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CNN IN THE MONEY

Ford And Chrysler Announce Worldwide Layoffs; A Look At President Bush's Political Future; The Market For Counterfeit College Diplomas Is Booming.

Aired October 4, 2003 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANNOUNCER: From New York City, America's financial capitol, this is IN THE MONEY.
JACK CAFFERTY, HOST: Welcome to the program. I'm Jack Cafferty.

Coming up on today's edition of IN THE MONEY, from the catbird seat to the hot seat, we'll look at whether President Bush has too much troubles on his hands to win a second term.

Plus, imitation sheepskin, the market in counterfeit college diplomas is booming. We'll find out what's behind the surge.

And the thrill of the grill. Who writes this? We'll turn up the heat on George Foreman, former heavyweight champ and big name behind the kitchen appliance with some sizzles.

Join me today, CNN correspondent Susan Lisovicz, and "Fortune" magazine editor at large, Andy Serwer.

So everybody gets a very pleasant surprise on Friday. That would be yesterday when for the first time in eight months, the economy actually has grown enough to produce a few jobs. And that's good news, I guess.

SUSAN LISOVICZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's fantastic news. It's been the Achilles Heel of this recovering economy. And came in a week when you have two job cuts announced from Verizon, and two of the Big Three automakers. So, very welcomed news in the beginning of the fourth quarter.

ANDY SERWER, EDITOR-AT-LARGE, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: I hope it's not aberration. I mean it's so different. It is the first time in eight months that we created months. And you know, you loose 90,000 jobs in August and you gain 50 -- I'm getting a migraine looking at it go up and down like that. A lot of new jobs in the service sector, retailing apparently. And to me, that means Wal-Mart, you know, 1.6 million Americans and counting. So maybe they opened up a bunch of new stores. It's kind of tough to figure but there you have it, right?

LISOVICZ: And you got to keep it going. I mean it needs to be more than a one-month aberration.

CAFFERTY: Oh, absolutely. But traditionally, the jobs numbers are the lagging indicator in any economic recovery. And other economic numbers have been coming showing strength for several weeks and in some cases, a few months now. So it's not unusual for the jobs figures to perhaps come, you know, picking up the tail, as it were, and you know, if it's the real deal.

The other piece of good news was the unemployment rate held steady at 1.6 percent. It was expected by the all the "experts," in quotes, to go to 6.2, and it didn't. So, good news, at least for the time being, on that front.

Elsewhere, Iraq is beginning to look like a Near East version of the Wild West. It's weapons of mass destruction are still more rumor than fact. The U.N. economy hobbling along on crutches. The recently mentioned jobs report notwithstanding. In short, the last thing the White House needs right now is more trouble for the president; but they're getting it. More trouble is exactly what President Bush got this week with the Justice Department's investigation of an alleged Bush administration leak that exposed the identity of a CIA operative.

For more on that, we're joined by White House correspondent Dana Bash, who is going to give us a little idea about how serious this story may be long term, and how it's impacting the administration short term.

Dana, nice to have you with us.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Jack. Thanks for having me. Well, in terms of it long-term, it's anybody's guess. These investigations have a way of changing every day and really taking turns that nobody expects or sometimes petering out. But in terms of the way it's impacting this administration, just take a look at the transcripts or listen to any of the daily briefings of this past week.

Scott McClellan, for example, on Wednesday was asked about 90 questions in his daily briefing. More than 80 of them were about this topic, but he was on message. The watchword of this week at the White House was "cooperate." They're promising to cooperate. They say that the president is outraged. He even said it itself, that anybody would leak the classified identity of a CIA operative and they are saying that they are going to do whatever it takes to find out who did it.

And they got not only one request to hold on to any documents relating to this, but late in the week, on Friday, they actually got a request to send over any of those documents to the Justice Department. So this is moving very quickly.

CAFFERTY: You know there is nothing new to have posturing on the part of a White House that's under fire for some particular scandal on alleged malfeasance or problem. But the proof is ultimately in the performance. And critics of the president would suggest that, you know, why doesn't he just come out and say this is my administration, this is my White House. I'm going to find out ho did this and I'm going to fire him. This is a crime. This is not some minor trespass and transgression. Revealing the identity of a CIA operative is a felony in this country. Why not just take the bull by the horns and say this is my responsibility. I'm going to find out who did this and he's out of here?

BASH: That's what a lot of Democrats are asking. They say that the president in the 2000 campaigned to restore honesty and integrity to Washington and to the White House, and that he is simply relying on the Justice Department to look at this from a criminal perspective.

But the White House, it's interesting, is really trying to keep this whole controversy within the confines of the whole question of whether or not anybody illegally leaked classified information. They're not even going there, they're really deflecting questions about, you know, for example, why, if the president, you know, knew about this -- this whole issue came up in July. Robert Novak wrote his column about this in July. Why didn't he give this sense of outrage we're hearing then back then?

