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CNN Live Today
Eight Days Until Recall Election
Aired September 29, 2003 - 10:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Now to a political star on the rise return, a CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is surging to the front of the pack among those seeking to replace embattled Governor Gray Davis. And the same poll shows Davis's odds of survival are slipping. Nearly two of three probable voters say they would vote to recall him. So let's take a closer look now with these numbers.
Let's check in with our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider.
Good to see you, Bill.
Let me ask you first off, how real are these numbers that we're seeing in this new poll? Because it seems just a matter of, what, four or five days ago the numbers didn't look nearly as good for Arnold Schwarzenegger.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: What happened was in those four or five days, there was a debate, last Wednesday night, and this poll was taken entirely after that debate, which some two- thirds of California voters said they watched. And the debate appears to have made a difference.
There was one argument Davis might have benefited from the debate, because it looks so much like a carnival. On the other hand, Davis was kind of irrelevant to that debate. Most of the debate focused on his record and how negative it was, and how everyone would do a better job, and how even his own lieutenant governor didn't defend him. He looked irrelevant. It appears from those numbers that he suffered and was the big loser in the debate.
Who won the debate? The people who watched it said Tom McClintock, the conservative candidate won, but they also said they weren't voting for McClintock, they are voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger. And they asked people who would you vote for to replace Gray Davis, Schwarzenegger was at the top with 40 percent of the vote. Bustamante the only serious Democratic candidate with 25. McClintock is splitting the Republican vote, but not enough to deny Schwarzenegger with the first place in this poll.
So the debate benefited Schwarzenegger, even though more people thought McClintock won.
HARRIS: That is just one of the reasons why we will never figure out Californians. Sorry, Daryn, that's a whole different topic for a different day.
so in the wake of all of that then, Bill, what is it that is left for Gray Davis to do?
SCHNEIDER: I think it's going to be tough for Davis, who is very well known in California -- he has been in office for over five years -- to convince Californians he's a good guy, get them to change their view of him. But what he can do is make this a one-on-one race between himself and Arnold Schwarzenegger, and he's trying to do that. One thing he's doing is he started running negative ads against Schwarzenegger.
Here's the one he's running right now:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Have questions about Arnold Schwarzenegger? So do a lot of people. He ducks tough questions. Didn't vote in 13 of the last 21 elections. And now, he refuses to debate the governor he's trying to replace. Vote no on the recall.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCHNEIDER: The idea is that if Davis can really go negligence ti on Schwarzenegger and make voters wonder how much do we know about him? Is he capable of governing, and especially if Davis can entice Schwarzenegger into a one-on-one debate, perhaps on "LARRY KING LIVE," or any other venue, maybe he can expose Schwarzenegger as unqualified, and perhaps get him to say something foolish.
My point is, it's going to be tough for Davis to win it, but Schwarzenegger could still lose it if he isn't careful.
HARRIS: Very interesting. And we only have just a matter of days right now until the actual election comes up here, the vote is actually taken.
What about for Cruz Bustamante? It's clear now that Republicans do seem to be -- at least the voters -- do see to have their minds made up now. They seem to be forming a line now behind Schwarzenegger. Well, if it appears that Gray Davis is not going to survive the recall vote, is there anything that Bustamante can do to change his fate right now?
SCHNEIDER: Well, Bustamante is kind of on the spot, because voters do associate him with Gray Davis. He's the lieutenant governor, though they did not run as a ticket. And he's in the awkward position of having to defend the no on recall, that is to help save Gray Davis, while asking people at the same time to vote for himself.
Bustamante was one of the big losers in that debate. He did not come across as particularly impressive, partly because he had the very ambiguous position and depending and not defending Davis's record. He was a loser in the debate, also Davis, as I said, in one other area, and Huffington, whose support went down. She's now below the Green Party candidate, Peter Camejo.
So the debate produced clear winners and clear losers, but the clearest loser was Gray Davis, the clearest winner Arnold Schwarzenegger. Right now, it looks like Schwarzenegger race to lose. He is a very focused and disciplined candidate. That's how he got to be a bodybuilder. You don't become a championship bodybuilder unless you have focus and discipline. So he's going to have to exercise it now in the final week of the campaign and not let Governor Davis and the Democrats trap him into making a misstatement.
HARRIS: All right, finally, here's your chance to be an expert, or prove your expertise here. How long do we have to wait for the next surprise?
SCHNEIDER: Well, in the final week of the campaign, I think it's going to get very rough. Schwarzenegger is going up and down the coast of California in a caravan campaigning, five press buses behind him called Predators 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. His bus is called "Running Man." He's going to be appearing with crowds of voters, probably very enthusiastic voters.
Look, with all these candidates running, anything could happen. Bill Clinton, I believe, is going to come back to California. They are hoping to drive up turn-out for Democrats and solidify votes, if not for Davis, certainly for Bustamante, so that if Davis is recalled, the Democrats will rally to Bustamante, but that's going to be kind of tough, because there's one issue that's really hurting Bustamante, and that's the law that Governor Davis signed allowing illegal aliens to obtain driver's licenses, and that seems to be doing both Davis and Bustamante a lot of damage.
