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Races to Watch in 2004

Aired January 12, 2004 - 11:02   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: I want to get some more insight on the Iowa caucuses and some the races to watch in 2004. Steve Roberts is a political analyst and former CNN contributor. Along with his wife, Cokie Roberts, he writes a weekly syndicated column on politics. They also wrote the cover story for the latest issue of "USA Today Weekend."
Steve Roberts joins us. He's in Washington this morning.

Steve, good morning.

STEVE ROBERTS, POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Daryn.

KAGAN: Good to watch Iowa with you. What are you watching for Iowa this time around?

ROBERTS: Well, I think first, you've got to start with organization. As Bob pointed out, this is a very small operation, maybe 60,000 the last time around, maybe 100,000 this time. That's probably more than are going to be in the Super Bowl, and so organization is critical. Dean has troops coming in from other places. He's got union support. Gephardt also has union support, but it's the old-fashioned unions, the industrial unions.

Big question, can they deliver the way they used to in the past for Democratic candidates? That's one thing I'm watching, is the organizational fight. I still think Dean has the advantage.

KAGAN: While everyone is focusing on Iowa, you and Cokie spread out your vision and were watching other races. I want to pick two you featured in this weekend's article you wrote. First one, you're very interested in the Illinois Senate election. Why is that?

ROBERTS: Well, this is an open seat. Senator Fitzgerald, a Republican, is retiring. This is one of the rare chances the Democrats have to actually pick up a seat. The Senate's still fairly evenly divided, 51-48 with one independent. If the Democrats are going to have any chance of taking over the Senate anytime soon, they have to win the Illinois seat. If they lose that seat -- Illinois is a very important state in this country, it's a bellwether -- if they don't win Illinois, they're a minority party for the foreseeable future. Very important race.

KAGAN: That's the Senate side. On the House side, you want to watch Texas.

ROBERTS: I want to watch Texas, because there is a redistricting plan in place. It's survived so far several court challenges, and there are two questions here, Daryn -- one is, do the Democrats have any chance in the near future of taking back the House? If this court plan goes through, it looks like it will, Democrats could lose as many as six or seven seats in Texas, would be very difficult for them to recover from. But the other point is that a number of these Democrats who are in trouble in Texas are conservative Southerners.

We're looking particularly at a man named Charlie Stenhome, represents a district west of Ft. Worth. He has been a Bulwark of the Southern Democratic Party in the past. Now if he loses, it's not just that the Democrats have a much harder chance to keep control, or retake control of the House, but the whole party is misshapen. You lose Southern Democrats, conservatives, it means the liberal northern wing of the party is that much more powerful. And this is part of a re-alignment in American politics. Charlie Stenhome is a vanishing species, a southern conservative Democrat. He loses, the party's a different party.

KAGAN: It will be fascinating to see how it washes out there. Steve Roberts. Steve, thanks for stopping by. Appreciate it.

ROBERTS: Sure. Happy to.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired January 12, 2004 - 11:02   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: I want to get some more insight on the Iowa caucuses and some the races to watch in 2004. Steve Roberts is a political analyst and former CNN contributor. Along with his wife, Cokie Roberts, he writes a weekly syndicated column on politics. They also wrote the cover story for the latest issue of "USA Today Weekend."
Steve Roberts joins us. He's in Washington this morning.

Steve, good morning.

STEVE ROBERTS, POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Daryn.

KAGAN: Good to watch Iowa with you. What are you watching for Iowa this time around?

ROBERTS: Well, I think first, you've got to start with organization. As Bob pointed out, this is a very small operation, maybe 60,000 the last time around, maybe 100,000 this time. That's probably more than are going to be in the Super Bowl, and so organization is critical. Dean has troops coming in from other places. He's got union support. Gephardt also has union support, but it's the old-fashioned unions, the industrial unions.

Big question, can they deliver the way they used to in the past for Democratic candidates? That's one thing I'm watching, is the organizational fight. I still think Dean has the advantage.

KAGAN: While everyone is focusing on Iowa, you and Cokie spread out your vision and were watching other races. I want to pick two you featured in this weekend's article you wrote. First one, you're very interested in the Illinois Senate election. Why is that?

ROBERTS: Well, this is an open seat. Senator Fitzgerald, a Republican, is retiring. This is one of the rare chances the Democrats have to actually pick up a seat. The Senate's still fairly evenly divided, 51-48 with one independent. If the Democrats are going to have any chance of taking over the Senate anytime soon, they have to win the Illinois seat. If they lose that seat -- Illinois is a very important state in this country, it's a bellwether -- if they don't win Illinois, they're a minority party for the foreseeable future. Very important race.

KAGAN: That's the Senate side. On the House side, you want to watch Texas.

ROBERTS: I want to watch Texas, because there is a redistricting plan in place. It's survived so far several court challenges, and there are two questions here, Daryn -- one is, do the Democrats have any chance in the near future of taking back the House? If this court plan goes through, it looks like it will, Democrats could lose as many as six or seven seats in Texas, would be very difficult for them to recover from. But the other point is that a number of these Democrats who are in trouble in Texas are conservative Southerners.

We're looking particularly at a man named Charlie Stenhome, represents a district west of Ft. Worth. He has been a Bulwark of the Southern Democratic Party in the past. Now if he loses, it's not just that the Democrats have a much harder chance to keep control, or retake control of the House, but the whole party is misshapen. You lose Southern Democrats, conservatives, it means the liberal northern wing of the party is that much more powerful. And this is part of a re-alignment in American politics. Charlie Stenhome is a vanishing species, a southern conservative Democrat. He loses, the party's a different party.

KAGAN: It will be fascinating to see how it washes out there. Steve Roberts. Steve, thanks for stopping by. Appreciate it.

ROBERTS: Sure. Happy to.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com