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American Morning

First Big Test of Year in Iowa

Aired January 19, 2004 - 07:38   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: What, then, does this all mean in the big picture? The first big test of the year, as we head toward November 10 months away. Analysis now.
The co-host of CNN's "Crossfire," James Carville, is here with me in Des Moines.

Nice to see you.

JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Thank you.

HEMMER: Good morning bright and early.

Is Howard Dean an underdog right now?

CARVILLE: I think that if he wins, he will be perceived as to have faced adversity and come back from something. I think a win is actually, oddly enough, more valuable for him tonight than it was three weeks ago...

HEMMER: Yes, I would...

CARVILLE: ... because he's actually been under par...

HEMMER: ... think that based on what we're hearing.

CARVILLE: I don't know if he will, but it would have some currency if he did win.

HEMMER: As a strategist, who do you think has run the best campaign?

CARVILLE: I think that Edwards is the best stump speaker I've ever seen run for president.

HEMMER: You think so?

CARVILLE: Yes. I don't know if it's the best campaign, but he is the best stump speaker. His stump speech I saw on C-SPAN is unbelievable. I saw him talk to a bunch of journalists who I really respect. They all concur in that opinion.

I think Kerry's got the best story, the best comeback of any of the candidates. We don't know when we get to New Hampshire, Clark and Lieberman are not here so we've got to wait and see if their decision was right to pass up Iowa. I think Howard Dean has run the most influential campaign that I've seen in the Democratic Party. He's brought enormous -- Joe Trippi (ph) and Steve McMann (ph) have done a beautiful job of bringing new people into the party and if Dean is not the nominee, how these people are dealt with and how the nominee keeps them enthusiastic is going to be a real challenge of political skill.

HEMMER: I find it surprising what you say about John Edwards, only because the reputation and the word in Iowa is that a month ago he was not that accomplished on the stump --

CARVILLE: Right.

HEMMER: ... and still needed time to really hone his sell.

CARVILLE: Bill...

HEMMER: Does he have it now?

CARVILLE: ... you know, people get better in every endeavor. We're never stuck in a place in life, and that's one of the things that, in really talented guys, get a lot better. I suspect that John Edwards is a much better candidate today than he was even a month ago, particularly three months ago. That's because he's a bright guy. He's an articulate guy and I've never seen anybody be able to weave a story and a message better together.

Look how much better John Kerry's gotten. This is a guy, if he gets the nomination, will have faced down war, cancer and political defeat and beat 'em out. This is going to be a -- this guy will have the best story of any presidential candidate that you can imagine. I'm not saying -- he's got to win it first, but he is back, he has come from almost being a joke in Washington to now leading the polls in Iowa.

So, you know, it -- this is a pretty doggone interesting race here.

HEMMER: Thirty seconds left here. Fill in the blank.

What would a blank candidacy mean to the Democrats? What would a Howard Dean candidacy mean for your party?

CARVILLE: You know, it worries me a little bit. I do a little -- I think he sometimes is, on his campaign at times has been brilliant and some of his messages have been brilliant. He says some things that bothered me. I've always doubted if he'd be our strongest candidate in the general election.

HEMMER: Howard Dean?

CARVILLE: You just asked me about Dean.

HEMMER: I'm sorry. Dick Gephardt. I apologize.

CARVILLE: A real statesman in the party. It would be a big surprise if he won Iowa. He'd obviously have a lot of momentum. He thinks he has a chance. Most people don't. He deserves a chance to make his case.

HEMMER: John Kerry?

CARVILLE: It'd be a hell of a story. He'd be tough as garlic and milk, really tough.

HEMMER: John Edwards?

CARVILLE: Tough, too.

HEMMER: Did you say tough as garlic...

CARVILLE: Garlic in a milk shake. He's strong as garlic in a milkshake.

HEMMER: Thank you.

CARVILLE: All right.

HEMMER: Appreciate your time, James Carville.

