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American Morning
Closer Look at Democratic Race in Iowa and Beyond
Aired January 12, 2004 - 08:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A closer look now at the Democratic race in Iowa and beyond.
We turn to CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider, who's in Washington this morning -- good morning, Bill.
Nice to see you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: It seems like Candy Crowley's end of the day takeaway was everybody's tired, they need to go to bed.
What's the headline from this debate?
What do you take away from it?
SCHNEIDER: Well, it's still a very serious struggle for the soul of the Democratic Party between the old believers and the new believers. The old believers, led by Dick Gephardt, whose issue is the economy, the economy, the economy; and the new believers, led by Howard Dean, whose issue is the war, the war, the war.
That's the principal battle going on and that was what was happening at that debate last night, with people trying to challenge Dean's credentials, essentially saying on racial issues, on civil rights, he doesn't have a long history of association with minorities, a long history in the trenches of the Democratic Party.
O'BRIEN: Jumping on Dean, of course, is nothing new.
What made it different -- or was it this different this time around? Or was it, once again, Dean versus the not Deans, as you like to say?
SCHNEIDER: Well, we have a two tier contest going on in Iowa. It's interesting. The contest between Dean and Gephardt is what I call the varsity contest for first place. The polls show Dean and Gephardt in a very tight struggle for first place, because there are a lot of old believers in Iowa, traditional blue collar working class Democrats who are concerned about the economy, and Dean is bringing in a lot of new forces to the Democratic Party.
But there's also a second tier contest, the junior varsity, so to speak, between John Kerry and John Edwards. Edwards articulating a populist message very effectively, king of giving a younger, fresher, newer face to the Gephardt message. And Kerry, competing with Howard Dean for some of those new Democratic voters.
O'BRIEN: All right, so rate the two of them for me. Who -- I mean if I can ask you to do a prediction, who do you think walks away with that second tier trophy, if you will, and who do you think had the best showing last night?
SCHNEIDER: Well, the second tier trophy is still very close. Kerry and Edwards are pouring the resources in. Edwards got a big boost because of the "Des Moines Register" and I thought he made an effective presentation talking about traditional Democratic economic populist values, the same thing Dick Gephardt is talking about, but, again, with a newer, fresher spin on it. I thought he presented himself very well. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out of Iowa in third place, maybe even better, but certainly third, and in a strong position to become -- to grab the title that all of the other contenders are trying to grab, namely, the un-Dean, the guy who's going to stop Howard Dean.
Because in the end it'll be a struggle between Dean and somebody else, and they're all competing to be that somebody else.
O'BRIEN: Let's take a look at this race, and not just the debate, but the race in Iowa. Dean, 25 percent; Gephardt 23 percent; Kerry 15 percent; Edwards 14 percent. I should add, not sure also at 14 percent. Clark at three percent. Lieberman at three percent.
What do you think the impact of that pretty significant not sure percentage is?
SCHNEIDER: That's the vote that they're all competing for. As you can see, Dean and Gephardt locked in that varsity contest for first. Junior varsity, Kerry and Edwards, locked in a tight race for third. With 14 percent not sure, they're all trying to mobilize those voters, because in Iowa, turnout is the name of the game. This is not an election, it's a caucus. A caucus is a meeting. You have to give up an entire evening. You have to stay for a couple of hours in the freezing cold. So you need a strong commitment.
And so their original efforts are all trying to reach those not sure voters, many of them by raising doubts about Howard Dean, because he's had some stumbles recently, and saying the Democratic Party needs an alternative to Howard Dean if it's going to beat George Bush.
O'BRIEN: Still, is it a wide open race, then, or not?
SCHNEIDER: It's, the race is between Dean and somebody else. That's what it comes down to.
O'BRIEN: Always back to the Dean and the not Deans, isn't it?
Bill Schneider for us...
SCHNEIDER: The Dean and the not Dean, and there could be a knock down, drag out race between those two contenders or, if Dean wins everything, Iowa, New Hampshire, even South Carolina, on February 3, it could all be over. O'BRIEN: Bill Schneider.
Thanks a lot, Bill, as always.