But they're being very, very cautious. Very careful to say that this is something that is being handled by the Justice Department and that is where it belongs.

CAFFERTY: It's the administration's Justice Department, we should point out too. John Ashcroft serving at the pleasure of the president.

Thank you, Dana.

BASH: That's right and -- good ahead. Thank you.

CAFFERTY: Good to you have with us. Dana Bash, White House correspondent.

That leak we're talking about, just the latest fire for the White House to try to deal with. If the Bush administration is reaching for the water buckets, the Democrats are going for the gasoline.

To help us understand what all this could mean for George Bush's re-election campaign, we're joined now by presidential historian Douglas Brinkley, who's the director of the Eisenhower Center for American Studies and history professor at the University of New Orleans.

It's nice to have you with us. Thanks you for joining us.

DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, DIRECTOR, EISENHOWER CENTER FOR AMERICAN STUDIES: Thanks for having me.

CAFFERTY: The latest "New York Times"/CBS News poll, troubling news indeed for the president, the latest poll. Sharp declines in both his handling of the economy and his handling of foreign policy. The problems in Iraq are well defined and getting worse, it seems, by the day or the week. The economy has been mired in a bit of a slump, coming out of a recession. Albeit, very slowly. But we got some decent news Friday in the jobs report, for the first time in seven months, 50,000 jobs created. That hasn't happened in a long time. My question, I guess to start this is, which of those two issues, foreign policy or the economy, will ultimately decide President Bush's fate?

BRINKLEY: It's going to be a combination of both, particularly after 9/11. Foreign affairs, if it's connected to national security affairs, has become and overriding American concern. But the economy is equally tied to it.

And the problem President Bush is facing is a problem, if you just cut back a year ago when the Bob Novak article appeared in the "Chicago Sun Times," Bush was very popular. The Novak article came and went and nobody paid attention to it. But now the war has become unpopular, it was not sold properly. People are feeling a bit tricked about the whole notion of weapons of mass destruction. Saddam Hussein is still on the loose. Our borders aren't necessarily safer. In fact, every day we're finding more stories about people that have infiltrated our country so...

CAFFERTY: I understand that. But at the end of the day, if 12 months from now, if the economy's rolling at 5 percent or 6 percent, 2 or 3 million jobs are created, stock market hitting all time highs, corporate profits back are on track, is anybody going to be really that concerned about whether or not they find a bunker full of weapons some place in the Iraqi desert?

BRINKLEY: No, but they maybe concerned if Saddam Hussein or bin Laden are still running loose. I mean they were the two targets, that the names that we're all waiting to get. And if they haven't been apprehended it gives the Democrats an opportunity to say it's not been a complete win over there, and Americans are still dying every day or every other day.

LISOVICZ: Professor, since you study presidential campaigns and administrations, this is a given though. The third year in a presidency is always the toughest in terms of popularity. No doubt that foreign policy and the economy are troubling issues for the Bush administration, but this is a given, that this would be at the lowest point oftentimes, in a president's popularity.

BRINKLEY: Well, you're absolutely right, and this is the kind of dark period that might go until about February or March that President Bush is going to have to work his way through. The dangers for this president right now are that the media has, seemed to in many ways, turned on him. He was the president after 9/11 that was untouchable. If you recall, just months after 9/11, Tom Daschle made some anti-Bush remarks and was booed by the media and the American people alike. Now, each of the the 10 candidates running for president are every day pummeling away at George Bush and some of the reporters that had given the Bush administration breaks are now looking for dirt.

So the heat is on this Bush White House now. And I think it's important that President Bush get out there and reclaim this candor and the authenticity of his message. That's what people like about Bush. They feel he's a straight shooter. Any time now he seems to be hiding in any kind of affairs, like the current CIA flap, it doesn't bode well for him. He's still very strong. He has he has 50 percent. And he can get that upwards very quickly, if the economy does a little better and a couple breaks in the Middle East.

SERWER: Right, Doug. I mean, you know, what they say, of course, is that no one pays attention to the presidential election until after the World Series. And they're not talking about the 2003 World Series; they're talking about the 2004 World Series.

But I want to ask you a little bit about 9/11, you mentioned it. I mean don't you think that this was such a significant event, like a Pearl Harbor. That it will carry the president through, particularly when he starts rolling out those TV commercials next year, which would suggest this whole notion that we're at war? Don't you think that will play very, very well and will be tough to beat?

BRINKLEY: Yes. I do think that. Remember, they hitched the Republican National Convention to being as close as they could get it to September 11. They're going to remind us of America being attacked. They're going to remind us of the heroism of the firemen and the police department of New York. People like Rudy Giuliani will come back for a standing ovation at the convention, I'm sure. And the memory of what's happened since Bush comes in, how the country has had to pull together, how so many people started wearing flags on their lapel and putting flags in their front yard.

