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CNN Live At Daybreak
America's Voice: California Recall Countdown
Aired October 07, 2003 - 06:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: We want to talk more about polls, because if you do believe the latest polls, the recall race is tightening in the final hours. But you heard that Charles Feldman just said about polls.
Let's go to the man who knows. Gallup Poll editor-in-chief Frank Newport is keeping a close watch on the numbers.
What's your take on this, Frank?
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, of course, everybody is correct in saying this is an unusual, highly extraordinary election, so the usual polling methods may not be quite as accurate as they are in a presidential race. But we don't see the empirical evidence that the Davis campaign cites, for example, that things are tightening.
Let me show you what we have. There were polls last week -- the "Los Angeles Times" poll, the Field poll which came after our CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll -- all showing that the recall winning by a significant margin and Schwarzenegger being the top candidate on the second question.
Here are the recent polls that have come out. This "Mercury- News" poll here along the bottom here, done in conjunction with Knight Ridder and an NBC station in California, showed 54 percent support for the recall. People say, oh, that's lower than the 56 or the 57 from the previous two polls, it must be tightening. But this had a lot of different methodological reasons once we examined it. I don't think it's appropriate to compare it to the previous one, so I wouldn't pay a lot of attention to the difference between this and the previous one.
Now, this poll up here, the Stanford Hoover Institute poll out of Palo Alto, Carol, was done by Knowledge Networks, which has an unusual methodology, but it's credible. And it shows, of course, the recall at 59.
Both of these show Schwarzenegger still winning.
So, I don't see a lot of empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that this is tightening. It may well be. We just don't know. And that's why we're all going to go to the polls in California and see what happens today in the election -- Carol.
COSTELLO: Yes, and you can bet that's why we'll all be watching, not only here in this country, but in other countries as well. But we do believe your polls, because we know Gallup does a fine job.
And we wanted to talk about President Bush's approval rating. It's been slipping lately. Has he been able to hold onto his Republican base, though?
NEWPORT: Well, indeed he has. In fact, this week President Bush is going to go to a fund raiser in Washington, D.C., his home city there, and raise $10 million, supposedly. Look at his Republican base -- 86 percent support. It has been a little higher, 90 percent, but you're just quibbling there.
His loyal Republicans sticking with the president. Of course, the problem is he's just breaking even among Independents and gets very few Democrats to approve of the job he's doing. But the base is still there, Carol.
COSTELLO: All right, Frank Newport live from Gallup headquarters in Princeton, New Jersey reporting live for us this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired October 7, 2003 - 06:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: We want to talk more about polls, because if you do believe the latest polls, the recall race is tightening in the final hours. But you heard that Charles Feldman just said about polls.
Let's go to the man who knows. Gallup Poll editor-in-chief Frank Newport is keeping a close watch on the numbers.
What's your take on this, Frank?
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, of course, everybody is correct in saying this is an unusual, highly extraordinary election, so the usual polling methods may not be quite as accurate as they are in a presidential race. But we don't see the empirical evidence that the Davis campaign cites, for example, that things are tightening.
Let me show you what we have. There were polls last week -- the "Los Angeles Times" poll, the Field poll which came after our CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll -- all showing that the recall winning by a significant margin and Schwarzenegger being the top candidate on the second question.
Here are the recent polls that have come out. This "Mercury- News" poll here along the bottom here, done in conjunction with Knight Ridder and an NBC station in California, showed 54 percent support for the recall. People say, oh, that's lower than the 56 or the 57 from the previous two polls, it must be tightening. But this had a lot of different methodological reasons once we examined it. I don't think it's appropriate to compare it to the previous one, so I wouldn't pay a lot of attention to the difference between this and the previous one.
Now, this poll up here, the Stanford Hoover Institute poll out of Palo Alto, Carol, was done by Knowledge Networks, which has an unusual methodology, but it's credible. And it shows, of course, the recall at 59.
Both of these show Schwarzenegger still winning.
So, I don't see a lot of empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that this is tightening. It may well be. We just don't know. And that's why we're all going to go to the polls in California and see what happens today in the election -- Carol.
COSTELLO: Yes, and you can bet that's why we'll all be watching, not only here in this country, but in other countries as well. But we do believe your polls, because we know Gallup does a fine job.
And we wanted to talk about President Bush's approval rating. It's been slipping lately. Has he been able to hold onto his Republican base, though?
NEWPORT: Well, indeed he has. In fact, this week President Bush is going to go to a fund raiser in Washington, D.C., his home city there, and raise $10 million, supposedly. Look at his Republican base -- 86 percent support. It has been a little higher, 90 percent, but you're just quibbling there.
His loyal Republicans sticking with the president. Of course, the problem is he's just breaking even among Independents and gets very few Democrats to approve of the job he's doing. But the base is still there, Carol.
COSTELLO: All right, Frank Newport live from Gallup headquarters in Princeton, New Jersey reporting live for us this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
