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Medicare Overhaul's Play on Politics

Aired November 25, 2003 - 11:05   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Depending on whom you believe, this is either Medicare's saving grace or the beginning of the end. Senior political analyst William Schneider, Bill Schneider, that is, joins us now in Washington this morning.
Bill, everybody's talking about this one indeed, along with the economy numbers that came out today. But let's begin with Medicare. Is this an embarrassment possibly to the Democrats who have for so many years pushed for entitlement programs?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it does mean Democrats don't have an exclusive claim on the Medicare issue, which they've had since 1965 really because it was passed largely as a Democratic program. And Democrats have been the zealous protectors of Medicare.

This is the first big expansion of Medicare benefits, the first new entitlement program in many, many decades. And Republicans can claim authorship. Democrats believe there's going to be a backlash because it's not adequate, because it allows private companies -- subsidizes private companies to compete for Medicare beneficiaries.

Nevertheless, it's new and seniors will have at least some prescription drug coverage. So Republicans claim it's not your issue any more.

COLLINS: Let's talk a little bit about what this is going to mean in the short term for seniors. When will people start seeing some benefits from this?

SCHNEIDER: Well, the intention is to give every senior, every retiree a card, if they choose to participate in this program, a drug discount card. And remember this program is a voluntary program so that's what Orrin Hatch just said. They have a choice. They'll get a drug discount card sometime next year before the election.

But the whole program really won't kick in until 2006. So therefore the controversial, if there is one, is put off for a couple years. And that's what got Democrats very frustrated. They'll say, You wait until seniors take a look at this plan. They're really not going to be able to until 2006.

COLLINS: What about the AARP? Obviously this is a group supposed to be representing seniors and their interests. Is that what we're seeing here? They're obviously very much in favor of this bill.

SCHNEIDER: They are. And there's some suspicion among critics of the AARP including some of their members that the AARP is in the insurance business, so it favors this bill because it includes heavy subsidies for insurance providers.

But the AARP claims, No, there's a fire wall between our lobbying exercises and the insurance business. Well, that's going to be an argument for some time to come.

The AARP claims they've looked into this. It's not a perfect bill, but that it's a start and they can improve the bill later. So that's why they support it.

COLLINS: Does it make you think back to 1989 or so with the catastrophic health care bill that was passed then?

SCHNEIDER: Well that bill was passed in 1989. It was a huge fire storm. Congress passed it. There was backlash among seniors. They actually attacked the car that was riding Congressman Dan Rostenkowski, the powerful chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. Here you can see angry seniors in 1989 furious that they would be required to participate in this program that a lot of them though was too expensive and they didn't need. There was such a ferocious backlash among seniors that the bill was repealed a year later.

And lot of Democrats are saying this is the catastrophic health experience revisited. But, but the Republicans were pretty careful this time. They didn't make this compulsory like catastrophic health insurance and they gave subsidies to employers so that people who have this insurance will be to keep it. So they were careful not to repeat that experience.

And what Republicans and lot of supporters say the real comparison isn't catastrophic health insurance. It's welfare reform. That's when Bill Clinton reached across the aisles, seized a Republican theme, welfare reform, and made it his own. That's what they say George Bush is doing by creating this new prescription drug entitlement.

COLLINS: All right, Bill, let me combine issues just for a moment. We've been reporting all day about the GDP being much higher than expected and the economy. There were some conservative Republicans who were saying that this bill was just too expensive. In the face of the economy and the situation that was of course prior to these numbers coming out, do you think this will have any effect on the bill? And also, on the presidential election?

SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, look. If the economy as booming as it was in the 1990s, as it was in the 1980s, then you know what happens? All problems get solved because revenues start rolling in. And the expense of this bill will be bearable. Why do you think we had a federal surplus in the 1990s? Largely because the economy was booming.

There's one thing we know in politics. That is when the economy is bad, the economy's the issue. When the economy is good, something else is the issue. So if the economy is good and the Medicare bill has passed, what's going to be the issue? Most people think Iraq.

