Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Live Sunday
Howard Dean Still Leader Of Democratic Polls
Aired January 11, 2004 - 18:09 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: A recent cover of "Newsweek" focused on doubts about Dean, but the magazine's latest poll shows he's still the leader of the pack of Democratic presidential candidates. "Newsweek's" Marcus Mabry joins us now from New York to talk more about the poll results. Hi, Marcus.
MARCUS MABRY, "NEWSWEEK": Hi, Carol, how are you?
LIN: Just fine. This is a national poll, right?
MABRY: That's absolutely right. National polls are important in as much as the local polls will tell you what voters and Democratic leaning voters are thinking in New Hampshire or iowa. A national poll tells you about trends, it tells you about momentum amongst the candidates.
LIN: All right. So, let's check out some of the results here by taking a quick look at the graphic that we're going to put up. It appears that Howard Dean has outnumbered his nearest opponent, Dick Gephardt, by two to one.
MABRY: That's absolutely right. Howard Dean is still in front. Tied for second place with General Clark as well as Congressman Gephardt. The interesting thing is this, is that in three weeks now, the Democrats -- the Democratic contenders who want to bring down Dean have managed to bring down his poll numbers amongst Democratic voters and Democratic leaning voters by just three points. But he suffered some incredibly withering attacks in that time.
So, this would suggest that Dean's candidacy is pretty strong. He's actually ready for the romp and the razzle and fighting necessary to n a presidential campaign.
LIN: So, what do you make of Wesley Clark getting 12 percent there in a poll? He's not even participating in the Iowa caucus.
MABRY: Well, that's what's amazing is Clark has been, you know, on this national tour. He did this true grits tour down in the south in recent weeks. We saw, three weeks ago, Clark numbers have gone down three points, which is a very tiny drop.
Clark really is, again, he is out there right now, he's the candidate who is the anti-Dean. The Democratic establishment, all the other Democrats, they all know Dean is riding higher right now. What they want to do is be the alternative for when and if Dean fades or fails, which could well happen in the south. In the Democratic primaries turn that way. Right now, Wes Clark is definitely the anti-Dean.
LIN: Right. It's really got to be a big blow to Dick Gephardt and John Kerry that the "Des Moines Register" endorsed John Edwards. What do you think this is going to mean to their candidacy? Are they going to split the vote? Is it going to be a big boost for John Edwards?
MABRY: It's unlikely it had l propel Edwards toward No. 1 or No. 2, but it is possible it could keep him -- make him No. 3. Gephardt, at this point, Gephardt is going to benefit in the Iowa caucuses from the law of diminished expectations. Because Dean has been doing and Gephardt has been sucking wind until this point, the feeling is Gephardt, if he comes in a strong second, will actually be seen as somewhat of a victory. Which is ironic since the guy is from next door Missouri.
Now, in fact, What could happen here is if Edwards actually catapults up to No. 3, Gephardt No. 2, if Kerry -- Kerry and Gephardt's both nationally, their campaigns, are finally waking up. In the latest "Newsweek" poll, Kerry garners 11 percent, Gephardt 12 percent. That's an increase of 7 percent and 5 percent respectively in the last three weeks amonst their poll numbers.
What that means is, these two campaigns are finally waking up. What we're going to see is, are they waking up in time to actually make a difference in Iowa or is it too late? And with Gephardt, in particular, ready for the grave yard.
LIN: Let's take a look, though, at the fontrunner so far. Howard Dean and how he measures up against sitting President Bush. Pretty tight race there, if you take the sampling error into factor, plus or minus three points. President Bush there standing at 51 percent, Howard Dean at 43 percent. Does it look like Howard Dean, then, is the man to take on the president of the United States?
MABRY: Well, Carol, you know, we do these test match-ups between each of the leading Democratic contenders and the president. At this point, you're right, there's a gap of eight points between the president and Governor Dean.
The amazing thing for Gephardt, and again this is further evidence that his campaign is waking up, finally, the gap between Gephardt and the president is only 7 percent. Between Wes Clark and the president, it's only 9 percent. So, those three Democrats are really close together vis a vis the president.