And he's going to want to rekindle that sort of patriot patriotic burst that one felt in the first six months after 9/11. It's -- and we felt a second patriotic burst when we actually won the Battle of Baghdad and took over the country.

It's been simply the last month's -- the reports of the Americans constantly being killed and perhaps a premature declaration of victory on behalf of Bush. The so-called body bags coming back, and the fact when the economy is sluggish that people are -- the president wants $87 billion to build the streets of Iraq. You are going to have Americans who are going to say what about the streets of Gary, Indiana, what about the streets of Sacramento, what about the streets of Albuquerque?

CAFFERTY: Good. Doug, we're going to have to leave it there. It's an interesting conversation and the next 13, 14 months should be a fascinating story to watch. Thanks for being with us. I appreciate it.

BRINKLEY: Thank you.

CAFFERTY: Doug Brinkley, the University of New Orleans.

Ahead on IN THE MONEY, how to get a master's degree in the art of deception. We're going to look at a growing market in fake college diplomas and the smack down in Motown.

We will hear from an author who says the Motor City's biggest business is stuck in the slow lane.

Plus, George Foreman's latest hit. Find out how the former world heavyweight champ has scored a knockout in the business world by putting his name on a product that cooks. We'll be back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LISOVICZ: If you paid thousands of dollars to send your kids to college or grad school, you're probably not going to like this next story. This week, "USA Today" reported an alarming boom in the business of fake diplomas. For as little as $50, Americans desperate for jobs are buying phony degrees with seals from prestigious universities like Columbia. Or from schools that don't exist at all, like this one, North American University. Sounds familiar, though.

Joining us today to talk more about this is retired FBI agent Allen Ezell, who has investigated diploma fraud.

Welcome.

ALLEN EZELL (RET.), FBI AGENT: Good morning.

LISOVICZ: It's good to see you. How prevalent is this problem? Is it something that is a situation that's developed out of the Internet, out of the fact that we have such a weak job market right now? Is that exacerbated the problem, or has it always been with us?

EZELL: It's a combination of everything you've said. We've had diploma mills in this country since about 1835. But the Internet has made it just totally blossom worldwide in nature.

SERWER: Allen, let me ask you a question. There's two things we're talking about here. First of all, fake diplomas a counterfeit, which is just a counterfeit, bogus piece of paper. And then you're talking, on the other hand, bogus schools? Right? I mean they're two different things, correct?

EZELL: Yes, but really it's a little bit more simple. You have diploma mills, which are your fictitious schools or watered down schools to the point of being fictional. And then on the other hand, you have counterfeit degrees of legitimate accredited colleges and universities.

SERWER: So I could really go out and there at the Internet and get myself a fake Harvard degree, get myself a piece's paper that says I went to Harvard?

EZELL: Yes, sir.

SERWER: Because I didn't. I didn't go to Harvard, by the way.

CAFFERTY: You didn't?

SERWER: No. You can't tell.

CAFFERTY: I thought you did.

SERWER: Yes.

EZELL: Yes, sir, you could for less than $250. And some of those Web sites will even offer you a transcript and give you an 800 number or a secure Web site for verification of your degree for your employer.

SERWER: That's a lot cheaper than tuition and a lot quicker, too. Right, Jack?

CAFFERTY: You got it. I could have saved a lot money. Yes, sir.

LISOVICZ: I'm one of those people who actually paid half of my education; earned it the hard way. And I have a fake diploma right in front of me. This is -- I don't know if the camera can catch this. But this is the United States University of America.

CAFFERTY: There you go.

LISOVICZ: Has a nice ring to it. The document looks pretty good. How is it that something like 400 Web sites exists that do that? Isn't that illegal?

EZELL: Yes it is. But the problem is law enforcement today has so many other things on their plate. It has not been a priority. And a lot of these people have been allowed to exist. I think as a result of 9/11, people using fake credentials, be it drivers license, Social Security cards, birth certificates, there's going to be more attention paid to it. Plus some of the major universities are trademarking their logo and seal, and now they're using trademark statutes to take on these people that are selling the counterfeit degrees of the legitimate schools.

CAFFERTY: Let me ask you a question, Allen. If I own the ABC Widget Company and you walk in and hand me a diploma. Let's see. What does the intro say from a prestigious university like Columbia? In the interests of full disclosure, one of the producers of this program is a graduate of Columbia University. He also roots for their football team, which is a kind of a sad state of affairs. His name is Jake Novak. Please, understand, there are other prestigious universities in addition to Columbia, but because Jake is so over the top about this Columbia thing.

Anyway, back to my question. I own the ABC Widget Company; you come to me and apply for a job. You hand me this diploma that says you're from Columbia University. Can I pick up the phone and call and say what about this Allen Ezell guy? Did he really go there? What were his grades? How did he do? And will they tell me?

