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New Poll Out Shows Public's Enthusiasm for Recall of Davis May Have Slowed Down
Aired September 09, 2003 - 10:46 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Also looking at some different type of numbers, political numbers. There's a new poll out that shows the public's enthusiasm for the recall of Governor Gray Davis may have slowed down a bit, while Davis' second in command is taking the lead among his potential replacements.
Our national correspondent Bob Franken crunches the numbers and has the story from his new home away from home Southern California. Hey, Bob.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: First of all, the operative word here is "a bit." Yes, and the campaigns are spinning like whirling dervishes out here, but these are the numbers.
The latest field poll, which is the first one to come out since August 15, shows that 55 percent of the likely voters who were polled, there were about 500 of those, 55 percent of them say they favor the recall. Remember, that the governor can be recalled if 50 plus one says that there should be a recall. Fifty-five percent at this point says yes, 40 percent says no. What is making the Davis people happy is that that's compared to the last poll where it was 58 and 37.
Now, in case there is a recall, comes now the race for his replacement. And that is really a two-man race between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat lieutenant governor, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, I know you've heard of him. And Bustamante has ever so slightly increased his lead. At 30 to 25, that compared to 25 to 22 the last time around. That's really within the statistical variance here which is to say it doesn't really matter.
But the fact of the matter is that Schwarzenegger has not really gained any traction. And that's because of the Tom McClintock appearance of 13 percent. If Schwarzenegger had that, the poll says, he would actually be a teeny-weeny bit ahead.
But the fact of the matter is for Gray Davis what this does show is that at least he's not deteriorating and he chooses to make that good news saying that what he's really got here is an improved 6 percent spread.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. GRAY DAVIS (ED), CALIFORNIA: I'm excited about the field poll. It shows we're making great strides. The last poll had us 21 points behind, now we're 15 points behind.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FRANKEN: What this shows is there's a very volatile electorate. What the Gray Davis supporters are saying is that they really haven't really pulled out their big guns. This could be determined by the campaign that the labor organizations are going to run. The AFL-CIO has over 2 million members in California and they haven't really revved up what is going to be a saturation commercial campaign -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Now, that labor very strong behind the governor. Bob Franken, thank you so much for that from California.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
May Have Slowed Down>
Aired September 9, 2003 - 10:46 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Also looking at some different type of numbers, political numbers. There's a new poll out that shows the public's enthusiasm for the recall of Governor Gray Davis may have slowed down a bit, while Davis' second in command is taking the lead among his potential replacements.
Our national correspondent Bob Franken crunches the numbers and has the story from his new home away from home Southern California. Hey, Bob.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: First of all, the operative word here is "a bit." Yes, and the campaigns are spinning like whirling dervishes out here, but these are the numbers.
The latest field poll, which is the first one to come out since August 15, shows that 55 percent of the likely voters who were polled, there were about 500 of those, 55 percent of them say they favor the recall. Remember, that the governor can be recalled if 50 plus one says that there should be a recall. Fifty-five percent at this point says yes, 40 percent says no. What is making the Davis people happy is that that's compared to the last poll where it was 58 and 37.
Now, in case there is a recall, comes now the race for his replacement. And that is really a two-man race between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat lieutenant governor, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, I know you've heard of him. And Bustamante has ever so slightly increased his lead. At 30 to 25, that compared to 25 to 22 the last time around. That's really within the statistical variance here which is to say it doesn't really matter.
But the fact of the matter is that Schwarzenegger has not really gained any traction. And that's because of the Tom McClintock appearance of 13 percent. If Schwarzenegger had that, the poll says, he would actually be a teeny-weeny bit ahead.
But the fact of the matter is for Gray Davis what this does show is that at least he's not deteriorating and he chooses to make that good news saying that what he's really got here is an improved 6 percent spread.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. GRAY DAVIS (ED), CALIFORNIA: I'm excited about the field poll. It shows we're making great strides. The last poll had us 21 points behind, now we're 15 points behind.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FRANKEN: What this shows is there's a very volatile electorate. What the Gray Davis supporters are saying is that they really haven't really pulled out their big guns. This could be determined by the campaign that the labor organizations are going to run. The AFL-CIO has over 2 million members in California and they haven't really revved up what is going to be a saturation commercial campaign -- Daryn.
KAGAN: Now, that labor very strong behind the governor. Bob Franken, thank you so much for that from California.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
May Have Slowed Down>