CARVILLE: You bet.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired January 19, 2004 - 07:38   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: What, then, does this all mean in the big picture? The first big test of the year, as we head toward November 10 months away. Analysis now.
The co-host of CNN's "Crossfire," James Carville, is here with me in Des Moines.

Nice to see you.

JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Thank you.

HEMMER: Good morning bright and early.

Is Howard Dean an underdog right now?

CARVILLE: I think that if he wins, he will be perceived as to have faced adversity and come back from something. I think a win is actually, oddly enough, more valuable for him tonight than it was three weeks ago...

HEMMER: Yes, I would...

CARVILLE: ... because he's actually been under par...

HEMMER: ... think that based on what we're hearing.

CARVILLE: I don't know if he will, but it would have some currency if he did win.

HEMMER: As a strategist, who do you think has run the best campaign?

CARVILLE: I think that Edwards is the best stump speaker I've ever seen run for president.

HEMMER: You think so?

CARVILLE: Yes. I don't know if it's the best campaign, but he is the best stump speaker. His stump speech I saw on C-SPAN is unbelievable. I saw him talk to a bunch of journalists who I really respect. They all concur in that opinion.

I think Kerry's got the best story, the best comeback of any of the candidates. We don't know when we get to New Hampshire, Clark and Lieberman are not here so we've got to wait and see if their decision was right to pass up Iowa. I think Howard Dean has run the most influential campaign that I've seen in the Democratic Party. He's brought enormous -- Joe Trippi (ph) and Steve McMann (ph) have done a beautiful job of bringing new people into the party and if Dean is not the nominee, how these people are dealt with and how the nominee keeps them enthusiastic is going to be a real challenge of political skill.

HEMMER: I find it surprising what you say about John Edwards, only because the reputation and the word in Iowa is that a month ago he was not that accomplished on the stump --

CARVILLE: Right.

HEMMER: ... and still needed time to really hone his sell.

CARVILLE: Bill...

HEMMER: Does he have it now?

CARVILLE: ... you know, people get better in every endeavor. We're never stuck in a place in life, and that's one of the things that, in really talented guys, get a lot better. I suspect that John Edwards is a much better candidate today than he was even a month ago, particularly three months ago. That's because he's a bright guy. He's an articulate guy and I've never seen anybody be able to weave a story and a message better together.

Look how much better John Kerry's gotten. This is a guy, if he gets the nomination, will have faced down war, cancer and political defeat and beat 'em out. This is going to be a -- this guy will have the best story of any presidential candidate that you can imagine. I'm not saying -- he's got to win it first, but he is back, he has come from almost being a joke in Washington to now leading the polls in Iowa.

So, you know, it -- this is a pretty doggone interesting race here.

HEMMER: Thirty seconds left here. Fill in the blank.

What would a blank candidacy mean to the Democrats? What would a Howard Dean candidacy mean for your party?

CARVILLE: You know, it worries me a little bit. I do a little -- I think he sometimes is, on his campaign at times has been brilliant and some of his messages have been brilliant. He says some things that bothered me. I've always doubted if he'd be our strongest candidate in the general election.

HEMMER: Howard Dean?

CARVILLE: You just asked me about Dean.

HEMMER: I'm sorry. Dick Gephardt. I apologize.

CARVILLE: A real statesman in the party. It would be a big surprise if he won Iowa. He'd obviously have a lot of momentum. He thinks he has a chance. Most people don't. He deserves a chance to make his case.

HEMMER: John Kerry?

CARVILLE: It'd be a hell of a story. He'd be tough as garlic and milk, really tough.

HEMMER: John Edwards?

CARVILLE: Tough, too.

HEMMER: Did you say tough as garlic...

CARVILLE: Garlic in a milk shake. He's strong as garlic in a milkshake.

HEMMER: Thank you.

CARVILLE: All right.

HEMMER: Appreciate your time, James Carville.

CARVILLE: You bet.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com