EZELL: Yes, you can pick up the phone and call the registrars office. They would most probably tell you to put it in writing, send it to them by letter or fax. Or, like a lot of our universities in this country, they have the same problem on trying to cut costs; they have gone to legitimate third-party vendors to handle that. So they will send you to the legitimate vendor. You will most probably have to put your request in the writing.

CAFFERTY: All right.

EZELL: And they in turn will then determine if that person did in fact graduate, if it's legitimate or not.

CAFFERTY: So the point being that you can find out whether this is the real deal or not? It just requires a little effort on your part?

EZELL: Yes, sir, it does.

CAFFERTY: OK.

LISOVICZ: What about -- I mean the fact is, it's terrible for those that earned the old-fashioned way. But it actually can be dangerous. People who put up these really advanced degrees, like say, a medical degree, a Ph.D. There have been incidents where people have literally died?

EZELL: Very much so. You've had fake medical schools in the Caribbean. I bought two MDs with transcripts, neither one of mine were in the Caribbean. But the postal inspectors paid $17,000 for their MD degree. The person who bought it actually went to the graduation, walked across the stage, was given his diploma, had his file put in the school's files. And when they did their search warrant on the broker in Alexandria that was selling these medical degrees to our own citizens, they found 92 graduates doing their residencies in U.S. hospital.

CAFFERTY: Wow.

EZELL: So it is very scary when you get in that type of a profession.

SERWER: All right. Allen Ezell, fraud expert. Thanks very much. Fascinating stuff.

EZELL: Thank you.

SERWER: Up next on IN THE MONEY, raw power. Hewlett-Packard's Carly Fiorina sweeps the field in a survey of powerful businesswoman. Find out whether her company has the chops to match.

And later, car trouble. See why Detroit's Big Three are getting smaller all the time.

Also ahead, from right hooks to leftovers? Ooh, that's good. We'll speak with ex-boxer George Foreman about turning his name into a name brand for selling grills.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LISOVICZ: Let's look at the week's top stories in our "Money Minute." Two of the biggest Wall Street scandals are the focus of a pair of trials that began this week. First, former Tyco CEO and $6,000 shower curtain owner, Dennis Kozlowski is facing charges he stole $600 million from his company. And the case against former CSFB banker, Frank Quattrone, also underway. Prosecutors say Quattrone destroyed evidence that would have highlighted the company's illegal use of hot IPO stocks to reward favored clients. Quattrone is vowing to make the unusual move of taking the stand in his own defense.

Consumers don't seem to be very upset about the economy these days. Consumer confidence in September hit its lowest level since the war in Iraq. The news was worse than expected and sent markets falling early in the week.

And guess whose names you'd find on that nationwide Do Not Call list? Some of the top telemarketing executives, that's who. The "Hartford Courant" newspaper discovered the names of 11 top executives at the Direct Marketing Association on the list. That, by the way, is a group now fighting the Do Not Call List in court and a delicious story, I know, for Jack and Andy.

CAFFERTY: I know. One -- just one note. I was watching the Frank Quattrone video. He looks like a piano player in an old cowboy movie in some saloon. Got that handle bar mustache, got that hair parted in the middle.

LISOVICZ: And he looks happy. He's smiling.

CAFFERTY: And he's grinning on his way in.

LISOVICZ: He looks very confident.

SERWER: And he's richer. You know, I understand his parents have been attending the trial. So, quite an eyeful for mom and dad.

But these telemarketers...

CAFFERTY: There he is.

SERWER: There he is!

You want to talk about these telemarketers for one second. What's interesting to me is that I just find -- you know, I don't get upset. Hypocrisy is a great American pastime, right?

CAFFERTY: That's true.

SERWER: I mean these people are hypocrites, right, of the first strike. And you know, that's who they are.

CAFFERTY: I thought you were in favor of the telemarketing.

SERWER: I like telemarketers. You see the...

LISOVICZ: But is it really hypocritical, though...

SERWER: Yes. It is, Susan.

LISOVICZ: ... if they say that the law allows you to call, but they, themselves, don't want to get the call.

SERWER: It's hypocritical, Susan. Don't you think, Jack?

CAFFERTY: But it still... LISOVICZ: Yes. I could lean that way as well.

CAFFERTY: It still eventually going to be decided by the courts, is it not?

SERWER: Yes. Yes. Yes. It's still going to go through, though.

CAFFERTY: We've had 50 million phone numbers registered on the list. We've had the Congress of the United States break the world land speed record in passing a law in one hour that says this is a good thing to have this list. And then we have a couple of squirrelly judges going, well it might violate the hama, hama, hama. And now, potentially, this thing could be tied up in court for a long time.

SERWER: It's going to cause all those people to loose their jobs, Jack. That's why I'm against; it's going to cause all the telemarketers to lose their jobs.

LISOVICZ: And you need those telemarketers because that's how you teach your kids phone etiquette?

SERWER: Phone etiquette. Exactly.

