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CNN Saturday Morning News

Interview with Bathsheba Crocker

Aired November 15, 2003 - 07:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THOMAS ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Electing leaders and coming up with a constitution, both are very big issues facing all parties involved in rebuilding Iraq.
Here to talk more about the problems and the possibilities that are poised in the reconstruction efforts is Bathsheba Crocker. She is a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Bathsheba, good morning. Thanks for being with us.

BATHSHEBA CROCKER, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Good morning.

ROBERTS: All right, let's start off first talking about the possibility of elections being held before a constitution is actually drafted. Why a shift we're hearing now from the Bush administration, and do you think it's actually a smart move?

CROCKER: Well, I think the latest that we're hearing, if you believe the papers this morning, is actually that rather than elections, they will hold a series of town meetings. And those town meetings, from those town meetings, delegates will be selected to a provisional government.

Not completely dissimilar from elections, it's still the same idea of having a -- having some sort of a selection process before the constitution is drafted.

And I think in this instance, it is actually a wise move. The administration has had to change its plans somewhat on the transfer of power to Iraqis, hoping to speed up that process. And I think the important thing here is that they're looking to a method that will allow Iraqis to participate in some way in choosing a provisional government, and that provisional government will then oversee things like drafting election -- drafting a constitution and holding elections.

ROBERTS: Bathsheba, as you point out, it's hard to know exactly what direction is going to be taking place here, but again, we wait to hear from Jalal Talabani, who is the head of the Iraqi Governing Council. He met with Paul Bremer this morning after his trip to Washington, D.C., and we expect to hear from them shortly, at least we hope to.

But in regard to the trust issue that they have, there is a big trust issue that needs to be established, I guess, when it comes to Americans and Iraqis, because if they do go ahead, have these so- called town hall meetings or move ahead with the elections, there's really no guarantee that some type of Iraqi extremists wouldn't be voted into power.

CROCKER: Well, I think that's right, and that's one of the major concerns. And I understand that that is one reason that Ambassador Bremer has been somewhat concerned about the idea of holding elections before a provisional government, precisely because, I think, in many other of these post-conflict situations, it has been shown that if you hold elections too early, it does tend to just lead to the election of the extremists or the radical elements of the society or, in this case, also, perhaps, some of the exile leaders, who are just more organized than other parts of the Iraqi society.

And one of the things that will be particularly important for the choosing of a provisional government, however they decide to get there, is that that provisional government be seen as more legitimate than the Governing Council has been. And the Governing Council has suffered from the beginning because it has been seen as just being a body that was handpicked by the United States and therefore does not have that much legitimacy within Iraq.

ROBERTS: Also, do you make much significance of Paul Bremer coming back to Washington, D.C., quickly during the week, and now returning to Iraq to have these meetings, especially after Richard Armitage was in Iraqi last weekend?

CROCKER: Well, there has been a lot of so-called shuttle diplomacy, I think, back and forth between officials to Baghdad and then Baghdad officials back to Washington. I think it was very significant that Ambassador Bremer came back to Washington this week and seemed to do so on a rather urgent basis.

And I think that it showed that the administration was really, I think for the first time, making a more direct link between the political transition process and what is happening on the security front in Iraq, and, in other words, realizing that if they found a way to have a political transition process that might be more acceptable to the Iraqi people, it might go some way toward winning more favor among the Iraqis and tamping down a bit on the rising resistance there.

ROBERTS: Bathsheba, we appreciate your insight. Bathsheba Crocker, she's a fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Again, thank you for your time this morning.

CROCKER: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 15, 2003 - 07:17   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THOMAS ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Electing leaders and coming up with a constitution, both are very big issues facing all parties involved in rebuilding Iraq.
Here to talk more about the problems and the possibilities that are poised in the reconstruction efforts is Bathsheba Crocker. She is a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Bathsheba, good morning. Thanks for being with us.

BATHSHEBA CROCKER, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Good morning.

ROBERTS: All right, let's start off first talking about the possibility of elections being held before a constitution is actually drafted. Why a shift we're hearing now from the Bush administration, and do you think it's actually a smart move?

CROCKER: Well, I think the latest that we're hearing, if you believe the papers this morning, is actually that rather than elections, they will hold a series of town meetings. And those town meetings, from those town meetings, delegates will be selected to a provisional government.

Not completely dissimilar from elections, it's still the same idea of having a -- having some sort of a selection process before the constitution is drafted.

And I think in this instance, it is actually a wise move. The administration has had to change its plans somewhat on the transfer of power to Iraqis, hoping to speed up that process. And I think the important thing here is that they're looking to a method that will allow Iraqis to participate in some way in choosing a provisional government, and that provisional government will then oversee things like drafting election -- drafting a constitution and holding elections.

ROBERTS: Bathsheba, as you point out, it's hard to know exactly what direction is going to be taking place here, but again, we wait to hear from Jalal Talabani, who is the head of the Iraqi Governing Council. He met with Paul Bremer this morning after his trip to Washington, D.C., and we expect to hear from them shortly, at least we hope to.

But in regard to the trust issue that they have, there is a big trust issue that needs to be established, I guess, when it comes to Americans and Iraqis, because if they do go ahead, have these so- called town hall meetings or move ahead with the elections, there's really no guarantee that some type of Iraqi extremists wouldn't be voted into power.

CROCKER: Well, I think that's right, and that's one of the major concerns. And I understand that that is one reason that Ambassador Bremer has been somewhat concerned about the idea of holding elections before a provisional government, precisely because, I think, in many other of these post-conflict situations, it has been shown that if you hold elections too early, it does tend to just lead to the election of the extremists or the radical elements of the society or, in this case, also, perhaps, some of the exile leaders, who are just more organized than other parts of the Iraqi society.

And one of the things that will be particularly important for the choosing of a provisional government, however they decide to get there, is that that provisional government be seen as more legitimate than the Governing Council has been. And the Governing Council has suffered from the beginning because it has been seen as just being a body that was handpicked by the United States and therefore does not have that much legitimacy within Iraq.

ROBERTS: Also, do you make much significance of Paul Bremer coming back to Washington, D.C., quickly during the week, and now returning to Iraq to have these meetings, especially after Richard Armitage was in Iraqi last weekend?

CROCKER: Well, there has been a lot of so-called shuttle diplomacy, I think, back and forth between officials to Baghdad and then Baghdad officials back to Washington. I think it was very significant that Ambassador Bremer came back to Washington this week and seemed to do so on a rather urgent basis.

And I think that it showed that the administration was really, I think for the first time, making a more direct link between the political transition process and what is happening on the security front in Iraq, and, in other words, realizing that if they found a way to have a political transition process that might be more acceptable to the Iraqi people, it might go some way toward winning more favor among the Iraqis and tamping down a bit on the rising resistance there.

ROBERTS: Bathsheba, we appreciate your insight. Bathsheba Crocker, she's a fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Again, thank you for your time this morning.

CROCKER: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com