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American Morning

Battle for California

Aired September 30, 2003 - 09:37   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As California's recall campaign enters its final turn, Arnold Schwarzenegger has picked up two more key endorsements. And even though the election is just a week away, the race is far from over.
CNN's national correspondent Bob Franken live in Los Angeles this morning.

Hi, Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATL. CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

And what's so interesting about this race is because it's been so unusual throughout, throughout the entire period that this has been an election, the last week is shaping up to something a little bit more traditional, a two-person race. The two people are really not officially just the two people, but it seems to be going that way if the polls are correct. Gray Davis fighting to avoid the recall, and the man who looks like he may be pulling away from all the recall alternatives, campaigning against him.

And it is typical in many respects. It's getting very, very nasty. It's relying very heavily on television advertising. It will be kind of tough to see the programming through all the political advertising in the next week. There is an awful lot of charge and countercharge. There are demands for debates. Of course, this is a little bit backwards. It's usually the incumbent who's avoiding the debate. This time the incumbent is trying to get his challenger to debate him, and Arnold Schwarzenegger is saying, no thank you. So that's where it stands right now. It keeps changing every day. It's going to be changing some more -- Heidi.

COLLINS: And possibly one of those changes now. What are you hearing about reports that Arianna Huffington could be dropping out of the race this week?

FRANKEN: She's been talking that over with advisers. She has a huge 2 percent in the polls. She has opposed to the recall from day one. And now the question is, will she come out and drop out of the race, will she endorse somebody? Probably not, but confidantes that she may take her 2 percent and say, use it to vote against the recall.

COLLINS: All right, CNN's Bob Franken in Los Angeles, thanks so much, Bob.

And joining us now from Washington to talk about the recall race, CNN's political analyst Ron Brownstein of "The Los Angeles Times." Hello to you, Ron. Thanks for being here.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Heidi.

COLLINS: Is it over for Gray Davis?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, no. Luckily the voters get to decide that and not us. And in a state as Democratic as California is, you'd probably want to avoid saying over or never.

But what you see in these polls -- and really in his behavior -- is the weight he's laboring under. No matter where the recall has been in the polls, Gray Davis' approval rating among voters in California has never really been above 33 percent, 35 percent. Two- thirds or more of the voters consistently tell us they think he's doing a bad job. And one thing we've learned about elections, when you have most people in an election believing the incumbent is doing a bad job, whether it's George Bush as president in 1992 or Mario Cuomo as governor of New York in 1994, in the end, that is a very hard weight to overcome. So he is really pushing the rock uphill, faced with this enormous disapproval.

COLLINS: And we've been saying all morning, it's just a week away. What is he going to do in this final week? I mean, is there any strategy to try to save his job?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, i think you see the strategy. I think more than the polls, what tells you he is behind and feels he is short on getting to the 50 percent he needs to stop this recall, is the strategy of going after Schwarzenegger. I think, in effect, what the Davis camp is concluding and telling us is that they cannot get to 50 percent by changing voters' perceptions of Davis and by convincing them that he deserves to finish out his term. They have to convince them that the alternative is worst, to get those last few points. So you see them going on television against Schwarzenegger. You see them challenging him to a debate. Usually it's the candidate who's behind who is asking for the debate, and the fact that Davis is the one asking gives you a pretty clear indication of where they think this is.

COLLINS: So this is playing out kind of as expected, at least according to history.

But is it smart for Schwarzenegger to duck these debates? he said he doesn't see Gray Davis as someone he is going against in all of this.

He has literally not running against Davis. He has said, obviously, that he doesn't see Gray Davis as someone that he is going against in all of this.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, he is literally, of course, not running against Davis. He is running against the rest of the replacement field.

There is a slight risk for Schwarzenegger, in that the biggest problem he has faced throughout this election is the sense of concern among some voters about whether he is up to the job, whether he knows enough about state issues and whether he has the experience. So by not debating Davis, he gives some ammunition to that. I think they feel that through their steady performance in that very heavily watched debate last week, they answered enough of those questions, they don't need to take the big risk of debating Davis. I mean, there really is a roll of the dice for Schwarzenegger that he probably doesn't need to undertake, given where the recall is and given the fact he is probably -- almost certainly ahead now in all of the polls among the replacement candidates.

COLLINS: So what do you think? I mean, could the California recall actually start some sort of nationwide trend if other state constitutions allow it?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, there are 18 states, Heidi, that do allow recall. But in no state is it as easy as California to qualify for the ballot. That's one reason why this probably won't replicate very far. The other thing is that voters in California are more accustomed than voters in most states of taking matters in their own hands, from proposition 13 in 1978, to proposition 187 on illegal immigrants and proposition 209 on affirmative in the '90s. Voters in California have been very, very willing to take power away from the politicians and make these kinds of decisions themselves. Both after the illegal immigration and the affirmative action initiatives, people thought it would sweep the country. It didn't really happen. This may be a wave that breaks about as far east as Bakersfield.