LISOVICZ: Just say thank you, and then hang up.

CAFFERTY: What luck the telemarketer is that calls the Serwer house on Tuesday at 6:30.

SERWER: Having a little fun with Mr. Cafferty.

All right. On to our "Stock of the Week." It's been a year since the Hewlett-Packard-Compaq merger deal. And the results of the partnership are still in doubt. While CEO Carly Fiorina was recently named by "Fortune" magazine -- rah -- as the most powerful woman in business, her company is facing some real challenges; including some less than stellar third quarter results.

A look at the HP stock price shows shares have risen steadily since the merger. But that's true of the tech market overall in the same period ever time. There you go. So is the company really in good shape and where does it go from here? That's why it's our "Stock of the Week." We want to talk about that. What do you guys think?

CAFFERTY: Is there a risk in calling her one of the most powerful women in business and confusing that with the performance of the company she runs? And the way I mean that is, they just announced they're going to fire 4500 employees. Granted they went through that big merger with Compaq. At the same time, I think, they're signing leases on a couple of fancy, new, corporate jet airplanes. And there's a question about earnings.

So I mean I wonder if there's a mixed message that goes out. And people are likely to get confused seeing her name as the most powerful woman -- one in America, saying oh, well, maybe I should buy some of that stock? Maybe not? SERWER: Well, you know, they put bad guys as man of the year or person of the year, or woman of the year on "Time" magazine. So, you know, it's just someone who has a lot of clout. And it's an awfully big company.

I tell you she's a very controversial figure, a lightning rod. And I've got to tell you, Jack. I'll be honest you. And some of it has to do with the fact that yes, it's true, she's a woman.

CAFFERTY: No!

SERWER: And HP is an old school company. You know, it's Silicon Valley, but Stanford, founded in 1939 by Messrs Hewlett and Packard, who are both richer than you know who. And there was some resentment.

LISOVICZ: Can this woman get a word in edgewise, guys?

SERWER: We'll let you talk about the woman CEO. Go ahead.

LISOVICZ: I don't know that it really says that much who's she's the most powerful woman in business. There aren't that many women at the top of the "Fortune" 500 companies. I'll give her this much, she is bold. She went ahead with that merger and that was an ugly, ugly take over battle.

SERWER: Right. It was.

LISOVICZ: And she had the descendants of Hewlett, right?

SERWER: Right. Yes.

CAFFERTY: Is the jury in on whether that was a great idea?

SERWER: The jury is out, Jack. I mean here's what's interesting about that, just quickly. I mean a lot of people said tech companies had to be specialized, that the big full service models, like digital equipment, you remember them, and all those others was dead. She made the company bigger. And now, it looks like, some of the other companies that are bigger, OK, like IBM, and you see Dell getting into all kinds of stuff. So maybe her idea is right. But a lot of people getting laid off and the jury is definitely still out.

CAFFERTY: All right. See what happens. To be continued.

Just ahead on IN THE MONEY, we'll talk to one expert who thinks Detroit's Big Three could soon become the Big Two, and maybe not so big either. We'll have more on the rough road facing U.S. automobile industry.

Plus, delivering the knockout punch on the bottom line. Former boxing great, George Foreman has become one of the best salesmen ever. He'll be our guest, tell us what -- how he became champion of the merchandizing world selling those little grill deals. Put your chicken on there, cook it right up.

(NEWS BREAK) (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LISOVICZ: Ford this week announced plans to cut more than 12,000 jobs worldwide, as DaimlerChrysler geared up for its own set of layoffs. Most of the Ford cuts will result from plant closures in North America and Belgium. Deals with the United Autoworkers Union have opened the way for Detroit's Big Three to slash as many as 50,000 jobs over the next few years.

CAFFERTY: And that word comes at a moment when the business climate in the American car industry is about as congenial as feeding time in a shark tank. The Big Three automakers in Detroit are attacking each other in a vicious price war. They are losing ground to rivals from Asia and Europe.

And, in fact, our next guest says the conditions are so tough that by the end of this decade we might be talking about Detroit's Big Two. Micheline Maynard is the author of "The End of Detroit: How the Big Three Lost their Grip on the American Car Market." And she's our guest now.

Mickey I understand is your go-to name. It's nice to you have with us. Welcome.

MICHELINE MAYNARD, AUTHOR: Thanks. It's a pleasure to be with you.

CAFFERTY: You know, they've written Detroit's obituary before back in the 1980s. They said, well, there's no way that American cars can compete with the Japanese. And, in fact, at the time they were probably right. The Americans were not building a particularly competitive product.

However, that's changed. They went to work in the engineering rooms and in the production design facilities, and they're putting, arguably, as good a car as is on the market now as are built anywhere in the world. So, is it premature to begin writing off one of the Big Three American carmakers?

