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CNN Live Sunday
Hurricane Forecasts More Accurate Than Ever
Aired September 14, 2003 - 10:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Correct forecasting of any hurricane, speed and direction, can amount to the difference between life and death for people in the storm's path.
CNN's John Zarrella reports those forecasts are more accurate than ever now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): Max Mayfield is more than a little bit pleased.
MAX MAYFIELD, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: ... it was forecast to move right over Bermuda, even two days beforehand.
ZARRELLA: So far this season, National Hurricane Center forecasters say they've done an excellent job pinpointing where a storm will be up to five days before it gets there. They are doing better this year than anytime in the past because the science and technology keeps improving.
MAYFIELD: The satellite observation is better than ever. The aircraft observations are better than ever. We have a new jet that flies the barometer around the hurricane, so the data that goes into the models are vastly improved.
ZARRELLA: In July, the hurricane center forecast Claudette would cross the Yucatan Peninsula and take a hard left turn toward the Texas coast. It did. The forecast for powerful hurricane Fabian was even better. The storm came within a few miles of the forecast track as it passed over Bermuda. Now the experts face their toughest challenge.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Still a lot of different possibilities, but keep our fingers crossed.
ZARRELLA: Isabel, potentially a very dangerous hurricane, is closing in on the U.S. East Coast. The accuracy of the center's five- day forecast will be critical. It will determine who needs to start paying close attention.
MAYFIELD: If you're within that cone of uncertainty in five days, we don't want anybody to panic. We just want them to calmly think about what they might do if the hurricane stays in that forecast track.
ZARRELLA: Mayfield cautions, while their skills are getting better, there hasn't been a sudden forecasting epiphany.
(on camera): The experts all say figuring out where a hurricane will go is still an inexact science. These storms can do strange things. And forecasters warn, you may be making a big mistake if you're going to bet the house on a hurricane forecast.
John Zarrella, CNN, Miami.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 14, 2003 - 10:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Correct forecasting of any hurricane, speed and direction, can amount to the difference between life and death for people in the storm's path.
CNN's John Zarrella reports those forecasts are more accurate than ever now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): Max Mayfield is more than a little bit pleased.
MAX MAYFIELD, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: ... it was forecast to move right over Bermuda, even two days beforehand.
ZARRELLA: So far this season, National Hurricane Center forecasters say they've done an excellent job pinpointing where a storm will be up to five days before it gets there. They are doing better this year than anytime in the past because the science and technology keeps improving.
MAYFIELD: The satellite observation is better than ever. The aircraft observations are better than ever. We have a new jet that flies the barometer around the hurricane, so the data that goes into the models are vastly improved.
ZARRELLA: In July, the hurricane center forecast Claudette would cross the Yucatan Peninsula and take a hard left turn toward the Texas coast. It did. The forecast for powerful hurricane Fabian was even better. The storm came within a few miles of the forecast track as it passed over Bermuda. Now the experts face their toughest challenge.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Still a lot of different possibilities, but keep our fingers crossed.
ZARRELLA: Isabel, potentially a very dangerous hurricane, is closing in on the U.S. East Coast. The accuracy of the center's five- day forecast will be critical. It will determine who needs to start paying close attention.
MAYFIELD: If you're within that cone of uncertainty in five days, we don't want anybody to panic. We just want them to calmly think about what they might do if the hurricane stays in that forecast track.
ZARRELLA: Mayfield cautions, while their skills are getting better, there hasn't been a sudden forecasting epiphany.
(on camera): The experts all say figuring out where a hurricane will go is still an inexact science. These storms can do strange things. And forecasters warn, you may be making a big mistake if you're going to bet the house on a hurricane forecast.
John Zarrella, CNN, Miami.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