The interesting thing for Dean, and something the Dean campaign has known and has to know, and this is certanily something the Bushies will exploit if Dean is the candidate of the Democratic party, there, as we said last week in "Newsweek", lots of doubts about Dean.
We asked a question about -- is Dean too liberal to win against the president? And more than 40 percent of registered voters told us that, yes, in fact, they thought Howard Dean was too liberal to win against the president. Something else that was very interesting is, 36 percent of Democrats said they thought he was too liberal to win against the president. That's a weakness for Dean that perception. 25 percent of voters say they don't know, yet, so that means there is some leeway for Dean to educate voters, but already, we've seen the Republicans and even his Democratic challengers are already trying to define dean in lieu of Dean being able to define himself for the American voters.
LIN: So what are you anticipating, then, for tonight's last debate?
MABRY: I'm sorry, Carol, I lost you for a second.
LIN: Oh, given the polling results and Howard Dean's vulnerability on the liberalism issue, what are you anticipating for tonight's debate between the candidates?
MABRY: Well, it's interesting, Dean is in a very tough spot, because right now, he's running a primary race. This is going to be the first caucus in which Democrats will actually be able to vote. We in the media have been talking about this for months, but this is actually the time where you have motivate your base and his base doesn't mind him being liberal at all. His base wants a liberal, tough talker, and that's why he's leading in the campaign since it began.
So, he's got to still keep running passionately and as liberally and as free talking as he wants to at this point. If he's going to go against George Bush in the general election campaign, he can worry about running hard to the center. But right now, he's got to run really hard to the passionate left, who are the soul and heart of Democratic party.
LIN: And that will make it even more interesting as his campaign may shift in the south, how he's going to be able to shift gears there as well.
MABRY: That's exactly right.
LIN: A lot of gymnastics are going to be going no in that campaign.
Thanks very much, Marcus.
MABRY: Thank you, Carol.
LIN: All right. We'll be looking forward to the debate, tonight. Marcus Mabry from "Newsweek" magazine.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 11, 2004 - 18:09 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: A recent cover of "Newsweek" focused on doubts about Dean, but the magazine's latest poll shows he's still the leader of the pack of Democratic presidential candidates. "Newsweek's" Marcus Mabry joins us now from New York to talk more about the poll results. Hi, Marcus.
MARCUS MABRY, "NEWSWEEK": Hi, Carol, how are you?
LIN: Just fine. This is a national poll, right?
MABRY: That's absolutely right. National polls are important in as much as the local polls will tell you what voters and Democratic leaning voters are thinking in New Hampshire or iowa. A national poll tells you about trends, it tells you about momentum amongst the candidates.
LIN: All right. So, let's check out some of the results here by taking a quick look at the graphic that we're going to put up. It appears that Howard Dean has outnumbered his nearest opponent, Dick Gephardt, by two to one.
MABRY: That's absolutely right. Howard Dean is still in front. Tied for second place with General Clark as well as Congressman Gephardt. The interesting thing is this, is that in three weeks now, the Democrats -- the Democratic contenders who want to bring down Dean have managed to bring down his poll numbers amongst Democratic voters and Democratic leaning voters by just three points. But he suffered some incredibly withering attacks in that time.
So, this would suggest that Dean's candidacy is pretty strong. He's actually ready for the romp and the razzle and fighting necessary to n a presidential campaign.
LIN: So, what do you make of Wesley Clark getting 12 percent there in a poll? He's not even participating in the Iowa caucus.
MABRY: Well, that's what's amazing is Clark has been, you know, on this national tour. He did this true grits tour down in the south in recent weeks. We saw, three weeks ago, Clark numbers have gone down three points, which is a very tiny drop.
Clark really is, again, he is out there right now, he's the candidate who is the anti-Dean. The Democratic establishment, all the other Democrats, they all know Dean is riding higher right now. What they want to do is be the alternative for when and if Dean fades or fails, which could well happen in the south. In the Democratic primaries turn that way. Right now, Wes Clark is definitely the anti-Dean.