MAYNARD: Well, I don't think it is premature, and I'll tell you why. We got a preview of it in August, when Toyota went ahead of Chrysler in American sales for the first time. And I predict in my book that by the end of this decade, we could see one of the Big Three change substantially.

LISOVICZ: You know, Mickey, one of the problems, of course, is the unionized labor, which is so expensive for the Big Three when it competes with its overseas competitors. But another factor really hurting them is these incentives. For September, for instance, I saw GM was giving away $3,039 per vehicle -- it was in September -- versus Honda. Nothing. Giving nothing away except, you know, low-interest loans.

You know, I mean, it just can't help them ultimately, and you see them again and again with, each month, these very aggressive incentives that consumers like but ends up hurting the bottom line. MAYNARD: Well, as Jack just mentioned, they've made so much progress in engineering, and they've taken a lot of cost out, and yet they're giving it away in these incentives, because the vehicles are apparently not what people are willing to buy without them. Just imagine if they were able to keep in profits the $3,000, $4,000, $5,000 in incentives that they're giving away, I mean, you'd see GM earning the kind of profits that Toyota earns.

SERWER: Well, Mickey, I think part of that is because of overcapacity. I mean, they're making so many cars and they have to get rid of them. They'll do anything to get them going.

I want to ask you a little bit about the car industry and how it relates to other businesses. I mean, aren't we moving to a scenario where the car industry is just like a lot of other American businesses, where things are designed here but made offshore?

MAYNARD: Well, Andy, actually, what's happened is a lot of production by the Japanese, the European and even the Korean companies is moving here. And I would argue that we actually have some of the best automotive factories in the world in the United States, with Americans building cars in America. They just aren't members of the UAW, and they aren't owned by Detroit.

CAFFERTY: When you, at the beginning of the conversation, said one of the Big Three, you didn't say it would disappear. You said it would change substantially.

MAYNARD: Right, I'm really talking...

CAFFERTY: Can I get you to explain that?

MAYNARD: I'm really talking more about another restructuring, another shrinkage. What I think could very well happen is we could even have a Big One. We could end up like Europe, where you have maybe one carmaker with 20 to 25 percent of the market, and then everybody else carves everything up.

You know, Toyota is within 100,000 units worldwide of passing Ford Motor Company, which would put it in second place worldwide behind General Motors, and I see the same scenario here in the United States. I think we could have a big player, and then several -- three or four even sort of mid-sized players, and then everybody else carving everything else up.

LISOVICZ: Is that a bad thing, though, Mickey? I mean, if there are a variety of companies -- say, GM is the last big one -- and then several other companies, is that maybe perhaps more efficient and better for longevity?

MAYNARD: Well, in the short term, it's going to hurt a lot. And, as you mentioned, there are a lot of job cuts coming and probably even more plant closings among the Big Three than have already been announced. But, in the end, if it results in companies that are more profitable, faster to the market, meeting consumer demands, with flexible manufacturing facilities, I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for customers.

CAFFERTY: It sounds like a given that you think GM will probably survive all of this. Which of the other two might fall victim to the kind of thing you're talking about? Ford or DaimlerChrysler?

MAYNARD: Well, you know, in Europe they're already equating Chrysler to Rover which BMW owned and had to get rid of.

CAFFERTY: Yes.

MAYNARD: And I'm pretty...

CAFFERTY: That's not a good thing, is it?

MAYNARD: Yes, I'm pretty concerned about Chrysler. I think Toyota easily could pass them, and then Honda even might go ahead of them. You could see Chrysler -- you know, a few years ago, before the merger, Chrysler had 16 percent of the market. They now have just a little bit over 11, and I think they could get smaller.

CAFFERTY: Wow! Interesting stuff. Mickey, I appreciate you joining us. I also should point out that you cover the automotive industry for "The New York Times." Mickey Maynard, who wrote the book called, "The End of Detroit," thanks for being with us.

Coming up, he knocked out dozens of opponents. Now he is socking away big bucks. George Foreman talks about his success in business, and the fact that he may go back into the boxing ring.

And later, military millions. We'll introduce you to an NCO who was home on leave and hit the lottery big, big, big time. Stick around.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAFFERTY: Households all over America, George Foreman probably best known as the guy who is making dinner tonight. Foreman's name appears on a popular line of grills with a two-fisted selling point. They're billed as low on fat and high on convenience, and he has sold a bundle of them. He also happens to be a two-time world heavyweight boxing champ. He joins us now from Houston, Texas, for a look at how a famous name can move a product big time.

George, good to see you. Welcome to our program.

GEORGE FOREMAN, BOXER, PITCHMAN: Thank you so much. I'm happy to be with you.

CAFFERTY: We'll talk about these grills in a minute. But, now, you're 55 years old. Tell me it ain't so that you're thinking about climbing back in the ring. What are you, crazy?

FOREMAN: Well, actually, on January the 10th, I'll be 55. And that's when I wanted to get in that demographic of 56 through 65...

