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CNN Live Sunday
President Bush Announces Letter Of Intent Toward North Korea
Aired October 19, 2003 - 18:13 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. As promised, we've got more on North Korea. My next guest says new comments by President Bush may signal the beginning of a possible agreement. Jim Walsh is a political scientist at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. Jim, thank you very much for being here.
JIM WALSH, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Good to see you, Carol.
LIN: All right. Bottom line, the president has offered a promise to North Korea that it will not attack if North Korea starts working on dismantling its nuclear program. What does that really mean? What concrete can actually come out of a statement like that?
WALSH: Well if we step back, I think this is probably the biggest development in the North Korean issue since President Bush has taken office. It's not enough to get us to an agreement, but it is a first and necessary step if we're going to get there.
Now, what does it actually mean? Well, the U.S. diplomatic corps has a wide range of options. Anything from a verbal statement by an ambassador all the way up to a formal treaty that the Senate has to confirm. And what we're talking about here is something in between. A written document, not quite as formal as a treaty, but a written document that is cosigned, if you will, by the other nations that are part of the six-party talks and is a pledge that North Korea, if it abides by certain rules and regulations won't be attacked. So I think it's a major development.
LIN: But what good is it to offer a promise or an agreement or even a treaty if it gets to that point when, if North Korea is doing what the Bush administration is suspects it's doing, which is developing another nuclear weapon? They're already in violation of previous treaties. So what good is North Korea's word if there's another treaty signed?
WALSH: Well, it's a good question. Some would argue, how can you deal with a North Korea if it's violated agreements in the past? But North Korea isn't the only one who hasn't lived up to its obligations here. If you go back and you look at that agreed framework, that 1993 deal that was signed with the Clinton administration, the U.S. had promised full diplomatic relations, economic aid, a normalization of relations, a nuclear power plant, civilian nuclear power plants. None of that happened.
So this is a situation in which neither side trusts the other. The North Koreans don't trust Americans to follow through and vice versa. But the idea is, if we are going to get an agreement, we have to start somewhere, and the first place to start is to say, we won't attack you if you begin to step down that nuclear program.
If you don't have that, you have no place to begin, and I give the Bush administration credit, particularly Secretary Powell, because we don't hear the talk about nuclear blackmail and we're not going to do anything until the North Koreans completely stop their program. This is a more serious and a more realistic and hopefully -- likely to be more successful tactic.
LIN: How is Kim Jong Il, North Korea's dictator, likely to respond?
WALSH: Well how is he likely to respond? When you deal with the North Koreans, any sort of response is possible. Sometimes a positive development is followed by them acting, you know, negatively, and stepping up the rhetoric. And sometimes it's followed in a tit for tat fashion by some other positive development.
I think the best thing to do is not to try to predict North Korea's behavior, because you're always going to lose and let those negotiations, in private, at the table between the six parties, let that, let it work out there and not really worry what the North Koreans say in public.
LIN: Do you think what President Bush said was really a diplomatic signal to those who have greater influence over North Korea, such as China and Russia, to step up to the plate and apply pressure to North Korea?
WALSH: They've been part of the dialogue, particularly China, from the very beginning. I would say China, other than North Korea and the U.S., China is the most important player, has helped produce this six-party arrangement of talks that we had the last couple of times, and it will be a critical player as we go forward.
We cannot get the sort of verification regime, that is, the set of rules that will allow us to confirm that North Korea is rolling back its nuclear program, we won't get that sort of inspection regime without China's intervention and China's help.
So I think China is a critical player now and will continue to be so in the future.
LIN: Wouldn't you love to be a fly on wall at the APEC summit?
WALSH: I would love it. You can't imagine all of the things that are being said in private.
LIN: All righty. Well we're seeing what's happening in public and talking about it already. Thank you, Jim Walsh.
WALSH: Thank you, Carol.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Korea>
Aired October 19, 2003 - 18:13 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. As promised, we've got more on North Korea. My next guest says new comments by President Bush may signal the beginning of a possible agreement. Jim Walsh is a political scientist at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. Jim, thank you very much for being here.
JIM WALSH, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Good to see you, Carol.
LIN: All right. Bottom line, the president has offered a promise to North Korea that it will not attack if North Korea starts working on dismantling its nuclear program. What does that really mean? What concrete can actually come out of a statement like that?
WALSH: Well if we step back, I think this is probably the biggest development in the North Korean issue since President Bush has taken office. It's not enough to get us to an agreement, but it is a first and necessary step if we're going to get there.
Now, what does it actually mean? Well, the U.S. diplomatic corps has a wide range of options. Anything from a verbal statement by an ambassador all the way up to a formal treaty that the Senate has to confirm. And what we're talking about here is something in between. A written document, not quite as formal as a treaty, but a written document that is cosigned, if you will, by the other nations that are part of the six-party talks and is a pledge that North Korea, if it abides by certain rules and regulations won't be attacked. So I think it's a major development.
LIN: But what good is it to offer a promise or an agreement or even a treaty if it gets to that point when, if North Korea is doing what the Bush administration is suspects it's doing, which is developing another nuclear weapon? They're already in violation of previous treaties. So what good is North Korea's word if there's another treaty signed?
WALSH: Well, it's a good question. Some would argue, how can you deal with a North Korea if it's violated agreements in the past? But North Korea isn't the only one who hasn't lived up to its obligations here. If you go back and you look at that agreed framework, that 1993 deal that was signed with the Clinton administration, the U.S. had promised full diplomatic relations, economic aid, a normalization of relations, a nuclear power plant, civilian nuclear power plants. None of that happened.
So this is a situation in which neither side trusts the other. The North Koreans don't trust Americans to follow through and vice versa. But the idea is, if we are going to get an agreement, we have to start somewhere, and the first place to start is to say, we won't attack you if you begin to step down that nuclear program.
If you don't have that, you have no place to begin, and I give the Bush administration credit, particularly Secretary Powell, because we don't hear the talk about nuclear blackmail and we're not going to do anything until the North Koreans completely stop their program. This is a more serious and a more realistic and hopefully -- likely to be more successful tactic.
LIN: How is Kim Jong Il, North Korea's dictator, likely to respond?
WALSH: Well how is he likely to respond? When you deal with the North Koreans, any sort of response is possible. Sometimes a positive development is followed by them acting, you know, negatively, and stepping up the rhetoric. And sometimes it's followed in a tit for tat fashion by some other positive development.
I think the best thing to do is not to try to predict North Korea's behavior, because you're always going to lose and let those negotiations, in private, at the table between the six parties, let that, let it work out there and not really worry what the North Koreans say in public.
LIN: Do you think what President Bush said was really a diplomatic signal to those who have greater influence over North Korea, such as China and Russia, to step up to the plate and apply pressure to North Korea?
WALSH: They've been part of the dialogue, particularly China, from the very beginning. I would say China, other than North Korea and the U.S., China is the most important player, has helped produce this six-party arrangement of talks that we had the last couple of times, and it will be a critical player as we go forward.
We cannot get the sort of verification regime, that is, the set of rules that will allow us to confirm that North Korea is rolling back its nuclear program, we won't get that sort of inspection regime without China's intervention and China's help.
So I think China is a critical player now and will continue to be so in the future.
LIN: Wouldn't you love to be a fly on wall at the APEC summit?
WALSH: I would love it. You can't imagine all of the things that are being said in private.
LIN: All righty. Well we're seeing what's happening in public and talking about it already. Thank you, Jim Walsh.
WALSH: Thank you, Carol.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Korea>
