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Iowa Caucuses: Caucuses Begin

Aired January 19, 2004 - 12:39   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: The lead up to the Iowa caucuses tonight. Once again, too close to call among the four top Democrats who are out there campaigning the caucus meetings set to begin 7:30 p.m. Eastern, 6:30 p.m. Central, on what's expected to be a very, very cold night here in Iowa, no huge surprise. We expect to have the results before the evening is over, by all accounts.
Joining us from Des Moines, once again, the veteran Democratic strategist James Carville and our own CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield.

You want to look ahead, you want to give us your opinion what might happen tonight -- James?

JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I've spoken this morning to candidates, to pollsters, to campaign operatives, to journalists and, frankly, Wolf, I don't have the foggiest idea and neither does anybody else. I mean somehow or another people out there in television land are watching us and think that we're possessed of some information they don't have. I'm here to tell you, Mr. and Mrs. America, I don't know jack blank.

BLITZER: And, Jeff, just to be precise on this, because a lot of times when there are normal elections, not caucuses,...

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Like primaries.

BLITZER: When there are real elections,...

GREENFIELD: Yes.

BLITZER: ... one man or one person,...

GREENFIELD: Yes, yes.

BLITZER: ... one vote, we do get a sense in the early afternoon, mid-afternoon of trends that are out there based on exit polls. But in this particular case, tell our viewers we don't have a clue.

GREENFIELD: Well there are many reasons why we don't have a clue apart from the fact that we're not that smart. But if anybody is taking an exit poll, they're going to wait a long time because these caucuses don't start until 6:30 p.m. Central Time. So anybody standing out there polling viewers is going to -- of voters or caucus- goers, they'll have to wait several hours, you're right.

About this time, every journalist and operative are on the phone with each other saying where are the numbers, what do you hear, what do you know, what's the turnout? There is no turnout. It hasn't started yet, which is another -- and, Wolf, with all due respect, you know as somebody who went to school in the Midwest for four years, it may be a bitterly cold night tonight, but Iowans know that. It tends to be bitterly cold in January, and they've got Gortex, they have got clothes. They are going to come out and vote. I don't think the weather, since there's no blizzard, is really going to be that much a factor.

BLITZER: Right. I think you're probably right. Don't you agree -- James?

CARVILLE: I agree completely. It's like if it rains in Louisiana, it doesn't matter, nobody is going to call you and say well gee, I'm not coming out of the house tonight because it's raining. Nobody in Iowa and the upper Midwest is going to say they are not going to do this. But this is actually the viewer's revenge, because we don't really know anything. And we have just got to wait like everybody else. So I'm as excited as everybody else is. It should be a big night.

BLITZER: It'll be very exciting. Let's get Tony. He has an e- mail. Let's read it. "It seems to me that the Democratic Party members are not so much concerned with getting a candidate out of the Iowa caucuses that matches their belief but rather getting somebody, anybody that can beat George Bush." Jeff, how much of a factor is that going into this these caucuses based on what you're hearing from real people out here?

GREENFIELD: Well from real people, as opposed to people like us, and that's an important point.

BLITZER: Like us, that's right (ph).

GREENFIELD: Actually, I think that viewer, Tony,...

BLITZER: Yes.

GREENFIELD: ... is dead on. Often in primaries and caucus situations, electability doesn't matter that much. Four years ago the polls all showed that McCain would run stronger in the general than Bush, but Republicans felt that Bush was the real Republican, I think.

Here the concern about finding a candidate to beat George Bush, I think, is dominant. I've never seen a state where that's quite as much focused. And that's why all the candidates' messages are aimed toward electability. Dean says I can bring new people in, Gephardt says I can win the Midwest, Edward says I can win the south, Kerry says I can stand up to Bush on national security. The message is not vote for me because I'll necessarily that I'll enact these policies, but I can take this guy.

BLITZER: Is that -- do you agree with that assessment?