CAFFERTY: Oh! FOREMAN: ... getting back into the ring, show everyone. I've closed down 45 and 55. Now I want to show the world that there's not a death sentence to any age.

CAFFERTY: But, I mean, isn't that risky business, George? Come on now.

FOREMAN: Hey, it...

CAFFERTY: You're no spring chicken. You know what I mean?

FOREMAN: It certainly is risky. I deny that not. But you go every year to the doctors, or every half year. You get all of these examinations, and the doctors say you're just fine. And a lot of guys my age, what are you going to do with it? You just go home and wait for the next year? No. I want to dream.

SERWER: Hey, George, this is a news program, so we've got to talk -- I'd like to just talk about some of your fights myself and get some pointers. But I want to ask a little about your business. There are a lot of celebrity pitchmen out there, a lot of famous people, sports figures who have pitched products. I don't think there is anyone who has been as successful as you. So, what do you owe that to? How come you're so good it?

FOREMAN: Well, you know, I love doing what I'm doing. I love people and people love me. I'm that guy you look out of the window, your next door neighbor, you see him pulling up his pants 1,000 times, but they never move. I'm just that guy. He reminds me grandpa. My baby was just born. He doesn’t have any hair, just like him. I'm just that guy next door that you always pull for. A lot of times I'd get in the ring, they were more afraid for me than I was for myself, and that's why they pull for me.

LISOVICZ: Hey, George, no question that the Foreman Grill is a favorite of Americans nationwide, but I have to compliment you on your suit. Very nice savvy dresser. And that is your latest pitch, isn't it?

FOREMAN: Yes. You want to make certain -- I'm visiting with casual male for big and tall clothing. I want all of the big kids -- now, some of these babies are coming into the world six feet tall. And they go -- we take them to the shopping center and we can't find any clothes for them, especially my boys. And I want nice clothes for young people and guys my age. You can walk in. The sleeves won't be too short. Everything will fit you and it will fit you nice. And that's what I'm trying to demonstrate. Athletes should look good all the time. Success, look like it.

CAFFERTY: Any of your boys want to get into the fight game? I mean, I'm surprised we haven't heard from any of them by this time?

FOREMAN: I've tried so hard to get them into the ring, but they keep going to get educated.

CAFFERTY: Yes, there you go. FOREMAN: As a matter of fact, I give them a sweat suit and they come home, it's just as clean. What are you doing? They said, "Dad, I can't mess up my clothes."

CAFFERTY: There you go.

FOREMAN: They get educated, and that's great. But I had one daughter to try boxing, and she was pretty good at it, Frida (ph).

LISOVICZ: And don't you have a daughter, Georgetta (ph), who is also interested in fighting?

FOREMAN: No, it's Frida (ph) George Foreman.

LISOVICZ: OK, Frida (ph) George, well, that's...

FOREMAN: And Georgetta (ph) I can't get interested. She works in television. She's got my name.

SERWER: Uh-oh.

FOREMAN: But evidently that boxing gene, she didn't pick up.

LISOVICZ: Well, that leads me to the next question. You have 10 children, five of them are boys, and they're all named George.

FOREMAN: George Edward Foreman.

LISOVICZ: Don't you think that's a heavy responsibility to bear? You know, an Olympic gold medalist, the heavyweight champion of the world, the most successful athletic pitchman ever? Isn't that a pretty heavy...

FOREMAN: It's a burden, but you think about it. I've been hit on the head by Joe Frazier, Muhammad Ali, Michael Moore, Evander Holyfield. If I'd have named these people the same, I wouldn't remember anything. I was making preparation for memory loss, you know?

SERWER: I think I've had it rough working with Jack and Susan.

CAFFERTY: Hey, hey, easy.

SERWER: Easy. Hey, why don't...

(CROSSTALK)

SERWER: Hey, George, have you ever thought about going into politics? I mean, I think you'd be a natural at it.

FOREMAN: I've thought about it, and it's really interesting. But I had enough with people pulling for me. I went to Africa. Hi, Ali, boom-ayeah (ph). I think if I ever live again, everyone is going to be pulling for me. No one against you. And once you get into politics, you've got one side and the other. I just couldn't deal with that again. CAFFERTY: Yes, maybe I'm just a victim of my own generation. When Johnny Cash passed away here a little while ago it got me to thinking about all of the recording artists that I enjoyed as a young man growing up. When I was a kid, I mean, we had -- well, you and I are close to the same age, but, I mean, the fight game was colorful, high-profile hero-type guys -- George Foreman, Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier. We had -- you know, the fights were huge events. Lennox Lewis is a pretty good talent in the ring, but, I mean, you know, quite frankly next to you guys, he's boring.

Who's going to be the next great heavyweight champion that anybody cares about to any great degree?

FOREMAN: We are looking for a hero now.

CAFFERTY: Yes.

