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CNN Live At Daybreak
Saddam Hussein Captured: Impact on Markets
Aired December 15, 2003 - 06:46 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: The capture of Saddam Hussein is expected to have a positive impact on the markets.
Joining us live by phone from New York is Jack Otter of "SmartMoney" magazine.
Good morning.
JACK OTTER, "SMARTMONEY" MAGAZINE: Good morning.
COSTELLO: So tell us, how -- what effect do you think the news of Saddam's capture will have on the markets today? And what should we do?
OTTER: Well, unfortunately, there's not much that the retail investor can do. I think Carrie Lee is absolutely right, the markets will open with a nice big pop. I mean easily the market will be up a hundred or more points by 10:00. The question is where will they be at 4:00? We can hope, obviously, that they will still be up that high.
If the rally continues for a second day, then I think we can say this really had a big effect. But the market has had 24 hours already to digest it. And I think, you know, as exciting as it is, we all know that this crazy guy with a beard probably wasn't leading these guerilla assaults on U.S. troops. So, unfortunately, I think that's probably going to continue.
The market, in a sense, had already priced in the defeat of Saddam Hussein. So I think we'll see gold go down a little bit, oil will go down a little bit. The dollar is already stronger on foreign markets. But we'll have to wait a few days to see what the long-term impact will be. But I think...
COSTELLO: Well will it -- will it make any difference if Saddam Hussein says something about weapons of mass destruction or who is leading the insurgence or maybe turn some of his guys in?
OTTER: Well that, of course, would be wonderful to get -- to get real military intelligence from him or to get information that we could use in any way to further win this sort of low impact guerilla war. And then that would be huge for the market, because at this point, nothing like that is priced in. But that these would all have to be sort of future developments.
One thing, though, that Carrie mentioned was the retailers, and that actually is very important. I mean if indeed holiday shoppers are in a better mood, they are spending more money, that is going to, obviously, boost the retail sector. But it could certainly boost the market as a whole. And so, in a way, even if he doesn't affect the markets directly, if he affects U.S. sentiment, then he will have boosted the marketplace.
COSTELLO: I'm just imaging for a moment if Osama bin Laden is captured later today what that would do to the markets.
OTTER: Well that would be absolutely huge. Because unlike Saddam, who you know exactly what he was doing, we don't know, Osama bin Laden was leading a threat to the U.S. that I think anyone can agree was bigger than anything Saddam ever posed, certainly at this point until we find weapons of mass destruction.
COSTELLO: All right.
OTTER: So that would be, I don't know, 500 points on the market.
COSTELLO: And we look forward to that day. Jack Otter from "SmartMoney" magazine joining us live by phone this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired December 15, 2003 - 06:46 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: The capture of Saddam Hussein is expected to have a positive impact on the markets.
Joining us live by phone from New York is Jack Otter of "SmartMoney" magazine.
Good morning.
JACK OTTER, "SMARTMONEY" MAGAZINE: Good morning.
COSTELLO: So tell us, how -- what effect do you think the news of Saddam's capture will have on the markets today? And what should we do?
OTTER: Well, unfortunately, there's not much that the retail investor can do. I think Carrie Lee is absolutely right, the markets will open with a nice big pop. I mean easily the market will be up a hundred or more points by 10:00. The question is where will they be at 4:00? We can hope, obviously, that they will still be up that high.
If the rally continues for a second day, then I think we can say this really had a big effect. But the market has had 24 hours already to digest it. And I think, you know, as exciting as it is, we all know that this crazy guy with a beard probably wasn't leading these guerilla assaults on U.S. troops. So, unfortunately, I think that's probably going to continue.
The market, in a sense, had already priced in the defeat of Saddam Hussein. So I think we'll see gold go down a little bit, oil will go down a little bit. The dollar is already stronger on foreign markets. But we'll have to wait a few days to see what the long-term impact will be. But I think...
COSTELLO: Well will it -- will it make any difference if Saddam Hussein says something about weapons of mass destruction or who is leading the insurgence or maybe turn some of his guys in?
OTTER: Well that, of course, would be wonderful to get -- to get real military intelligence from him or to get information that we could use in any way to further win this sort of low impact guerilla war. And then that would be huge for the market, because at this point, nothing like that is priced in. But that these would all have to be sort of future developments.
One thing, though, that Carrie mentioned was the retailers, and that actually is very important. I mean if indeed holiday shoppers are in a better mood, they are spending more money, that is going to, obviously, boost the retail sector. But it could certainly boost the market as a whole. And so, in a way, even if he doesn't affect the markets directly, if he affects U.S. sentiment, then he will have boosted the marketplace.
COSTELLO: I'm just imaging for a moment if Osama bin Laden is captured later today what that would do to the markets.
OTTER: Well that would be absolutely huge. Because unlike Saddam, who you know exactly what he was doing, we don't know, Osama bin Laden was leading a threat to the U.S. that I think anyone can agree was bigger than anything Saddam ever posed, certainly at this point until we find weapons of mass destruction.
COSTELLO: All right.
OTTER: So that would be, I don't know, 500 points on the market.
COSTELLO: And we look forward to that day. Jack Otter from "SmartMoney" magazine joining us live by phone this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
