Return to Transcripts main page

American Morning

Challenges in Iraq for 2004

Aired December 31, 2003 - 09:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Two people were killed by gunfire today during a demonstration in northern Iraq. Protesters want Kirkuk to remain under the control of a central government rather than becoming part of the Kurdish area. U.S. troops are caught in the middle as America tries to bring democracy to Iraq.
Christine Spolar is the Baghdad bureau chief of "The Chicago Tribune." And she joins us this morning from Washington to talk about some of the challenges that U.S. troops will face in the coming year.

Good morning to you, Mrs. Spolar. Thanks for being with us.

CHRISTINE SPOLAR, "THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE": Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Look ahead for me and list the biggest obstacles that troops will face in '04. And are those significantly different, you think, than they faced in '03?

SPOLAR: Well, there will be a changeover of troops. And that will happen in February and March. And I think during that time period, security, security, security, again is always the issue. But you will have the entire theater changing. You will have the 101st Airborne leaving, the 82nd Airborne leaving, and you will have troops coming in from Bosnia, and from Germany and National Guard coming in.

What many people are concerned about with that is that you're -- the troops that are experienced in the field are leaving. You're getting very good soldiers in, but there will be a learning curve, and that could cause some problems.

O'BRIEN: Then give me the bigger picture as the theater changes, what will the impact be in the long run, not the short run?

SPOLAR: Well, probably the insurgency itself. The insurgents will probably take advantage of the situation and go after the troops. The troops, because they're not that experienced in Iraq, probably will be a little bit more proactive. And I think, many people think, that there will be a real surge of attacks and deaths on both sides in February and March, as the turnover occurs.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk a little bit about the clans that control Iraq. It's really a new focus of the troops there. And some people say that was an opportunity that was missed before, that there was this huge mistake, in not cultivating those connections and not fully understanding the degree to which those clans really run, or ran, Iraq. Do you think that's a fair assessment, a fair criticism? SPOLAR: Well, I think the tribes are very important to Iraq now, and very important to the success of what the next phase is for the Americans there, which is governance. The Americans very much want a Democratic sovereignty handover as of July. What you have is tribes to have familial ties, which are basically opposite, and the antithesis of what democracy is. So somehow, the Americans have to pull the tribes in a very progressive and positive way into the Democratic process. It's a big challenge for them.

O'BRIEN: As the July date looms then, can that be done?

SPOLAR: It's going to be a real contest. And I think the Iraqis are worried about it. The members of the Iraqi Governing Council are worried about it. I think the Americans who understand the tribes and have a background in how Iraq was during Saddam and before Saddam are concerned about it. It's definitely a challenge.

O'BRIEN: Are you feeling hopeful or not hopeful as we head into '04 for the situation in Iraq?

SPOLAR: I'm neither. I'm fascinated. It is one of the most interesting experiments going on in taking over a country and trying to feed democracy, if you will. I don't know whether you can be hopeful or not. You just have to be vigilant and try to see what is happening on the ground, how the insurgency is changing, if it is, and how the troops adapt to that.

O'BRIEN: Christine Spolar is "The Chicago Tribune" Baghdad bureau chief, joining us this morning. Christine, thanks.

SPOLAR: Thank you, Soledad.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired December 31, 2003 - 09:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Two people were killed by gunfire today during a demonstration in northern Iraq. Protesters want Kirkuk to remain under the control of a central government rather than becoming part of the Kurdish area. U.S. troops are caught in the middle as America tries to bring democracy to Iraq.
Christine Spolar is the Baghdad bureau chief of "The Chicago Tribune." And she joins us this morning from Washington to talk about some of the challenges that U.S. troops will face in the coming year.

Good morning to you, Mrs. Spolar. Thanks for being with us.

CHRISTINE SPOLAR, "THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE": Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Look ahead for me and list the biggest obstacles that troops will face in '04. And are those significantly different, you think, than they faced in '03?

SPOLAR: Well, there will be a changeover of troops. And that will happen in February and March. And I think during that time period, security, security, security, again is always the issue. But you will have the entire theater changing. You will have the 101st Airborne leaving, the 82nd Airborne leaving, and you will have troops coming in from Bosnia, and from Germany and National Guard coming in.

What many people are concerned about with that is that you're -- the troops that are experienced in the field are leaving. You're getting very good soldiers in, but there will be a learning curve, and that could cause some problems.

O'BRIEN: Then give me the bigger picture as the theater changes, what will the impact be in the long run, not the short run?

SPOLAR: Well, probably the insurgency itself. The insurgents will probably take advantage of the situation and go after the troops. The troops, because they're not that experienced in Iraq, probably will be a little bit more proactive. And I think, many people think, that there will be a real surge of attacks and deaths on both sides in February and March, as the turnover occurs.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk a little bit about the clans that control Iraq. It's really a new focus of the troops there. And some people say that was an opportunity that was missed before, that there was this huge mistake, in not cultivating those connections and not fully understanding the degree to which those clans really run, or ran, Iraq. Do you think that's a fair assessment, a fair criticism? SPOLAR: Well, I think the tribes are very important to Iraq now, and very important to the success of what the next phase is for the Americans there, which is governance. The Americans very much want a Democratic sovereignty handover as of July. What you have is tribes to have familial ties, which are basically opposite, and the antithesis of what democracy is. So somehow, the Americans have to pull the tribes in a very progressive and positive way into the Democratic process. It's a big challenge for them.

O'BRIEN: As the July date looms then, can that be done?

SPOLAR: It's going to be a real contest. And I think the Iraqis are worried about it. The members of the Iraqi Governing Council are worried about it. I think the Americans who understand the tribes and have a background in how Iraq was during Saddam and before Saddam are concerned about it. It's definitely a challenge.

O'BRIEN: Are you feeling hopeful or not hopeful as we head into '04 for the situation in Iraq?

SPOLAR: I'm neither. I'm fascinated. It is one of the most interesting experiments going on in taking over a country and trying to feed democracy, if you will. I don't know whether you can be hopeful or not. You just have to be vigilant and try to see what is happening on the ground, how the insurgency is changing, if it is, and how the troops adapt to that.

O'BRIEN: Christine Spolar is "The Chicago Tribune" Baghdad bureau chief, joining us this morning. Christine, thanks.

SPOLAR: Thank you, Soledad.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com