SCHNEIDER: OK.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 12, 2004 - 08:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: A closer look now at the Democratic race in Iowa and beyond.
We turn to CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider, who's in Washington this morning -- good morning, Bill.
Nice to see you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: It seems like Candy Crowley's end of the day takeaway was everybody's tired, they need to go to bed.
What's the headline from this debate?
What do you take away from it?
SCHNEIDER: Well, it's still a very serious struggle for the soul of the Democratic Party between the old believers and the new believers. The old believers, led by Dick Gephardt, whose issue is the economy, the economy, the economy; and the new believers, led by Howard Dean, whose issue is the war, the war, the war.
That's the principal battle going on and that was what was happening at that debate last night, with people trying to challenge Dean's credentials, essentially saying on racial issues, on civil rights, he doesn't have a long history of association with minorities, a long history in the trenches of the Democratic Party.
O'BRIEN: Jumping on Dean, of course, is nothing new.
What made it different -- or was it this different this time around? Or was it, once again, Dean versus the not Deans, as you like to say?
SCHNEIDER: Well, we have a two tier contest going on in Iowa. It's interesting. The contest between Dean and Gephardt is what I call the varsity contest for first place. The polls show Dean and Gephardt in a very tight struggle for first place, because there are a lot of old believers in Iowa, traditional blue collar working class Democrats who are concerned about the economy, and Dean is bringing in a lot of new forces to the Democratic Party.
But there's also a second tier contest, the junior varsity, so to speak, between John Kerry and John Edwards. Edwards articulating a populist message very effectively, king of giving a younger, fresher, newer face to the Gephardt message. And Kerry, competing with Howard Dean for some of those new Democratic voters.
O'BRIEN: All right, so rate the two of them for me. Who -- I mean if I can ask you to do a prediction, who do you think walks away with that second tier trophy, if you will, and who do you think had the best showing last night?
SCHNEIDER: Well, the second tier trophy is still very close. Kerry and Edwards are pouring the resources in. Edwards got a big boost because of the "Des Moines Register" and I thought he made an effective presentation talking about traditional Democratic economic populist values, the same thing Dick Gephardt is talking about, but, again, with a newer, fresher spin on it. I thought he presented himself very well. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out of Iowa in third place, maybe even better, but certainly third, and in a strong position to become -- to grab the title that all of the other contenders are trying to grab, namely, the un-Dean, the guy who's going to stop Howard Dean.
Because in the end it'll be a struggle between Dean and somebody else, and they're all competing to be that somebody else.
O'BRIEN: Let's take a look at this race, and not just the debate, but the race in Iowa. Dean, 25 percent; Gephardt 23 percent; Kerry 15 percent; Edwards 14 percent. I should add, not sure also at 14 percent. Clark at three percent. Lieberman at three percent.
What do you think the impact of that pretty significant not sure percentage is?
SCHNEIDER: That's the vote that they're all competing for. As you can see, Dean and Gephardt locked in that varsity contest for first. Junior varsity, Kerry and Edwards, locked in a tight race for third. With 14 percent not sure, they're all trying to mobilize those voters, because in Iowa, turnout is the name of the game. This is not an election, it's a caucus. A caucus is a meeting. You have to give up an entire evening. You have to stay for a couple of hours in the freezing cold. So you need a strong commitment.
And so their original efforts are all trying to reach those not sure voters, many of them by raising doubts about Howard Dean, because he's had some stumbles recently, and saying the Democratic Party needs an alternative to Howard Dean if it's going to beat George Bush.
O'BRIEN: Still, is it a wide open race, then, or not?
SCHNEIDER: It's, the race is between Dean and somebody else. That's what it comes down to.
O'BRIEN: Always back to the Dean and the not Deans, isn't it?
Bill Schneider for us...
SCHNEIDER: The Dean and the not Dean, and there could be a knock down, drag out race between those two contenders or, if Dean wins everything, Iowa, New Hampshire, even South Carolina, on February 3, it could all be over. O'BRIEN: Bill Schneider.
Thanks a lot, Bill, as always.
SCHNEIDER: OK.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