COLLINS: All right, Bill Schneider, senior political analyst, thanks very much for talking with us about that today.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired November 25, 2003 - 11:05   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Depending on whom you believe, this is either Medicare's saving grace or the beginning of the end. Senior political analyst William Schneider, Bill Schneider, that is, joins us now in Washington this morning.
Bill, everybody's talking about this one indeed, along with the economy numbers that came out today. But let's begin with Medicare. Is this an embarrassment possibly to the Democrats who have for so many years pushed for entitlement programs?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it does mean Democrats don't have an exclusive claim on the Medicare issue, which they've had since 1965 really because it was passed largely as a Democratic program. And Democrats have been the zealous protectors of Medicare.

This is the first big expansion of Medicare benefits, the first new entitlement program in many, many decades. And Republicans can claim authorship. Democrats believe there's going to be a backlash because it's not adequate, because it allows private companies -- subsidizes private companies to compete for Medicare beneficiaries.

Nevertheless, it's new and seniors will have at least some prescription drug coverage. So Republicans claim it's not your issue any more.

COLLINS: Let's talk a little bit about what this is going to mean in the short term for seniors. When will people start seeing some benefits from this?

SCHNEIDER: Well, the intention is to give every senior, every retiree a card, if they choose to participate in this program, a drug discount card. And remember this program is a voluntary program so that's what Orrin Hatch just said. They have a choice. They'll get a drug discount card sometime next year before the election.

But the whole program really won't kick in until 2006. So therefore the controversial, if there is one, is put off for a couple years. And that's what got Democrats very frustrated. They'll say, You wait until seniors take a look at this plan. They're really not going to be able to until 2006.

COLLINS: What about the AARP? Obviously this is a group supposed to be representing seniors and their interests. Is that what we're seeing here? They're obviously very much in favor of this bill.

SCHNEIDER: They are. And there's some suspicion among critics of the AARP including some of their members that the AARP is in the insurance business, so it favors this bill because it includes heavy subsidies for insurance providers.

But the AARP claims, No, there's a fire wall between our lobbying exercises and the insurance business. Well, that's going to be an argument for some time to come.

The AARP claims they've looked into this. It's not a perfect bill, but that it's a start and they can improve the bill later. So that's why they support it.

COLLINS: Does it make you think back to 1989 or so with the catastrophic health care bill that was passed then?

SCHNEIDER: Well that bill was passed in 1989. It was a huge fire storm. Congress passed it. There was backlash among seniors. They actually attacked the car that was riding Congressman Dan Rostenkowski, the powerful chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. Here you can see angry seniors in 1989 furious that they would be required to participate in this program that a lot of them though was too expensive and they didn't need. There was such a ferocious backlash among seniors that the bill was repealed a year later.

And lot of Democrats are saying this is the catastrophic health experience revisited. But, but the Republicans were pretty careful this time. They didn't make this compulsory like catastrophic health insurance and they gave subsidies to employers so that people who have this insurance will be to keep it. So they were careful not to repeat that experience.

And what Republicans and lot of supporters say the real comparison isn't catastrophic health insurance. It's welfare reform. That's when Bill Clinton reached across the aisles, seized a Republican theme, welfare reform, and made it his own. That's what they say George Bush is doing by creating this new prescription drug entitlement.

COLLINS: All right, Bill, let me combine issues just for a moment. We've been reporting all day about the GDP being much higher than expected and the economy. There were some conservative Republicans who were saying that this bill was just too expensive. In the face of the economy and the situation that was of course prior to these numbers coming out, do you think this will have any effect on the bill? And also, on the presidential election?

SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, look. If the economy as booming as it was in the 1990s, as it was in the 1980s, then you know what happens? All problems get solved because revenues start rolling in. And the expense of this bill will be bearable. Why do you think we had a federal surplus in the 1990s? Largely because the economy was booming.

There's one thing we know in politics. That is when the economy is bad, the economy's the issue. When the economy is good, something else is the issue. So if the economy is good and the Medicare bill has passed, what's going to be the issue? Most people think Iraq.

COLLINS: All right, Bill Schneider, senior political analyst, thanks very much for talking with us about that today.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com