HARRIS: All right, we'll see how it all plays out. Thanks, Bill. Good to see you, as always, Bill Schneider.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 29, 2003 - 10:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Now to a political star on the rise return, a CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is surging to the front of the pack among those seeking to replace embattled Governor Gray Davis. And the same poll shows Davis's odds of survival are slipping. Nearly two of three probable voters say they would vote to recall him. So let's take a closer look now with these numbers.
Let's check in with our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider.
Good to see you, Bill.
Let me ask you first off, how real are these numbers that we're seeing in this new poll? Because it seems just a matter of, what, four or five days ago the numbers didn't look nearly as good for Arnold Schwarzenegger.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: What happened was in those four or five days, there was a debate, last Wednesday night, and this poll was taken entirely after that debate, which some two- thirds of California voters said they watched. And the debate appears to have made a difference.
There was one argument Davis might have benefited from the debate, because it looks so much like a carnival. On the other hand, Davis was kind of irrelevant to that debate. Most of the debate focused on his record and how negative it was, and how everyone would do a better job, and how even his own lieutenant governor didn't defend him. He looked irrelevant. It appears from those numbers that he suffered and was the big loser in the debate.
Who won the debate? The people who watched it said Tom McClintock, the conservative candidate won, but they also said they weren't voting for McClintock, they are voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger. And they asked people who would you vote for to replace Gray Davis, Schwarzenegger was at the top with 40 percent of the vote. Bustamante the only serious Democratic candidate with 25. McClintock is splitting the Republican vote, but not enough to deny Schwarzenegger with the first place in this poll.
So the debate benefited Schwarzenegger, even though more people thought McClintock won.
HARRIS: That is just one of the reasons why we will never figure out Californians. Sorry, Daryn, that's a whole different topic for a different day.
so in the wake of all of that then, Bill, what is it that is left for Gray Davis to do?
SCHNEIDER: I think it's going to be tough for Davis, who is very well known in California -- he has been in office for over five years -- to convince Californians he's a good guy, get them to change their view of him. But what he can do is make this a one-on-one race between himself and Arnold Schwarzenegger, and he's trying to do that. One thing he's doing is he started running negative ads against Schwarzenegger.
Here's the one he's running right now:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Have questions about Arnold Schwarzenegger? So do a lot of people. He ducks tough questions. Didn't vote in 13 of the last 21 elections. And now, he refuses to debate the governor he's trying to replace. Vote no on the recall.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCHNEIDER: The idea is that if Davis can really go negligence ti on Schwarzenegger and make voters wonder how much do we know about him? Is he capable of governing, and especially if Davis can entice Schwarzenegger into a one-on-one debate, perhaps on "LARRY KING LIVE," or any other venue, maybe he can expose Schwarzenegger as unqualified, and perhaps get him to say something foolish.
My point is, it's going to be tough for Davis to win it, but Schwarzenegger could still lose it if he isn't careful.
HARRIS: Very interesting. And we only have just a matter of days right now until the actual election comes up here, the vote is actually taken.
What about for Cruz Bustamante? It's clear now that Republicans do seem to be -- at least the voters -- do see to have their minds made up now. They seem to be forming a line now behind Schwarzenegger. Well, if it appears that Gray Davis is not going to survive the recall vote, is there anything that Bustamante can do to change his fate right now?
SCHNEIDER: Well, Bustamante is kind of on the spot, because voters do associate him with Gray Davis. He's the lieutenant governor, though they did not run as a ticket. And he's in the awkward position of having to defend the no on recall, that is to help save Gray Davis, while asking people at the same time to vote for himself.
Bustamante was one of the big losers in that debate. He did not come across as particularly impressive, partly because he had the very ambiguous position and depending and not defending Davis's record. He was a loser in the debate, also Davis, as I said, in one other area, and Huffington, whose support went down. She's now below the Green Party candidate, Peter Camejo.
So the debate produced clear winners and clear losers, but the clearest loser was Gray Davis, the clearest winner Arnold Schwarzenegger. Right now, it looks like Schwarzenegger race to lose. He is a very focused and disciplined candidate. That's how he got to be a bodybuilder. You don't become a championship bodybuilder unless you have focus and discipline. So he's going to have to exercise it now in the final week of the campaign and not let Governor Davis and the Democrats trap him into making a misstatement.
HARRIS: All right, finally, here's your chance to be an expert, or prove your expertise here. How long do we have to wait for the next surprise?
SCHNEIDER: Well, in the final week of the campaign, I think it's going to get very rough. Schwarzenegger is going up and down the coast of California in a caravan campaigning, five press buses behind him called Predators 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. His bus is called "Running Man." He's going to be appearing with crowds of voters, probably very enthusiastic voters.
Look, with all these candidates running, anything could happen. Bill Clinton, I believe, is going to come back to California. They are hoping to drive up turn-out for Democrats and solidify votes, if not for Davis, certainly for Bustamante, so that if Davis is recalled, the Democrats will rally to Bustamante, but that's going to be kind of tough, because there's one issue that's really hurting Bustamante, and that's the law that Governor Davis signed allowing illegal aliens to obtain driver's licenses, and that seems to be doing both Davis and Bustamante a lot of damage.
HARRIS: All right, we'll see how it all plays out. Thanks, Bill. Good to see you, as always, Bill Schneider.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
