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CNN Live At Daybreak
America's Voice: California Recall Vote
Aired September 29, 2003 - 06:32 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: It's time now for your daily dose of California politics. Arnold Schwarzenegger surges. He's -- well, you could say he's cruising past Bustamante in the latest poll numbers.
Live to Princeton, New Jersey, and Gallup Poll editor-in-chief, Frank Newport.
Show us the numbers, Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Good morning, Carol.
Indeed, things look pretty grim for Governor Davis and pretty good for Arnold Schwarzenegger. First, there's a week of active campaigning still to go, so things could change.
But let's show you our latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll. Basic question, first on the ballot out there in California: Yes or no to recall Democratic Governor Gray Davis. Among registered voters, it wins, but just by 55 percent.
But of importance, when we at Gallup winnowed the sample down to those we think are most likely to vote, we find that had a decidedly anti-Davis tint to it, and that's up to 63 percent. So, on the right- hand side, that's our best estimate of probable voters, a significant number of Californians, the majority clearly it looks like they're going to say yes to recalling Davis.
Who should replace him? Well, that's why there are those 135 names on the list. We read the top contenders, the ones that were in the debate last week. Here is the response. Among probable voters: Arnold Schwarzenegger, 40; Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat, 25.
COSTELLO: Wow!
NEWPORT: And then, Tom McClintock, he's a conservative Republican state senator, Carol, he comes in at 16.
So, right now, Arnold Schwarzenegger is looking pretty good.
COSTELLO: That's crazy, Frank! You know, everybody was complaining because of that debate, where Arnold Schwarzenegger and the rest got prepared questions. But did that debate help Arnold Schwarzenegger?
NEWPORT: It certainly looked like it did, based on what happened here. But you know what's interesting, Carol, when we look at the data, we actually asked debate watchers: Who won the debate? And it wasn't Bustamante. It wasn't Arianna Huffington, who was so verbal during the debate. It wasn't Arnold Schwarzenegger. It was Tom McClintock, the conservative Republican state senator. He -- well, 43 percent of debate watchers said he won, Schwarzenegger next, and then Cruz Bustamante came in at just 14.
But it doesnt really help McClintock. A lot of Republicans have been urging him to drop out of the race there. He says he won't. Republicans in our sample says he should, because Schwarzenegger still leads.
So, the debate didn't hurt Arnold Schwarzenegger. It looks like the net of it all is that it's helping his candidacy.
COSTELLO: That's just crazy numbers. All right, Frank Newport live from Princeton, New Jersey.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired September 29, 2003 - 06:32 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: It's time now for your daily dose of California politics. Arnold Schwarzenegger surges. He's -- well, you could say he's cruising past Bustamante in the latest poll numbers.
Live to Princeton, New Jersey, and Gallup Poll editor-in-chief, Frank Newport.
Show us the numbers, Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Good morning, Carol.
Indeed, things look pretty grim for Governor Davis and pretty good for Arnold Schwarzenegger. First, there's a week of active campaigning still to go, so things could change.
But let's show you our latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll. Basic question, first on the ballot out there in California: Yes or no to recall Democratic Governor Gray Davis. Among registered voters, it wins, but just by 55 percent.
But of importance, when we at Gallup winnowed the sample down to those we think are most likely to vote, we find that had a decidedly anti-Davis tint to it, and that's up to 63 percent. So, on the right- hand side, that's our best estimate of probable voters, a significant number of Californians, the majority clearly it looks like they're going to say yes to recalling Davis.
Who should replace him? Well, that's why there are those 135 names on the list. We read the top contenders, the ones that were in the debate last week. Here is the response. Among probable voters: Arnold Schwarzenegger, 40; Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat, 25.
COSTELLO: Wow!
NEWPORT: And then, Tom McClintock, he's a conservative Republican state senator, Carol, he comes in at 16.
So, right now, Arnold Schwarzenegger is looking pretty good.
COSTELLO: That's crazy, Frank! You know, everybody was complaining because of that debate, where Arnold Schwarzenegger and the rest got prepared questions. But did that debate help Arnold Schwarzenegger?
NEWPORT: It certainly looked like it did, based on what happened here. But you know what's interesting, Carol, when we look at the data, we actually asked debate watchers: Who won the debate? And it wasn't Bustamante. It wasn't Arianna Huffington, who was so verbal during the debate. It wasn't Arnold Schwarzenegger. It was Tom McClintock, the conservative Republican state senator. He -- well, 43 percent of debate watchers said he won, Schwarzenegger next, and then Cruz Bustamante came in at just 14.
But it doesnt really help McClintock. A lot of Republicans have been urging him to drop out of the race there. He says he won't. Republicans in our sample says he should, because Schwarzenegger still leads.
So, the debate didn't hurt Arnold Schwarzenegger. It looks like the net of it all is that it's helping his candidacy.
COSTELLO: That's just crazy numbers. All right, Frank Newport live from Princeton, New Jersey.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
