Return to Transcripts main page
American Morning
Battle for California: Schwarzenegger's Surge
Aired September 29, 2003 - 07:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: The latest poll numbers from California indicate Gray Davis's days as the state's governor may be numbered. Nearly two-thirds of Californians surveyed are ready to replace Davis with Arnold Schwarzenegger.
CNN's senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is here now with his insight in all of this.
Wow! First, Jeff, are the numbers -- pretty staggering.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well, even for a long time, polls skeptics, such as myself, they are eye-opening. The CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll that was taken between Thursday and Saturday, right after the debate, shows Governor Gray Davis in something of a free fall.
Now, you'll remember that the last numbers from a different poll showed the recall prevailing by a 53-42 margin. Well, now among probable voters, the recall would now win by a stunning 63-35 percent margin. That's almost twice as large as the margin of a week ago.
And among those seeking to replace Gray Davis, again, among probable voters, Republican actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is well ahead with 40 percent of the vote. Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, the one Democrat, trails with 25 percent of the vote. And conservative Republican state Senator Tom McClintock is third with 18 percent. The Green Party candidate, Peter Camejo, has 5 percent. Independent columnist Arianna Huffington: 2 percent.
One more number that could explain a lot of this, among probable voters, 24 percent approve of the way Gray Davis is doing his job, 75 percent disapprove. We are talking Nixon-on-the-eve-of-resignation numbers here.
Now, again, these numbers come from probable voters. When the poll asked the same question of all registered voters, the recall margin shrinks to 55-41, still a big lead, and Schwarzenegger's lead over Bustamante shrinks to 34-28.
But all of this suggests a decided shift in the landscape against Davis' survival and for Schwarzenegger. And notice this: The conservative Republican, Tom McClintock, has actually gained support since the debate. By most accounts, he was the most impressive of all.
So, all of the Republican endorsements for Schwarzenegger don't seem to be moving voters away from McClintock; instead, undecided voters have moved to Schwarzenegger. Bustamante has seen a lot of his support erode, maybe because a judge found he wrongly spent about $4 million in campaign funds, maybe because of an uninspired debate performance, of what, among other things, he came out for higher taxes.
COLLINS: Wow! So, what's the explanation here, in your mind?
GREENFIELD: Well, here's the first one we should never forget. The poll could be wrong...
COLLINS: Right.
GREENFIELD: ... particularly with respect to the margin. However, since this poll confirmed some of my hunches, I'll take a crack at explaining it.
First, obviously the debate. It was seen in California by 2.4 million households. This is a huge number, better ratings than the "American Idol" finale. Now...
COLLINS: No!
GREENFIELD: Yes. A lot of people saw different things in that debate, but what I thought I saw, and what the poll suggests most voters saw, was, first, a lively spirited exchange that did not persuade them that they had to stick with Davis. Second, they saw Schwarzenegger reasonably conversant with public policy. And as for the exchanges between Arnold and Arianna Huffington, you know, did he get too tough with this woman? Apparently, voters saw Schwarzenegger dealing with this in a humorous vein. They may even have thought that Ms. Huffington was the instigator.
Second, do you remember that three-judge appeals court that ordered the election delayed? And that was very quickly reversed. My hunch is it fueled the whole idea that the insiders, the establishment wasn't listening to the people. That this unelected court was going against the wishes of 1.6 million recall signers. I think that helped undercut the argument that the recall was an attempt to undo the people's will.
And last -- I'm going to repeat this again, because I've said it here often -- the recall itself is a very strong argument on its own. There's a semi-permanent discontent with politics in America. It's kind of barroom populous. And the big shots don't listen to us. They have all of the power, you can't fight city hall.
Well, the recall is a tool voters can use to do something about that impulse, and if this poll is anywhere near right, we're going to use it next Tuesday.
COLLINS: So, really, quickly, Jeff, what could change? We've got a week to go. What could happen in this final week?
GREENFIELD: If this poll shocks recall opponents and people with doubts about Schwarzenegger into thinking, holy magoly (ph), this is really going to happen, you could then begin to change the equation of who turns out. Right now, the people against Davis and for Schwarzenegger seem to be more likely voters.
So, if it galvanizes the opponents of this idea, maybe this could change.
COLLINS: All right, holy magoly (ph), we'll just have to wait and see.
GREENFIELD: That's an old New York expression.
