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Could Arnold be Recalled?

Aired October 07, 2003 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Now let's get a look at the California recall election from inside the state's political machinery. Dick Rosengarten is editor of "The California Political Week." That's an insider newsletter specializing in campaigns and elections. And this is a week unlike any other California has ever seen before. Dick, good morning. Thanks for being here with us.
DICK ROSENGARTEN, EDITOR, "CALIFORNIA POLITICAL WEEK": Good morning to you, Daryn.

KAGAN: Let's get right to the predictions. What do you think is going to happen?

ROSENGARTEN: I will say this first. Pundits who use a crystal ball sometimes eat glass. But I am pretty much convinced the recall is going to go through, although I think the margin could be very close, something like maybe 52-48.

On the second part, at this point in time, you have to say that it's Arnold Schwarzenegger who looks like he might the winner. But, again, things are very, very fluid out here. These charges of groping and everything, they definitely have hurt his campaign. I think that he originally was in the low 40s. I think now maybe he's in the high 30s.

So we really don't know for sure. A lot will depend upon how many people go to the polls. I think there will be between 8.5 and 9 million people which will set a record.

KAGAN: That will set a record -- well, anything's record, right?

(CROSSTALK)

ROSENGARTEN: ... we have never had one of these things before.

KAGAN: Right.

ROSENGARTEN: And, you know, I don't know that this is going to be the last one, either.

KAGAN: Right, and I want to get to that in a second. But first I want to understand something because the way this is set up and what Gray Davis must get on the no vote for the recall in order to stay in office. It's entirely possible if Arnold Schwarzenegger wins that the winner will receive fewer votes than the loser?

KAGAN: Absolutely. So, for instance, let's say that Arnold Schwarzenegger gets -- let's say he just breaks 40 percent. But on the first part let's say it's 52-48. That means that Gray Davis got 48 percent of the vote compared to 40 percent for Arnold Schwarzenegger. And the question you have to ask is, is that fair? Does he have a mandate? The answer is no, he doesn't.

KAGAN: Well it's how it's written. And as we look forward, what's to keep this from happening all over again? If Arnold Schwarzenegger takes office, can't someone then just go and try to recall him?

ROSENGARTEN: A-ha. You've just asked the key question. And yesterday I heard political consultant named Eric Frego (ph) say that in fact the recall has now been added to the political arsenal here in California, and perhaps in other states which also have the recall. And we just don't know if it's going to be used or not.

But if it is, there are a number of land mines that -- let's say, Arnold Schwarzenegger is elected. There's some land mines that he has to be very careful of not to step on. No. 1, would be the Indians. You know during this election, he made a charge that the Indian tribes who have casino gaming here weren't paying their fair share. Well if he keeps that up the Indians, who are loaded with money, could go after him and they are the ones who could finance a recall.

You know, this recall wouldn't even be here fit weren't for Congressman Darryl Issa. He put in 1.7 million of his own money and that's all you need.

(CROSSTALK)

KAGAN: You know as a native Californian something caught my eye that I thought was very interesting. We we're just looking at pictures from Newbury Park, just north of Los Angeles. That's where Tom McClintock -- this is he's going to be voting, the state senator.

Now it makes sense that he would vote there because this is where he lives and this is what he represents. But when I looked down the list of the major candidates, Dick, Cruz Bustamante is the only one that's making Sacramento, northern California his home base for today. Everyone else is in Los Angeles. What does that say about the power struggle between southern California and northern California?

ROSENGARTEN: Well, I don't know if it says anything. It just says to me that this is where the media is, this is where the international media is. And if you want the coverage you've got to be here in Los Angeles.

Now, I don't know what that says about Bustamante or not. I mean if he's the only one up in northern California, he'll get his share of coverage, but the lion's share of media tonight will be here focused in Los Angeles.

KAGAN: And once again looking forward, so many people have made such a big deal about how crazy this recall thing is. But is it that simple to make it go away? What if you want to recall the idea of recall in California? How's that supposed to happen? ROSENGARTEN: How do you stop it?

KAGAN: Yes.

ROSENGARTEN: Well, I would hope that cooler heads would prevail, and that they would give Mr. Schwarzenegger, if he is elected, give him a chance to see what he can do.

I mean the recall -- I don't think that the founders of California, the one who came up with the recall, Hiram Johnson, ever intended that it should be used in this particular way. It was to be used for somebody who had really broken law and really done something terribly inappropriate.

Now, there are those who say that, you know, these allegations of sexual misconduct probably measure up to what he had in mind. I don't know if that's the case or not.

KAGAN: I guess my question is how do you get rid of the recall? Does it have to be a referendum?

(CROSSTALK)

ROSENGARTEN: You would have to go through an initiative process or the legislature would have to put an initiative on the ballot to get rid of it. I don't think that's going to happen, though.

KAGAN: Interesting. Well, it's going to be a fascinating day, perhaps, what, 39 days?

ROSENGARTEN: A long day.

KAGAN: Could be a month before we know what is going on there.

ROSENGARTEN: Absolutely.

KAGAN: Dick Rosengarten, thank you. Enjoy the day. We'll have you back.

