are not looking for a candidate at this point. Most Democrats just aren't paying attention. If they're paying attention to anything, it's to that spectacular California recall election.

COLLINS: Yes.

SCHNEIDER: And that's monopolizing a lot of the attention that would otherwise be going to the Democratic presidential contest.

COLLINS: Well, if anybody does have momentum, Bill, it would probably have to be Howard Dean. What are we talking about now with his kind of following?

SCHNEIDER: What we're looking at is really one candidate who's becoming the front-runner. That's Howard Dean. I'd really say that the Democratic race is shaping up between really two candidates.

Dr. Howard Dean of -- the former governor of Vermont who's becoming a front runner, not because he's showing up as the head -- at the head of the national polls, but because he's doing well in the two key states that are going to vote in January, in Iowa where there are going to be caucuses January 19 and in New Hampshire January 27, the nation's first primary -- he is moving into first place in those key states.

The other candidate is something I call Stop Dean. This is mostly limited to some Democratic professionals, operatives, Washington insiders who are terrified that the Democratic Party is going to nominate Howard Dean, and that means a certain loss, in their view, to President Bush because they think Dean is too liberal.

If he's nominated, the race will be a referendum on refighting the war in Iraq, on gay civil unions, which Dr. Dean signed into law when he was governor of Vermont, and on repealing the Bush tax cuts, and those Democrats say those are not the Democrats' best issues.

The problem with the Stop Dean movement is it doesn't have a candidate. It has about four candidates -- Kerry, Dean (ph), Lieberman, Gephardt -- but it has not able to unite around a single alternative to Howard Dean.

COLLINS: Well, speaking of this group, the Stop Deaners, as we've sort of been calling them, what happens then with the Iowa caucus and in New Hampshire? In Iowa, if Gephardt loses, he's out. And, in New Hampshire, if John Kerry loses, he's out. Then what happens with the Stop Deaners? Is this where they really take action?

SCHNEIDER: Well, then they might galvanize into mo -- and get some momentum and say Dean is going to get the nomination. Can he be stopped? Well, who's left? Kerry will have been eliminated in Iowa if he loses the caucuses. Sorry Gephardt in Iowa. And Kerry in New Hampshire.

And then what happens? Then you've got some candidates who, so far, haven't shown a lot of spark in this campaign. More conservative candidates -- Joe Lieberman who's hoping to make a strong showing in Arizona, John Edwards, a Southerner, who's taking -- hoping to make a stand in South Carolina. Then it will be really up to them.

Plus, one other possibility. There's some fantasizing going on among Democrats here in Washington that maybe somebody can come in and save the Democratic Party from Howard Dean. For a while, they fantasized about Hillary Clinton. Then it was try to get Al Gore into the race.

Now a lot of the fantasy has centered on Wesley Clark who's going to announce his intentions in a couple of weeks. Wesley Clark wasn't even in that list of 10 that we showed before because he has not announced he's running. He could run. He's a military commander who commanded the forces in Kosovo in 1998. He could be a strong candidate.

Is he going to position himself as the Stop Dean candidate? He and Howard Dean are good friends, and a lot of Democrats are suspecting that, if Howard Dean becomes the nominee, Wesley Clark could very well be his running mate.

COLLINS: Interesting, indeed.

Another interesting thing: Even though Hillary Rodham Clinton has said, no, she is not going to run, does this at all -- this discussion we're having right now about the situation with the Democrats -- does it open the playing field a little bit more for her?

SCHNEIDER: Well, it could, but there's no indication, absolutely none, that she's interested in running. That's, of course, a risk for her because, remember, if she does not run and the Democrats nominate Dean or anybody else and win, that sort of -- that does close the door to her in 2008 when a lot of people suspect she does want to run because, if a Democrat becomes president in 2005, that Democrat will certainly get the nomination in 2008, and she will be in the wilderness for eight long years before it opens up again and she can run for president.

COLLINS: All right. Bill Schneider, as always, thank you so much for your insight into all of this.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com