CARVILLE: Pretty much. I mean I might argue with it on the edges. But Democrats, and you know it's one of the reasons that I've said I had some questions about Governor Dean because of how he would match up on some of these things causes me some concern, although I have great admiration for his campaign. There's not a great ideological divide out there among these candidates. And you know it goes to New Hampshire to be a little bit different because you have General Clark and Senator Lieberman there. But people really, Democrats really think that this administration has taken America and put it on the wrong course.

BLITZER: All right. Let's take a caller. Michael in Ohio wants to weigh in. Go ahead -- Michael.

CALLER: Yes. Mr. Carville, a very...

CARVILLE: Yes -- sir.

CALLER: ... much a pleasure to talk with you.

CARVILLE: Thank you.

CALLER: Since there's no real reason for Republicans to caucus, do you see many Republicans going to the Democratic caucuses to maybe skew the results in favor of Dean who most people think is a weaker opponent for Bush?

CARVILLE: You know, I don't think so. I don't -- I don't have any evidence to back it up. But in general, that kind of stuff doesn't happen. And if anybody got caught, you know, organizing that kind of mischief, it would be pretty embarrassing. And people generally are not that well motivated or organized to do something like that. I can't tell you that it won't happen in some instances, but I really doubt that it will be a very large effort to do something like that.

BLITZER: Republicans, if they wanted to, and there's no indication that this is going to happen given the rules of what's going on, they could show up at a caucus tonight and simply register as a Democrat and participate. And then a week later, go back and register as a Republican, but there's no indication that's...

CARVILLE: Right (ph).

GREENFIELD: We see that -- we see that in primary states. I think John McCain won Michigan in part because certainly a lot of Independents and even some Democrats voted for him. But by and -- but here, no.

CARVILLE: McCain had an appealing message to Independents than he did to some Democrats. And you know most of these people know each other. And they kind of know the Republican, you know, precinct chairman. So if he shows up, it means the guy is going to be in a kind of a dangerous situation there among all these Democrats.

GREENFIELD: Well, Wolf, if I can just footnote this, when we talk about turnout, which is one another of those mind bending cliches, the question we're going to be looking at tonight is people who haven't participated in caucuses before and that may delay this count. If the Dean forces have done what they say they're going to do, they're going to turn out some first time caucus goers who are not familiar to those people. We may even see some challenges in this -- in these precinct offices saying who are you, where do you live?

BLITZER: All right. Stand by for a second and we're going to take a quick break. We have much more to talk about with James Carville and Jeff Greenfield. They're also anxious to answer more of your questions. Give us a call or e-mail us right now. I'm also going to ask James Carville if he wants to remind our viewers where Bill Clinton was at this point in 1992 on the day of Iowa and the Iowa caucuses.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Democratic strategist James Carville, the co-host of "CROSSFIRE," our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield, not the co-host of "CROSSFIRE," they're rejoining us.

Marcie in New York has a question. Go ahead -- Marcie.

CALLER: How do the caucuses work, actually? Where do the delegates come from? What actually happens tonight? Thank you.

BLITZER: All right, that's a good -- that's a good question. If you can explain that, Jeff, in about 30, 40 seconds, we'll be grateful to you.

GREENFIELD: This is the -- this is the cliff notes version because the real version takes about three hours. Caucus-goers, registered Democrats or people who register at the caucuses show up 6:30 Central Time. There's a half hour of preliminaries. People are allowed to speak on behalf of their candidates. And then literally people get up and move to different corners of a room in the first stage to say who you are for.

If you don't have 15 percent of the people at that caucus, you are what is called not viable. And everybody has a half hour to regroup. You can stay uncommitted. You can join with other groups. And at the end of that, through a formula that I'm not going to inflict on you, they call those results in to the state Democratic Party that figures out a percentage of how strong each candidate is. And that's what's reported and that's how we're going to tell you who won or lost.

These are not raw numbers. There are no voters tonight. There are no votes. There are caucus-goers and percentages. It's a very complicated procedure. But that's what you'll be hearing tonight...

BLITZER: All right.

GREENFIELD: ... what percent of the -- of the -- of the Democratic caucus-goers have decided to go for a, b, c or d.

BLITZER: A good explanation by Jeff.

