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CNN Live At Daybreak
California Recall: Our Crystal Ball
Aired October 07, 2003 - 06:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: As weve been telling you, it is difficult to predict what will happen, but we're going to try.
John Orman is a political science professor from Fairfield University and the author of the book, "Celebrity Politics." He joins us live from New Haven.
Good morning.
PROF. JOHN ORMAN, FAIRFIELD UNIVERSITY: Hi, Carol. Can you believe we're actually going to do this?
COSTELLO: I can't believe the day has finally arrived. Do you care to guess what's going to happen?
ORMAN: Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to be elected the next governor of California. It's very simple. Celebrities monopolize public space in America. He seems to be leading the polls on the recall part. And I can easily say that I think Arnold is going to be the next governor of California.
COSTELLO: But, you know...
ORMAN: It's not that hard.
COSTELLO: You know, this is being covered worldwide, and many outside of our country say, how in the world could this happen? I mean, here's a guy who is charming, yes, who is popular, yes, who has the name recognition, yes, but he has absolutely no government experience. And here he is, what you say, he's on the verge of winning.
ORMAN: Well, that's right. Darrell West from Brown University and I, we wrote a book called "Celebrity Politics," and we thought we had reached sort of like the breaking point, where celebrities were getting into politics. But with Arnold's running, it looks like we've just reached the tip of the iceberg.
And so, celebrities have a tremendous amount of advantage in the U.S. electoral political system just by virtue of the fact of the way we cover celebrities.
COSTELLO: Well, let me ask you this. In looking at the bigger picture, Al al-Ribya (ph) is in California covering this race. They just had a panel discussion, and they compared the California recall election with the situation in Iraq. In other words, they really think that this is normal politics in America. Is it? ORMAN: Well, I don't think it has anything to do with the situation in Iraq, but I think it is very normal in American politics. The most popular personality has a tremendous advantage. You can go back to our first major celebrity, George Washington, and you work your way up through the various generals that have run.
But now, we have a disproportionate amount of media coverage for one candidate. I went back and looked at the number of stories in "The New York Times" when Ronald Reagan ran for governor. He was a major celebrity. As you recall, he ran in 1966. And there was about one story -- national story per month about Ronald Reagan.
Now, in "The New York Times," there are about 90 stories per month about Arnold Schwarzenegger, which is just incredible.
COSTELLO: How does that compare to the stories about Gray Davis?
ORMAN: He's not getting the same amount of coverage, obviously. And when he does get the stories, they're obviously very negative. But the whole recall process is something that many Americans don't have in their own state, and, of course, they're very fascinated by the coverage of Arnold.
COSTELLO: Well, John, I have to stand up for the media just a bit. There have been many negative stories about Arnold Schwarzenegger.
ORMAN: Oh, sure. But because he's a celebrity -- and I think the politician that he's most similar to is Bill Clinton. It seems like the more Bill Clinton got in trouble during his administration, the higher the numbers went. And we're seeing a very similar thing happening to Arnold Schwarzenegger. The more he gets in trouble with incredible allegations, it seems like his numbers are rising a little bit in the polls.
COSTELLO: Oh, I don't think many Republicans would like to hear you say that. But why do you think that is? Do you think that alleged behavior like his is expected in the Hollywood arena?
ORMAN: Well, many of the allegations are 20-25 years old, and they have to do with that period when Arnold was a wild and crazy guy. We have a few allegations that were more recent. But many voters are left with the situation, is this California smear politics, or are these allegations legitimate? And if Arnold wins, of course, we might have the scenario where a lot of citizens will say those allegations were legitimate. Let's see if we can another recall.
COSTELLO: OK, we've got to wrap this up. But what is your prediction on the next celebrity, big celebrity to run and perhaps win?
ORMAN: At the conclusion of our book, we said we're within 10 years away of having an election between a basketball player versus a football player, between a comic and a rock star, and between a film star and a TV sitcom star. You can fill in your own choices, but I think we're very close to that in America. COSTELLO: Unbelievable. And you're going to join us tomorrow morning as well, because by then, hopefully we'll have the results. Maybe.
ORMAN: I hope I'm wrong.