COLLINS: All right, we'll have to wait to see about that. CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein, thanks so much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired September 30, 2003 - 09:37   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As California's recall campaign enters its final turn, Arnold Schwarzenegger has picked up two more key endorsements. And even though the election is just a week away, the race is far from over.
CNN's national correspondent Bob Franken live in Los Angeles this morning.

Hi, Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATL. CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

And what's so interesting about this race is because it's been so unusual throughout, throughout the entire period that this has been an election, the last week is shaping up to something a little bit more traditional, a two-person race. The two people are really not officially just the two people, but it seems to be going that way if the polls are correct. Gray Davis fighting to avoid the recall, and the man who looks like he may be pulling away from all the recall alternatives, campaigning against him.

And it is typical in many respects. It's getting very, very nasty. It's relying very heavily on television advertising. It will be kind of tough to see the programming through all the political advertising in the next week. There is an awful lot of charge and countercharge. There are demands for debates. Of course, this is a little bit backwards. It's usually the incumbent who's avoiding the debate. This time the incumbent is trying to get his challenger to debate him, and Arnold Schwarzenegger is saying, no thank you. So that's where it stands right now. It keeps changing every day. It's going to be changing some more -- Heidi.

COLLINS: And possibly one of those changes now. What are you hearing about reports that Arianna Huffington could be dropping out of the race this week?

FRANKEN: She's been talking that over with advisers. She has a huge 2 percent in the polls. She has opposed to the recall from day one. And now the question is, will she come out and drop out of the race, will she endorse somebody? Probably not, but confidantes that she may take her 2 percent and say, use it to vote against the recall.

COLLINS: All right, CNN's Bob Franken in Los Angeles, thanks so much, Bob.

And joining us now from Washington to talk about the recall race, CNN's political analyst Ron Brownstein of "The Los Angeles Times." Hello to you, Ron. Thanks for being here.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Heidi.

COLLINS: Is it over for Gray Davis?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, no. Luckily the voters get to decide that and not us. And in a state as Democratic as California is, you'd probably want to avoid saying over or never.

But what you see in these polls -- and really in his behavior -- is the weight he's laboring under. No matter where the recall has been in the polls, Gray Davis' approval rating among voters in California has never really been above 33 percent, 35 percent. Two- thirds or more of the voters consistently tell us they think he's doing a bad job. And one thing we've learned about elections, when you have most people in an election believing the incumbent is doing a bad job, whether it's George Bush as president in 1992 or Mario Cuomo as governor of New York in 1994, in the end, that is a very hard weight to overcome. So he is really pushing the rock uphill, faced with this enormous disapproval.

COLLINS: And we've been saying all morning, it's just a week away. What is he going to do in this final week? I mean, is there any strategy to try to save his job?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, i think you see the strategy. I think more than the polls, what tells you he is behind and feels he is short on getting to the 50 percent he needs to stop this recall, is the strategy of going after Schwarzenegger. I think, in effect, what the Davis camp is concluding and telling us is that they cannot get to 50 percent by changing voters' perceptions of Davis and by convincing them that he deserves to finish out his term. They have to convince them that the alternative is worst, to get those last few points. So you see them going on television against Schwarzenegger. You see them challenging him to a debate. Usually it's the candidate who's behind who is asking for the debate, and the fact that Davis is the one asking gives you a pretty clear indication of where they think this is.

COLLINS: So this is playing out kind of as expected, at least according to history.

But is it smart for Schwarzenegger to duck these debates? he said he doesn't see Gray Davis as someone he is going against in all of this.

He has literally not running against Davis. He has said, obviously, that he doesn't see Gray Davis as someone that he is going against in all of this.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, he is literally, of course, not running against Davis. He is running against the rest of the replacement field.

There is a slight risk for Schwarzenegger, in that the biggest problem he has faced throughout this election is the sense of concern among some voters about whether he is up to the job, whether he knows enough about state issues and whether he has the experience. So by not debating Davis, he gives some ammunition to that. I think they feel that through their steady performance in that very heavily watched debate last week, they answered enough of those questions, they don't need to take the big risk of debating Davis. I mean, there really is a roll of the dice for Schwarzenegger that he probably doesn't need to undertake, given where the recall is and given the fact he is probably -- almost certainly ahead now in all of the polls among the replacement candidates.

COLLINS: So what do you think? I mean, could the California recall actually start some sort of nationwide trend if other state constitutions allow it?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, there are 18 states, Heidi, that do allow recall. But in no state is it as easy as California to qualify for the ballot. That's one reason why this probably won't replicate very far. The other thing is that voters in California are more accustomed than voters in most states of taking matters in their own hands, from proposition 13 in 1978, to proposition 187 on illegal immigrants and proposition 209 on affirmative in the '90s. Voters in California have been very, very willing to take power away from the politicians and make these kinds of decisions themselves. Both after the illegal immigration and the affirmative action initiatives, people thought it would sweep the country. It didn't really happen. This may be a wave that breaks about as far east as Bakersfield.

COLLINS: All right, we'll have to wait to see about that. CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein, thanks so much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com