COLLINS: Jeff Greenfield, thanks so much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired September 29, 2003 - 07:16 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: The latest poll numbers from California indicate Gray Davis's days as the state's governor may be numbered. Nearly two-thirds of Californians surveyed are ready to replace Davis with Arnold Schwarzenegger.
CNN's senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is here now with his insight in all of this.
Wow! First, Jeff, are the numbers -- pretty staggering.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well, even for a long time, polls skeptics, such as myself, they are eye-opening. The CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup Poll that was taken between Thursday and Saturday, right after the debate, shows Governor Gray Davis in something of a free fall.
Now, you'll remember that the last numbers from a different poll showed the recall prevailing by a 53-42 margin. Well, now among probable voters, the recall would now win by a stunning 63-35 percent margin. That's almost twice as large as the margin of a week ago.
And among those seeking to replace Gray Davis, again, among probable voters, Republican actor Arnold Schwarzenegger is well ahead with 40 percent of the vote. Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, the one Democrat, trails with 25 percent of the vote. And conservative Republican state Senator Tom McClintock is third with 18 percent. The Green Party candidate, Peter Camejo, has 5 percent. Independent columnist Arianna Huffington: 2 percent.
One more number that could explain a lot of this, among probable voters, 24 percent approve of the way Gray Davis is doing his job, 75 percent disapprove. We are talking Nixon-on-the-eve-of-resignation numbers here.
Now, again, these numbers come from probable voters. When the poll asked the same question of all registered voters, the recall margin shrinks to 55-41, still a big lead, and Schwarzenegger's lead over Bustamante shrinks to 34-28.
But all of this suggests a decided shift in the landscape against Davis' survival and for Schwarzenegger. And notice this: The conservative Republican, Tom McClintock, has actually gained support since the debate. By most accounts, he was the most impressive of all.
So, all of the Republican endorsements for Schwarzenegger don't seem to be moving voters away from McClintock; instead, undecided voters have moved to Schwarzenegger. Bustamante has seen a lot of his support erode, maybe because a judge found he wrongly spent about $4 million in campaign funds, maybe because of an uninspired debate performance, of what, among other things, he came out for higher taxes.
COLLINS: Wow! So, what's the explanation here, in your mind?
GREENFIELD: Well, here's the first one we should never forget. The poll could be wrong...
COLLINS: Right.
GREENFIELD: ... particularly with respect to the margin. However, since this poll confirmed some of my hunches, I'll take a crack at explaining it.
First, obviously the debate. It was seen in California by 2.4 million households. This is a huge number, better ratings than the "American Idol" finale. Now...
COLLINS: No!
GREENFIELD: Yes. A lot of people saw different things in that debate, but what I thought I saw, and what the poll suggests most voters saw, was, first, a lively spirited exchange that did not persuade them that they had to stick with Davis. Second, they saw Schwarzenegger reasonably conversant with public policy. And as for the exchanges between Arnold and Arianna Huffington, you know, did he get too tough with this woman? Apparently, voters saw Schwarzenegger dealing with this in a humorous vein. They may even have thought that Ms. Huffington was the instigator.
Second, do you remember that three-judge appeals court that ordered the election delayed? And that was very quickly reversed. My hunch is it fueled the whole idea that the insiders, the establishment wasn't listening to the people. That this unelected court was going against the wishes of 1.6 million recall signers. I think that helped undercut the argument that the recall was an attempt to undo the people's will.
And last -- I'm going to repeat this again, because I've said it here often -- the recall itself is a very strong argument on its own. There's a semi-permanent discontent with politics in America. It's kind of barroom populous. And the big shots don't listen to us. They have all of the power, you can't fight city hall.
Well, the recall is a tool voters can use to do something about that impulse, and if this poll is anywhere near right, we're going to use it next Tuesday.
COLLINS: So, really, quickly, Jeff, what could change? We've got a week to go. What could happen in this final week?
GREENFIELD: If this poll shocks recall opponents and people with doubts about Schwarzenegger into thinking, holy magoly (ph), this is really going to happen, you could then begin to change the equation of who turns out. Right now, the people against Davis and for Schwarzenegger seem to be more likely voters.
So, if it galvanizes the opponents of this idea, maybe this could change.
COLLINS: All right, holy magoly (ph), we'll just have to wait and see.
GREENFIELD: That's an old New York expression.
COLLINS: Jeff Greenfield, thanks so much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
