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CNN Live At Daybreak

America's Voice: Latest Polls

Aired November 14, 2003 - 06:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: With all of this going on, we wondered how Americans think President Bush is doing. So, let's head live to Princeton, New Jersey, to find out. Gallup Poll editor-in- chief Frank Newport is there, as usual.
So, Frank, what is the president's approval rating this morning?

FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, the answer to that is 51 percent. That's down a little. It had been at 54 percent.

But generally, Carol, the president is operating in a range between about 50 and 56 percent over the last several months since the summer. Here's the last five times we've tracked it: 55, 56, 53, 54 and now down a little at 51 percent. The all-time low for his administration came in September, and that was 50 percent.

Remember, for an incumbent, to be above 50 percent is where you want to be, and so far Bush is just barely above that. We'll see where this goes.

Now, another issue is the Democrats. Of course, it's a political year -- a little less now, believe it or not, than a year before the election. No front runner yet. That's the bottom line here.

We keep saying this, Carol, but every time we ask Democrats whom they want to be their nominee, we find Dean's ahead by two points, Lieberman, Clark, Gephardt -- you see the list here -- and then, John Kerry at 10 percent. But none of these have really broken out of the pack, particularly Dean, who people think is the front runner because of other things like fund raising. But nationally, Democrats just aren't focusing and they're not really changing their minds much -- Carol.

COSTELLO: So, how does President Bush stack up against the Democrats?

NEWPORT: Well, we did that. We did heads-to-heads, Bush versus Dean, Bush versus Gephardt and so forth. Bush beats them all when we do these hypothetical trial heats at differing margins.

Actually, retired General Wesley Clark does best. That plus three means that Bush would beat him in a hypothetical trial heat election, if it were today, by three points. Bush beats them all. Notice Dean actually doesn't do quite as well as some of the others.

One reason Clark may do well is he's identified earlier in the survey as retired General Wesley Clark, and that may make voters a little more likely to say they'd vote for him, given this early stage of the election -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Thanks. Frank Newport live from Princeton, New Jersey, this morning.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.







Aired November 14, 2003 - 06:35   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: With all of this going on, we wondered how Americans think President Bush is doing. So, let's head live to Princeton, New Jersey, to find out. Gallup Poll editor-in- chief Frank Newport is there, as usual.
So, Frank, what is the president's approval rating this morning?

FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, the answer to that is 51 percent. That's down a little. It had been at 54 percent.

But generally, Carol, the president is operating in a range between about 50 and 56 percent over the last several months since the summer. Here's the last five times we've tracked it: 55, 56, 53, 54 and now down a little at 51 percent. The all-time low for his administration came in September, and that was 50 percent.

Remember, for an incumbent, to be above 50 percent is where you want to be, and so far Bush is just barely above that. We'll see where this goes.

Now, another issue is the Democrats. Of course, it's a political year -- a little less now, believe it or not, than a year before the election. No front runner yet. That's the bottom line here.

We keep saying this, Carol, but every time we ask Democrats whom they want to be their nominee, we find Dean's ahead by two points, Lieberman, Clark, Gephardt -- you see the list here -- and then, John Kerry at 10 percent. But none of these have really broken out of the pack, particularly Dean, who people think is the front runner because of other things like fund raising. But nationally, Democrats just aren't focusing and they're not really changing their minds much -- Carol.

COSTELLO: So, how does President Bush stack up against the Democrats?

NEWPORT: Well, we did that. We did heads-to-heads, Bush versus Dean, Bush versus Gephardt and so forth. Bush beats them all when we do these hypothetical trial heats at differing margins.

Actually, retired General Wesley Clark does best. That plus three means that Bush would beat him in a hypothetical trial heat election, if it were today, by three points. Bush beats them all. Notice Dean actually doesn't do quite as well as some of the others.

One reason Clark may do well is he's identified earlier in the survey as retired General Wesley Clark, and that may make voters a little more likely to say they'd vote for him, given this early stage of the election -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Thanks. Frank Newport live from Princeton, New Jersey, this morning.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.