Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Live Today
Push For Middle East Democracy: Bush Means it This Time
Aired November 06, 2003 - 11:38 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's bring in Ken Pollack, a CNN analyst and Middle East expert at the Saban Center of the Brookings Institution. He joins us from Washington. Ken, good to have you here with us.
KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Hi, Daryn, how are you?
KAGAN: President Bush very adamant in what he believes is not just a blueprint for the Middle East, but for all countries around the world. Made a lot of references looking backward toward Ronald Reagan, saying when he was calling for the liberation of Eastern Europe, a lot of people said that he was calling for just a pipe dream as well, and proved them wrong.
POLLACK: Right, absolutely. And what the president is doing is laying down a broad vision. And I think it's a vision that most Americans have in their bones already come to grips with.
It's the fact that after September 11, there's a recognition now that the problems of the Middle East are very deep-seeded. What's more they're coming home to roost here in the United States. The problems of the Middle East are problems of economic and political injustice, they're breeding anger and frustration among the peoples of the Middle East. And that anger and frustration is being expressed in terrorism against the United States, anti-Americanism, failed states, rogue states, a whole range of threats that we have.
And dealing with these problems is going to require more than just going out and taking out Afghanistan, going in and taking out Saddam Hussein. It's going to require helping the region to fundamentally transform itself.
KAGAN: Of course, you can't have this conversation without talking about Iraq and what's taking place in Iraq over the last year. The focus on it, it has not gone exactly like this administration had hoped it would. And many people believing this is the make-or-break country and operation in terms of whether this spread of democracy will go throughout the Middle East.
POLLACK: Yes. I think there's no question about that, Daryn. And the president hinted at it in his speech. I would have like to have seen him put this more front and center.
You know, whether you wanted to go into Iraq or not, whether you thought it was the right war or not, the simple fact of the matter is that the entire region, the entire Middle East, is now watching to see what unfolds in Iraq. For the longest time, they basically had two options. They had the autocracy offered by their governments and they had the Islamic republics offered by the Islamic fundamentalists. And along comes the United States and a group of Arab intellectuals who come forward and say, We've got another idea. We've got another way of doing things, and that's democratization.
Well the U.S. is now trying to make that happen in Iraq and we're doing it with 130,000 troops and 100 billion of our own dollars. And so the rest of the region is watching to see if it can actually succeed. And if it succeeds, there is the chance that others will start to accept and start to move in that direction.
If it fails, every Arab is going to look at it and say, The Americans tried, they tried with $100 billion and 130,000 troops. And if it can't work in Iraq, there's no way it can work here.
KAGAN: He went to the other page in previous speeches he comes with the axis of evil. He has picked on countries that he didn't think weren't in the interest of the United States. This time he tried to pick countries that he thought were doing well in the effort to bring about democratic reforms. Mentioning Bahrain and Qatar, Yemen, Kuwait and Jordan.
An interesting list because if you go down that list country by country, these are very different governments and very different situations in terms of what it mean to the security of the United States.
POLLACK: Yes, absolutely. You know, there were a whole range of countries out there, some of them are important U.S. allies, some are less important U.S. allies. But virtually all of them have some relationship with the United States.
And all of them over the last five or six years have begun to recognize that they need to move in this direction. They've tended to do it for their own reasons, recognizing that their populous' are very unhappy and very restless, and therefore, they were going to have to make changes.
And the key for the United States, and I think the president did a nice job of that, is to encourage that, to press them forward, to keep pushing them in a direction that they've already started to go in. Because truth to tell, a number of these governments really just want to blow off steam. They just want to give a little bit to the people in hopes that will satisfy their craving for democracy and stop. And it's going to be up to the U.S. to keep pushing them beyond the point where they want to stop.
KAGAN: And just real quickly here, Ken, who do you think the president's audience was -- intended audience was today? Of course, he was speaking before the National Chamber of Commerce. But really, was he talking to the American people or was he talking to governments worldwide?
POLLACK: I actually think that he was speaking to three different audiences. First, I think he was speaking to the American people. He wanted to signal to the American people that he really does mean it this time.
And let's remember, we've heard this from the Bush administration. The Arabs have heard this from the Bush administration for several years now. And so far the administration hasn't really done anything about it.
So it seems like the president is finally saying, I really mean it this time. And be prepared because I'm going to start putting some real resources against this.
Second to the governments. And I think he was sending them a warning to the governments. I really mean it, and in the future, our relationships are going to be affected by how far you move.
And third, I think he was speaking to the people of the region themselves, trying to reach out to them and say, I really mean it this time, I'm really going to try to help you. And just watch, the Americans are really going to putting some resources behind this effort this time.
KAGAN: Well, the world will be watching.
POLLACK: We'll see.
KAGAN: Ken, always great to have you watch along with us. Appreciate your insight.
POLLACK: Thank you, Daryn.