FOREMAN: There has been a drought here. Joe Lewis was champion. Then there was a drought. Marciano (ph) was a hero, then a drought. Ali stirred up everything, then a drought. Then that Mike Tyson came on with this other kind of a hero.

CAFFERTY: Yes.

FOREMAN: But he's come and gone. We are looking for him. I'm searching for a heavyweight champion that I can get behind and pull for. We don't have anything yet, but there's something coming.

CAFFERTY: All right.

SERWER: All right, George, we're going to have to leave it at that. Thanks very much for coming on our program. George Foreman, the champ as always, and a champion salesman as well.

FOREMAN: Thank you so much.

SERWER: All right.

Coming up, a major promotion for an Army sergeant. He went from a working stiff to a mega-millionaire overnight. We'll explain.

And if you want to explain something to us, like why the show rocks and rolls, or why it doesn't, drop us a line. The e-mail address is inthemoney@cnn.com.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAFFERTY: Welcome back.

You know how the government's always touting the benefits of a military career, you know, Army of one? Well, for one man the Army has really paid off.

While on leave from his unit in South Korea, Army Sergeant Stephen Moore bought himself a lottery ticket down there in Fitzgerald, Georgia, where his family home is. And don't you know, the numbers came up and his ship came in.

Sergeant Moore will get $89 million before taxes; $89 million goes a long way at the PX. But a little advice: You'd better the money in the bank right away before superiors at the Pentagon use it all to buy a couple of hammers and a coffee pot.

SERWER: Oh!

CAFFERTY: Isn't that great?

LISOVICZ: Sergeant Moore is the most popular man in Fitzgerald, Georgia right now.

CAFFERTY: Oh, yes.

SERWER: You know, it's $89 million. This is better than working at Enron, right?

CAFFERTY: Yes, it is.

SERWER: I mean, you know what we should do.

LISOVICZ: Really.

SERWER: Let's get some more money for the troops. Let's, say, get $300 million from Dennis Kozlowski and you make him give it back. And then just divide it up for all of the people in uniform, right?

CAFFERTY: Not a bad idea.

SERWER: And there's a patriotic thing.

CAFFERTY: I know.

SERWER: It's the right thing. Come on, Dennis!

LISOVICZ: I just want to know, is Sergeant Moore going to go AWOL after this?

CAFFERTY: I wonder...

LISOVICZ: Is he going to go back to Korea?

SERWER: He's going to tell his C.O. what to do.

CAFFERTY: Yes. Well, can you imagine, though, all of a sudden you've got $89 million in your pocket, and the first thing you look forward to doing is going back to South Korea and peeling spuds when you got KP duty or standing guard duty out there along the DMZ?

SERWER: Yes, that's going to be tough...

(CROSSTALK)

CAFFERTY: Yes. I'd have to be exploring an early release, if you know what I'm saying. SERWER: That's called the brig.

CAFFERTY: Yes. Well, I guess it is.

SERWER: You know?

CAFFERTY: Time now to check your questions about our e-mail question of the week -- not your questions. Your answers, actually. See, we ask the question and then we depend on you for the answers. It's a two-way kind of a system we have there.

And our question was, whether the public schools needed to be fixed? And if so, how? And here are some of the suggestions.

Richard from California wrote this: "For health care, we are led to believe that Americans want more choices. But in education, the government wants one size to fit all. Centralized tests only leave teachers less time to educate. We should separate schools into different categories and allow vouchers to increase competition."

Sharon writes: "The school system needs to resume the responsibilities that used to be met by parents. With both parents working, we need to enroll the kids as 3-year-olds so that they don't start school too far behind."

And Joan in Pennsylvania wrote this. She says: "It's all the parents' fault. Teachers are frustrated, because they have little control over students whose parents don't hold their kids responsible for homework, their actions or common courtesy. Schools and parents need to apply more discipline"

And that brings us to this week's e-mail question of the week, which is this: Do you think President Bush will be re-elected next year? Send us your answers to inthemoney@cnn.com.

And on that note, I thank you for joining us for today's edition of IN THE MONEY. My thanks to the regular gang here, CNN financial correspondent Susan Lisovicz, "Fortune" magazine editor-at-large Andy Serwer.

We'll be back tomorrow afternoon at 3:00, if you're not busy watching the Giants game. They could be four touchdowns behind by then. Join us for IN THE MONEY. We will focus on Arnold Schwarzenegger's chances to become the next governor of California with all of the latest allegations about his past suddenly cropping up in the last days of the campaign. It will be interesting to see what chances he has with the election just a few days away. Or will the things cropping up serve as a distraction and derail his trip to the governor's mansion?

IN THE MONEY, 3:00 tomorrow afternoon here on CNN.

Thanks for watching today and enjoy the rest of the weekend.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com

President Bush's Political Future; The Market For Counterfeit College Diplomas Is Booming.>


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