COSTELLO: I hope you're wrong -- well, I hope you're wrong in the end, too. But who knows? John Orman, many thanks -- joining us live from New Haven this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired October 7, 2003 - 06:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: As weve been telling you, it is difficult to predict what will happen, but we're going to try.
John Orman is a political science professor from Fairfield University and the author of the book, "Celebrity Politics." He joins us live from New Haven.
Good morning.
PROF. JOHN ORMAN, FAIRFIELD UNIVERSITY: Hi, Carol. Can you believe we're actually going to do this?
COSTELLO: I can't believe the day has finally arrived. Do you care to guess what's going to happen?
ORMAN: Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to be elected the next governor of California. It's very simple. Celebrities monopolize public space in America. He seems to be leading the polls on the recall part. And I can easily say that I think Arnold is going to be the next governor of California.
COSTELLO: But, you know...
ORMAN: It's not that hard.
COSTELLO: You know, this is being covered worldwide, and many outside of our country say, how in the world could this happen? I mean, here's a guy who is charming, yes, who is popular, yes, who has the name recognition, yes, but he has absolutely no government experience. And here he is, what you say, he's on the verge of winning.
ORMAN: Well, that's right. Darrell West from Brown University and I, we wrote a book called "Celebrity Politics," and we thought we had reached sort of like the breaking point, where celebrities were getting into politics. But with Arnold's running, it looks like we've just reached the tip of the iceberg.
And so, celebrities have a tremendous amount of advantage in the U.S. electoral political system just by virtue of the fact of the way we cover celebrities.
COSTELLO: Well, let me ask you this. In looking at the bigger picture, Al al-Ribya (ph) is in California covering this race. They just had a panel discussion, and they compared the California recall election with the situation in Iraq. In other words, they really think that this is normal politics in America. Is it? ORMAN: Well, I don't think it has anything to do with the situation in Iraq, but I think it is very normal in American politics. The most popular personality has a tremendous advantage. You can go back to our first major celebrity, George Washington, and you work your way up through the various generals that have run.
But now, we have a disproportionate amount of media coverage for one candidate. I went back and looked at the number of stories in "The New York Times" when Ronald Reagan ran for governor. He was a major celebrity. As you recall, he ran in 1966. And there was about one story -- national story per month about Ronald Reagan.
Now, in "The New York Times," there are about 90 stories per month about Arnold Schwarzenegger, which is just incredible.
COSTELLO: How does that compare to the stories about Gray Davis?
ORMAN: He's not getting the same amount of coverage, obviously. And when he does get the stories, they're obviously very negative. But the whole recall process is something that many Americans don't have in their own state, and, of course, they're very fascinated by the coverage of Arnold.
COSTELLO: Well, John, I have to stand up for the media just a bit. There have been many negative stories about Arnold Schwarzenegger.
ORMAN: Oh, sure. But because he's a celebrity -- and I think the politician that he's most similar to is Bill Clinton. It seems like the more Bill Clinton got in trouble during his administration, the higher the numbers went. And we're seeing a very similar thing happening to Arnold Schwarzenegger. The more he gets in trouble with incredible allegations, it seems like his numbers are rising a little bit in the polls.
COSTELLO: Oh, I don't think many Republicans would like to hear you say that. But why do you think that is? Do you think that alleged behavior like his is expected in the Hollywood arena?
ORMAN: Well, many of the allegations are 20-25 years old, and they have to do with that period when Arnold was a wild and crazy guy. We have a few allegations that were more recent. But many voters are left with the situation, is this California smear politics, or are these allegations legitimate? And if Arnold wins, of course, we might have the scenario where a lot of citizens will say those allegations were legitimate. Let's see if we can another recall.
COSTELLO: OK, we've got to wrap this up. But what is your prediction on the next celebrity, big celebrity to run and perhaps win?
ORMAN: At the conclusion of our book, we said we're within 10 years away of having an election between a basketball player versus a football player, between a comic and a rock star, and between a film star and a TV sitcom star. You can fill in your own choices, but I think we're very close to that in America. COSTELLO: Unbelievable. And you're going to join us tomorrow morning as well, because by then, hopefully we'll have the results. Maybe.
ORMAN: I hope I'm wrong.
COSTELLO: I hope you're wrong -- well, I hope you're wrong in the end, too. But who knows? John Orman, many thanks -- joining us live from New Haven this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