KAGAN: Thank you so much. Ken Pollack from the Brookings Institution.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired November 6, 2003 - 11:38 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's bring in Ken Pollack, a CNN analyst and Middle East expert at the Saban Center of the Brookings Institution. He joins us from Washington. Ken, good to have you here with us.
KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Hi, Daryn, how are you?
KAGAN: President Bush very adamant in what he believes is not just a blueprint for the Middle East, but for all countries around the world. Made a lot of references looking backward toward Ronald Reagan, saying when he was calling for the liberation of Eastern Europe, a lot of people said that he was calling for just a pipe dream as well, and proved them wrong.
POLLACK: Right, absolutely. And what the president is doing is laying down a broad vision. And I think it's a vision that most Americans have in their bones already come to grips with.
It's the fact that after September 11, there's a recognition now that the problems of the Middle East are very deep-seeded. What's more they're coming home to roost here in the United States. The problems of the Middle East are problems of economic and political injustice, they're breeding anger and frustration among the peoples of the Middle East. And that anger and frustration is being expressed in terrorism against the United States, anti-Americanism, failed states, rogue states, a whole range of threats that we have.
And dealing with these problems is going to require more than just going out and taking out Afghanistan, going in and taking out Saddam Hussein. It's going to require helping the region to fundamentally transform itself.
KAGAN: Of course, you can't have this conversation without talking about Iraq and what's taking place in Iraq over the last year. The focus on it, it has not gone exactly like this administration had hoped it would. And many people believing this is the make-or-break country and operation in terms of whether this spread of democracy will go throughout the Middle East.
POLLACK: Yes. I think there's no question about that, Daryn. And the president hinted at it in his speech. I would have like to have seen him put this more front and center.
You know, whether you wanted to go into Iraq or not, whether you thought it was the right war or not, the simple fact of the matter is that the entire region, the entire Middle East, is now watching to see what unfolds in Iraq. For the longest time, they basically had two options. They had the autocracy offered by their governments and they had the Islamic republics offered by the Islamic fundamentalists. And along comes the United States and a group of Arab intellectuals who come forward and say, We've got another idea. We've got another way of doing things, and that's democratization.
Well the U.S. is now trying to make that happen in Iraq and we're doing it with 130,000 troops and 100 billion of our own dollars. And so the rest of the region is watching to see if it can actually succeed. And if it succeeds, there is the chance that others will start to accept and start to move in that direction.
If it fails, every Arab is going to look at it and say, The Americans tried, they tried with $100 billion and 130,000 troops. And if it can't work in Iraq, there's no way it can work here.
KAGAN: He went to the other page in previous speeches he comes with the axis of evil. He has picked on countries that he didn't think weren't in the interest of the United States. This time he tried to pick countries that he thought were doing well in the effort to bring about democratic reforms. Mentioning Bahrain and Qatar, Yemen, Kuwait and Jordan.
An interesting list because if you go down that list country by country, these are very different governments and very different situations in terms of what it mean to the security of the United States.
POLLACK: Yes, absolutely. You know, there were a whole range of countries out there, some of them are important U.S. allies, some are less important U.S. allies. But virtually all of them have some relationship with the United States.
And all of them over the last five or six years have begun to recognize that they need to move in this direction. They've tended to do it for their own reasons, recognizing that their populous' are very unhappy and very restless, and therefore, they were going to have to make changes.
And the key for the United States, and I think the president did a nice job of that, is to encourage that, to press them forward, to keep pushing them in a direction that they've already started to go in. Because truth to tell, a number of these governments really just want to blow off steam. They just want to give a little bit to the people in hopes that will satisfy their craving for democracy and stop. And it's going to be up to the U.S. to keep pushing them beyond the point where they want to stop.
KAGAN: And just real quickly here, Ken, who do you think the president's audience was -- intended audience was today? Of course, he was speaking before the National Chamber of Commerce. But really, was he talking to the American people or was he talking to governments worldwide?
POLLACK: I actually think that he was speaking to three different audiences. First, I think he was speaking to the American people. He wanted to signal to the American people that he really does mean it this time.
And let's remember, we've heard this from the Bush administration. The Arabs have heard this from the Bush administration for several years now. And so far the administration hasn't really done anything about it.
So it seems like the president is finally saying, I really mean it this time. And be prepared because I'm going to start putting some real resources against this.
Second to the governments. And I think he was sending them a warning to the governments. I really mean it, and in the future, our relationships are going to be affected by how far you move.
And third, I think he was speaking to the people of the region themselves, trying to reach out to them and say, I really mean it this time, I'm really going to try to help you. And just watch, the Americans are really going to putting some resources behind this effort this time.
KAGAN: Well, the world will be watching.
POLLACK: We'll see.
KAGAN: Ken, always great to have you watch along with us. Appreciate your insight.
POLLACK: Thank you, Daryn.
KAGAN: Thank you so much. Ken Pollack from the Brookings Institution.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