ROSENGARTEN: All righty. Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 7, 2003 - 10:30   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Now let's get a look at the California recall election from inside the state's political machinery. Dick Rosengarten is editor of "The California Political Week." That's an insider newsletter specializing in campaigns and elections. And this is a week unlike any other California has ever seen before. Dick, good morning. Thanks for being here with us.
DICK ROSENGARTEN, EDITOR, "CALIFORNIA POLITICAL WEEK": Good morning to you, Daryn.

KAGAN: Let's get right to the predictions. What do you think is going to happen?

ROSENGARTEN: I will say this first. Pundits who use a crystal ball sometimes eat glass. But I am pretty much convinced the recall is going to go through, although I think the margin could be very close, something like maybe 52-48.

On the second part, at this point in time, you have to say that it's Arnold Schwarzenegger who looks like he might the winner. But, again, things are very, very fluid out here. These charges of groping and everything, they definitely have hurt his campaign. I think that he originally was in the low 40s. I think now maybe he's in the high 30s.

So we really don't know for sure. A lot will depend upon how many people go to the polls. I think there will be between 8.5 and 9 million people which will set a record.

KAGAN: That will set a record -- well, anything's record, right?

(CROSSTALK)

ROSENGARTEN: ... we have never had one of these things before.

KAGAN: Right.

ROSENGARTEN: And, you know, I don't know that this is going to be the last one, either.

KAGAN: Right, and I want to get to that in a second. But first I want to understand something because the way this is set up and what Gray Davis must get on the no vote for the recall in order to stay in office. It's entirely possible if Arnold Schwarzenegger wins that the winner will receive fewer votes than the loser?

KAGAN: Absolutely. So, for instance, let's say that Arnold Schwarzenegger gets -- let's say he just breaks 40 percent. But on the first part let's say it's 52-48. That means that Gray Davis got 48 percent of the vote compared to 40 percent for Arnold Schwarzenegger. And the question you have to ask is, is that fair? Does he have a mandate? The answer is no, he doesn't.

KAGAN: Well it's how it's written. And as we look forward, what's to keep this from happening all over again? If Arnold Schwarzenegger takes office, can't someone then just go and try to recall him?

ROSENGARTEN: A-ha. You've just asked the key question. And yesterday I heard political consultant named Eric Frego (ph) say that in fact the recall has now been added to the political arsenal here in California, and perhaps in other states which also have the recall. And we just don't know if it's going to be used or not.

But if it is, there are a number of land mines that -- let's say, Arnold Schwarzenegger is elected. There's some land mines that he has to be very careful of not to step on. No. 1, would be the Indians. You know during this election, he made a charge that the Indian tribes who have casino gaming here weren't paying their fair share. Well if he keeps that up the Indians, who are loaded with money, could go after him and they are the ones who could finance a recall.

You know, this recall wouldn't even be here fit weren't for Congressman Darryl Issa. He put in 1.7 million of his own money and that's all you need.

(CROSSTALK)

KAGAN: You know as a native Californian something caught my eye that I thought was very interesting. We we're just looking at pictures from Newbury Park, just north of Los Angeles. That's where Tom McClintock -- this is he's going to be voting, the state senator.

Now it makes sense that he would vote there because this is where he lives and this is what he represents. But when I looked down the list of the major candidates, Dick, Cruz Bustamante is the only one that's making Sacramento, northern California his home base for today. Everyone else is in Los Angeles. What does that say about the power struggle between southern California and northern California?

ROSENGARTEN: Well, I don't know if it says anything. It just says to me that this is where the media is, this is where the international media is. And if you want the coverage you've got to be here in Los Angeles.

Now, I don't know what that says about Bustamante or not. I mean if he's the only one up in northern California, he'll get his share of coverage, but the lion's share of media tonight will be here focused in Los Angeles.

KAGAN: And once again looking forward, so many people have made such a big deal about how crazy this recall thing is. But is it that simple to make it go away? What if you want to recall the idea of recall in California? How's that supposed to happen? ROSENGARTEN: How do you stop it?

KAGAN: Yes.

ROSENGARTEN: Well, I would hope that cooler heads would prevail, and that they would give Mr. Schwarzenegger, if he is elected, give him a chance to see what he can do.

I mean the recall -- I don't think that the founders of California, the one who came up with the recall, Hiram Johnson, ever intended that it should be used in this particular way. It was to be used for somebody who had really broken law and really done something terribly inappropriate.

Now, there are those who say that, you know, these allegations of sexual misconduct probably measure up to what he had in mind. I don't know if that's the case or not.

KAGAN: I guess my question is how do you get rid of the recall? Does it have to be a referendum?

(CROSSTALK)

ROSENGARTEN: You would have to go through an initiative process or the legislature would have to put an initiative on the ballot to get rid of it. I don't think that's going to happen, though.

KAGAN: Interesting. Well, it's going to be a fascinating day, perhaps, what, 39 days?

ROSENGARTEN: A long day.

KAGAN: Could be a month before we know what is going on there.

ROSENGARTEN: Absolutely.

KAGAN: Dick Rosengarten, thank you. Enjoy the day. We'll have you back.

ROSENGARTEN: All righty. Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com