LIN: Right. It's really got to be a big blow to Dick Gephardt and John Kerry that the "Des Moines Register" endorsed John Edwards. What do you think this is going to mean to their candidacy? Are they going to split the vote? Is it going to be a big boost for John Edwards?
MABRY: It's unlikely it had l propel Edwards toward No. 1 or No. 2, but it is possible it could keep him -- make him No. 3. Gephardt, at this point, Gephardt is going to benefit in the Iowa caucuses from the law of diminished expectations. Because Dean has been doing and Gephardt has been sucking wind until this point, the feeling is Gephardt, if he comes in a strong second, will actually be seen as somewhat of a victory. Which is ironic since the guy is from next door Missouri.
Now, in fact, What could happen here is if Edwards actually catapults up to No. 3, Gephardt No. 2, if Kerry -- Kerry and Gephardt's both nationally, their campaigns, are finally waking up. In the latest "Newsweek" poll, Kerry garners 11 percent, Gephardt 12 percent. That's an increase of 7 percent and 5 percent respectively in the last three weeks amonst their poll numbers.
What that means is, these two campaigns are finally waking up. What we're going to see is, are they waking up in time to actually make a difference in Iowa or is it too late? And with Gephardt, in particular, ready for the grave yard.
LIN: Let's take a look, though, at the fontrunner so far. Howard Dean and how he measures up against sitting President Bush. Pretty tight race there, if you take the sampling error into factor, plus or minus three points. President Bush there standing at 51 percent, Howard Dean at 43 percent. Does it look like Howard Dean, then, is the man to take on the president of the United States?
MABRY: Well, Carol, you know, we do these test match-ups between each of the leading Democratic contenders and the president. At this point, you're right, there's a gap of eight points between the president and Governor Dean.
The amazing thing for Gephardt, and again this is further evidence that his campaign is waking up, finally, the gap between Gephardt and the president is only 7 percent. Between Wes Clark and the president, it's only 9 percent. So, those three Democrats are really close together vis a vis the president.
The interesting thing for Dean, and something the Dean campaign has known and has to know, and this is certanily something the Bushies will exploit if Dean is the candidate of the Democratic party, there, as we said last week in "Newsweek", lots of doubts about Dean.
We asked a question about -- is Dean too liberal to win against the president? And more than 40 percent of registered voters told us that, yes, in fact, they thought Howard Dean was too liberal to win against the president. Something else that was very interesting is, 36 percent of Democrats said they thought he was too liberal to win against the president. That's a weakness for Dean that perception. 25 percent of voters say they don't know, yet, so that means there is some leeway for Dean to educate voters, but already, we've seen the Republicans and even his Democratic challengers are already trying to define dean in lieu of Dean being able to define himself for the American voters.
LIN: So what are you anticipating, then, for tonight's last debate?
MABRY: I'm sorry, Carol, I lost you for a second.
LIN: Oh, given the polling results and Howard Dean's vulnerability on the liberalism issue, what are you anticipating for tonight's debate between the candidates?
MABRY: Well, it's interesting, Dean is in a very tough spot, because right now, he's running a primary race. This is going to be the first caucus in which Democrats will actually be able to vote. We in the media have been talking about this for months, but this is actually the time where you have motivate your base and his base doesn't mind him being liberal at all. His base wants a liberal, tough talker, and that's why he's leading in the campaign since it began.
So, he's got to still keep running passionately and as liberally and as free talking as he wants to at this point. If he's going to go against George Bush in the general election campaign, he can worry about running hard to the center. But right now, he's got to run really hard to the passionate left, who are the soul and heart of Democratic party.
LIN: And that will make it even more interesting as his campaign may shift in the south, how he's going to be able to shift gears there as well.
MABRY: That's exactly right.
LIN: A lot of gymnastics are going to be going no in that campaign.
Thanks very much, Marcus.
MABRY: Thank you, Carol.
LIN: All right. We'll be looking forward to the debate, tonight. Marcus Mabry from "Newsweek" magazine.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