Bob in Arkansas sends us this e-mail. Let me read it. "The caucuses appear to be just another spin-off from the TV reality show "Survivor," eventually everyone will be voted off and we will be stuck with a Republican to mess things up for another four years." Sounds like someone you know, Bob in Arkansas?

CARVILLE: I don't know no Bobs in Arkansas, but it sounds like somebody I would know. It's a pretty funny e-mail.

BLITZER: Remind our viewers 12 years ago at this point in the run for the White House where Bill Clinton stood in trying to get the Democratic presidential nomination?

CARVILLE: Well you have to remember Iowa was not contestant (ph) to Senator Harkin...

BLITZER: Right.

CARVILLE: ... was running for president and everybody wisely...

BLITZER: But at this point you didn't think it was a done deal for Bill Clinton?

CARVILLE: No, no, no. We were getting hit from, you know, Jennifer Flowers, to the draft, to everything else. I mean we were under pretty good siege then. And you know (UNINTELLIGIBLE) was starting to move out -- I mean move up and the race was starting to change. It was a nonevent. It's rare that it happens. But you had a -- you actually had a candidate from Iowa which makes it a lot different. And it is going to be interesting.

Look, it's very interesting, I mean the General Clark's decision not to compete here. One of the things that a lot of people are talking about, which I think is an interesting question, if John Edwards, as I suspect he will, does well tonight in Iowa, does he bypass New Hampshire and go to South Carolina where he's always maintained a healthy standing in the polls? I don't know.

But tonight is going to be a lot of -- this is going to be an exciting night. And there are going to be a lot of unanswered questions going in and a lot of what we like to do, a ton of, particularly Jeff and I, and that's raw speculation.

BLITZER: We have an e-mail from -- we have an another e-mail...

GREENFIELD: Speak for yourself, James.

BLITZER: ... for you, Jeff, from Peru in Indiana. "Why do candidates spend their money in Iowa and New Hampshire instead of states where they can reach more people such as California and New York? That would give them a better chance to win the nomination?" A fair question.

GREENFIELD: It is a fair question. Here is the problem. First, because of the emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire, we've never had a candidate who skipped both states and even won a nomination. Al Gore tried to do that in 1988 to jumpstart in the South. It didn't work. Second, the very fact that these are small states means even with the wild evasion of the so-called spending caps, the limits in the state, nobody follows them, you can get more bang for the buck in Iowa and New Hampshire on television. If you tried to launch a campaign in California and New York, both states hold their primaries the same day, March 2, along with Ohio and I think eight other states, you need about, I don't know, $30 million or $40 million in the bank, something like that, James, to compete.

CARVILLE: Right.

GREENFIELD: So it's just easier here. And there's just too much...

CARVILLE: The real reason that they spend this money was -- it was answered at 801, the restaurant last night, where you were there, Jeff was there, I was there, everybody in the "New York Times" there, Tim Russert (ph) was there, Tom Brokaw was there, George Stephanopoulos was there,...

BLITZER: It's a -- it's a steakhouse here in Des Moines.

CARVILLE: It's a steakhouse in Des Moines. The reason that they spend money is we're all here reporting what happens and everybody in California and New York and other states are going to see this. So it is, you know, when people vote, then the press tends to report it. And when they report it, it brings out. But the reason that...

BLITZER: It becomes a -- it becomes a circle then.

CARVILLE: The reason they spend so much money was at this expensive steakhouse in downtown Des Moines.

BLITZER: Wait a second, we're all out of time, but did you have a good meal?

CARVILLE: I did have a good meal.

BLITZER: Did you have a good mean?

GREENFIELD: I had a good meal and it reminded me of New York, especially the prices.

BLITZER: All right, we're going to leave it right there. But both of you are going to be with us throughout the day, throughout the night here on CNN. Thanks to James Carville, you've got a special "CROSSFIRE" coming up at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Is that right?

CARVILLE: We'll be smoking. We'll be -- I don't know what we're going to argue about, but we'll think of something between now and 4:30 Eastern.

BLITZER: Something.

Thanks to both of you for joining us.

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