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CNN Live At Daybreak
America's Voice: Campaign Quiz
Aired January 06, 2004 - 06:36 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Political brain teasers and Charlie Hussell (ph) for you this morning, courtesy of our friends at the Gallup Poll.
Gallup Poll editor-in-chief Frank Newport live with a campaign quiz live from Princeton, New Jersey.
Fire away -- Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, the first question, Howard Dean, as you just showed us, is clearly the front runner in our early January polling, in everybody's early January polling for the Democratic nomination.
We looked at 10 Democratic races since World War II, and we asked: How often does the Democratic front runner at this point get the nomination? And the answer to that is not all that often. Only 4 times out of 10 does the front runner win. Other times the front runner died. He either withdraws -- not dies literally, but moves out of the race altogether.
In fact, let me show you here. Here are four races. These were the front runners in January: 1992, Jerry Brown; 1988, Gary Hart; 1976, Ted Kennedy; and '72, Hubert Humphrey. In none of these years did these gentlemen get the nomination for president.
In fact, in a couple of these years, '76 and '72, the eventual nominees, Carter and back in '72 McGovern, were way down in the polls at this point. It should give some solace to Dennis Kucinich or some others. By no means do we think at Gallup that Dean is necessarily assured (AUDIO GAP) just wait and see what happens.
COSTELLO: Oh, interesting.
NEWPORT: Carol, here's a question for you. Everybody is looking at the red and blue states. What's the most Republican state in the country? We just did a big analysis of who identifies as Republican and Democrat. In what state do more people say they're Republican than any other?
COSTELLO: I would guess some state like Utah.
NEWPORT: Excellent. You get an "A" for your quiz response this morning. Here are the top five in terms of percentage Republican identifiers -- you're absolutely right: Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota and Nebraska, all up there in the Midwest and upper Midwest. Of course, none of these have a great number of electoral votes. Quick, Democrat: What's the most Democratic state in the country in terms of identification of the voters in that state?
COSTELLO: Either New Hampshire or Vermont.
NEWPORT: Very good, Carol. I have to give you another "A." You're doing very well. It's Vermont here, then Arkansas, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, all of these Northeast states that we hear a lot about. Clearly, that's where the Democrats have a lot of strength.
COSTELLO: Oh, I'm feeling good, Frank. Let's move on to Pete Rose, because I'm really interested in poll numbers on Pete and whether despite his gambling problem he should be admitted to the Hall of Fame. How do people feel?
NEWPORT: Well, we just reviewed our Gallup archives, and we've actually asked that question three different times over the last three or four years. Every time the number gets bigger. Yes, yes, yes, say baseball fans, Rose should be in the Hall of Fame up there in Cooperstown, New York. The last time we asked it this past summer, two-thirds of fans said, yes, Rose should be in the Hall of Fame.
COSTELLO: You know, I always wonder if people really understand what he did.
NEWPORT: Well, they're going to understand more this week than they have before with all of the publicity, and, of course, there's a new book coming out. This, of course, may not be a total understanding, because he was still denying having gambled on baseball at that point. But, nevertheless, the sentiment seems pretty strong -- Carol.
COSTELLO: So, does that mean a new poll is in the works, Frank?
NEWPORT: Indeed, excellent. We'll be asking as soon as we're back out in the field, I think, of what Americans think now that he has confessed to betting on baseball.
COSTELLO: All right, Frank Newport live from Princeton, New Jersey.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired January 6, 2004 - 06:36 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Political brain teasers and Charlie Hussell (ph) for you this morning, courtesy of our friends at the Gallup Poll.
Gallup Poll editor-in-chief Frank Newport live with a campaign quiz live from Princeton, New Jersey.
Fire away -- Frank.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Well, the first question, Howard Dean, as you just showed us, is clearly the front runner in our early January polling, in everybody's early January polling for the Democratic nomination.
We looked at 10 Democratic races since World War II, and we asked: How often does the Democratic front runner at this point get the nomination? And the answer to that is not all that often. Only 4 times out of 10 does the front runner win. Other times the front runner died. He either withdraws -- not dies literally, but moves out of the race altogether.
In fact, let me show you here. Here are four races. These were the front runners in January: 1992, Jerry Brown; 1988, Gary Hart; 1976, Ted Kennedy; and '72, Hubert Humphrey. In none of these years did these gentlemen get the nomination for president.
In fact, in a couple of these years, '76 and '72, the eventual nominees, Carter and back in '72 McGovern, were way down in the polls at this point. It should give some solace to Dennis Kucinich or some others. By no means do we think at Gallup that Dean is necessarily assured (AUDIO GAP) just wait and see what happens.
COSTELLO: Oh, interesting.
NEWPORT: Carol, here's a question for you. Everybody is looking at the red and blue states. What's the most Republican state in the country? We just did a big analysis of who identifies as Republican and Democrat. In what state do more people say they're Republican than any other?
COSTELLO: I would guess some state like Utah.
NEWPORT: Excellent. You get an "A" for your quiz response this morning. Here are the top five in terms of percentage Republican identifiers -- you're absolutely right: Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota and Nebraska, all up there in the Midwest and upper Midwest. Of course, none of these have a great number of electoral votes. Quick, Democrat: What's the most Democratic state in the country in terms of identification of the voters in that state?
COSTELLO: Either New Hampshire or Vermont.
NEWPORT: Very good, Carol. I have to give you another "A." You're doing very well. It's Vermont here, then Arkansas, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, all of these Northeast states that we hear a lot about. Clearly, that's where the Democrats have a lot of strength.
COSTELLO: Oh, I'm feeling good, Frank. Let's move on to Pete Rose, because I'm really interested in poll numbers on Pete and whether despite his gambling problem he should be admitted to the Hall of Fame. How do people feel?
NEWPORT: Well, we just reviewed our Gallup archives, and we've actually asked that question three different times over the last three or four years. Every time the number gets bigger. Yes, yes, yes, say baseball fans, Rose should be in the Hall of Fame up there in Cooperstown, New York. The last time we asked it this past summer, two-thirds of fans said, yes, Rose should be in the Hall of Fame.
COSTELLO: You know, I always wonder if people really understand what he did.
NEWPORT: Well, they're going to understand more this week than they have before with all of the publicity, and, of course, there's a new book coming out. This, of course, may not be a total understanding, because he was still denying having gambled on baseball at that point. But, nevertheless, the sentiment seems pretty strong -- Carol.
COSTELLO: So, does that mean a new poll is in the works, Frank?
NEWPORT: Indeed, excellent. We'll be asking as soon as we're back out in the field, I think, of what Americans think now that he has confessed to betting on baseball.
COSTELLO: All right, Frank Newport live from Princeton, New Jersey.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
